ivailobg

Thank you! It's been a lot of fun and pleasure!
Congratulations to cookro and Larkin22!

If neither of you are picking Aston Villa or Leeds tonight then I will allow a 12.30 saturday deadline 

Euro tour 3 gets underway today. 3 huge price outsiders for me and 3 slightly more likely. Bottom line in this is I would expect Price to win this but in these events we've seen some big prices get to the latter stages. Once again Price Vs Petersen will be a key match for his chances. 

1.5pts E/W K.Ratajski to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 14/1 bet365
1.5pts E/W D.Petersen to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 20/1 bet365
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1pt E/W D.Chisnall to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 33/1 bet365
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0.5pts e/w D.Evans to win Euro Tour 3 Grand prix 200/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w N.Kurz to win Euro Tour 3 Grand prix 250/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w M.King to win Euro Tour 3 Grand Prix 150/1 paddypower

Could see it very early on in this tournament and that win over Price was key. Devon Petersen wins at 66/1 
German Darts Championship +103pts
Darts 2020 - +126pts

… and indeed they do both win. Semi-finals :
M.King Vs J.Clayton
D.Noppert Vs D.Petersen
* J.Clayton Vs D.Petersen final 

Very poor from Mensur. What a mad session of darts. MVG is out. Wright is out. Durrant is out. Mensur lets me down for the 14/1 accy but it's money back with Paddy and so -5pts there. Quarter finals draw :
M.King Vs J.Wade
J.Clayton Vs D.Chisnall
D.Noppert Vs D.Gurney
D.Petersen Vs K.Ratajski
I thought King looked good but I find he can't keep it going for these long days. Chizzy looked good also and it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the final. In the other half I'm hoping Noppert can beat Gurney and Devon can beat Ratajski but either way this tournament is wide open.
1pt accy - King / Clayton / Gurney / Ratajski - 16/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses) 
Happy to lose the accy if one of Noppert and/or Devon can win
German Darts Championship +12pts
Darts 2020 - +35pts

Third round gets started at noon tomorrow and then we'll have the Quarter-finals, Semi-finals and final all in the same day. It's looking like it's best to be in the bottom half of the draw here, especially now that Price has gone out in Round 2. One I do like the look of tomorrow is Mensur Suljovic to beat James Wade. Mensur didn't look too impressive in the 2nd round but he got the job done with a 96.27 average and he was 2-0 down in that match. James Wade beat Nico Kurz 6-2 and managed a 94.60 average. It's pretty close between the pair but I'm going with Mensur to win this bout.
There's a few I like the looks of in a few other ties and so I'll try with another 4-fold accy.
MVG Vs M. King
M. Suljovic Vs J. Wade
P. Wright VS J. Clayton
D. Chisnall Vs N. Aspinall
M. Hopp Vs D. Noppert
D. Gurney Vs G. Durrant
D. Petersen Vs R. Cross
K. Ratajski Vs J. Cullen
5pts M.Suljovic to beat J. Wade 11/10 paddypower
1pt accy - M.Suljovic / D.Noppert / D.Gurney / D.Petersen - 14/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)

Yes, yes, my man Devon wins 6-5 from 4-0 down. He is here to win this weekend. That brings up the full house and a 14/1 accy.  +22pts
German Darts Championship +17pts
Darts 2020 - +40pts

Tabern really poor last night. Didn't even start playing until 4-0 down. Had  a 70 average up until then. Ended up losing 6-2. One away from a handicap he should have easily covered. 2 I like today and the first is Danny Noppert to beat Adrian Lewis. Noppert is a really good player and he looked good in qualification too. Lewis will need a 95 average to win this, I feel.
The other I like is Mensur Suljovic to beat Jeff Smith with a handicap. Smith still doesn't feel me with confidence and that match should be a easy win for Mensur
5.5pts D.Noppert to beat A.Lewis 8/11 bet365
6pts M.Suljovic (-1.5 legs) to beat J.Smith 4/6 bet365
1pt accy - M.King / D.Noppert / Suljovic -1.5 legs / D.Petersen - 14/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

Qualification matches get underway tomorrow lunchtime and despite liking a few of them, there isn't nothing nice enough for me to tip it up. Well, apart from one match. I am taking on Smith tomorrow and I'm taking him on with Alan Tabern. Tabern beat him in 2017 and even last match they played was 6-4 Smith. Smith is having issues with doubles at the moment. Serious issues where it is in his head, so I'll take the handicap also as cover.
2pts A.Tabern to beat M.Smith 11/2 paddypower
3pts A.Tabern +3.5 legs to beat M.Smith evens paddypower

