Lars
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Posts posted by Lars
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Re: Flat Racing Friday - Oaks Day The thing I'm dreading is an AOB pacemaker winning... Aidy and Jimmy will never let me hear the end of it :lol
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Re: The Jockey Thread
William Buick on Gatewood = :clap. It often pays to race prominently around Epsom as you need a good position as you go into the straight. Buick settled the horse at the back of the field' date=' got a run down the outside and never lost momentum and seemed to do it a bit cheekily in the end, what a great young jockey.[/quote'] It was an absolutely terrible ride in my view, the horse got him out of trouble big style and he was obviously 15lbs or so better than his mark to win from that position. It would have been a travesty if he'd have been beaten with so much obviously in hand. -
A 17 runner handicap isn’t always the best place to find a solid bet, but HEIGHT OF SUMMER (18:15) shaped nicely on seasonal reappearance last time and with the good pace and stiffer track likely to suit today, she’s overpriced at her current double figure price. Lightly-raced with only 7 starts to date, her best form has come on polytrack but she’s hardly had much of a chance on turf away from slow ground or competitive maidens, so she’s unexposed on grass in that respect. Her sole victory came over this trip at Kempton back in August off a 1lb lower mark, a win where she was value for more especially as they didn’t go quick early on and she had to make plenty of ground up from the rear. She shaped as if she’d get further but her subsequent two starts were disappointing, with slower ground at Goodwood likely to blame before a fairly lifeless effort back at Kempton over 1m4f. Those two efforts were last year and her seasonal reappearance two weeks ago was very encouraging. Held-up, she was ridden hands and heels throughout and stayed on nicely. It was a promising effort especially coming from a yard that often leaves plenty to work with for those making a seasonal debut and she should have come on for that run quite significantly. The stiffer finish at Sandown today will help, given she might need a test at this 1m2f trip and the likely decent pace, with 17 runners and three usual pacesetters, should lead to them going at least a decent clip, an obvious benefit. Height Of Summer is obviously handicapped to go close off a rating of 70; given she won off 69 last year and although the Chris Wall yard are struggling for winners of late, his horses aren’t running badly in the main and I’m not overly concerned on that front. She’ll need to find the gaps in a big-field like this but at a price of 14/1; I’m willing to take the chance that they’ll come. She’ll probably need significant rain to stay away but it’s forecast to do so and given she’s unexposed on fast turf and easily looks capable of improving past her current mark, she is worthy of the usual stakes. Bets 18:15 Sandown – Height Of Summer; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)
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Re: Mastering the Long losing run. This thread is eight years old, unbelievable. No idea why it's been brought back up. May as well post this video here, as it's an easy watch really and sums up the subject perfectly.
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Keeping this one brief as I have an exam in the afternoon. KUANYAO (19:10) hasn’t won since 2010 when he racked up a six-timer over a period of 11 months. That of course led to his rating shooting up to a career high of 93 at the beginning of the 2011 season. He wasn’t seen to best effect last year but did show some glimpses of promise on occasions, and was often not knocked about or raced out of his favoured position. He’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and back down to 1lb lower than his last winning mark, he could well cause a surprise here. He’s equally effective over either 6f-7f and preferably he likes to lead, although his last victory came when unable to dominate, so it’s not paramount to his chances. That being said, his efforts in 2011 were mainly poor ones, often due to the fact he was hardly ever asked to front-run and the one occasion in which he was able to, he ran the best race of his season, only headed in the last 100 yards and still looking a threat from his revised handicap mark. Two poor efforts followed but he raced in midfield in both of them and in the latter, he was hampered when asked to make his challenge and wasn’t persevered with. That similar comment can be attributed to his seasonal reappearance in a much more competitive race than this. Kuanyao was able to race towards the front, but he looked in need of the outing and Chris Catlin’s lack of effort in the saddle indicated that they were expecting this one to improve for the run. Peter Makin has subsequently had a sprint handicapper winner, getting him off the cold-list alongside a placed effort in a maiden race, so the stable could well be running into some form. Albeit drawn possibly poorly in stall 13 today, I’m expecting much better. Firstly, he’s 3lb lower than that reappearance effort, a run he’ll have probably needed. The booking of Tom Queally is a positive for the yard, having a record of 4/20 and conditions today won’t be a problem, as the selection is more than capable of handling quick ground over 6f. If he’s allowed to stride on, then it could well be he’s difficult to peg back off an extremely workable rating of 83. This is a race he’d need to win to take up entries in bigger handicaps later in the year and although the presence of West Coast Dream in stall 15 could mean they cut each other’s throats in front, a 33/1 shot is hardly going to be bombproof and he’s well worth taking a chance on. He should be closer to the 12’s mark in my book and worthy of a standard sized bet. Bets 19:10 Windsor – Kuanyao; 2pts @ 33/1 Bet365, BetVictor, (bog)
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 27th
Great shout :okCurragh - Samitar 25/1 Bet365 BOG This is more out of hope than judgement if I am honest. Im not convinced by the form of Homecoming Queen in the English Guineas and while she won that brilliantly I certainly cant be having her at evens this time. Having said that, there isnt much that sticks out at me, and I am making a speculative selection on Samitar regaining her good ground 2yo form, where she ran some quick times finishing behind Lyric Of Light twice over a mile & then winning a big prize at Newmarket. The form is certainly questionable but the TopSpeeds themselves look pretty reliable and at 25/1 I will have a speculative punt! -
