[Flat Racing Sunday 2nd of September]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 2nd of September Been out all day and came back to see one I'd been pondering on backing, gambled from 8/1 into 2/1 and was unplaced! Not really a UK bet but had a look at the Group 1 at Baden-Baden that goes off at 4:00pm. Although Danedream's involvement means ENERGIA DAVOS will have to improve a fair way to win, he's by no means a no hoper on his Brazilian form and at odds of 66/1 with the conventional bookmakers (got £5 matched at 179/1 on Betfair), he's ridiculously priced and worth a small interest. His Brazilian form has indicated that he likes cut in the ground (they've had plenty of rain at the German venue today), gets the 1m4f trip and essentially has Group 1 form in his native country. Brazilian racing isn't the strongest standard but they've had Dubai World Cup winners pretty recently and on a figures basis with RPR, he'd be far from a big price. Does have a 100 odd day absence to contend with but has ran well fresh before and if this race is falsely run, then he could well benefit.

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday Sept 1st]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Sept 1st Couple of selections for Saturday’s racing, coming from Sandown and Beverley. Good luck everyone with your bets today. Wrote this for START RIGHT (16:00) when he ran on the 22^nd August at York.

“START RIGHT is drawn wide and is probably priced accordingly with the assumption being that it’s a big negative. It usually would be if the plan was to sit prominently but a repeat of the hold-up tactics used on his last two starts would mean that it wouldn’t inconvenience too much. Start Right is still on a good mark after a really troubled but promising outing at Glorious Goodwood and he’s unlikely to face the same amount of problems in-running, so is competitively priced today. He was very useful for Luca Cumani, winning over a mile at Glorious Goodwood in 2010. He subsequently put in some solid efforts in very competitive handicaps, including a 2^nd at Sandown before being sold to Godolphin. Not seen until this year’s Dubai Carnival for this stable, he finished in the places twice, importantly on one occasion over this 1m2f distance. This proved that he definitively stayed the trip, especially as he was probably given too positive a ride (sent for home a long way out). This is important as his efforts in the UK had suggested that he might not be quite effective at the trip. Start Right returned to the UK and ran in the Lincoln at Doncaster, sent off a relatively short 8/1. He never landed a blow and the experiment with the Visor was quickly abandoned. There was plenty of promise though at Newmarket in June, coming off a three month absence, being far from knocked about and staying on well in the closing stages, especially given the handling. It was a performance of promise given he’d have probably been expected to come on for the run. He did exactly that, improving significantly at Goodwood last time out, proving again that the 1m2f trip was fine. He was given much too confident a ride by Silvestre De Sousa that day, leaving plenty to do and when finally asked for his effort, he met trouble and couldn’t make the ground up on the runaway leader in Landaman, who got first run. He should have finished 2^nd. Although drawn wide, there are plenty of winners who have won from double figure draws over this C&D, and stall 17 has the perfectly respectable record of 4/23, much higher than what you’d usually expect from such a wide berth. Obviously he’ll need luck in-running but I expect he’ll be dropped in at the back off a decent pace, which is likely considering the amount of runners in the field and the presence of Suits Me. Start Right is up 2lbs after Goodwood but looked then, and also on his past form that he still could be much better than a 100 rated animal. He doesn’t deserve to be double figures on the basis of that Goodwood run and although Sir John Hawkwood will be a tough nut to crack, the fact is that he’s not much of a price and that presents opportunities further down the field, with Start Right being one of them”.

That day the race didn’t pan out right for him at all. He was hampered coming out of his wide berth and dropped in last, but they went no pace at all during the early part of the race and that made his task extremely difficult. I think Frankie realised this as he wasn’t given a very tough time of it (quite rightly) but still made some decent late headway to finish much closer than looked likely 2f out. He obviously needs a decent pace to aim at given his usual hold-up tactics but that looks more likely here, with the Mark Johnston horses likely to get on with it and the pack will be wary of giving them an easy time of it up-front. I’ve still the belief that Start Right can pick up one of these races at this trip and given he has past form at Sandown, when runner-up at a mile off a mark of 99 in July 2011, this course shouldn’t hold any fears. A competitive heat in which many have chances but I’m sticking with my opinion that this sort of handicap is for the taking, especially given today he’s more kindly drawn. If they go a good clip, which is probable, then he has big claims and is value at this double-figure price. Bryan Smart has a very good record in this race, picking it up last year and also being victorious in 2007. He has two entries today but I do think that MOVE IN TIME (16:15) is the pick of the two by some way and he’s very attractively priced in this contest, especially as he’ll be suited by the conditions and will surely have improved for his last start, which wasn’t to his liking and he was entitled to improve for. A typical Bryan Smart sprinter in the sense that he can train them to be extremely useful as a 3yo (plenty of sprinters struggle at this age), Move In Time has only two victories to his name outside of maidens but one came over C&D (admittedly in a weak enough contest) and the other was in a listed sprint at Ascot at the end of last season. The way he won the Ascot listed race last season suggested he’d be even better this year and his effort on seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in a Group 3 was also full of promise too, travelling well but just getting tired and lacking a finishing kick towards the end of the race. Prominent tactics definitely are his want based on that Ascot performance, which made the decision to hold him up last time out a slightly bewildering one, especially as he was so well-backed. That was a small-field event at Nottingham and although he’d have to improve plenty on the bare form from that effort to win this race today, there’s plenty to indicate that he will. With a good draw in stall 4, he’ll be able to sit close to the pace (plenty of pace in the race, Move In Time doesn’t necessarily have to lead) and although you’d expect at most tracks that such a setup would suggest a hold-up horse would come to the fore, it’s extremely difficult to make ground from off the pace over sprint trips at Beverley and you generally do need to be close-up throughout to stand a chance, which is an obvious benefit for the likes of Move In Time. This will be in contrast to last time, where he was settled towards the rear and ran anyway like the outing was needed, not been given a particularly hard-time once beaten. It was his first start for about 10 weeks that day and he’ll be cherry ripe for this, a contest that his trainer obviously targets. Move In Time will be suited by the good ground and won’t want too much rain, but only a minimal amount is forecast and given he’s well-drawn, looks to have been the choice of stable jockey Tom Eaves, obviously handles the track and comes from a yard who are amongst the winners, he looks a decent bet at this double-figure price.. He’s certainly capable of playing a hand in Group races this Autumn if the ground stays dry and given he’s such a big price for this listed prize, he’s worthy of investment. Bets 16:00 Sandown – Start Right; 2pts @ 16/1 Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill (bog) 16:15 Beverley – Move In Time; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

[Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Don't you think Ben that you're significantly overstaking? You're on a 1-5pt scale it seems, and in your past 20 bets (I'm using this as its conveniently on the same page), you've staked 48pts. That's only in the past 9 days and that's a huge outlay IMO, especially to the scale you're using. Perhaps when you've analysed a bet and you're thinking of sticking 3pts on it, taking a step back and reconsidering how strong a bet it really is might be useful as I do get the impression you get a bit carried away on certain days. It's all well and good when you're staking quite heavily and things come off for you, but at the general prices you're backing them at (kind of similar to my own) you're always going to get long losing runs and if it goes on for a little longer than you'd expect, that's going to create a big dent in your betting bank. Just my two cents, of course.

[Jump Racing Thursday 30th of August]

Re: Jump Racing Thursday 30th of August

Anyone know if D A Rees is a gambling stable? Just looking at the 5.40 Fontwell and see that his runner has been backed form 20/1 into around 5/1. Hasn't been on the track for 144 days and its recent form reads 8PP7PP-

Big time mate, they had a horse called Changing Lanes win last season, think it was around the 7/1 mark and was backed into Evens. It's form beforehand was awful too IIRC. http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Changing+gamble+costs+Paddy+Power+pounds+150,000%3B+Southwell.-a0280137896

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

Thanks for the reply. It may have came across as a silly question, but I ment is there anything which you could relate it with. Suppose it's better to look for a horse which has plenty experience on it.

Don't understand your 2nd sentence. And yes, course experience is probably the way forward unless you think you have some other angle, plenty come on for the initial outing on the fibresand too and after not looking too handy on it on fibresand debut, continue to improve.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

How would you judge a horses form when running on an AW track if it hasn't ran on it before?

Always a difficult one to know whether a horse will handle Southwell on their first start at the venue. Few things to look out for, relatives that handled the surface, trainer record at Southwell, sire stats (http://www.flatstats.co.uk/sire_stats.php) for the sire in question, and whether they handle softer ground can often provide clues to whether they'll take to fibresand or not. But you don't know until they run on it, obviously!

[Flat Racing Tues 28th]

Re: Flat Racing Tues 28th STYLE MARGI (19:20) was beaten 77 lengths on his only start on fibresand and this obviously isn’t the best starting point for a selection round this Nottinghamshire venue but with blinkers applied today, shaping as if slowly coming back to form last time out and a distinct drop in grade, I’m quietly confident that he can outrun these big odds significantly. A 12 race maiden, his only reasonable form in 2011 came with blinkers applied, running a big race into 3^rd in a Dundalk handicap. Those, alongside a fair effort at Kempton in August last year have been his only resemblance of solid form in the past couple of seasons. That being said, I’m expecting much better today, with blinkers back on. His only try with them applied was the aforementioned Dundalk handicap in which he ran a career best, and from the majority of his efforts, he just looks a lazy horse who needs plenty of encouragement. With the blinkers back on, I’m hopeful that it can revitalise him significantly and they’ll definitely sharpen him up. He was beaten 7.5 lengths last time out at Lingfield and I don’t think he shaped too badly, fading quite late on, not given a hard time and again looking a bit lazy in the early part of the race. There are also other hints that blinkers could bring about huge improvement now reapplied. His dam raced in France and of her four appearances on the course, two were wearing blinkers. These were by far her two best efforts, culminating in a victory in a listed contest with that headgear applied and that same trait looks to have been passed to Style Margi. I’m fairly confident of a stronger showing now with the blinkers back on and even though it’s possible to have reservations about him tackling this surface again, the fact is that 12lbs lower in the ratings than when last encountering fibresand, finds himself in a modest 0-55 handicap today and had shaped a bit better on his last start. I think he’ll leave that past fibresand form behind significantly. Ed De Giles yard are in decent enough shape at the moment without the horses winning (two 2nds recently) and he’s a dab hand with these types who are falling down the weights and getting them back to reasonable form. I believe that Style Margi has been set-up for a punt with the blinkers being put back on the main catalyst for the apparent improvement and he’s worthy of investment today. 19:20 Southwell – Style Margi; 2pts @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread

I agree . Below is a thread from a couple of weeks back which illustrates the point Fintron is making . Surprisingly nobody responded / cared / took interest .