The 2nd European Tour event of the season takes place tomorrow. A break from the PDC Home Tour event, the German Darts Championship will run over the course of 2 days. Gurney is the defending champion here, when he beat Ricky Evans in the final, 8-6.
The top 16 of the PDC will be here along with the remaining 32 players come from qualifying events that have happened in previous months.
I'm going to break this down and have a couple as usual. In the top half of the draw is MVG but I have a feeling that he is going to have quite a few players giving him scares and very early too. I like Aspinall this week. I thought he was quite unlucky in the last event and it normally takes an unreal performance to take him out. He is 11/1 this week which is probably abit skinny considering he needs to take out MVG and then another big name in the final but I will go win only on him. The other I like the look of in the top half is Suljovic. Oh, and a tiny bet on Boris Koltsov who scores so well that you just never know. 
In the bottom half, I'm going to take a few. I'm actually going to leave Price alone. He has won 3 events in a row and hasn't lost in god knows how many matches but he's 4 or 5 to 1 this weekend and it's just too short. I can't see him winning this weekend but ofcourse I could be wrong. I'm going to go with Devon Petersen to beat Price. A repeat of a final not long ago in the Autumn Series where Petersen was flying ahead and let Price nick it in a final decider. Revenge perhaps. Ratajski was tempting but after watching him today, his scoring wasn't strong enough for me and I get the feeling that he would flounder in a final. 
2pts N.Aspinall to win German Championship 11/1 paddypower
1pt E/W M.Suljovic to win German Championship 45/1 bet365
1pt E/W D.Petersen to win German Championship 66/1 coral
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0.5pts E/W J.Cullen to win German Championship 66/1 bet365
0.5pts E/W D.Noppert to win German Championship 80/1 bet365
0.5pts E/W B.Koltsov to win German Championship 250/1 coral
 

I'll take Ash Carty to beat O'Donnell this morning. Carty beat him 6-1 the last time they played and has won both h2hs. I'll take lines after his display in the last championship league group. Hill and Clarke are still looking in nice form and I'm not convinced by Bingyu. I'll take a specultive punt on Ochoiski. I would take anybody to beat Ronnie at 18/1 in the 1st round of a tournament because if he can't be bothered he will just go for anything. Fair play.
2.5pts A.Carty to beat M.O'Donnell 13/10 bet365
2.5pts O.Lines to beat N.Saengkham 23/10 bet365
2.5pts A.Hill to beat C.Bingyu 13/10 bet365
4pts J.Clarke to beat A.Carter 13/8 bet365
1pt B.Ochoiski to beat RO'Sullivan 18/1 betfair

The English Open gets underway today.
Lots of bets for me as usual in this event. It's a big event won by Selby last year. You'd have to say he's playing well enough to be involved again. I like a few in the top half. Bingham was tempting for me but he just lets me down far too much. I'll follow Gould again and chuck a few points at some big outsiders.
2pts E/W J.Higgins to win English Open 16/1 betfred
2pts E/W M.Allen to win English Open 18/1 unibet
1.5pts E/W S.Maguire to win English Open 50/1 unibet
1pt E/W M.Gould to win English Open 66/1 betfred
0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win English Open 80/1
0.5pts E/W M.Davis to win English Open 400/1 unibet
0.5pts E/W E.Slessor to win English Open 325/1 betfair
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To the Punters Lounge family,
It is with deep regret that we must share some tragic news with you all. BillyHills aka Graham Sarson sadly passed away over the weekend after suffering a heart attack. Graham was a hugely popular figure within the PL community and had become a much-loved person amongst the staff team.
Graham has been a part of Punters Lounge for a number of years and has played a key role in contributing quality content to the forum and site. His horse racing tips were the stuff of legend across the gambling industry and his management of the Last Man Standing and Tipster Competitions provided many of us with some fun and laughs over the years.
Since the devastating loss of Punters Lounge owner Paul Ross, Graham has played a pivotal role in helping the site to remain active and keep growing in the way Paul wanted. Our thoughts and love go out to Graham's wife Suzy, his family, and his friends at this awful time.