Re: FLAT RACING SAT 26TH MAY
Takes the pressure off you that one, good stuff.2.15 Goodwood - 3pts win Grandeur @ 4/1 (SJ) I think this represents a good opportunity for Jeremy Noseda's charge to win his first handicap as he progresses up in trip. The new distance of essentially 1m2f doesn't look to be a problem on pedigree and he's shaped as if he'd stay further than a mile on his runs to date. His form has plenty of substance to it and his mark of 88 doesn't look beyond him as I feel he'll improve a few lbs for the extra yardage. He got up late to beat Bronze Angel - who has thrived to a higher mark than its conqueror since - and he shaped plenty well enough on his return on heavy ground on his recent reappearance. He shaped like he'd enjoy further when plodding on that day and now he's got fitness on his side also, conditions should be ideal here. The return to quicker ground is no issue whatsoever and I think he'll take a bit of beating. -
Nice winner with this one, knew I'd seen it somewhere on here :ok5:05 Yarmouth - Cut The Cackle - 0.5 pt EW (14/1 Bet365) Went into my alerts Tuesday at Brighton after staying on strong over a mile (first ever run over the distance) when it clearly wasn't going to suit the horse so seems like it's in good spirits. Finished 4th of 5th that day and although it was never really near the winner, the horse had to switch right from being on the rail to outside the other horses inside the final furlong and may have been closer had it had the clear run it wanted. I'm perhaps clutching at straws with this one but the horse makes a quick reappearance today back on turf at a distance that suits (preferably prefers 6 furlongs but has won at 7 and beaten a head off a 3 pound higher mark at Lingfield earlier this month). Taking a chance that the horse will be ok after such a short space between runs so could well take a part or finish way out the back. Handicapped to take a part though if all is well so definitely worth an ew bet at the price on the chance it's still in good heart from Tuesday.
Pretty sure he doesn't find much for the whip IIRC, I've seen close finishes that he's been involved with that the jockey has only gone for it in the last 50 yards or so. He needs treating with kid-gloves really, hence how he doesn't win very often.Very close 3rd and never hit with the whip. Pah. -
Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY CITRUS STAR (15:10) needs 7f, a good pace to aim at and quick ground, he gets all three today and although he’s a bit of a character, he should run really well off what looks an extremely lenient turf handicap mark. A winner over C&D in 2010 off 6lbs higher, he struggled for a while afterwards but slowly started getting it together again towards the end of last season, culminating in a victory off a rating of 92 on polytrack debut at Lingfield, winning with what looked like plenty in hand. He was far from disgraced next time out in a Conditions event and although he was beaten 43 lengths on seasonal reappearance, that effort was over a trip too sharp, ground too soft and ran in the wrong group, so it’s an effort worth completely writing off. He’ll strip fitter for that anyway and the handicapper has bizarrely dropped him 4lbs for it, which is very generous and he looks well-handicapped both on his recent all-weather form and his best turf exploits. Quick ground and 7f is paramount to his chance on turf and he gets both of those today, alongside a track he obviously handles and the assistance of William Buick, who is 2/7 for the Chris Wall stable, can only be viewed as a positive. The inclusion of the also well-handicapped Primaeval means that we get a decent price on Citrus Star today and he should go very well, especially given plenty is in his favour conditions wise. Although his attitude can sometimes be a problem, the price today warrants a bet and he’s a good couple of points overpriced in my book, calling for a standard win bet. MARFORD MISSILE (15:30) has his first start at 7f here today but has the pedigree to stay the extra furlong and shaped that it would be within reach on his penultimate start. He won that day with plenty more in hand than the handicapper has given him credit for and if he does stay 7f, then he’s more than capable of taking this contest. The selection was sharp enough to win over 5f on debut, but his juvenile career didn’t go on for too long, finishing 2nd in the Lily Agnes at Chester in May 2011 being his final start of the season. Gelded in the meantime, he wasn’t seen for 10 months in public but made a winning reappearance at Kempton over 6f in March. Held-up in a slowly run, small-field contest, he did well to win and was hardly given a hard-time in doing so, looking to do the business with plenty more up his sleeve. Richard Kingscote reported after the race that he’d improve again for another furlong, a statement backed up by his pedigree (dam won at 1m2f, half-sibling to winners at 7f-1m2f) which gives more encouragement that he can stay today’s distance. Surprisingly he was kept to 6f at Chester last time out, where he stood no chance given the way the race played out. He was slowly away, clipped heels early on and looked ill at ease on the exceptionally testing ground, not a surprise given he had a decent level of form on a faster surface. Today he races over much more favourable conditions, given the quick ground and I think it all depends on whether he has the stamina for the trip. The way he won at Kempton suggested he would stay it and also that he has plenty up his sleeve in the handicapping department. I think he might be capable of running to a mark of 90 in the very near future and with Kieran Fallon on board a noteworthy booking (0/11 for the yard, but has been their jockey of choice for stable-star Brown Panther so is obviously highly thought of at Manor House Stables), Marford Missile looks set for a big run. I have him at around the 7/1 mark, so the current price look very appealing. Bets 15:10 Goodwood – Citrus Star; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill (bog) 15:30 Haydock – Marford Missile; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)