Think "no one really cared" as it was a bit of a daft point you were trying to make. Comparing the ride on Sir Mozart, which was an absolute blatant non-trier (I'll provide a link below) to one in which Richard Hughes actually gives the horse a chance in winning and then eases off when that has gone is clutching at straws. And come on, you cannot really believe that Laura Probert got tired can you? She literally was tanking on the best horse in the race, she barely had to do anything throughout the vast majority of the race and merely had to push it out and she would have won. She didn't do that. Sir Mozart (CLICK) Also in this race, I've never seen it where the rider actually forgot to take the blindfold off a horse in the gates :eek PS: On the subject of Laura Probert, anyone have any clue what this website is out? http://www.prometheusradio.com/lauraprobert/index.html

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/28-07-2012/salisbury/result/513729/cathedral-hotel-salisbury-handicap/video Dropped his hands on Whimsical before the line and got beat by a nose. Went unpunished. An apprentice would have been castrated for such a ride IMO

Tough one to call that, you're probably right but doubt that an apprentice would have got such a harsh reaction as Hughes didn't exactly stop riding altogether, and it obviously wasn't on the same level as Lee Newmans (albeit his ban was very harsh, but he did have prior for the same offence). Fair enough though.

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread

Hughes gets away with murder because he is 'Hughes' and it is somehow justified because that it is his 'style' (dropping hands and easing up when hitting the front). But if it was an apprentice that eased up close home' date=' they'd have the book thrown at them[/quote'] Think this is completely different to what Erhaab and myself were discussing before he starts salivating at the fact someone agrees with him re: Hughes. It of course isn't acceptable. I personally can't think of any examples where Hughes has been beaten because he's dropped his hands at the finish and hasn't received a ban, but willing to be proven wrong on that if shown an example.

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread

Of Richard Hughes 5 rides yesterday , 1 winner , a 3rd and the other 3 last one being a 9/4 fav . One was 53l last and the other 68l last . I'm not picking out these rides to be scrutenised just generalising my point , could these rides not have finished much closer to the winner ? Do we literally translate the 68l beating ? Would it be another 68l beating should they all race again under the same conditions ? I'm sure under different jockeys the winning distance would be much different , which is why I'd like to see all jockeys ride out for best possible finishing always. Take multiple champion jockey AP McCoy for example , he always makes an effort , so win or lose I never have a complaint about his rides.

I've had a look at the rides you've brought up, I know you weren't bringing up them up as examples to why Richard Hughes eases off but there's some good examples to why yesterday anyhow. Firstly, Sir Lexington obviously resented the blinkers, was never travelling, actually given reminders (!) before weakening well out of contention. You'd have to be a bit mad to suggest he should have ridden out a finish on him, he wasn't enjoying it, wasn't going to win, wasn't going to finish in the places and was correctly allowed to be brought home in his own time. Poetic Lord was eased up in the last 100 yards but he'd already dropped back to 4th at this point and was going backwards. Horse was struck into and was reported as lame by the vet so it was definitely the right decision to ease off him. He might have finished a couple of lengths closer if ridden out, but you can just as easily use that in your own calculations when he next runs? Titan Triumph was never travelling and was almost certainly amiss. The thing is, the difference between a 20 length beating and a 60 length one is pretty non-existent. Unless there's some mitigating excuse to why they were beaten so far (hampered etc..) then they're effectively the same. Your insistence that every horse be ridden out to the finish is bordering on animal cruelty. Or was this another 'rhetorical' question ?

[Flat Racing Monday 27th Aug 2012]

Re: Flar Racing Monday 27th Aug 2012 DERFENNA ART (16:25) handles the ground and the course, is still in form, looks to be capable of further progression and comes from a yard amongst the winners, so looks to have a very decent chance in a race where there’s plenty of runners, but not many you could realistically give a chance to. The selection is only a three year old and is obviously capable of further improvement having only had five starts in handicaps. After a quiet juvenile campaign last year, he’s improved for the switch to soft ground, with a 3^rd placed finish at Windsor off a mark of 66 back in May, and then going on to win over this C&D fairly comfortably, importantly on similar ground to what he faces today. He’s only 3lbs higher today and looks obviously well-handicapped in that regard. He’s back in form now too, as he ran a mighty race in a very competitive (for the grade) handicap over this C&D on his last start. That was won by Chosen Character who went on to frank the form by going very close in a valuable Brighton handicap on its next start. Alongside the fact it was a more competitive heat for Derfenna Art last time, it was also run on very quick ground. Progeny of Excellent Art generally tend to be far better with cut in the ground (7% strike-rate on good to firm, 21% on both soft or heavy) and today’s conditions will suit far better, with his capability to handle the going an obvious plus, but her performance last time out suggests that she’s still on a good mark, and will continue to improve when conditions are in her favour. Seamus Durack had a winner for these connections with his last runner, so the yard is obviously in good heart and George Baker has a 21% record when riding for the yard which is also an obvious plus. Although only priced at around the 5/1 mark, I’d have Derfenna Art at around 7/2 and he’s a bit of value at his current odds. He’s still unexposed in Handicap Company, still on a capable mark and conditions are ideal, so is worth a small investment today. Take the best odds guaranteed if possible, especially as horses from this yard have been known to be very weak in the market close to the off but still run big races. Bets 16:25 Chepstow – Derfenna Art; 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power (bog)

[The Jockey Thread]

Re: The Jockey Thread

Can you assess form using imagination ?

I'm guessing you've had a few beers and that but just wanted to save this comment here, unbelievable if you actually think this!

