Lars
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Posts posted by Lars
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July
3) They're unsure about the ground with the weather as it is and want to leave their options open. Well done Nick :okWhen a horse is entered into several races over a few days, it indicates one of two things. 1) They want to get the horse a run or two to get it's mark down 2) The horse is fancied to win and whatever race it goes into, it should do the biz. A lot of the time it is because the horse is fancied to win. Pity i didn't see that post earlier, cos i would have backed it today. Well done Nick, good shout. -
Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 13th July Great stuff with Gracias Directa, Steve. German horses were always so underrated in the market, looks like that will be changing soon enough though, unfortunately!
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 1st July 2012 Novellist's last run
He hasn't exactly beaten a great deal by the looks, although in his second start he beat a subsequent German Group 3 winner by six lengths. The way he quickens suggests he might be very useful (possible Arc contender) and Germany really do seem to have improved in the training ranks over recent seasons, especially with winning the Arc last year and having a Royal Ascot winner this time around. Hopefully he'll win doing handstands today and we can see him against some of our lot at some stage. -
Re: Picture Dealer ride
I think to suggest Tom wanted to win the race is a bit optimistic, as he'd have at least hit the horse with the whip/showed any urgency whatsoever. There was also some pretty erratic market activity pre-race, that would have looked alarming in most instances. Quotes stolen from few people on Twitter.I suppose if you asked Tom he wouldn't be very happy with the ride either but to suggest that the stewards should be getting involved is way over the top. In almost every race there are hard luck stories & yes this looked quite bad but earlier on the card William Buick on Maxentius managed to get himself stuck behind other runners in a four horse race. Fortunately a gap appeared & he got through on the rail & won going away in the end but it happens & I'm sure if you could go back Tom would ride it differently. By the way I was actually there & was also on Picture Dealer so it cost my pocket as well but then I've made a few mistakes in my time, haven't we all? Rio.drifted from 2.6 to 3.8 on the off, never went below 2.56 in running.Gary Moore yard exchange drifters and held up in running: 5-149 3.36% ROI -82% @ bfsp Nov 2011 to mid June 2012
Contrast the efforts in the final furlong from Ryan Moore on his previous outing (when he had the race in the bag anyway, given a hit with the whip etc) and today when Queally showed a distinct lack of urgency at any point throughout the race. I'm not accusing Tom of anything, especially when he's riding for his future father in-law but incidents like this should at least be looked at by the Stewards, Betting Patterns analysed as hands and heels riding + beaten by a nose, really shouldn't be happening without questions being asked. Drifters happen, jockey's making errors happen, but the two intertwining? Hmm. Stewards should at least be enquiring, it's there job to do just that. It wasn't. [To note, I didn't even play in this race]same trainer,same period,exchange backed and led or prominent 16-76 21.05% neutral rtn at bfsp but +32% if on at 11am -
Re: Picture Dealer ride Absolutely bewildering that the stewards haven't taken any action (or so it seems) with this ride. Has to be seen to be believed.
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Re: FLAT RACING FRI 29TH JUNE DARING INDIAN (20:40) has switched to the Tom Dascombe stable from Ian Williams and that move means there’s less guessing regarding how well he’s going to perform (horses from Williams yard spring to life at seemingly random intervals) and although this one has to come back from a 68 day break, he’s joined a yard in-form and with Fallon booked, it should signal a positive effort and a return to something akin to his best. He showed decent form in handicaps for Ian Williams during the latter part of 2011, winning a race that wasn’t run at a true pace at Wolverhampton off this mark of 71. I’ve always felt that he’s needed a true pace to be seen at his absolute best so it’s fair to say I chalked that effort up a few lbs to win in those circumstances. He hasn’t shown his best subsequently, but was entitled to need the outing on his first start in 2012 before meeting trouble at Pontefract, when weak in the market (stayed on steadily down the outside). He seemed to get stuck in the mud last time out and due to those three efforts; ones I think are perfectly excusable for one reason or another, he’s now become handicapped to strike again. I’ve always thought him capable of performances rated in the 80’s and now he’s joined a yard in-form (15% strike-rate through June, five of them winners coming in the past two weeks). The race is likely to be run at a true pace which should obviously suit, he’s the yard’s only runner at the track today and will be capable of better at some stage I’m sure, so at these odds of 20/1, I’m willing to chance my arm to the usual stakes. Bets 20:40 Newmarket – Daring Indian; 2pts @ 20/1 William Hill (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 27th June 2012 It may look a