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Re: BBOTD * Wednesday 23rd May 2012
Far too late with this one mate, has to be within 10 minutes of the off-time. The rules are stickied if you're unsure on what to do :ok You're free to pick another though in a later race.Marie's Fantasy @ 20/1 - 0.5pt e/w. This is hardly the greatest race ever and Marie's Fantasy is consistent enough to run into a place. There are some obvious potential improvers and Marie's Fantasy is exposed, but like I said, it's a poor contest! -
Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY WHITE DIAMOND (15:30) hasn’t been in bad form on her last two starts and was subject of a slightly too aggressive ride in a more competitive race this at Doncaster. Although untested at Brighton, the track should suit her and she’s still on a decent handicap rating, so has every chance of going close in a wide-open race. A winner over hurdles last season for Malcom Jefferson, she started life for the Michael Appleby stable with a very positive effort at Wolverhampton over 1m4f, running really well into 2nd and looking she still had some scope for progression. This case could also be made by the fact she had some fair form last year over these sorts of trips running off marks in the 70’s, so it’s entirely plausible that she’d improve a tad from a rating of 68. She about ran to that mark last time out in an Amateur Riders Handicap, possibly being sent for home too soon and passed with relative ease by the front-three. She stuck on well enough for 4th though and that was a much more competitive race than this one today, so she has definitely got a form chance. Brighton as a track should suit her, as her two wins have come on the fairly idiosyncratic tracks of Navan and Fakenham, so she doesn’t mind today’s sort of test and this is her trip, so she’s more than capable of going well. William Carson continues to impress in the saddle and rides for the first time for the Michael Appelby yard, a possible pointer in itself. This mare is overpriced, given she should enjoy Brighton given her past form and the track favouring those who like to be ridden prominently, she’s still well-handicapped on some of last year’s form and enjoys a sound surface. She should be around the 8/1 mark I feel, and is worth backing until that sort of price. ARMIGER (17:30) likely enters the last chance saloon today given he’s only rated 49 and can hardly fall much lower, but I’ve always thought they’d be a race in him at some point and although his last three efforts have been abhorrent to say the least, I’ve found enough excuses to suggest that he could be worth a bet today if those excuses are legitimate. He looked like a horse that had a bit of a future on his first couple of starts but slowly dropped down the handicap ranks as a juvenile, not particularly showing a great deal. That being said, his effort on seasonal reappearance was far from shoddy and indicated there was a race within him, finishing the race well over 6f. He looked like he’d come on bundles for that but hasn’t at all. His next start could well have just been an awful run as he never looked happy, while his subsequent two outings I think were particularly poor due to soft ground, and next time an adverse reaction to blinkers, forcing him to do too much in front. That headgear has been discarded and I’m willing to give Armiger one more chance. He should be at home on a sound surface and certain efforts over 6f, as well as his pedigree suggest that this 7f trip should be within range. He might have lost the plot entirely but William Carson is a positive booking (last rode this horse when it was sent off 5/1). If I’m right about the reasons for his last three poor runs, a bold show would not surprise. WEST LEAKE (20:30) returns to his best trip tonight and has fallen to an extremely workable mark given that he’s been running at the wrong distances on his four starts in 2012. Back under the right conditions and dropped in grade, he has every chance of putting up a big performance tonight. A three-time C&D winner, he’s won at a trip of a mile before (at Lingfield) but unless they go really quickly early on, he pulls far too hard over that trip and fails to get home. That pretty much sums up the story of the majority of recent efforts, especially his latest start over that mile trip. West Leake isn’t a complete lost cause form wise however, as his penultimate start when dropped to the slightly too sharp distance of 6f was promising, staying on well and still shaping that ability was still present. This is his first start at 7f this year and he’s now 8lbs lower than when he last tried this trip, alongside that he’s 3lbs lower than his last C&D victory. He’s a horse who always tries his best unless given an aggressive front running ride and enjoys being held-up off a strong pace over this sort of trip, so with the likes of Dvinksy and Fenella Fudge in attendance, a decent gallop should ensue. If it does and West Leake settles nicely in the rear, then he has every chance of really close off a mark of 60. He’s easily capable of running to about 70 when everything falls his way (often doesn’t) but with that more likely today and the price making it a risk worth taking, then he’s definitely a bet. In a race where there’s likely going to be a decent gallop, over his best trip and back to a workable handicap rating, West Leake will go well. Bets 15:30 Brighton – White Diamond; 1pt @ 11/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog) 17:30 Brighton – Armiger; 1pt @ 40/1 William Hill (bog) 20:30 Kempton – West Leake; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)
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Re: Stallion Stats
You coined the term "I haven't stated a thing other than his two year olds have performed admirably so far this season. As the season rolls on, the sire's stats may not look as good as they currently are. What should it matter about the quality of races that they take part in?quality crop" of 2yo's this season, and used an example where a horse finished 3rd in a race where the winner received £1941. You'd be completely correct in saying that it was a "quality crop" if Ishiguru progeny were winning/placing at Royal Ascot, Group races etc... but they've yet to take place and I really cannot see the likes of Ishi Honest and Lastchancelucas being good enough for that level.
