Master Joe
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Posts posted by Master Joe
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Re: Joe's Tips Perth: 6.30: DAWN DEVOY Improving on every start with much improved display to finish second in a stronger race last time over Course & Disance, given the fact he raced keen he did considerable well to finish 2nd on ground softer than ideal. Back on more favourable ground today and this race is an easier task than last time. 8.00: SPEED KRIS On his best form ever at the moment thanks to Cheekpieces when finishing 2nd in a similar race on his penultimate outing and got within two lengths to the very progressive Commericial Flyer last time despite suffering interference at the second last. Looks to be still improving at age of six.
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Re: Joe's Tips Profit Standing after 5 days: £10 WIN On Every Selection: Profit: £148.75 Will post my tips for tonights evening racing later.
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Re: Are you racing this week? Going Windsor on Monday:dude
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1.30: NIGHT SPOT 4 year old and still improving with every run. He likes to go from the front in his races, so should find this speed favouring track playing to his strengths. Was 4th in a similar race last time out, leading from the front and only got collared close home under a bigger weight than todays, should find this lighter weight much easier and ought to run better. You've got to follow unexposed lightly weighted handicappers in these sort of races which he is one and I feel Tiger Tiger, Shazan House, and My Paris will have a very hard task conceding a stone to this very progressive horse. 2.00: GOODRICKE Has the best Rating of these with two impressive victories this time last year before slightly disappointing at Royal Ascot. Put on a much improved display when winning a Class 2 race last time out when lost ground at the start and had to come wide to make his challenge. I was very impressed with the speed he showed that day and should have too much speed for these rivals today. 2.30: MONA LISA Was very unlucky in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Ascot in September when blocked in running when making her challenge. Would have been much closer that day and could have won with a clear passage. This Group 1 Filly, one of the best of last year, should find this race alot easier today as the Stables 3yos are in tremendous form at the moment. 3.00: SOMNUS A three time Group 1 winner and last years Official best sprinter is a tip in itself. Was an improved horse last season and still only 5 years old to suggest more improvement could come. Could prove hard to beat even with his Group 1 Penalty. Striking Ambition has only won Listed races and I'm not sure if he's good enough. 3.35 JONATHAN JOSH Was 7th, 2 lengths behind the wnner in a Group 1 race last time in New Zealand. Ok so you may think horses in New Zealand may not be up to scratch with our Group 1 Performers, but he put in a respectable and very good rating that day to suggest he could well turn out to be Group class over here. Trainer has good record with select team on the Flat and must be of interest if there is money for him; has raced on firm/heavy. This horse could be anything. 4.10 TAKODA The one to beat here after a promising success last time out,A colt very much on an upward curve, he sluiced up over 5f at Folkestone last time out and can capture this much stronger heat. He has the best ratings here and if he jumps out fast, he wins! 4.45: GINGER SPICE A Coronation Stakes entry ran very well on her debut finishing second to a decent yardstick and open to more improvement, should make a bold bid.
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Re: ****Race Of The Week: Group 1 1m Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes**** Source: Attheraces IT could be his greatest challenge yet. But after successfully negotiating the dodgem ride on Gypsy King at Chester last week, Kieren Fallon is fancied to find the key to Antonius Pius in the Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. There are few horses around with the natural ability of this exasperating Danzig colt, but last year he had Aidan O’Brien and the hapless Jamie Spencer reaching for the wigs after throwing away victory in the French 2000 Guineas and Breeders’ Cup Mile (pictured). On both occasions he would have won had he gone through with his effort, but it’s surely significant that he has been kept in training to land the all-important Group One win that is needed to cement a stallion career at Coolmore.
O’Brien clearly hasn’t lost faith in the horse and it has to be a positive sign that a month ago he publicly earmarked this race as the starting point for Antonius Pius’s four-year-old career.
And then there is the Fallon factor. Not even Jamie Spencer’s greatest fan would argue he covered himself in glory during his tenure at Ballydoyle and while no blame could be attached to him for the colt’s sudden swerve into the rails at Longchamp, the rider’s eroded confidence can’t have helped in later races.
Fallon, on the other hand, is imperious just now, having started his new job in the best possible way with those brilliant Guineas victories on Footstepsinthesand and Virginia Waters.
He is the right man at the right time for Antonius Pius, who will have been trained to the minute for his first race of the season as not even O’Brien would bank on him being better later in the year given his explosive temperament. Once you take the pin out, the grenade is likely to go off.
The key to the horse’s chance will be to get him settled at the rear of the field, so expect a Virginia Waters-style ride from Fallon. O’Brien said last year that Antonius Pius has a turn of foot that "would kill a horse" and that he needs to be ridden like Nijinsky — that’s a measure of how highly he rates him.
Spencer managed that to a large extent in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but in the fastest mile race of the year and on the toughest mile course around, the colt was outstayed rather than outbattled by Azamour and Diamond Green (right).
That is top-class form though — Haafhd, impressive winner of the 200 Guineas and subsequently the Champion Stakes, was a close fourth — and a reproduction of his effort there would give him a terrific chance on Newbury’s much less demanding straight-mile track.
The ground will be an important factor, of course, but with the weather set fair for the week, it’s likely to be on the fast side come Saturday, thereby putting the emphasis very much on speed.
In a race that could justifiably be called the battle of the nutcases, the ante-post market is headed by Rakti, whose impressive, if erratic record suggests he will either dot up or finish out with the washing.
Michael Jarvis’s star can be brilliant at times — witness his victories in the Champion two seasons ago and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last year (Antonius Pius well-beaten after running much too free) — but his trainer admits that everything hinges on what sort of mood the horse is in on the day.