bit obvious but CHORAL BEE (18:10) should have an outstanding chance now upped to a trip that she’s certainly bred to appreciate and has always looked like a middle-distance handicapper in the making. Now tackling that trip in this grade, you’d have to be extremely disappointing if she didn’t improve a fair bit past this mark of 57. She’s related to plenty of very decent middle-distance horses, including one who was placed in the Melbourne Cup, so she’s certainly bred for this trip today. Her four starts to date have suggested she’d come into her own in handicaps. That’s exactly what occurred last time when dropped in trip (had shaped OK over 10f on her final start in a Maiden) to a mile. She stuck to her task well that day, not really showing the requisite speed to be a mile specialist but looking like an obvious candidate for a step up in distance. She goes a whole 4f up in trip today but looks to need it and I feel she should be much shorter than her current odds suggests. She showed plenty last time, will appreciate the step up in trip, along with the ground continuing to dry and she seemed to enjoy the Bath track last time, which is an obvious plus. Her sire has a record of 4/20 at Bath and Henry Candy has a 5/26 at this course, so there are plenty of stats to suggest that this is the place for her to be running and in a weak enough race, she should take plenty of beating. As always, there’s always potential for a big handicap improver but I think I’ve found that horse in Choral Bee and I’d have expected her to be around the 3/1 mark, so looks a big price at her current odds. RED SENOR (19:40) has had plenty of excuses since winning (a poor) maiden on seasonal reappearance and is attractively priced to invest in today, especially as if more goes his way than on previous occasions, he’ll go extremely close. He showed promise on all three juvenile starts (without winning), coming up against some fair types in maiden races, but was put away after July 2011 and wasn’t seen until this March. He was reported to have strengthened up over the winter and won a poor maiden over 5f comfortably, doing most of the work on the bit and winning well. That race hasn’t worked out with zero winners subsequently but Red Senor has proved that his current handicap mark is far from unfair. His handicap debut at Nottingham was full of promise, probably inconvenienced by the fact he had to race up the centre (most of the actual was stands side) before meeting trouble on his penultimate start at Windsor, where he’d have finished much closer had he not suffered interference. His last start is perfectly excusable too, racing very close to a hot pace on soft ground, with hold-up horses filling the first two places. It was understandable that he couldn’t finish off his race that day. He may just be a horse that is constantly unlucky but the smaller field today won’t harm his chances in that regard and he’s been dropped another 1lb in the handicap, which could only benefit his chances. The favourite could be a tough nut to crack as she looks to be going the right way but Red Senor has shown enough in the past to suggest a mark in the 80’s is far from a pipe dream and granted better luck in-running or none of suicidal tactics that ensued last time, then he’s more a 5/1 chance in my book and is worthy of a bet at these odds. MADAME FEU (21:10) looks in dire need of 6f after a promising enough handicap debut over the minimum trip and granted the extra distance here today, she looks capable of a bit better at a low grade. Her two best efforts have been at this Bath track, including on her latest start. She was outpaced early on but finished the race well enough to be 4th, suggesting that a step up to further wouldn’t go amiss. This is corroborated by her pedigree, where she’s related to three winners at 6f+. That race was only modest but the form hasn’t worked out badly, with the winner getting in front again and the placed horses running to a similar level again since. Madame Feu obviously acts here at Bath which is a big plus and the fact that she has the pedigree for 6f, alongside the running style, suggests that this contest will be ideal. She is no world-beater but has claims to be rated around the mid-60’s and shouldn’t be far away at all. 7/1 is a fair price, as I’d say she should be around the 5/1 mark and is worth the usual stake. No further rain (none forecast) would enhance her chances. Bets 18:10 Bath - Choral Bee; 3pts @ 13/2 BetVictor (bog) 19:40 Bath – Red Senor; 2pts @ 13/2 BetVictor, William Hill (bog) 21:10 Bath – Madame Feu; 2pts @ 15/2 Betfred (bog)
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Re: Campbell Gillies Dead
I think it's best off waiting until the facts become clear (none really have apart from the fact there was an incident in a swimming pool) before you start blaming 'Kavos Culture' and the like. A bit untimely. RIP CampbellProbably not the time to say it - but Kavos, Magaluf culture... Have been there and done it but it's out of control.... It could have nothing to do with it and it's not the point anyway I guess. Hideous news either way and thoughts are with his friends and family. RIP Sir...:( -
Re: Flat Racing ~ Mon 25th