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Re: Tips to keep your accounts open Might merge this thread with another we had not so long ago, will have to try and find it. Keeping accounts open is extremely difficult, especially as you can be restricted for backing losers, just as well as you can winners. Losing bets that contract seriously in price, consistently going close or backing at big prices can often lead to Bookmakers taking action before some good luck goes in your favour. Would recommend that unless it is a big Saturday race, that you almost ignore the overnight prices in Class 5/6 races. It gets so frustrating and even if a bet is cut by 2 points or so, it could still be value and seeing that the price has contracted can often lead to wrongly turning elsewhere. Bet365 are renowned for putting up some incredible overnight odds but the difficultly is that you'll likely only be able to get £1000 liability and it'll plausibly mean that there's a terrible price in the morning, and connections will declare it a non-runner or take a pull. Spreading your stake around can help for a time but eventually, they're almost certainly going to pull the plug if you're constant profits. My main advice for those not wanting to have accounts limited is just not to bet at all :lol . It's going to happen online eventually unless you're a really dreadful punter who backs multiples all the time. It's a sad state of affairs but that's just the way it is.
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Re: Stallion Stats
It proves that Ishiguru has produced a quality crop of 2yo's this year' date=' doesn't it?[/quote'] Not really. A sample size of 10 runners is far from big enough to make such a judgement, and they've hardly won at Royal Ascot have they? Ishiguru died in 2009 anyway so this will be his last juvenile crop, so it's not particularly useful looking long-term. -
Re: FLAT RACING MON 21ST MAY Although PURIFICATION (20:10) was well-beaten on seasonal reappearance 23 days ago, he shaped with more promise than the bare form suggests and he’s more than capable of hacking up off this mark of 85, especially as he had looked a promising sort at one time. It’s interesting that connections persevere and he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price. He’s had five starts to date and showed a high-class level of form in two of those, finishing 2nd behind Genius Beast on his final start in 2010, which is fairly strong form and then winning his maiden over 10f quite convincingly. He shaped that day as if further would suit and was sent off the relatively short price of 8/1 in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, he looked inexperienced and faded tamely, eventually beaten 73 lengths. He wasn’t seen from then until last month having been gelded and although beaten 14.5 lengths, it wasn’t an abhorrent run. He saw plenty of daylight, was sent wide for his challenge and was hardly given a hard time in the closing stages, over a trip that is probably on the sharp side. In theory, he should have come on bundles for that outing and I’m expecting much better today. Purification handles faster ground, the gelding operation should have improved his attitude if nothing more and he’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance. The 3lb drop in the handicap is of obvious benefit and it may be that today we’ll see something like the best of this one, especially as he had previously looked to have a lot of potential. Although it may be that he didn’t train on, he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price, especially with William Buick back aboard and conditions to suit, with the slight step up in trip also of benefit. Bets 20:10 Windsor – Purification; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog)
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Re: Flat Racing - 18h May Although he hasn’t won on the flat since 2007, and that win coming in Germany, WALDVOGEL (14:00) comes into this race off an attractive looking mark, fitter than the bare form suggests after an outing in a charity race at the Aintree Festival and over what could well be ideal conditions, he’s more than capable of playing a big role in the finish. A listed winner in Germany in his younger days, he’s getting on a bit but seemed to be as good during the summer last year, going very close at this C&D in July off a 2lb higher mark. Ideally he wants a sound surface I think and although he ran well in competitive handicaps at Ascot (not beaten far) and back here at York, I just think the combination of the higher rating and the softer surface meant he didn’t stand much of a chance of winning. His penultimate effort of the 2011 season needs excusing as he was held-up off a very modest pace and while his last start was pretty abysmal, he’d had a long season by his standards and was possibly just feeling the pinch. In the Racing Post, it claims he’s been away from the track for 219 days and if that was so, fitness would be an issue but it fails to point out that he ran well enough in a Charity Race at Aintree. That was over 1m5f and although the form shouldn’t be read literally, at least he had an outing on course about a month ago which would have blown any cobwebs away. Waldvogel enjoys the 1m4f of York and a sound surface and he gets both of these today and he’s attractively handicapped from this rating, as he’s more than capable of running close to a mark of 100 if he’s back to somewhere close to last year’s best. There are of course some more unexposed animals in the line-up but this sort of price is well worth taking, as he’s hilariously overpriced in my book (I’d take 12/1). It might be just that he’s a perennial loser on the flat, but he does know how to win races having done it over hurdles in the more recent past and Andrea Atzeni is one of the more capable jockeys who can do a low weight, so this horse is definitely interesting today in an open race. -- Three year-old early season middle-distance handicaps are often tricky puzzles to solve and with a raft of big yards