Dave Mardell
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Posts posted by Dave Mardell
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Re: My Poker Novice Diary - Comments Welcome
You chance of hitting a club on the next card is approximatly 4/1 against, assuming the nine remaining clubs in the deck are all in play. Someone betting at this flop may also have 2 clubs which is why many people want 5/1 before they call. a 4/1 shot at the turn and a 4/1 shot at the river equats to a 2/1 shot over all. (against). His call should be based on the money in the pot (pot odds) and how much more he thinks he can get if he hits (implied odds). However in this spot he not only has a draw to the nuts (important distinction to just a low flush) but he also has two overcards to the flop. Providing he isnt against 2 pair or trips, or indead AJ or KJ he also has 3 aces and 3 kings to hit to give him the best hand. There is also a small chance he could make a straight if a Q and T come off but this is a small chance to happen so is not worth factoring. 9 clubs + 3 kings + 3 aces = 15 outs. 10x2 cards + 3 on the flop have been dealt, leaving 29 in the deck yet to come. of those 29 cards he can hit 15 at each turn of the card. 52% chance of improving at each turn of the card. Makes it correct to call a pot sized bet. Or you could just stick it all in and give yourself two chances to win the hand. If he folds great. If he calls the pot odds are bang on for you to make your hand.I'd be interested to hear what some more experienced players would say about this hand, as its a problem I come up against a few times. -
Re: My Poker Novice Diary - Comments Welcome Ross for the love of god do not try and learn the game playing No Limit. You will loose, loose often, and loose fast. There are SO many things you need to get under your belt before you have a prayer, like starting hand selection, dominated hand concepts, counterfeited hands concepts, pot odds etc etc. In No Limit good players can bet the exact right ammount to put your drawing hands under pressure and the betting there takes a LOT of skill which I dont think your ready for just yet. Better that you play Fixed Limit to begin with to start i think. For one you can only loose so much in any given hand. Secondly its a lot simler to calculate your pot odds, implied odds etc because the players around you can only bet or raise a fixed ammount. Sure its boring, and sure you wont win much, but its a good way to learn the basics without putting to much at risk. Certainly its a better start then play money tables. You might find that the reason your making money at the moment is a result of one of the more interesting paradoxed of poker. The less you know the more likely you are to win. You dont KNOW that you shouldnt be chasing a flush for all your chips but if you hit a few your gonna be way ahead. Its a short term blip but it feels like your really good. Further more new players being more apt to call in bad spots, tend to pick off more bluffs than a more experienced player, and as such this just reinforces the mentality to play a lot and call a lot. Oh and if you really do want to learn how to play NL the best place to do so at first is in tournaments. A low buy in affair will get you a lot of play for your buck, and if you do get lucky youll probably make the money. In a cash game its only a matter of time before your picked off if you hit a few lucky runs and loose it all again. Just a suggestion like. Feel free to ignore me
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Re: Do you have records of your poker sessions ? I keep a simplified record system. Nothing as fancy as many pros but loosely on a piece of paper I have a grid of seven days, divided up into morning afternoon and night. A keep track of my balance at the end of each period and a total for the end of the day, and week. Basically the idea being i can see what days are loosing days and what time of days are better for me. Seems I do best in the early morning and late at night. Seems people are in a hurry at these times either going to work or going to bed or tired or drunk or whatever. Ive also noticed that I suffer the most varience on a Sunday. I either win a HELLAVALOT or loose a HELLAVALOT. I put this down to the fact that many many total newcommers play sunday, and while they are great, when your sat at a table of 9 of em if you dont find some cards your pretty much doomed. They dont know when they should fold damnit!
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Re: Doing your bankroll I played a larger than normall STT while smashed off my head on scotch once. Won it. Picked of every bluff perfectly lol. Dont think that would work out in the long run though :)
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Re: Rounders........... Ive been playing these at Ladbrokes ( they call em Ladders but its the same thing). 4 levels, 3 go through. The top level is HARSHLY difficult as many good players buy straight in here, but I ajust for this by deloping a overly simple Pre-Flop all in strategy. They hate it cos they can outplay me if all my money is already in. Sometimes I get lucky.... Deposited about $20 at the start of the month, and have had 2x1st, 2x2nd, and 2x3rd. $2000 for the month. Nice :)
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Re: If you're playing now... All on this thread please.