Did the business after being well-backed, nicely done :ok6.10 Windsor - 2pts win Livia's Dream @ 15/2 (VC) Ed Walker's filly went in my notebook after her debut at Doncaster when beaten 2l into 3rd. She travelled up quite nicely but was short of room before keeping on nicely at the death. The winner is now rated 79 and the runner-up 88 so her mark of 68 looks very fair if she can reproduce that sort of form. I expected better next time out but she was outpaced before keeping on again over 7f at Folkestone. She shaped very much like further would suit on those two runs but bombed out next time at Nottingham over a mile. Not sure why but the yard were going slowly that month so perhaps that's a valid excuse. She returns this season with the yard going very well and is stepped up to 1m2f which should suit. William Buick is on board, who is on fire at the minute, and he is 3-4 riding for Walker. -
Re: Flat Racing ~ Mon 25th HEYWARD GIRL (19:10) shaped well in a much better race than the one she contests tonight on her first start in 2012 and although not seen for 68 days subsequently, hopefully that will be more to do with the ground being soft (which wouldn’t suit considering Bertolini progeny have an appalling record on soft surfaces) rather than any physical problem with her. If she’s ready to roll then she has a decent chance from the plum draw. She possessed some strong juvenile form, finishing a half-length 2nd to Best Terms, who was runner-up at Royal Ascot, and also two victories over 6f last year. Both of those came from the front and she possesses really good early toe, which is often beneficial around Windsor as I’ve always got the impression that it suits front-runners when the ground is good or better over sprint distances. There isn’t a huge amount of pace in this race (Marygold has front-run before) so I’m expecting that Heyward Girl should get a fairly easy time of it at the head of affairs, important for a horse of her type. A plum draw in stall 1 really will help in this regard, and the 15.6% strike-rate from the inside stall over 6f here at Windsor is an obvious plus. The race that the selection made her debut 2012 start was a good one, it being a 0-100 handicap and Heyward Girl again showing good speed early on, but she was probably just a little bit outclassed in that sort of race. She was only beaten 4.5 lengths though and that was a fair effort. There has to be some slight concerns that she hasn’t been seen since but 68 days isn’t a huge absence and she did win her maiden coming off an absence, so it might not be a big factor anyway. Robert Eddery yard are amongst the winners and I had Heyward Girl priced around the 7/1 mark, so she’s worthy of a small play here today at these odds. She could well be difficult to peg back, with the likely drying ground considerably in her favour. Bets 19:10 Windsor – Heyward Girl; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog)
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday 23rd June GRAMERCY (16:25) has long been talked up as a likely winner of this sort of contest by previous connections and he ran with credit in last year’s renewal, that coming on seasonal reappearance. Now with a different yard and a run under his belt, one that should have got him cherry ripe for this race, he ought to go well as he has plenty to suit. A multiple winner over 6f, he’s perfectly at home around Ascot and brings to the table a victory (off a 7lb lower mark) over this C&D and a cracking effort over 7f here last year, when travelling supremely well but just losing out to a very creditable winner in Smarty Socks (who carries on improving). On that evidence a strongly run 6f here at Ascot will be ideal, as it’ll give him plenty of chance to travel sweetly into the race off a brisk pace. His seasonal reappearance effort should be ignored completely, especially as it came over 5f, an inadequate trip for him and he struggled to ever land a blow, especially as he was held-up quite far off the pace and wasn’t given a hard-time. He’s been dropped 2lbs for that and a mark of 99 looks perfectly workable, especially as on occasions he’s shaped as if Group wins weren’t too optimistic. The booking of Johnny Murtagh is a big positive, especially in this race as he’s won the last two renewals and could have presumably ridden a couple of the Irish contingent this year, so his presence is encouraging. With handicaps of this type, draw/pace bias is difficult to know until they actually run the race but the price of Gramercy is what makes it appealing, namely that it’s a good few points over what I was expecting, as I feel he’s worthy of support up until the 10/1 mark. Granted a strong pace to track, he ought to go well. Bets 16:25 Ascot – Gramercy; 2pts @ 20/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Although the form of his maiden is hardly spellbinding and he’s a little bit to find on the figures with some of these, YAZDI (17:00) looks set for a big run in a race where they’ll be an emphasis on stamina, given 1m4f looked inadequate for him when winning last time out. The booking of Frankie Dettori for Brian Meehan is interesting in itself and with the ground unlikely to be an issue, I think he should be even shorter than his current single-figure price. Twice raced, not seen as a juvenile and making his debut over 10f at Newmarket. Yazdi finished a 4 length third, looking woefully outpaced through most of the contest before staying on really nicely under considerate enough handling. That race has worked out well with the winner narrowly touched off in the Chester Vase, the runner-up is an 8/1 chance for the earlier King Edward VII whilst the 5th is likely to be a solid handicapper