involved today, this is definitely one of them. KEY GOLD (16:45) won her maiden last time out over this trip with a minimum of fuss, even though she didn’t seem to appreciate the soft conditions that day. It’s likely that she’s well-in off a mark of 72 and definitely stays the trip, thus looking overpriced in this contest. She’s had four starts, shaping as though these trips would be her forte over a mile on her second outing and confirming that when staying on strongly over 10f at the beginning of this year. She was a warm order for her reappearance effort kept to maiden company, upped in trip again to 12f. That will prove not to be the strongest of heats in time but she did well to win, especially as he wasn’t overly extended and seemed to be uncomfortable on the soft surface, changing her legs on occasions and not looking completely happy. Both this and her pedigree suggest better ground will suit, which obviously bodes well for today. The handicapper hasn’t moved her for that success and I think she’s been underestimated in that respect, especially as there is definitely more to come over this trip and on a better surface. Plenty here come in with chances, either looking like they’ll appreciate the extra distance (Estedaama and Daneking) or are possibly well-handicapped (Priestley’s Reward) but Key Gold should be around the 5/1 mark, given I still think there’s more to come and given she’s a bigger price than that currently, worthy of a small investment. Bets 14:00 York – Waldvogel; 2pts @ 25/1 Boylesports, William Hill (bog) 16:45 York – Key Gold; 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: May's Chester meeting Any reason why you think this would be important, especially when they'd be sponsoring a race on a different day? In the case of someone sponsoring a race that they're entering a horse in, then I'd agree that it is possibly worth noting. An example earlier this year would be Astracad, that won a race which was named after the owner's wife who had recently passed away. Trainers often sponsor a race for some exposure so if they had a runner, I guess it would be in their best interests for it go to well.
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Re: Flat Racing 16th May (York, Lingfield, Bath & Naas) Would have posted this in the morning but was stuck on a train, my blog was set to update itself automatically so it solved that problem. Prices are just about the same anyway. Although on last time out form LABARINTO (13:30) wouldn’t have a chance, that run was all wrong for a yard that at the time, were out of sorts. That can’t be said now and returned to better ground and his optimum trip, I’m hoping for much better. He made solid progress in handicaps last season, rising from an opening mark of 87 to his current rating of 97, running some big races without a win over this 10f trip before finally succeeding off a mark of 93 at Goodwood. That was a performance of some note, especially as it came in a race that generally favoured those up with the pace and not many got into the race. The horse he beat was a decent yardstick and Labarinto looked destined for better things. Sent off a 7/2f for the Dubai Duty Free handicap at Newbury, he dropped away when chasing an overly quick pace, emphasised by the fact that the first four home all came from off the pace. It wasn’t overly encouraging but was definitely worth putting a line through, and his seasonal reappearance should attribute similar comments. Although a winner on soft ground in a Maiden, I don’t think it’s a surface that suits a horse with his action ideally and running on testing ground on reappearance can often find a horse out. That race was over a mile too, a trip on the sharp side and with the Sir Michael Stoute yard going notably poorly at that point in time, it’s fair to say he’ll have benefitted from the outing. Now back up in trip, on better ground, and for a yard now amongst the winners, it’s fair to say that better is definitely expected. He remains potentially a close to pattern-class animal on his form when winning at Goodwood and with reasonable excuses since then, he’s definitely worth chancing especially in a field where there isn’t an abundance of younger progressive types. Flag Officer would be the main danger on paper but he’s been off for a long while and I don’t particularly rate his trainer a great deal at this time of the year. Although not an outlandishly big price on first glance, I feel confident that we’re yet to see the best of Labarinto and off what still be a very generous mark, he’s worth backing into about the 9/2 mark. -- Although carrying top-weight in a sprint handicap isn’t ideal, NEW PLANET (14:00) has shown form to suggest he still retains plenty of his ability that he showed as a juvenile and after not an ideal three year old campaign, he still looks capable of running to around a level of 110 if getting a strongly run race which is more than likely in a big-field handicap such as this one. He’s far too big a price today and should be more like single figures, so he’s definitely worthy of a bet. He was highly tried as a juvenile, placing in a Group 2 at Doncaster and that subsequently made him difficult to place last season, especially when there’s a distinct lack of opportunities for sprinters of that age. He ran respectably in a handicap over this C&D off 5lbs higher, and in a Conditions event at Doncaster, but the season ended quite prematurely in late July and it seems that they’ve decided to save this horse for this campaign, where there’s an abundance of opportunities. Gelded in the meantime, he returned to winning ways first time out at Warwick, in what wasn’t the greatest of races. He did it well though and showed that he was perfectly capable of running to a decent level of form as an older horse. This was subsequently backed up when finishing 5th last time out in a listed contest. Although beaten by 5.75 lengths, the race was run at a very modest pace and New Planet got caught flat-footed and probably ran as well as he could in the circumstances. He does best