A new circuit for the calendar this year so no stats to go on.
Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas start on the front row, no surprise there then. A better showing by Red Bull this week and Charles Leclerc will be happier with his Ferrari this time round.
A tricky week for bets but here goes;
Hamilton is 4/11 and Bottas is 5/1, that just gives me a little profit if Bottas finishes in the first 2 E/W, I think he's due a decent start and has been going well all week.
Leclerc starts 5th and is 8/13 to finish in the top 6, i think that's a gift when you think Albon is 1/3.
I'm expecting a clean race and Over 17 finishers is 13/8 with bet365, that looks decent value.
A little value bet can be had with Vettel to win his Group on bet365, he's up against Gasly, Kvyat and Raikkonen and is priced at 3/1.
This weeks match bet is on Perez to beat Stroll at 5/6
Bets
Bottas EW 5/1 Hills 
Leclerc Top 6 Finish : 8/13 Hills
Over 17 finishers : 13/8 bet365
Vettel to win group 3 : 3/1 bet365
Perez to bt Stroll 5/6 bet365
 

Grid pretty much as expected with Merecedes on the front row, I suppose seeing Max Verstappen back in 5th was a little surprising.
Hamilton is 2/7 to win again and I wouldn't bet against him in the outright market. Bottas at 3/1 is no value at all.
Verstappen is 4/6 to get on to the podium from 5th while some will like the look of Carlos Sainz at 9/4, its just too risky for my liking.
Top 6 betting has some tempting bets, we have 7 drivers at odds-on but I like Albon at 6/5, he plods on and I can see him coming through late as long as REd Bull dont use him as a guinea pig again.
Bet365 are doing some special bets to drum up some business, I like the look of the Combination Podium Spots, they have Bottas and Verstappen at 10/11 for both to finish on the podium and 4/5 for them not too, I reckon its going to be harder than they think and will be backing for at least one of them to fail.
Going to have a Race Match bet treble this week, Sainz to bt Norris, Gasly to bt Kvyat and Raikkonen to bt Giovanazzi. it pays 11/4 for the treble
 
Top 6: Albon 6/5 bet365
NO Safety Car 11/10 bet365
OVER 17 finishers 6/5 bet365
Bottas/Verstappen one of them NOT to finish on Podium 4/5 bet365
Match Bet Treble 11/4 bet365 (Sainz, Gasly and Raikkonen to bt team mates)
 

Northampton vs Cardiff
The EFL Cup 1st Round dominates the domestic football in England this weekend with a range of matches kicking off at 3pm BST on Saturday afternoon. It's an interesting schedule for the clubs to navigate and one game we are previewing involves League One side Northampton versus Championship club Cardiff with the game being held at the Sixfields Stadium.
Northampton will be bursting at the seams to get stuck into this season after their dramatic promotion via the League Two play-offs last season having qualified in 7th place on points per game. The Cobblers have been hit by a couple of big name departures in centre back Charlie Goode moving to Brentford and striker Vadaine Oliver rejecting a contract offer and leaving for Gillingham. Manager Keith Curle has looked to counter these players leaving by bringing in striker Joe Nuttall from Blackpool, centre back Luka Racic from Brentford, and keeper Jonathan Mitchell from Derby. Mixed pre-season friendly results suggest anything could happen with this team's performance.
Cardiff narrowly missed out on promotion back to the Premier League last season. Neil Harris saw his team gate crash the play-offs with a superb spell of form after the restart but they lost 3-2 on aggregate to a Fulham side who were eventually promoted themselves. The Bluebirds have seen the departure of super sub Danny Ward back to his home town team of Huddersfield but the arrivals of Kieffer Moore from Wigan, Jordi Osei-Tutu from Arsenal, Oliver Denham from Manchester United, and Chanka Zimba from Blackburn have left the fans feeling their squad is probably slightly stronger than last season already. Harris has also been keen to emphasise the importance of getting results in the cup competitions.
As a Cardiff fan, I love the fact that we have got two Wales games and a Cardiff game to look forward to this weekend. This never happens! Unfortunately, we are without both Moore and Will Vaulks who are two of our biggest players. Northampton will be riding a crest of a wave but I'll be interested to see how tight their defence is without Goode in the back-line. I feel we should be looking to win this and I'm expecting to see a strong starting line-up. For all my sins and naivety, I'm backing a narrow Cardiff win!
Cardiff to Win @ 2.09 with VBet
BTTS @ 1.70 with Bet365