rated in the 90’s before too long. It was a decent contest and the market knew this for Yazdi’s last outing, sent off a 2/5 chance. That was on softer ground and he yet again shaped as if further would suit, taking a little while to get into top gear but eventually pulling seven lengths clear. That race wasn’t a great one but it was the manner in victory which was more taking, especially for a 2 mile contest for three year-olds. He looks obviously suited to such a stamina test having taken his time to fully accelerate over 1m4f and a stamina test looks the best port of call (has some winners over fences in his bloodline) right now and it is probably a decent time to catch him in these sorts of races, especially facing rivals who might not handle the distance quite yet. Frankie Dettori is quite a rare booking for the yard in recent times and he has a fair 9/46 record since the beginning of 2009, he’s is certainly more positive than the usual Meehan affair of Shane Kelly or Martin Dwyer. The ground isn’t an issue, this looks a weak contest and Yazdi looks ideally suited for the step up in trip. He should be closer to the 7/2 mark than his current price and I have him as a clear favourite in this race. There’s such an obvious bet for this wide-open (on paper) handicap in my view that it beggars belief that it isn’t much shorter. DECENT FELLA (17:35) has plenty in his favour today, not least that the 265 day absence should be a help rather than a hindrance and this race looks to have been the plan all along, so he’s more than capable of playing a big part in a race in which he went very close in last year. The selection runs all his best races fresh, seen when landing a very competitive Newmarket handicap on his reappearance effort last year. That race has thrown up many horses who’ve proved that they are top handicappers and it just shows that the selection is perfectly capable of running a huge race on seasonal debut. He wasn’t quite seen to best effect in subsequent starts last year, although his run in last year’s renewal gives us plenty of hope that he’ll go even better this time around. He travelled supremely well on the soft ground but could only manage 4th, 1.5 lengths behind the winner. That was off a 6lbs lower mark but there’s plenty to suggest that Decent Fella is continuing to improving, his win at Goodwood (again, coming off a short absence) from a rating of 93 (some fair sorts in behind) providing evidence of this. Although showing little on his next start, the winter break should have done him good and as emphasised throughout, there should be little to fear regarding the absence. Andrew Balding is a dab hand at getting them fit regardless and all looks set for a big run today. There should be no issues regarding ground, the track and the fact that he’s had a breathing operation can only help (does sometime finish his races off a little tamely). He should be closer to the 9/1 mark in my book and with the draw in 28 looking ideal, it’s only the fact that it’s traditionally such a competitive race that is stopping me from getting seriously involved. The usual stakes will suffice. Bets 17:00 Ascot – Yazdi; 2pts @ 6/1 Stan James 17:35 Ascot – Decent Fella; 2pts @ 20/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June KAILANI (15:05) didn’t really live up to expectations in the Oaks when behind a few of these but she was unsuited by the quick ground alongside the unique nature of Epsom itself. With rain expected, a more conventional track in front of her and likely more positive tactics employed, she looks a good bet to overturn the last time out form of the likes of The Fugue and Shirocco Star. She’s a thrice raced filly who won well in an average Yarmouth maiden last season on her only start in 2011, before reappearing in fine style at Newmarket in the listed Pretty Polly Stakes. She won by 7 lengths on the soft ground and although she may have been flattered a little bit with the margin of victory, she definitely looked a filly to continue to improve, especially when upped further in distance. Unsurprisingly she was supplemented for the Oaks on the back of that performance but she didn’t make much of an impression, finishing 7th, beaten six lengths. They went no pace that day, so she was obviously going to struggle due to being held-up and was hampered quite badly early on too. It was a run easy to excuse for a whole number of reasons and she returns here looking underestimated in the market. The rain forecast will definitely suit, but even if it doesn’t then I don’t necessarily think that would be the end of her chances, she’ll unlikely encounter such traffic problems and I can’t imagine such hold-up tactics being employed again anyway. She’s a bit unproven at this 1m4f trip but shapes as if she’ll stay, and at these sorts of prices, is well worth a bet. I have her at around a 5/1 chance and it is fair to say that if she came here without having run in the Oaks, then she could well have been that sort of price today. The Fugue has a solid form chance but won’t be ideally suited by rain and I’m not entirely convinced she’ll see out a testing 1m4f quite as well as people think. With all this in mind, Kailani is a nice enough bet, especially so if the rain does fall. ENERGIZER (17:00) is hilariously overpriced, most likely due to it being trained in Germany and there being a couple in this race who have big reputations to live up to. I’m not particularly afraid