when they go a nice pace and although there isn’t an abundance of front-runners in the race, with 20 runners going to post it is fair to say that they’ll likely go a fair clip. Although carrying a big-weight, I wouldn’t have said he’d be out of his depth at a couple of grades higher than this, and this has been a race where winners have gone on to be Group race animals, Hoof It and Borderlescott being two examples. New Planet is lightly-raced enough to have the scope to go on to a better grade than this and he’s far too big a price at these double-figure odds. He should be more like 9/1 in my book and he’s worthy of a 2pt bet, even though races like this are devilishly difficult to solve, given there could be draw and pace biases that only become known post-race. -- KING KURT (15:35) is 7lbs higher than his last winning mark but he still retains the scope to progress further at around this 1m4f trip. His reappearance effort should have put him spot on and I think a win from this mark is entirely possible, so he’s a horse worth following until he proves otherwise. Kevin Ryan’s charge was twice a winner in 2011, once at this 1m4f trip. His last victory came off 7lbs higher and it was a resounding success over 1m2f, where although he was slightly fortunate that the race panned out perfectly (was handy in a slowly-run race), he stayed on extremely strongly and looked a horse that could definitely be competitive off ratings much higher than the one he is currently at. He was well-beaten on his next two starts, but the second being in decent company and he probably ran as well as could have been expected. His final start of the 2011 campaign was a creditable one on soft ground over 1m5f. Although quite slowly run, it more or less proved that this trip was within range, as he had on occasions looked that he might not stay a strongly run contest at 1m4f. King Kurt’s seasonal reappearance was far from disgraceful and it’s entirely plausible that this big price has been attributed to that seemingly “poor runâ€. For a start, it was on really testing ground which for a seasonal reappearance is obviously not ideal. More patient tactics were employed and he was keen early on, and it’s fair to say he wasn’t knocked about in the closing stages. He still made a modicum of ground and with that run under his belt; I feel he’s definitely capable of further progression. He’ll stay the 1m4f trip, will likely appreciate the better ground today and he is still unexposed at these sorts of distance. A draw in stall 20 might not be seen as ideal but the winner of last year’s renewal came from a similarly wide berth and they have long enough to sort themselves out before meeting a bend. If he’s ridden more prominently today, which in a race with this sort of prize-money, would be more likely, a bold show is far from out of the equation. I think he is more than capable to run to a mark of 90 or so, and with his reappearance effort possibly setting him up for this sort of race, then he’s definitely worth a bet at a big price. I’d be taking prices up to about 10/1 or so for this one. Bets 13:30 York – Labarinto; 2pts @ 8/1 William Hill (bog) 14:00 York – New Planet; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog) 15:35 York – King Kurt; 2pts @ 16/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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After living in York for most of my life, I've never made the Dante meeting due to exams/uni/skint but looks like I'll be able to make it this time around. Any PL'ers planning on attending? I know I'm going on the Friday for definite, but know this is quite a popular one with some of the Northern PL'ers :ok
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Re: How do you guys study form?? I'm pretty busy at this time of the year with other stuff so I'll keep this very brief. I also aren't entirely sure I'm the best qualified to answer as I learnt my racing in rather a roundabout way. First off, you need to grasp how a racecard works before anything else. The Racing Post have handy guides within their paper (and I think on their website) and also Sporting Life's pages are quite easy to navigate. Grasping the terminology is a vital early step. Next off, it's probably best if you watch a fair lot of racing, especially listening to the analysis given pre and post-race. I'd recommend Racing UK and there's a few free internet streams about to watch it on (as it is £9 a month online). Although these pundits views are often wrong, learning what people are talking about in Racing in connection with the form/ground/distance of race etc will bring you on a fair deal, and soon enough (after a few weeks) you'll be capable of challenging their opinions yourself. If you're not about to watch the Racing live on channels like RUK, then Sporting Life do replays here. There's a little trick that works on most videos to get the pre-race analysis, if you click the actual video player while it's playing, and press backspace, then it should start right from the beginning of their coverage of the race (sometimes Paddock shots etc). You can't skip it so you'll just have to leave it running til the race but it's definitely handy. There's probably quicker ways, such as giving it a go yourself straight off, but you'll burn money like it's no tomorrow and I'd recommend you just keep a watching brief for a while, as long-term it'll work out better.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May