Oh right yeah, I see what you mean now. Few times ive been in a dog cuaght my cards, literally jumped out of my chair only for them to re-hit the river :)What's twisted there? I didn't claim i was unlucky, but I'd rather he'd have just made his set on the flop and not got my hopes up. -
Re: If you're playing now... All on this thread please. Some twisted logic there Dave :) Walked into aces, got lucky, he got lucky back, but you were always batting a 4/1 dog when the money went in....
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Re: How much more is a bigger stack worth? Aha. Right yes your probability of winning any given tournament, when all players are equal in skill, is directly proportional to the % of the chips in play you have in your stack. So if your down to the last two and there are 15,000 chips in play, and you have 10,000 you chance of winning is 66.66%. If you had 7,500 it would be 50% and so on. However this is very subjective as it assumes your playing against a clone of yourself.
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Re: How much more is a bigger stack worth? I guess Ive totally miss understood then....ignore me :)
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Re: PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread Well today marks the end of my first month "back" in poker. And my ladbrokes account is singing to the tune of $2060 from about $10-20 initial deposit. Sweet :) $3 buy in ladder tournaments. You dont win em often, but with returns of $500 $300 and $200 you only need to pike one here and there and your laughing.
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Re: The Punters Lounge $1000 Freeroll - FREE Entry! Im down. in principal ...time permitting. When you commit to a date ill commit to a yes :)
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Re: How much more is a bigger stack worth? You state the folding would still leave you twice his chips so im going to assume your talking about a situation where blinds are not huge. If he has been moving all in A LOT then youd pretty much have to call any hand that figured to be a favourite over a random hand. If this is the first time hes done it, or is doing it very infrequently you have to respect a big hand and fold accordingly. You might even have to lay down AJ or TT in this spot. "it's right to call with anything better than a one in three chance of winning the hand" Im not convinced of this lets assume you are dealt AQo and he is dealt AKs. Four times in a row. 4000 and 2000 in chips. You call he wins - 2000 vs 4000 You call you win - 4000 v 2000 You call he wins - 2000 v 4000 You call he wins - 0000 v 6000 Or in other words - unless you get lucky while your the chip leader i think your destined to go broke calling a 3/1 dog hand. Without actually checking the match I think a 2/1 lead entitles you to call a 2/1 dog hand. When you level in chips you want a hand that figures to win more than half the time. If you have a 10/1 lead you can call any two etc etc. Some useful links: Hand vs Hand Odds calculator: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/ Its not perfect. It doesnt account for splits. If you put in AA vs AA it says each hand has a 50 50 chance of winning the pot lol. Still useful though Heads up Holdem % http://www.jazbo.com/poker/huholdem.html
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Re: How much more is a bigger stack worth? It kinda help here if you know relative hand strengths. Persoanlly Im inclinded to call almost any two cards if doubling him up will still leave him with less chips than me. But im not exactly a good heads up player If you fell you can outplay him however, you really shouldnt be giving him oppurtunities to double up in a shoot out all in. Like wise if you feel your outclassed you dont want to give yourself the chance to be bluffed off you big hands and should be the one moving all in preflop. The danger tho of denying him the shoot out is he may just keep moving all in....and then you need to take a stand. usually an Ace or Pocket pair will do the trick.... Also remember the relative sizes of the blinds. I think its plays a greater role in chosing to call or not that the cards themselves. Imagine you got yourself heads up, equal in chips and the blinds are only 50/100. Id fold any hand except AA to an all in raise i think. If you got 7500 in chips hes gonna have to go steal a lot of antes before your in any real trouble so why call with a marginal hand. If the blinds are really high however you have to be a bit looser. You need to be prepared to gamble it up a bit as a few steals will cripple you. Your opponent is likely also aware of this as well and doesnt need to have much. He may be moving with a pair of 2s or A2, and thus and pair, or ace is likely to be good, and any two big cards wouldnt be a huge dog. You might be walking into aces but at this stage of killer blinds if you are its just unlucky
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Re: My first pre flop all in I dont fault the guy for calling with 63c because if your hooping it up with AK hes not a massive dog, figured he can get away from it if it misses, but maybe figured if he makes a straight or some such it will be well hidden and he can take a big pot. However Reraising, and then calling all in is just retarded. Glad the kings held up. This is where player notes come in real handy though. I dont know if Will Hills have em but when you notice a player is exceptionally strong, or exceptionally weak I like to add a brief note, maybe with the hand that just played out as an example. That way should you end up playing them again you know if you should avoid them, or get stuck into them Just remember - even crappy players can make a full house sometimes :)
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Re: An idea for the next PL Poker Season Well I played a $5 SNG at paradise earlier today. Which I won. $25 so ive recovered the loss from PL Tourny and made another $10 on top. Nice. They still wont let me withdraw my godamn money though. I dont want anything more to do with Paradise.