of anything in this contest and with the step up in trip likely to suit the foreign challenger, he has every chance in this Group 3 contest. He’s fairly lightly-raced, having won a listed event on debut before disappointing in his next two juvenile starts. He’s certainly improved for the winter though (as many out of Monsun do), narrowly defeated in a Group 3 on seasonal reappearance (stayed on strongly, got going too late) before a similar scenario occurred in the German 2000 Guineas, again getting going too late on. Although there’s plenty of speed on his dam’s side, he looks likely to appreciate the step up to 1m2f and with his sire’s progeny usually benefitting from middle-distances, further improvement looks possible. He’s the highest rated in the field and it’s surprising that he’s been priced up at these double figure odds. True, there are the likes of Starboard and Tales of Grimm, who are being touted as Group animals and will likely show this sort of form in time, but Energizer is almost double the price it should be. His German 2000 Guineas form is hardly disrespectful, he shapes as if the step up in trip will suit and won’t mind the rain that’s forecast. He isn’t the most likely winner but is a fair value bet at double figure odds. ANOMALY (17:35) could be seriously well-handicapped after winning his maiden comfortably at Newmarket, with the form of that race already receiving a significant boost. The Godolphin trained runner has faced some quite smart animals when running in maidens, bumping into Cubanita on his second start (who has proved herself to be above average) before winning his third start in decent fashion. He was 4.25 lengths clear of 2nd and a further 7 clear of the horse in 3rd, who looks a very interesting middle-distance prospect having won last week. It was certainly a very interesting performance by the selection, given he seems to have an action that may be suited to softer ground, but handled the quicker surface with aplomb. With previous soft ground form, there should be no problems however the ground ends up and I do think there’s plenty of progression still to come from this horse. He looks ideally suited to the step up to middle distances given his running style, was considered for the Derby at one stage and looks like an animal that could have a three figure rating not before long. This of course is a competitive heat, with plenty others who could well improve far past their current rating, but it’s difficult to ignore the chances of Anomaly here. My one main concern would be that his sire only has a 3.8% strike-rate at Ascot, but one of those winners was Immortal Verse in Group Company and plenty of his progeny have run well in big races here, so perhaps they win if good enough. With Silvestre De Sousa likely to be riding with plenty of confidence after a three-timer at Kempton last night, Anomaly is worth backing up until the 6/1 mark. Bets 15:05 Ascot – Kailani; 2pts @ 17/2 BetVictor (bog) 17:00 Ascot – Energizer; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog) 17:35 Ascot – Anomaly; 2pts @ 9/1 Betfred, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Software for racing!
Don't think so, would say you could upload to an external hosting site (like mediafire or something) and people can download it from there...As long as it takes you to type the name of the horse and the stake/odds/result - does everything else for you. Only got backs set up but wouldn't take long for me to adjust it to lays... Anyway I/anyone can upload Excel files on here BH/Mowgli/Lars/Trotter/Russ anyone?! -
Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 ~ Tuesday 19th June SPICE FAIR (17:00) needs to bounce back after a dismal showing last time but that effort was too bad to be true and there was likely some kind of physical problem. With the Mark Usher yard back amongst the winners after a cold-spell, it could mean that the stable are in more healthy shape and if so, then a back to form Spice Fair should be capable of running a big race with the contest likely to pan out favourably. He improved throughout 2011, starting the season from a rating of 67 and closing the year rated 85. He always shaped that a staying race run at a strong pace would be ideal, with efforts over two miles at Ascot and Kempton suggesting this. He travels really well into his races and with his hold-up style, obviously needs the leaders to come back to him. With this being a 20 runner contest and having plenty of pace-angles, it’s a fair shout that they’ll go a decent clip, which is of course ideal with his way of running. His stamina for the extra four furlongs is untested but he stays two miles well and as previously stated, he’s consistently shaped that he’d be worth a try at this sort of distance (when showing a respectable level of form, of course). Although he’ll need to bounce back after his last start, the form he showed on seasonal reappearance when unlucky in-running would put him in the mix, even though he’s 4lbs higher and I’d be surprised if there wasn’t more to come from him. Spice Fair looks capable of further improvement now upped in trip and with a strongly run race ideal for his way of running, alongside Jimmy Fortune retaking the ride (1/1 on him), then I’ve every hope of outrunning his current price-tag significantly. I must be missing something blatantly obvious here but DYLANBURU (17:35) would go extremely close if replicating the form of his listed second