[Flat Racing Saturday 25th August]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August A devilishly tough handicap to solve and one in which you can back any number of runners and still not get a return. Firstly, HARRISON'S CAVE (15:40) can be excused a poor effort in a competitive Irish 1m4f handicap as it came only 6 days after he’d had a hard race at Royal Ascot and if back to that sort of form shown at the Berkshire course today, then he has a big chance at a trip he stays. A strike rate of 2/18 means he’s not one of the stable stars by any stretch of the imagination but scored both of his victories last season, at 1m2f and 1m5f. He stays much further though, with a fair effort in the Chester Cup over 2m5f, when the draw was against him and the hold-up tactics just didn’t pay off. As mentioned earlier, his Royal Ascot effort was very creditable and a replication of that effort today would see him bang there. Although that was over 1m4f, he travelled so well and stayed on really nicely into 3^rd, not getting the best of passages through by any stretch. He subsequently bombed out at the Curragh but that came too soon no doubt and he hasn’t been seen since, so he should be definitely over his exertions. Harrison Cave looked to be much better than a 94 rated animal at Ascot and although he’s running over 2f further today than on that occasion, I think the likely strong pace and softer conditions will mean he can travel through the race really comfortably before hopefully having enough in the latter part of the contest. He’s rated 96 but has shaped on occasions like an animal with the potential for a three figure handicap mark and although he’ll need to be to win here, the fact is that this 1m6f trip looks to be perfect for him on a few pieces of evidence, he’s adaptable regarding the ground and is in perfect hands of Aidan O’Brien. This race has likely been the target since the poor showing at the Curragh and he should be no bigger than a price of around 12/1 in this race, so at the current prices he’s a little bit of value. Also, BLUE BAJAN (15:40) looks to be regressing and for a ten year old, he has every right to do so. That being said, he’s really excelled as he’s got older and was putting in some very decent performances at the start of this season, efforts which would be almost good enough to win this contest. Although his form faded a bit subsequently, he returned to form on his latest start over this C&D and wouldn’t have to improve much to be in the shake-up, with the race more likely to be run in a more suitable fashion than last time out. He’s very capable of running 10lbs better than his current mark on a going day, so is worth a try at these inflated odds. A winner of the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last year and runner-up in the Yorkshire Cup over this C&D, he held his own at Group level on a couple more occasions before struggling in the Lonsdale and the Doncaster Cup and David O’Meara quite rightly brought his season to a halt. You’d expect that his form wouldn’t be at the same level this time around and to an extent you’d be right, as he was well beaten in the Henry II this time around but his form before this in 2012, in a Listed race at Nottingham and over too sharp a trip in a Newmarket Group 2 was far from bad form, and I think showed that most of his ability remained intact. After some poor performances at York and Sandown in Group Company, he was entitled to fall down the weights but ran a bold race last time returned to handicap races off a mark of 100. That was when 4.5 lengths behind Mount Athos who has gone on to win a Group 3 and it was definitely a step back in the right direction, especially considering he wasn’t given a very hard time of it, the race not being run at a strong pace (which he’d prefer over this sort of trip) and his form immediately before it hadn’t been too promising. It’s likely that he’s been prepared with this race in mind subsequently and dropped a further 2lbs in the weights; he looks quite appealing from that perspective. Although he fulfils none of the trends and the winner is usually a more unexposed type, the fact is that Blue Bajan is quite well-handicapped on even this season’s best form, was back to something like a creditable showing last time out and in a race that is likely to be strongly run, he has stamina, guts and ground adaptability all in his locker. He’s definitely not worthy of these big odds. Bets 15:40 York – Harrison's Cave; 1pt @ 16/1 Betfred, William Hill (bog) 15:40 York – Blue Bajan; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Flat Racing Saturday 25th August]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Allegedly it's pouring down in York and has been for the last 45 minutes or so.

[Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th There’s no way that DUBAI PRINCE (15:05) should be priced at around the 6/1 mark, especially considering that he impressed in a muddling race on his penultimate start over this C&D, before being a blatant non-stayer over further last time out. This isn’t a great race I feel and if Dubai Prince can get return to form now dropped to what could be his ideal distance, then he should take this affair quite comfortably. Highly touted as a juvenile, he obviously had his problems once joining Godolphin and it wasn’t until September that he was seen last year. He won his reappearance effort over the 1m1f trip but disappointed subsequently in an Ascot Group 1 and also in Meydan, efforts that can obviously be excused. He made his return over this course and distance, coming nicely clear in the closing stages and beating Fury very easily by 4 ½ lengths. The way he finished that race suggested he was ready to take his chance at further once again, running at Goodwood over 1m4f. After making a promising move on the outside, he soon faded and he finished well-beaten, not showing the requisite stamina to land a blow. Although his trainer claims he may have some physical issues within his races which is why he can sometimes disappoint, today’s conditions may be more suitable. Firstly, the trip is perfect, having winning form over this distance. The rain York has had won’t be of any nuisance either, as his two victories since leaving Ireland have come with some cut in the ground and it could well be that the rain-softened ‘Good’ surface should encourage him to let himself down. This certainly doesn’t look a strong Group 3 and Dubai Prince has always promised to be much better than this level. With plenty to suit, this could well be the day where he starts to fulfil that promise, especially with Frankie Dettori taking the mount been a much more positive jockey booking than Ahmed Atjebi. Stipulate being priced as favourite is hilarious, as he hasn’t really shown enough to warrant that and that has provided opportunities further down the field for value. I’d have had Dubai Price closer to the 7/2 or 4/1 mark than his current odds of 6’s, and in a weak race, I’m confident of a strong showing. Bets 15:05 York – Dubai Prince; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

[Flat racing ~ Thursday 23rd August]

