Dave Mardell
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Posts posted by Dave Mardell
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Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final
Always nice when a bets a winner after the first half! Congrats to all on the +2.5 :clapIve taken "Over 2" @ 1.9 Most people are touting this as over 2.5, and I like the security of stake back if exactly 2 goals even if it lessens the odds :) -
Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final Ive taken "Over 2" @ 1.9 Most people are touting this as over 2.5, and I like the security of stake back if exactly 2 goals even if it lessens the odds :)
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Re: In-Play Betting on Euro 2008 with Betfair They probably hit suspend any time a team looks like scoring rather than when the ball actually goes in.
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Re: All trebles/doubles possible system At the risk of sounding like an idiot... I don't quite understand how this is "all trebles possible"
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Re: bets for euro 2008
Think I might do something like a score double with the odd change in my account. Seems to be little else of interest.Just had a look at tonights games and decided to go for:- Spain 2-0 Sweden 1-0 2 small singles and a double for interest. -
Re: Russia v Sweden I'd like to think Russia would win here. Certainly they had 3 to 4 GOOD changes against a woeful Greece, and yet still only managed to convert 1 of them. Sweeden present a tougher opponent than Greece, and could just as easily knick a one nil as russia could. Factor in that the Swedes only need a draw and under 2.5 seems like the only reasonable prediction for this game. However at around 1.6 there doesnt seem to be much value here (if any). Another no bet I feel. Roll on the quarter finals :)
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Re: Greece v Spain My memory is fuzzy here but wasn't spain in a similar situation during the last world cup? They were through, rested the team for the final group game, and them promptly got dumped out by france in the final 16. I would expect Spain to have learnt it's lesson last time and try and keep the winning momentum but I hear talk of 10 members changing? This game is a no bet for me. No reason to think the reserves cant win but who knows? Perhaps the goal line market offers some value but not the win market. Certainly if they DO field the reserves today then a bet on Italy to beat them next might be interesting. Betting on history to repeat, all be it with Italy repleacing France by virtue of Italy THUMPING France 2-0 :)
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Re: Euro 2008 8 folds out of 12 help! First take all of your winning selections Then convert the odds to decimal: Top Fraction divided by bottom fraction + 1 i.e 6/4 = 6 divide 4 + 1 = 2.5 Once you have all 8 decimals mulitplythem together: 2.5 * 3.0 * 1.5 Multiply that by your stake 18.5 * £5 And thats the winnings for your 8 fold. Note that if the last game comes in you will have 9 winning 8 folds. As a rough estimate you can just do your 8 fold winning times by 9
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Re: need some help plz ppl To elaborate on what DJ said: Whilst "what you think" will lead you to the bet you want to make (in your example 1-0) the odds stil need to be right. And that doesn't always mean "high". For example, having decided you like a 1-0 bet you have to ask yourself what you think the chance of it happening is. Lets say you think your team will win 1-0 one game in 4. If you placed the bet for 3 games in a row you would have made 4 bets. 3 would lose. 1 would win. Thus to break even you would have needed to get 3/1 each time you bet. With this information you can then decide if a bet is "worth it". This is known as value. Thus if you was getting 4/1 or more its a profitable bet (even though it might not win THIS time). If you are betting at less than 3/1 then even if you win THIS time, you'll lose in the long run if you keep having this bet. So the trick is - being able to accuratly estimate probabilities and find errors in the bookies odds. Good luck :)
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Re: Scorecast betting query A scorecast is basically a "double". You are betting on first goal scorer doubled with the correct score. If the player in question does not start your bet becomes just a single on the correct score, settled at the odds of your score prediction. Thus your bet was a loss because you got the score wrong. This is why scorecasts are such a con. If you only get the score portion they settle at correct score odds, but if you work out the odds of a player scoring first multiplyed by the odds of your correct score you will find the scorecast odds are much MUCH lower. Avoid.
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Re: Goalpoker - Can't/Won't pay its Winners Did they ever come through on their offer of the Johnny Chann invitational?
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Re: Jaded's 7 Card Stud tips When ive played seven stud in the past ive made gratious use of the "Print Screen" key to get a grab of whats out there before people fold. Very powerful edge in my opinion...