in Ireland back in May and with that race won by what could be a Group class performer, Dylanburu won’t be far away if running to that level once again. He’s had four starts to date, the first a promising run behind Dawn Approach (favourite for the Coventry) before getting off the mark in a Dundalk maiden. That was only a four runner race but the 2nd and 3rd have both won since, so it wasn’t an horrendous contest by any stretch of the imagination. Pitched into a heavy ground race next time up, he failed to handle the ground and finished last, an effort that is obviously excusable. That might cause a question mark for today if conditions are slow but they’ll be nothing like the conditions he faced that day and he’s definitely worth a chance on more respectable softer conditions. As previously mentioned, his second behind Mick Channon’s Cay Verde signalled a return to form, alongside the fact that he’s proved himself that more than capable of going very close at a decent grade. He stayed on really nicely and the 4th home in that contest has gone on to finish in the places in a listed race, so hardly disgraceful form. Dylanburu is competitive priced at double figure odds (I have him at around the 7/1 mark) and although the current Hannon favourite might be a notch better than this grade, so might Dylanburu and there’s value in his current odds. Bets 17:00 Ascot – Spice Fair; 2pts @ 33/1 BetVictor (bog) 17:35 Ascot – Dylanburu; 2pts @ 10/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing: Sat 16th June
Had seen your post but not the result, saw you'd posted and thought to myself... "God no, he's not fluked another 100/1 winner has he?" :lol Nice return for you nonetheless!:loon -
Re: Flat Racing Monday 11th June I aren't bothering with a proper full post like I usually do as I've got a bit of "cba"-itis with Racing at the moment (sure that'll change before Royal Ascot) but I did think that My Arch (19:20 Pontefract) was interesting. His first two starts this season were hardly horrific but has been dropped 6lbs since then, making him look on an appealing mark. His effort last time was tame on a bare glance at the formbook but he was given a fairly tender ride in rear, alongside the fact that it came on ground that was likely too quick for him, over a trip on the sharp side. Returns to Pontefract today where he was a winner over 1f further last year off a 6lb higher mark. It may just be that they aim for that race again in 11 days time but the booking of Tom Queally (5/21 for Ollie Pears since Jan 2009) today is an obvious positive and with any further rain in the area a plus, he's worthy of a small bet at the current 10/1 mark. 19:20 Pontefract - My Arch; 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing - Friday 8th June AZRAEL (15:55) had been in decent form this season prior to a seemingly lifeless effort at Haydock 13 days ago. However, the ground was riding so firm that day that it’s excusable (never really travelled) and the step back up in trip to 7f, alongside the likely ease in the ground all mean he’s capable of improving on his current handicap rating of 83. He was a promising juvenile, running with credit in a Group 3 contest to conclude his two year-old campaign and although his efforts last season weren’t that great, it did mean that he fell in the handicap somewhat and to be fair, his 3 year old season only lasted until July in the first place. He returned in much better form this season, going well for a long way on seasonal reappearance at Doncaster over this 7f, just tiring in the final furlong before another solid effort, this time over 6f at the same venue. He shaped that day that he really needed the extra furlong and also emphasised the fact that he does handle a bit of cut, which bodes well for today. On the basis of that run, he’s more than capable of playing a hand in this race especially given how he’s 1lb lower. With a line through his last start at Haydock, he’s overpriced here today on the basis of his two previous efforts in 2012. The easier conditions should suit, as he has bits and pieces of form to suggest that he’ll go on it, looks capable of improvement given that he’s only four and a rating in the 90’s is far from wishful thinking. He’s overpriced at these double figure odds. SILVERY MOON (19:45) was a confident selection of mine two starts ago and I was right in the sense that he’d run a big race but unfortunately he just ran into a very well-treated rival (who went on to frank the form at a higher level). Conditions at Doncaster will definitely suit and he has no issues with the straight, galloping track and the soft conditions will be ideal, so I’m expecting another big effort. A big imposing type, he finally started to mature physically and won an Ayr handicap off a mark of 77 back in September when encountering softer conditions. He won that day with plenty in hand (idled) and looked capable of becoming an above-average handicapper when encountering suitable conditions. He came on for his seasonal reappearance when running big races at Ripon on his last two starts. The first I’ve already mentioned, coming clear of third but just running into the improving Memory Cloth. The latter came on ground that wasn’t quite as soft, which at this competitive level he might not quite get away with and I’m convinced he’s the sort of horse who needs a big field and strong pace to show his best. I don’t quite think the more positive front-running