Re: Flat racing ~ Thursday 23rd August ANDERIEGO (15:05) probably looks a bit too ‘obvious’ having won on his last two starts, both over this C&D but David O’Meara really looks to have found the key to this horse and further progression looks likely, and in a race that will probably be run to suit then he still looks a good bet today. He’d had some fair form for Dermot Weld in Ireland last year but lost his way a fair bit and took his time to find his feet for this new yard. After some experimentation with different trips, this mile distance really saw some rapid improvement, with a second and two victories to his name since going up to this trip for David O’Meara. The first of these victories over this C&D, off a 13lb lower mark was particularly taking as he finished so strongly and although some will argue that in his last time out success, off 7lb lower than today’s rating, that he got the run of the race being close to the pace in a slowly run affair, he was obviously dossing in front a fair bit and had to do plenty of the donkey work in the home straight, so is value for a little bit more than the winning margin suggests. You usually wouldn’t want to be taking slowly run races as gospel, but the fact is that there looks to be very little pace on in this race, even accounting for the fact it is a big field. That stands Andereigo in good stead, especially as he’s seemingly adaptable regarding what happens with how quick they go. That can’t be said for many of these hold-up types here and although a competitive enough affair, I expect Andereigo will go extremely well. He obviously handles conditions, has the assistance of Kieran Fallon once again, is well-drawn in stall 6 and won’t mind sitting prominently if needs be. He may not look much of a price really in such a seemingly competitive race but I’d have him as a clear favourite really at around the 11/2 mark. Racking up a three-timer will be difficult but he has plenty to suit today and he looks too appealing a bet to overlook. Navajo Chief would be my next idea of a bet, as he has the best 7lb claimer on in the country, comes from a yard in-form and wouldn’t mind a slowly-run contest if one occurred. I do get the impression though that Andereigo could be slightly better treated today, as I believe he’s capable of achieving a three figure rating very shortly, so he ranks as the bet. A very competitive listed race, with three in Sequence, Pale Mimosa and Bite Of The Cherry coming into this contest with recent wide-margin successes under their belt. The largely disappointing Firdaws completes the four most prominent in the market but I do think that DANE STREET (16:15) has been largely ignored by the market thus far and is worthy of support, even though she’ll obviously have to improve on her effort last time out. She didn’t seem right then though, which could explain why the 57 day absence and she’s been reported to now be in “cracking form at home” and that obviously bodes well, with the better ground and stiffer trip also big positives, she’s far from out of this. She’s had four starts to date and the impression she gives out if that she’s yet to get her ideal trip, having looked like wanting further when running well behind the now extremely smart Princess Highway at Leopardstown and even when winning her maiden over 10f at Fairyhouse (not a bad contest, four individual winners come out of it). The way in which she went about winning that race suggested further would definitely suit, staying on particularly strongly and also that genuine good ground or quicker would also be of benefit. She never looked happy on her last start, which could well have been down to the testing conditions she faced, as she doesn’t really have the action for a slow surface, but it was a particularly odd ride nonetheless (met trouble) and is probably worth ignoring altogether I’d have said, as she’s much better than that. Now upped to 1m4f and having her first try on quick ground, questions can be obviously be asked to whether she’ll enjoy it. That being said, she’s always shaped as if this trip would be within reach and her actions suggests that quick ground won’t be a bother to her, so I’m not particularly concerned on either of these fronts. I’m more concerned with a couple of her opponents, with Pale Mimosa looking particularly smart when hacking up by 15 lengths last time out. She has the pedigree/action to handle the quicker ground and is a big danger, but in a competitive race like this I wouldn’t really want to be taking 11/4. Sequence and Bite Of The Cherry were subject of two genius rides from Ryan Moore but won’t get the same time of it today you’d have to think and the latter will most likely be found wanting, whilst the former should be priced more towards the 3/1 mark and is worthy of opposition. Firdaws has been a real disappointment and although bred to appreciate the trip, along with shaping better than the bare form suggests last time (hampered, should have been 3^rd) the fact is that she’s generally a bit exposed and vulnerable to one more lightly-raced, accompanied by the fact that she’s probably priced on the reputation of her dam and yard. Cracking Lass will have to be coming here with steam coming out of her ears if she’s to win off an absence like that in this sort of contest. Whilst Aniseed will likely outrun her odds without winning . Dane Street faces what is likely her ideal trip, she should appreciate this better going and is seemingly in much better form at home than when last seen on the track. William Buick is riding so well at the moment and is booking is an obvious positive around York. She’s overpriced at these odds given that she doesn’t seem to have particularly much on figures to find on her best form (which I fully expect her to show) and is well worthy of investment here today. 16/1 is a ridiculous price given she should be closer to 8/1 and I’m advising a slightly bigger stake than normal. Bets 15:05 York – Andereigo; 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog) 16:15 York – Dane Street; 2pts @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Aug 22nd]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Aug 22nd ANCIENT CROSS (14:00) is a hold-up horse which around York isn’t always the ideal place to be here on the sprint course but he’s drawn around quite a bit of pace, has fallen to a good mark and looks to have been plotted up for this contest, so is worthy of interest especially at this double figure price. A real Michael Easterby improver, being rated 63 in 2009 and flew up the handicap ranks, he has winning form at York off a 6lb lower mark and his last victory, coming on softer ground at Newcastle in June 2011, was from his current rating of 95. It would be an obvious thing to say that “he’s handicapped to win again” but I believe exactly that, especially as he ran some very good races off a three figure handicap mark and there’s still some mileage yet in this rating of 95 if he’s back to his best. Ancient Cross has caught the eye on more than one occasion in 2012, staying on strongly on his penultimate start over this C&D before not being given a particularly hard time last time out (jockey eased up and then started riding again, before easing down completely thus exaggerating the distance beaten). Today’s contest should be perfect for Ancient Cross. He handles any ground from good to firm too good to soft, so any further rain won’t be a concern (not forecast). There’s plenty of pace on that side of the track with Lexi’s Hero and Captain Dunne likely nearby front-running angles and it should ensure that the selection gets a good tow into the race, obviously a positive for a hold-up horse of his type. Kieran Fallon on board is an obvious plus too, given his 5/15 record on Michael Easterby trained runners. As most of them rides came on Hoof It, it’s obvious that Easterby has a high opinion of Fallon to entrust him with their stable star, so his booking on this one today catches the eye. He should be no bigger than a 9/1 chance for me, so even though this race is bit of a lottery, he’s worth siding with to small stakes. START RIGHT (16:50) is drawn wide and is probably priced accordingly with the assumption being that it’s a big negative. It usually would be if the plan was to sit prominently but a repeat of the hold-up tactics used on his last two starts would mean that it wouldn’t inconvenience too much. Start Right is still on a good mark after a really troubled but promising outing at Glorious Goodwood and he’s unlikely to face the same amount of problems in-running, so is competitively priced today. He was very useful for Luca Cumani, winning over a mile at Glorious Goodwood in 2010. He subsequently put in some solid efforts in very competitive handicaps, including a 2^nd at Sandown before being sold to Godolphin. Not seen until this year’s Dubai Carnival for this stable, he finished in the places twice, importantly on one occasion over this 1m2f distance. This proved that he definitively stayed the trip, especially as he was probably given too positive a ride (sent for home a long way out). This is important as his efforts in the UK had suggested that he might not be quite effective at the trip. Start Right returned to the UK and ran in the Lincoln at Doncaster, sent off a relatively short 8/1. He never landed a blow and the experiment with the Visor was quickly abandoned. There was plenty of promise though at Newmarket in June, coming off a three month absence, being far from knocked about and staying on well in the closing stages, especially given the handling. It was a performance of promise given he’d have probably been expected to come on for the run. He did exactly that, improving significantly at Goodwood last time out, proving again that the 1m2f trip was fine. He was given much too confident a ride by Silvestre De Sousa that day, leaving plenty to do and when finally asked for his effort, he met trouble and couldn’t make the ground up on the runaway leader in Landaman, who got first run. He should have finished 2^nd. Although drawn wide, there are plenty of winners who have won from double figure draws over this C&D, and stall 17 has the perfectly respectable record of 4/23, much higher than what you’d usually expect from such a wide berth. Obviously he’ll need luck in-running but I expect he’ll be dropped in at the back off a decent pace, which is likely considering the amount of runners in the field and the presence of Suits Me. Start Right is up 2lbs after Goodwood but looked then, and also on his past form that he still could be much better than a 100 rated animal. He doesn’t deserve to be double figures on the basis of that Goodwood run and although Sir John Hawkwood will be a tough nut to crack, the fact is that he’s not much of a price and that presents opportunities further down the field, with Start Right being one of them. Bets 14:00 York – Ancient Cross; 1pt @ 14/1 BetVictor (bog) 16:50 York – Start Right; 1pt @ 12/1 Boylesports, William Hill (bog)

[Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st of August BABY DOTTIE (16:45) gets her ideal conditions for the first time on turf for quite a while and although she’s probably a little bit more effective on sand, she’s on a mark that I think she’ll be able to take advantage of on turf, especially over this ideal trip and at a track which her pedigree suggests she’ll handle. She’s only 1/19 on all surfaces which is a concern, but ran really well only two starts ago, when beaten less than a length at Lingfield. That was off this mark and although she didn’t back that form up last time out, that came on softer than ideal ground and over a 5f trip which is quite obviously too sharp for her. I really don’t understand why they keep running her over the minimum distance, alongside letting her go off relatively short prices, as she just doesn’t have the raw speed for 5f. On the basis of that Lingfield effort however, she’s on a fair mark and I just feel today she’s overpriced and is worthy of investment. The 73 day absence isn’t too much of a concern, especially as she has win and placed form off much longer breaks and Pat Phelan can easily get one ready after a break, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Brighton is a unique track and that could cause problems for a horse who hasn’t experienced it before, but Baby Dottie’s sire doesn’t have a bad record with his progeny here in recent seasons (4/24, three individual winners) and that provides hope that she’ll handle the course. I’ve always thought that Baby Dottie can run to a rating in the mid-60’s once racing over 6f more often and although that doesn’t give a huge deal of space, given she’s currently rated 57, the fact is that I feel she should be more like a 6/1 chance in this weak contest. Memphis Man being priced around the 5/1 mark shows how weak the race is and I won’t be surprised if Baby Dottie plays a big part in the finish. The market will tell the full story, especially coming after a break but if the rain stays away and she gets the breaks, then she’ll go close. Bets 16:45 Brighton – Baby Dottie; 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Flat Racing Monday 20th of August]