Walsall vs Sheffield Wednesday
Live coverage of the EFL Cup 1st Round is being shown across the weekend and the second match being shown is the game involving League Two Walsall and Championship side Sheffield Wednesday in a 2:15pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon at Banks's Stadium. On paper, this should be a straightforward win for the away side but is there any evidence that backing the home team is worth it?
Walsall finished in a comfortable mid-table position last season and manager Darrell Clarke will feel his side are now in a position where they can make a push for at least the play-offs with an aim of a return to League One. Striker Rory Holden has been brought in from Bristol City with goalkeeper Jack Rose coming in from Southampton. Winger George Nurse has also been signed from Bristol City on loan. Emmanuel Osadebe and Hayden White have also been drafted in. A number of players have left so it'll be interesting to see how balanced this squad is now.
Sheffield Wednesday will be hoping to start a tough season on a positive note. The Owls will start this season on -12 points after falling foul of Football League regulations. Manager Garry Monk has had limited funds to improve his squad but he has made a few intriguing acquisitions including Elias Kachunga from Huddersfield, Chey Dunkley from Wigan, Josh Windass from Wigan, Izzy Brown from Chelsea, and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Manchester City. A large number of big name players have departed the club including Steven Fletcher, Fernando Forestieri, Sam Winnall, Morgan Fox, and Sam Hutchinson. The team only managed 1 clean sheet in their last 10 away matches.
One thing to note is that the goals tend to fly in during Walsall's games with over 2.5 goals being scored in 6 of their last 7 home matches. Sheffield Wednesday have also seen over 2.5 goals in every single one of their last 6 away matches. So there's a high chance we'll see goals here. I think you have to fancy this evolved Wednesday side to win a game against a Walsall team that will probably provide solid opposition but will ultimately be left wanting.
Sheffield Wednesday to Win @ 1.95 with Gentingbet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.80 with Betfair

Derby vs Barrow
The EFL Cup 1st Round continues into Saturday with the action starting early in the day as Championship club Derby host League Two new boys Barrow in a 12pm BST kick-off at Pride Park. It's a baptism of fire for the Football League debutants who haven't had any domestic league games to prepare for this clash against a side that are two divisions higher than them.
Derby have come into this season with a quiet sense of optimism about their campaign. Manager Phillip Cocu saw his Rams side nearly gate crash the play-offs last season after winning 5 straight league games in a row only for an end of season slump of just 1 win in their final 6 league games to eradicate their hopes. Cocu has made some shrewd moves in the transfer market this summer with a number of cheap and free arrivals coming in such as centre back Mike te Wierik from Groningen, attacker Cian Kelly from Bohemians, young midfielder Olamide Ibrahim from Manchester United, goalkeeper David Marshall from Wigan, and centre back Matthew Clarke on loan from Brighton. The departure of striker Chris Martin to Bristol City could be a blow.
Barrow will be relishing this opportunity to show the Football League big guns what they are all about. David Dunn has been given the task of leading the team into their first ever League Two campaign after the departure of former gaffer Ian Evatt to Bolton. Dunn has brought in a lot of new faces including centre back Tom Beadling from Dunfermline, forward Luke James from Hartlepool, centre back Matthew Platt from Blackburn, and attacking midfielder Callum Gribbin from Sheffield United. Is it too much change in too short a time?
Once again, we're facing a game that is incredibly tough to call. You have to fancy Derby given they've won all three of their most recent encounters with lower league opposition in cup competitions but this is a wildcard opposition in Barrow. I think if Evatt was still at the helm then I'd be willing to back the Bluebirds to give their opponents a game. I feel this could be a one-way affair though with the home side taking a comfortable victory.
Derby -1 @ 2.10 with Betfair
Derby HT/FT @ 2.05 with Boylesports

Middlesbrough vs Shrewsbury
The 1st Round of the EFL Cup continues this week with the majority of fixtures taking place after some sporadic action last week. In this opening preview, we take a look at the 5:30pm BST kick-off on Friday evening between Championship side Middlesbrough and League One club Shrewsbury at the Riverside. The home side are heavy favourites but are the bookies under-estimating the away team?
Middlesbrough enter into this league season as one of the dark horses in the Championship. The team might not have changed much from last season with the only arrivals so far being striker Cole Kiernan signed from Sunderland for an undisclosed fee and centre back Grant Hall joining from QPR on a free. Ryan Shotton, George Friend, and Adam Clayton have all departed the club on free transfers with the latter two joining Birmingham. A 5-1 win against local rivals Newcastle in a pre-season game has given the club confidence and with Football League expert Neil Warnock at the helm you'd have to be a fool to rule them out of challenging for the play-offs at least. However, Warnock has always treated the EFL Cup with apathy at best so don't expect a full scale Boro assault here.
Shrewsbury finished in a safe mid-table position of 15th last season when League One was curtailed early. Sam Ricketts remains as the man in charge and there is an enthusiasm to see the team change from its more pedestrian 3-5-2 to a more attack-minded 4-3-3. A few potentially shrewd additions in the mould of winger Josh Daniels from Glenavon and Rekeil Pyke from Huddersfield along with the loan signings of Scott High from Huddersfield, Marlon Fossey from Fulham, and Matija Sarkic from Wolves could be what is needed to aid that transition in philosophy. Pre-season has delivered mixed results so far so it's hard to tell how they'll be set up for this game.
The EFL Cup is always a chance to make some profit on an underdog. It's notoriously renowned that Warnock's sides usually bow out of this competition early as he fields a mixture of reserves and youth players to rest the senior players. Will he do that here or see it as an opportunity to get the first team players closer to full match fitness? Shrewsbury will no doubt be at full strength but is that strong enough to beat this Boro side in transition? A lot of questions but I probably have to back even a weakened Boro side to get something here.
Middlesbrough to Win @ 1.75 with 888Sport
BTTS @ 1.91 with William Hill