tactics suited and although his 3rd place was respectable, I think he has every chance to reverse the form with Honeymead. Doncaster as a track should suit, having had previous form at the vaguely similar Redcar. A horse with such a pronounced, round-action needs soft ground and he’ll get that today with all the rain around. This is a competitive race but Silvery Moon has every chance of being rated 10lbs higher than his current mark when encountering more testing conditions and with that likely, ranks as a decent bet. Bets 15:55 Newmarket – Azrael; 1pt @ 16/1 BetVictor, William Hill (bog) 19:45 Doncaster – Silvery Moon; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 5th June LADY ROYALE (15:45) hasn’t been at her best since winning at Ripon last August but she’s now 1lb lower in the weights than she was that day and has the blinkers reapplied, which usually means she runs about 10lbs better than without them. That, alongside conditions today being likely to suit alongside a likely strong pace means that she’s overpriced in this contest. Like many from this sire, she’s a speedy type who came to hand early, but showed plenty of promise last season when the blinkers were reapplied, winning off ratings of 75 and 81. She looked like a horse who might be able to hack it off a bit higher than that but lost her way somewhat towards the end of the season, although her last run of the season in a big-field York handicap wasn’t completely devoid of promise, meeting traffic problems and she’d have definitely finished closer had it not being for them. She’s ran twice in 2012, her seasonal reappearance coming without any sort of headgear over 6f (which is a little far for her) on unsuitably soft ground, it’s no surprise that she was well-beaten. Lady Royale was last seen at Wolverhampton when sporting cheekpieces and she was beaten 5 lengths. This obviously doesn’t make her of interest on a bare form perspective but she was dropped in from a wide draw and held-up, which I don’t think she enjoys at all and she was hardly given a tough time when she was obviously not going to win. That being so, she’s now of more interest with blinkers reapplied. All three of her victories have come with this headgear and last season, she improved around 9lbs or so for the switch from cheekpieces to blinkers (wasn’t the first time she’d worn them) so there’s every chance that could happen again today, especially if given a more positive ride. Decent ground and a strong pace are Lady Royale’s want, she’ll get that today and with both her rider and trainer in really good form at the moment, she’s ridiculously overpriced at these sorts of odds. It may be that she hasn’t trained on or that she hasn’t yet come to hand this season, but she’s more than capable of going very close if putting it altogether today, which I think is plausible given she’ll have the race run to suit, with blinkers back on and has fallen to a workable mark. Bets 15:45 Redcar – Lady Royale; 2pts @ 28/1 BetVictor, Betfred (bog)
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Re: Flat racing 4th June
Glad you've tipped up Royal Box today as well Lars mate' date=' respect your selections a lot so it gives me a bit more confidence about what I thought may have been a silly pick for my BBOTD today. It seemed to be subject to a major market move lto as well with the early Bet365 prices, was forecast around 20/1 I think and started trading at 3/1 favourite although it drifted out majorly on course and went off at 14/1 and was never involved. Be interesting to see how it runs today.[/quote'] Ground has really come in it's favour now, didn't expect it to be so soft so we should have every chance really. Hopefully, fingers crossed there's no more non-runners. Good luck! -
Re: Flat racing 4th June GOLD RULES (16:05) has stamina to prove over this extended 1m3f but has often shown in the past that he has the potential to stay a bit further than the 1m2f he’s generally being campaigned at. The occasions he’s ran at this sort of trip have come in very competitive heats and off a mark that he definitely has the potential to run a big race from, is worthy of a chance with stronger handling taking over for the first time in a little while. He’s a winner over 1m2f with Jeremy Noseda, that coming off a rating of 85. That was back in 2010 but he has shown signs of life for current connections, not least on his penultimate start in July 2011, where he finished extremely well over 1m2f. That signified to me that he was more than capable of picking up a race off this kind of rating. He must have had some issues as he’s only been seen once since, that was at Beverley where he was entitled to need the run, alongside the fact it was over an inadequate trip of a mile and wasn’t given a tough time of it by any stretch of the imagination. That run will have blown the cobwebs away and taken the edge off him, vital as he can be a little bit keen in the early stages of a race. That could be an issue today going over a longer trip but a decent pace looks likely, given there’s 16 runners and a couple, such as Cape Rising and Royal Opera who are more than capable of making the running. Tony Hamilton taking the ride catches the eye, not least as he doesn’t ride often for the Michael Easterby stable, and the yard’s usual apprentice (who rides their other two entries at Carlisle) does not take the ride. That could be a sign in itself and this one is worthy of support up