Perhaps a bit of home-team stewards bias in favour of Marwan Koukash but, a badly needed winner at this end.PINTURA (13:35) comes into this race off the back of two poor runs in high-class 1m handicaps but is much better than he showed then and has subsequently fallen to a good mark. With conditions and track to suit, alongside the drop back in trip which will bring about improvement and he has every chance at a price that is quite simply far too big. His last victory came off a mark of 80 but he has gone incredibly close on four occasions subsequently and is easily capable of running to ratings close to 100, as shown when putting in a bold effort at York last August, when narrowly run down late over a mile. He’s a tough and consistent type when allowed to sit prominently so I don’t think that prominent tactics used on his three starts in 2012 quite suit. It’s likely that he’ll have been lined up for this sort of handicap given connections and I big run shouldn’t be too far away over these conditions. Soft/heavy ground isn’t a bother on him, his last victory actually coming on ground deemed as ‘heavy’. He enjoys Chester having a course record of 932, the runner-up effort coming in this renewal last year off a 1lb higher mark. It’s definitely not out of the question that Pintura will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the pace from a good draw, especially as there’s very little in the way of front-runners and Jamie Spencer is a dab hand at getting the best from these types. At the prices, Pintura rates as an obvious bet as I’d have him at around the 4/1 mark in these sorts of conditions. He’s nicely handicapped, handles the ground and track and should get the race run to suit. Even if he doesn’t lead, he’s still more than capable of playing a big part and although Kyllachy Star is a big danger in a race that he won 12 months ago but the ground as it is might not suit him ideally and at the price, he’s worth taking on. Dubai Dynamo could also play a part but it isn’t that competitive a contest for a Class 2 event and Pintura is the one to be on. Bets 13:35 Chester – Pintura; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (bog) -
Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May PINTURA (13:35) comes into this race off the back of two poor runs in high-class 1m handicaps but is much better than he showed then and has subsequently fallen to a good mark. With conditions and track to suit, alongside the drop back in trip which will bring about improvement and he has every chance at a price that is quite simply far too big. His last victory came off a mark of 80 but he has gone incredibly close on four occasions subsequently and is easily capable of running to ratings close to 100, as shown when putting in a bold effort at York last August, when narrowly run down late over a mile. He’s a tough and consistent type when allowed to sit prominently so I don’t think that prominent tactics used on his three starts in 2012 quite suit. It’s likely that he’ll have been lined up for this sort of handicap given connections and I big run shouldn’t be too far away over these conditions. Soft/heavy ground isn’t a bother on him, his last victory actually coming on ground deemed as ‘heavy’. He enjoys Chester having a course record of 932, the runner-up effort coming in this renewal last year off a 1lb higher mark. It’s definitely not out of the question that Pintura will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the pace from a good draw, especially as there’s very little in the way of front-runners and Jamie Spencer is a dab hand at getting the best from these types. At the prices, Pintura rates as an obvious bet as I’d have him at around the 4/1 mark in these sorts of conditions. He’s nicely handicapped, handles the ground and track and should get the race run to suit. Even if he doesn’t lead, he’s still more than capable of playing a big part and although Kyllachy Star is a big danger in a race that he won 12 months ago but the ground as it is might not suit him ideally and at the price, he’s worth taking on. Dubai Dynamo could also play a part but it isn’t that competitive a contest for a Class 2 event and Pintura is the one to be on. KING ZEAL (20:30) returns to the flat after a decent time of it over hurdles and he’s actually on a fair handicap rating, especially considering he’s 1lb lower than his last flat success. He’s often shown that he can be a notch better than this grade and did seem to be in reasonable form over hurdles before a fall on his last start. With conditions not a problem and the race likely to be run to suit, this looks a fair opportunity. King Zeal has a 2/3 record over this C&D and although they came off much lower ratings, it emphasises the fact that he’s at his best on a left-handed, galloping track (his other two wins on the flat came at the similar course of Haydock). A winner on soft ground on the flat, he’s also placed on heavy going over hurdles so the prevailing conditions at Nottingham today shouldn’t be of any concern. He generally started to struggle when running off handicap ratings in the mid-70’s but his last run over ideal conditions (on an galloping track over 10f) saw him run a respectable race from a mark of 72 and I’ve no doubt that he’s more than capable of capitalising from this rating of 69 now the handicapper has given him a chance, as long as that fall last time out over hurdles hasn’t left its mark. Previous to that he’d looked to be in good form and fitness definitely won’t be an issue. Barry Leavy’s runners over the past two weeks have form figures of 21, so he looks to have his small string going well and King Zeal should definitely have the race run to suit, as there isn’t much in the way of pace and he’s a fairly uncomplicated ride, merely bowl along in front and gallop all the way to the line. The booking of Royston Ffrench fills me with dread as he isn’t the greatest unless riding in the UAE but this horse has so much in its favour that I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt this time. He should be around the 7/1 mark and a double figure price is well worth investing in. The yard also run Mighty Clarets and it will be interesting to see how the market goes but I’m confident that we’re on the right one from this yard and hopefully he’ll run really well with plenty to suit. Bets 13:35 Chester – Pintura; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (bog) 20:30 Nottingham – King Zeal; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)
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Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +70.21pts in 39 days Here's an example.