Rain is forecast to fall at Spa half way through the race today, so caution is advised if piling in at long odds-on about Hamilton to winning again.
He's a 2/5 shot at best and although he should win without much fuss I'm not sure it's worth the risk. At around the same price (4/11 Hills) a Safety Car looks the more certain wager in my eyes. Even without rain it looks a fair bet we will see some trouble around this very long circuit.
Great to see Verstappen and Ricciardo on the second row, its a long way down to turn one and don't bet against one of these drivers upsetting the Mercs right from the off. It maybe there only chance as once the race settles down Hamilton and Bottas maybe hard to catch.
Who would have thought after half a dozen races in 2020 that we would see both Ferrari's starting at 500/1 or more, its a shame whats happened with them but battling for a couple of points is all they can hope for. Vettel is 2/1 to bet his teammate and that looks decent value in a coin flip.
Value is not easy to find but the 4/1 about Ricciardo making the first podium for Renault for a long time is too big and worth a small bet.
Top 3: Ricciardo 4/1 bet365
Safety Car YES 4/11 Hills
Under 16.5 Evens bet365
Vettel to bt Leclerc 2/1 bet365

One of my favourite races of the year, always full of drama and a track where Mercedes dont dominate as much as some.
Stats

Grid position

 
9/10 Winners from front row 10/12 Safety Cars Average number of retirements is 4  
 

Well if nothing else Valtteri Bottas has just made this race more interesting by snatching pole from Hamilton.
Still the bookies make Lewis favourite at 4/6, Bottas is 11/8 at Betfred.
All the fuss afterwards was about Nici Hulkenberg finishing 3rd in the Racing Point after such a long time away from the sport. Persoally I think he will feel it in the race and the 4/1 about him NOT finishing looks worth a bet to me. I'm going to back Lance Stroll to beat Nico as insurance at 6/5.
The podium looks nailed on to be Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen in one order or another, with a 50/50 battle with the Mercedes making a bet a bit risky its probably worth taking the odds about Verstappen finishing in the first 3.
Safety Car was 4/11 last week, its now 2/7 and still looks highly likely and the amount of finishers has stayed the same.
 
 
Bets
Hulkenberg NOT to finish 4/1 bet365
Stroll to bt Hulkenberg 6/5 bet365
Verstappen Podium 1/2 Hills 
Under 17.5 Finishers 4/9 bet365
Safety Car 2/7 bet365

No surprises in qualification and unless we get some rain, which is unlikely, this could be a very boring race.
Hamilton is so far superior that even the 2/7 is starting to look like value, your basically betting on reliability.
The only glimpse of a bet on the outright would be to back Verstappen EW (1/3 odds 1,2) at 8/1 with Hills or Betvictor. Red Bull goes well around here and Max should give Bottas a run for his money. Vertsappen is the same price as Hamilton to win it for him to finish on the Podium so no point in backing him in that market.
My outside bet this week is for Daniel Ricciardo to squeeze into the top 6 at a tasty 11/2 at Hlls, i've always thought the Aussie suits Silvertsone and his grid position of 8th gives him a chance to progress further. We may need help but its worth a punt.
Bet365 are betting in groups and Ricciardo is Even money to beat Hulkenberg, Gasly and Ocon, that looks a decent bet.
Bets
M.Verstappen EW 8/1 Hills
D.Ricciardo Top 6 11/2 Hills
D.Ricciardo to win Group 3 1/1 bet365
Safety Car 2/5 Hills
Under 17.5 Finishers 2/5 bet365