until the 9/1 mark. His stamina is questionable, but has the pedigree to suggest he’ll stay, alongside his running style over 1m2f and comes from a yard that have had some success over the past few days. He’s a big price but he’s handicapped to win a race and should be fully wound-up after his seasonal reappearance. ROYAL BOX (17:35) returns to what could be ideal conditions today and is handicapped to win a race, and has been subject of some strange market support at times since joining David Evans. Someone, somewhere believes he can win a race and returning to conditions that suit, he’s worthy of some small interest. Softer ground is generally productive to his chances (does go on good ground) so his last effort at Leicester should be written off entirely, never really letting himself down on the quick ground and finishing stone last. He has shown glimpses of ability for David Evans since joining the stable, and was backed down to 3/1 three starts ago in a competitive enough heat. Although well-beaten, he’s now 4lbs lower in the ratings and David Evans is very rarely wrong when it comes to these sorts of low-grade animals. He’s likely to be able to pick up a race somewhere and Royal Box has C&D form, when finishing in the places off 1lb higher last year. A replication of that effort would see him go very close here (that came in a much better race) and his form around Chepstow reads 1325. He’s an inconsistent type but doesn’t really run a bad race when running around this course, which is a positive given its unique nature and at these sorts of odds, he’s worthy of some support. It’s a bit of a ‘punt’ this bet as his recent showings would absolutely put you off him altogether, but returned to ideal conditions, with Cathy Gannon retaining the ride and continuing to impress, Royal Box could well provide a topical winner. Bets 16:05 Carlisle – Gold Rules; 2pts @ 25/1 Bet365 (bog) 17:35 Chepstow – Royal Box; 1pt @ 16/1 Betfred (bog)
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Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day
It's very nature means you either have a really good day or an absolute horrific one. I don't think I've really ever had a "break-even Saturday" in months, either one extreme or the other.Nice one cpo. I'll say it again. Saturday racing is the devil. -
Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day
Oh what a day I have had. Got off to the worst possible start with my first selection coming down but from then on the day has been one of my best. Other than the dash' date=' I went through the Epsom card. Got the last 2 winners but had a nice double on the AOB horses. Happy days! Add to that, the fact both Pastoral Player and Moonlight Cloud won, and I have had a rather good day![/quote'] Great stuff that :ok -
Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day First winner in ages, typical I only have 1pt on it but can't complain too much. Cheers folks.
Flat Racing - Sunday 22nd July 2012
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 22nd July 2012 First selection for a little while. A usual very competitive big-field sprint handicap and a whole host of runners with chances, but TAAJUB (17:05) is still in really good form and ran a cracking race last time out, when just ran out of it in the closing furlong over 6f. That trip is a little bit too far for him when running off this sort of mark and now dropped back to the minimum trip, in a strongly run race and still being on a workable rating compared to his performances a juvenile, I feel there’s value in this double figure price. Taajub was a very useful juvenile, being rated 108 at his peak and his career best effort came over this C&D when chinned close home in a Group 3 contest. He found things difficult subsequently, dropping 28lbs in the ratings. It was not until joining Peter Crate that his fortunes turned around, winning two handicaps at Lingfield over 5f off ratings of 80 and 85. The common theme with these two victories was that the races were run at a furious pace, Peter Crate being quoted as “the faster they go, the betterâ€, which obviously bodes well for a race like this. He seemed to win both of those all-weather races with plenty in hand. Taajub is in good heart at present, having run really well on his last three starts at Epsom, running a big race in the ‘Dash’ and was far from looking held off this handicap rating on the basis of that effort. 6f didn’t quite suit last time when finishing 3rd, albeit running a gallant race after committing for home quite early and now back to his ideal trip, he’s definitely capable of running a big race. There’s plenty of early speed in close proximity, with Judge ‘N Jury, Magical Macey and Taurus Twins all likely to go quick from the gate and it should mean he gets a good tow into the race. Stall 12 at Ascot over 5f has an interesting record of 9/41, which would be a big positive for today if taken on face value but I’m not quite convinced of its usefulness, as it could just be a statistical anomaly, but it’s worth considering nonetheless. Taajub still looks capable of improvement when getting a race run to suit over 5f and given that he has past form at the track, is guaranteed a good pace to aim at and goes on any ground, he looks a fair bet at 16/1. He should be closer to the 10/1 mark. Given how competitive this race is, I’d only recommend the minimum stakes. 17:05 Ascot – Taajub; 1pt @ 16/1 BetVictor, Boylesports (bog)