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Re: The Right to Complain??? Was the reason you lost connection them or your internet connection. If its your ISp you have no comeback as its not thier responsibility..
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Re: Anyone fancy £10 + £1 live MTT in Southend-On-Sea tonight? (Tue)
For me this is totally unacceptable. Its bad enough that we have to dodge collusion (which is even harder to detect live than online - by the managment at least), without having to contend with deck mechanics too... If the house cant provide a dealer, it shouldnt be charing a registration fee (the +1 bit)tables are self dealt until the final table. -
Re: Being in love (with poker) means never having to say you are sorry, but
Indeed. I always love it when I get my money in against a guy with 4 or less outs. Sometimes they hit. More often they don't :)I'd have been delighted actually -
Re: Goalpoker - Can't/Won't pay it's Winners
Yeah I mean thousands of people have payed a buy in for a prize that was never there....so goalpoker is effectively fraudulant if it doesnt refund the buy in, OR guve the full cash value of the package to the winners. It cant NOT send the winners and NOT refund buy ins. Else they are just stealing peoples money. Also if you need 30 runners for the Johnny Chan it looks like their offer for a subsitute tourny was equally empty.I was just thinking.. surely all the people who entered all qualifying games for the WSOP should be given a refund considering the prize that they contributed was hot honoured. -
Re: Just A Theory.... Yeah Ive noticed that late friday and saturday nights tend to be wild. Defo pished up peoples coming in, seeing some poker on the box and playing!
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Re: The evils of gambling Thanks for the all the support guys. The idea of financing myself with freerolls is tempting! Gonna leave off the rounders final till my head is right again. Im debating if I should just plump for the level 5, hope to win it and get myself into a profit inspite of my stupidity! or if i should build a bankroll playing the level 3 over and over again. I have 5 buy ins at level 3, and you need a top 4 finish. Baring some horrible luck I shouldnt really bust... Will have to work that one out!
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Re: The evils of gambling
Yeah I only play poker. Unfortunatly most of the poker sites offer "side games" and its a very tempting prospect when youve just had AA cracked by A8 ALL IN.... Yesterday I lost a $20 SNG in the first hand in such a way. Moved in at the turn and the guy called for his gutshot. I was so steaming I loaded up blackjack and stuff $20 on a hand to get it back in one hit. I then proceded to "martingale" myself into oblivion. I'll be back. Assuming I bow out earlier of the rounder tourny (which is likely to be honest) it will be end of september most likely. Im also gonna lock down the deposit limit on all my poker rooms so that I cant do it to myself again!I now play poker and only poker and there is no better place for any kind of information than on this website. -
So as you know, Party Poker are offering a $300 bonus for party points accrued. Id built my deposit up from $550 to $1100. A nice little double though. I then proceded to blow through the whole lot on blackjack. Oooops. Depostied another $500. Oooooops. Built that up to $1000. Should stopped there at break even point. Nope. Blew the lot again. Oooooops. Proceeded to deposit $1000. Ooooops Spunked the lot on roulette. Oooops I have now had to transfer some money from my savings account just to bring current account back to £0. And its only the 5th. Needless to say I was a total arse. I brought it on myself. The only reason I post this is to serve as a warning. DO NOT play blackjack. Also you'll understand why im not around for a bit until i get my finances right. I do still have a level 5 entry to Prima's level 5 rounders. Mayber I can win that and right myself ;)
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Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off
Its the worst hand in a FULL game, because it has no straight or flush potential. However it is FAR from the worst hand in a heads up situation, and is beating 10 possible holdings....well it had to happen didn't it - the 'worst' hand in the game -
Re: Collared Tshirts - One for Paul Ross / GAF
I think you might be detracting from the point a bit Paul. As best I can understand the desire for shirts is born out of a need to identify each other at live events. By having the web address instead of the logo we would simply be walking billboards, which while I can understand you desire for that to happen, would detract from the original point....I think it really needs to say PuntersLounge.com - the .com bit is sooooo important imo. -
Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final
Nice shout on the +3. I was actually a bit cautious over 2.5 so took the +2 at lower odds with a stake refund on two. Course now I wish id had a speculative punt on the 3.5+. CHING. Easy to say that after the event though. Heh