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Re: An idea for the next PL Poker Season How about lowering the buy in but allowing a rebuy...
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Re: If you're playing now... All on this thread please.
Good luck with those. Pretty tough to cash out in but when you do the prize is well worth it. Just remember that you only need a top 3 finish. No need to get involved with another big stack when its down to the last 4. Oh also note that level 2, and only level 2, refunds your buy in for 4th place.Ahhh well never mind:( currently giving the ladders comp a go at ladbrokes. Got through a $3 tourney now about to start a $10 one :hope -
Re: Punters Lounge X - the final showdown Well done winners. Paradise wont let me withdraw the excess $16 in my account. Apparently the minimum withdrawal is $50. Not ammused. Definatly wont be using em again :)
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Re: Punters Lounge X - the final showdown Im DM Muddle A rather irritating play on my surname that ive grown quite accustomed too :loon
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Re: If you're playing now... All on this thread please. Hey do you go unter the alias Mr_Plow at ladbrokes? Think ive run across you in the ladders a few times....usually see you at the final table a lot if you are he....
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Re: Punters Lounge X - the final showdown I am in. Go easy on me eh :)
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Re: Did i play right hand?
I disagree here. The turn and river were a 4 and a 2. For him to be beaten somone would have had to called a bet on an AK7 flop with either 44, 22, or 35 If i was moved in against on the river id think it entirely more likely my man had A2 that 22....but thats just me. Without know how the betting went down its hard to say.However I believe the only time you played tremendously wrong was the final all in call. I dont know how many chips were in the middle but after all cards are exposed, two pair is often second best. -
Re: Where are the small buy-in STT's? Racing Post poker offers buy ins as small as you are asking about. However RacingPost poker is the most crooked site on the internet. I had an admin ban my account whilst I had a tourny still running. They also prevented me withdrawing the remaining funds from my account. Why was I banned. For mentioning I had played against Dave "Devilfish" Ulliot at UltimateBet.com I do not mention RP Poker to reccomend them, only to take a cheap dig and forwarn anyone that is thinking of using them. The lowest buy in I have seen at a REPUTABLE site is UltimateBet.com with a $1 + $0.10 Good luck
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Re: Did i play right hand? I dont think there was anyway you could NOT loose all your chips on that hand. When its down to the last 8 your giving up far too much folding top 2 on that board. The only hand that was beating you was three of a kind, and with AK on the board ands AK in your hand the odds of the two remaining aces or kings being in someones hand are pretty slim. He coulda had 77 but again unlikely after a big raise. Bear in mind that a man comming in with AQ is unlikely to give up once he hits an ace on the flop, and if hes got some goo like A7 of course hes gonna be right with you. Ida lost all my chips in that spot too and I been playing 3 years. Some hands just play themselves and theres nothing you can do about it.
Rounders...........
in Poker
Posted
Re: Rounders........... I came 3rd in a Level 4 last night for $200. Bit annoyed with myself because I feel I shoulda had second. I was the low man on chips. Blinds were big. I hadnt seen anything resembling a hand for ages and was dealt 22. I thought "right, this is it, now or never". The huge stack moved all in, the second stack called........and i folded !!!!! I dont know what came over me. I mean sure if the second stack looses i come second by folding but once youve made the money, 2nd is worth $100 more, first is worth $300 more. I shoulda called for a chance to tripple up and win! I mean heck I was gonna move in if i was raised - so why did i bottle it when they both went all in before me? Sure enough they both had AX didnt make a pair and a 2 came on the river anyway. Annoyed with myself really. Still $200 is great none the less.