Re: Flat Racing Monday 20th of August SPACE WAR (17:20) won’t be long in striking considering the support (12/1 into 5/1) that came in for him late on last time out, especially for a yard that are rarely completely wrong when landing a touch. With the race almost certainly going to be run to suit, a surface that doesn’t hold any fears and a much depleted handicap mark, he’s set for a bold effort with the first time blinkers likely to have a positive effect. He hasn’t won since joining Michael Easterby but put in some big efforts last year, notably in a strong York claimer and also off a handicap mark of 84 over 10f. His best two efforts last season came over that trip but he’s perfectly capable of winning at today’s trip of an extended mile, especially when the race is likely to be run at such a frantic pace. Potential pace-setters include Light From Mars, Cono Zur, Position and Charpoy and a good gallop will be perfect for Space War, especially as he stays further and can sometimes be keen if they don’t go quick up front. He hasn’t run on polytrack for a while but handled it on debut nicely enough, so there isn’t any doubts on that front to me and the first time blinkers are also interesting. Space War shapes as the type who could benefit from some headgear as he has looked a bit weak in a finish on occasions and the first time blinker strike-rate of 12% in recent seasons for Elusive Quality progeny is from terrible. If the blinkers sharpen him up, then he has an excellent chance of cashing in on this mark and running well, as he’s so well-handicapped off a rating of 72. With plenty to suit today, he shouldn’t be a double figure price and is worth a small investment. A race with a mix of progressive types and those who’ve fallen to a good mark, but it’s not out of the question that they’ll go too quickly early on and that might be the undoing of a couple of well-treated rivals, and Space War would definitely be one to benefit it that did occur, thus making him the bet. Bets 17:20 Wolverhampton – Space War; 1pt @ 16/1 BetVictor (bog)

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August ARRIGO (14:30) is perhaps a very predictable selection from me, as I seemingly constantly bring up the fact that ‘foreign raiders’ are overpriced mainly due to the fact that they aren’t trained within the UK or Ireland. Arrigo has some solid form in Group Company in Germany and Qatar and should relish the 1m5f trip, having shaped as if 1m4f in the past had been on the sharp side. If he stays, he should be in the mix at the finish and is overpriced. Ex-German trained who made the move to Qatar after a bold effort in a Group 1 in Italy, a fast finishing 2^nd to Campanologist. He shaped as if he’d stay further then, having took an age to find his feet and make his challenge and that bodes well on his first try at the 1m5f distance. Arrigo had also shaped at 1m3f that he was in need of much further to be seen at his best, so this trip should be ideal, especially with a good pace likely to be set by the John Gosden pacemaker Dartford. There’s also suggestions in his breeding that the extra distance won’t be an issue, with Shirocco progeny (also represented by Brown Panther) doing fairly well at this sort of distance with 18% at 1m5f, 20% at 1m6f. Although those statistics may be skewered somewhat by the fact they’re relatively small sample sizes, it does bode well nonetheless. Stamina questions aside, Arrigo has a chance on his bare form anyway. Although Campanologist never shows his best in the UK it seems, he’s a very solid performer at the highest level abroad and is a fair yardstick and that form is being overlooked, and it really shouldn’t be. On official ratings, Arrigo has every chance being only 4lbs lower than the top-rated in the field and still looks capable of progression given this emphasis on stamina. He does have a 233 day absence to contend with, but his Qatari handler seems highly touted in that part of the world and Arrigo has run well fresh anyway, so it might not be such a big issue. Effectively, he’s overpriced on his form abroad, shouldn’t have too much difficulty with the trip and if he’s fit and raring to go, far from deserves to go off a double figure price. As he’s currently priced that way, a small wager is in order in what is a competitive heat. KAKATOSI (15:40) hasn’t been in any sort of form since December but has had excuses on the past three occasions on turf and has such fallen to a nice looking mark. With conditions to suit, likely more prominent tactics used and Jimmy Fortune back on board, he’s more than capable of outrunning these big odds significantly. Kakatosi is a horse that relishes decent ground, seven furlongs and being towards the front of affairs. This was emphasised by his three consecutive victories in 2010 where he looked like he’d be a horse more than capable of playing a hand in Group races. Possibly as a result of his specialist distance and the distinct lack of pattern race opportunities, his confidence was dented somewhat and he hasn’t been in the same form since. That being said, he showed real promise at Lingfield in December, where just being run out of things in the closing stages over a mile (a trip that is pushing his stamina, even on an easy track like that). He didn’t back that form up next time out but has had excuses on turf, thus his handicap rating plummeting. His turf reappearance came on soft ground, a surface that doesn’t suit before running far too free in a first time visor, not standing a chance with the fractions he set (was interestingly well-backed in the market, so Andrew Balding obviously thought the ability was still there then). Last time out he was dropped to 6f and ridden by an inexperienced apprentice. He was held-up, which doesn’t suit at all and couldn’t land a blow at all, especially with the jockey still having plenty to learn in the saddle. It’s excusable I think and I’m willing to give a chance to this one today, especially with the Andrew Balding yard having had two big-race successes towards the end of this week, so the yard is obviously in form. Kakatosi gets conditions to suit, there are hardly bundles of pace-setters in the race and he should be able to get towards the front of the pack, if so, he’ll definitely outrun these odds and a mark of 86 should be extremely workable on past form, a level I’m sure he’ll reach again in time. Only a minimum stake bet as he could well have lost all confidence and this may well be another run in trying to build that back up, but at the odds, he’s worth following for a little while when getting conditions to suit, today being one of them. Bets 14:30 Newbury – Arrigo; 1pt @ 18/1 Bet365 (bog) 15:40 Newbury – Kakatosi; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

[Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Ante-Post Selection GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES – YORK – WEDNESDAY 22nd July Although on the Wednesday of the first day of the Ebor Meeting, all eyes will be on Frankel, the early ante-post prices on the second biggest race of the day have come as a huge surprise to me. I’ve been stung a couple of times with ante-post bets and horses being withdrawn late on, but everything signals that MAIN SEQUENCE will be lining up and if he does so, I’d have him as around a 15/8 chance to win this race, given the distinct lack of top-class opposition and he can surely get in front, even accounting for the likely small penalty he occurs by Ted Durcan most probably taking the ride. Originally allotted a handicap mark of 79, he’s won two handicaps easily enough before making the transition to Group 3 company a winning one at the Lingfield Derby Trial, when beating one his likely rivals in this race in Shantaram. That proved his stamina for the Epsom Derby, a race in which he ran superbly in, being well-beaten by Camelot but doing best of the rest and proving himself to be one of the top horses in this Classic Generation, a crop that hasn’t proved quite up to scratch just yet. Anyone who backed Main Sequence in France last time out (

) can feel hard done by; given one of the poorest rides you’ll see in Group Company. He constantly met trouble, did well to finish 4^th and could have probably won had he got a clear run. That piece of form is clearly above any of his potential rivals in this contest. Noble Mission looks awkward in my book and although he battled well to beat Encke last time out, they hardly look the strongest of stayers to me. I may be very wrong on that, but they don’t quite look classy enough at this 1m4f distance, especially when against the likes of Main Sequence. Shantaram is a likely improver, but as previously mentioned, Main Sequence got the better of him at Lingfield and his current price is probably about right at this stage. One who could run a big race is Energizer, who did me a big favour at Royal Ascot. He’s upped in trip but I’m not particularly convinced about if he’ll stay on his running style, alongside the fact that Godolphin has a record of turning these types sour. He’d be my next idea of a bet in this race and could be worth siding with on the day though if he was a double figure price. Thomas Chippendale has a similar profile to Main Sequence in a sense (has come through the handicap route too) but does need to improve mentally for him to continue to go forward, as he's looked headstrong on occasions. It's probably not worth the risk at the current prices but Main Sequence really should pick this race up in style before a crack at the Leger. He’s got proven top-class form, was unlucky last time out, will appreciate the forecast rain but handles all going conditions and there’s plenty of room at York to get a run, so there should be less excuses for traffic problems. I’d have him at about 15/8 in this race, so the current 3/1 on offer really does look huge. Small/medium stake advised and fingers crossed that he lines up (nothing has suggested he won’t). Ante-Post Bet GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES – Main Sequence; 2pts @ 3/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill (A-P)

[Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August

15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced.

Well done with this one, you got a good price. Do think that Common Touch diving to his right out of the stalls cost my bet (Dixie's Dream) the race as he had to make up a lot of ground when the race favoured those prominent. Oh well.

[Jump Racing - Thursday 16th Aug 2012]

Re: Jump Racing - Thursday 16th Aug 2012

Hi Guys and Gals' date= Been following your selections for a while now and have decided to start posting my own selections on here that also appear on my blog [link edited] I only study National Hunt Racing so there wont be many until the season really gets going in October. This was my posting from last night but I see advised price has already gone. Fontwell 7.00 Quaddick Lake 1PT WIN @ 5/1 B365 Quaddick Lake returned to action at Worcester about a month ago after a period point to pointing and won very comfortably. He is up 10lbs tomorrow, but is clearly in good heart and has shown a higher level of ability than this when trained by the Pipe team. The Jeremy Scott team were in good form before the break and I can see Quaddick Lake defying his penalty.

Hi Kev, Thanks for joining, you got caught in the spam filter due to the link in your post. I'm afraid we don't allow links until you've been around here a while, so do please continue to post nonetheless. As for selection, posting selections with out of date prices isn't really ideal, especially for people wishing to follow you. As it's your first post and you only joined today, it's fine. I'm sure in the future that when you update your selections, you'll post them on here at the same time with the current prices :ok

[Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 16th of August DIXIE’S DREAM (15:15) has been screaming for a drop to 7f after some solid efforts at a mile, not looking to fully get home the past twice. He’s drifted out to a good price this morning already and is well worth investing in, even though there’s a potential lack of pace in the race which could scupper his chances. He was a winner over 7f in May off only a 5lb lower mark, looking to have plenty of potential to go on from that as he had to come wide to make his challenge, an effort that should be marked up from the bare form. He has done to some extent, running a bold race last time out. That was over a mile at this track and Dixie’s Dream travelled better than the rest for a long way, but lacked much of a change of gear in the closing stages and he faded out of it. It’s obvious that he does “stay” a mile, but I do get the impression that for such a strong travelling type, this 7f will be of more use in improving on his current rating. He’s certainly handicapped to continue to improve, as a mark of 82 isn’t insurmountable given the promise he’s shown this year. Dixie’s Dream handles most ground, looks in form and has the assistance of Ryan Moore, all of which are obvious positives. This isn’t a particularly strong contest with plenty having fallen in the weights and having a bit to prove, whilst Dixie’s Dream still has the scope to be rated around 90 at some stage this season and the fact that he’s still definitely in form makes him an attractive enough betting prospect today. There’s only one pace angle in Zacynthus and it could well be a dawdle pace-wise. Dixie’s Dream does often settle well but I can imagine he could well be a bit keen if they don’t go quick enough from the way he goes about his races, which is a slight concern. I had him at around the 4/1 mark, so the current price is well worth a wager, even accounting for the possible lack of pace in the race. Bets 15:15 Newmarket – Dixie’s Dream; 1pt @ 13/2 Boylesports (bog)