There's nothing saying +70pts of profit with 18pts staked or whatever, but you'll end up confusing yourself if you carry on the way you were doing it :okStaked – 139.00pts Returned – 199.00pts Profit - +60.00pts ROI/Yield - +43.16% -
Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +70.21pts in 39 days
Well' date=' the first figure is the returns without including the 1pt wager. I had been deducting that from the total but started to wonder if I should be doing so. I did ask whether I should be including it but no one replied.[/quote'] You should just include the actual 'profit' from the bet itself, that's the common practice. The 1pt stake returned isn't even a profit anyway, it's, well, your stake! :ok
Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Although CROWN CHOICE (15:20) is drawn in stall 14, it isn’t as big a disadvantage over 7f here at Catterick as it would be over 6f and back to his preferred ground, on a good mark, down in grade and for a stable among the winners, he has every chance of recording his first success since May 2011. That was when he was trained by Walter Swinburn and was over 6f at Goodwood, but he’s equally effective over 7f and this sharp track shouldn’t inconvenience at all. Decent ground is paramount to his chances and he hasn’t faced that on his past two starts, but ran with credit in a very competitive Conditions Stakes on soft ground on his penultimate outing which suggested that the ability still remained and he could be competitive from a rating within the 90’s. His last start at Pontefract should be completely written off, running on soft ground on the wrong part of the track. Fortunately, the handicapper has dropped him 3lbs and this allows him to get into this 0-90 contest off a rating of 88. His last victory came off a mark of 94 and he’s well-handicapped on that basis, alongside the fact he’s shown form to suggest he’d be up to running to a rating close to 100 over this trip in handicaps (Bunbury Cup effort last summer). With ideal conditions over a track he should handle, he’s a horse to follow for the time being and although drawn wide, they have plenty of time to sort themselves out over 7f here and hopefully he’ll be able to get cover. He’s better than this mark and he’s worth following when encountering better ground until he wins, and is worthy of the usual stakes at this sort of price, as I have him at around a 10/1 chance. This 1m4f handicap following The Derby is a remarkable race for a Class 2 contest as it’s a very poor race, with many of the runners coming with question marks against them. SPANISH DUKE (16:50) is one such runner but his preference for Epsom will obviously stand him in good stead and I think he has decent prospects of staying this 1m4f trip if he settles even remotely well and although this isn’t guaranteed, I still think he’s better than a mark of 97 when running around Epsom. He’s a quirky character that likes idiosyncratic tracks, having won both here at Epsom and at Brighton, the former coming in ridiculously easy fashion, looking like a Group horse in a handicap. That was off a mark of 95 and over 1m2f and today’s trip is a bit of a question mark, his only ever effort at this distance was only very moderate. That being said, it did take place in 2010 and his pedigree suggests that this trip is worth another go. Things didn’t go right for him after his Epsom victory and his only other creditable effort came back at this track, where he ran OK in a muddling Conditions event. It shows that he really does need to run here to show his best, and if showing that today he could hack up, even accounting for going 2f up in trip. This is a really weak contest and although Spanish Duke comes with his quirks, and his tendency to be keen early on won’t do him any favours over this longer trip, his admiration of Epsom alongside running off what looks a good mark, for a yard who seem to be starting to hit top gear this year, means he’s worthy of support until the 8/1 mark. Backing a horse who is a 21 race maiden isn’t the smartest of strategies long-term, but EENY MAC (17:40) has put up some very creditable efforts around Beverley and goes well fresh, so looks value at this big price with stronger handling likely to help. He’d at one point looked to be going absolutely nowhere and was rated as low as 43 at one stage. However, some fair efforts last season in plating company (actually stronger races than this handicap) saw him come back to a proper handicap rating and this mark of 50 doesn’t look insurmountable. All his best turf form has come on stiff tracks, placing over 7f-1m at Beverley and over 7f at Newcastle. A replication of those efforts would put him in the mix, especially with the talented Julie Burke taking over from an inexperienced 7lb claimer. She’s still able to claim 3lbs and is good value for it, and although Eeny Mac’s fitness has to be taken on trust, the Neville Bycroft yard have had a winner and a second from their last four runners and the selection finished in the places on seasonal reappearance at Southwell last season. Perhaps only another placed finish beckons but at this price, he’s worthy of a small win bet especially as he doesn’t seem soft in a finish or anything of that ilk. Bets 15:20 Catterick – Crown Choice; 2pts @ 18/1 Bet365 (bog) 16:50 Epsom – Spanish Duke; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog) 17:40 Beverley – Eeny Mac; 1pt @ 28/1 BetVictor (bog)