With the Jarvis team in cracking form, the six-year-old is sure to be a popular fancy and there’s no arguing with a record that shows he has won first time out in each of the four seasons of his career to date.
Interestingly, though, Jarvis is talking up the prospects of an Arlington Million/Breeders’ Cup campaign and with those races coming up much later in the year, I just wonder if Rakti will be as sharp as the selection this week. He also has to overcome the age stats in a race that strongly favours four and five-year-olds.
Sir Michael Stoute upset the trends boys last year when winning the race with a filly, Russian Rhythm, and now he attempts to rub salt in their wounds by repeating the feat with Chic (right).
The daughter of Machavellian has a very progressive profile, but it was noticeable how she improved in the second half of last season and with trainers all agreeing it has been a difficult winter for fillies, she may be another who will be better later in the year.
Stoute also has Arakan lined up, but the five-year-old appears just below Group 1 class and is probably better suited to seven furlongs.
Le Vie Dei Colori, a Group 1 winner in Italy two seasons ago, merits respect on his third to Soviet Song in the Sussex Stakes last summer, but doubts remain as to the true merit of that form given that Antonius Pius was badly hampered that day and Haafhd and Refuse To Bend both ran no sort of race.
Godolphin have a good record in the Lockinge, so expect a decent show from ex-South African Grade 1 winner Grand Emporium, the intended mount of Frankie Dettori, though his form on dirt in Dubai this winter leaves him with a bit to find in this company.
The fast-improving Tarfah also has questions to answer going up sharply in grade and tackling the colts, but if the heavens open unexpectedly, Autumn Glory would be worth a saver as he looks a high-class performer on soft ground.
Recommended bet: Antonius Pius 1pt win @ 7/1 (price correct as at 2pm 10/5/05) -
Every week I will put up a thread for Race Of The Week. This weeks race is the Group 1 1m Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes run at Newbury on Saturday. Here's the Final 11 Horses in the Race:
2:40 11 run Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £132,820.00 CH4
1m
No. Form Horse Trainer Wgt Jockey RPR 1(10) 920- Antonius Pius 153 A P O´Brien 4 9-0 K Fallon 2(7) 01-2 Arakan 17 
Sir Michael Stoute 5 9-0 M J Kinane 3(9) 1-12 Autumn Glory 13 G Wragg 5 9-0 S Drowne 4(4) 1d-73 Babodana 21 M H Tompkins 5 9-0 R Hills 5(8) 1419 Elvstroem 20 T Vasil 5 9-0t N Rawiller 6(3) 1421 Grand Emporium 49 Saeed Bin Suroor 5 9-0 L Dettori 7(11) 3221 Hurricane Alan 21 R Hannon 5 9-0 P Dobbs 8(6) 83-1 Le Vie Dei Colori 21 L M Cumani 5 9-0 J P Murtagh 9(1) 91-4 Mac Love 17 J Akehurst 4 9-0 G Carter 10(5) 107- Rakti 153 M A Jarvis 6 9-0 P Robinson 11(2) 1-11 Tarfah 13 G A Butler 4 8-11 J P Spencer -
Re: Testing TEST :nana :cow I'm below:
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Re: Notebook Entries Week May 10 I'm pleased connections of my favourite sprinter Ringmoor Down have decided to bypassed tomorrows 6f Group 2 and hopefully they will also bypass the 6f Listed Fillies Race on Saturday in favour of the 5f Group 2 Temple Stakes on the 23rd of May at Sandown becuase she is much better and more effective over 5f than 6f.
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Re: Joe's Tips
1st :'>Argent Ou Or (FR) 4 A P McCoy 9-2 10 10 M Pipe With leader, led 4th, ridden approaching 2 out, weakened and headed soon after Opened 4/1, touched 9/2 £1350-£300, £900-£200, including office money
MANTILLA A NON-RUNNER1st :'>Martin Ossie 8 Mr J M Pritchard 9-4 12 0 R Baimbridge Made all, left clear 3 out, driven out Opened 7/4, touched 9/4 £2250-£1000, £900-£400, £675-£300, £1000-£500, £800-£400, including office money -
Re: Joe's Tips Thanks Herp. I did a Trixie on those three horses, but only two won and I only won a miserable 50 pence :( plus my £4 back. Doing another Trixie today, the forecast prices of the three horses are 9/4, 9/4 and 10-1 and if all three win with those Forecast Odds, then I will win £198.25 :tongue2 Hereford 3.40 ARGENT OU OR Won a fair bumper in pleasing fashion on his debut last time out without given a hard time and won a shade comfortably in the end beaten a promising recruit in second. This is Martin Pipe's only runner at Hereford today and has been in excellent form with his debut hurdlers recently. Huntingdon 7.15 MARTIN OSSIE Was a low grade performer two years ago over hurdles but has improved significantly since then in Point To Point Races where he has absolutely trotted up in a canter in last three starts (Has won his last seven starts). Todays race is restricted to horses that ONLY run in Point To Points and he has easily the best form on offer here. Also has the best PTP Rider on board. Newton Abbott 8.00 MANTILLA By far the best hurdler out of these and he is running on a 20lb lower mark over fences today than his mark over hurdles so he is potentially well in. Did show a fair bit of ability in Novices Chases last Summer without winning, but today he will be seen to much better effect in this Handicap Chase. Decent value at around 10-1.
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Re: RP Rating Maiden Races for 2YO's System 2.20 Musselburgh: 76 - BLOODSTOCKTV 76 - NICO'S GIRL 73 - Garstang 69 - Little Elver 68 - Silver Rocket 67 - Sometimes Lucky 65 - Seallarain 44 - Beautiful South Selection: BLOODSTOCKTV & NICO'S GIRL -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.30 Yarmouth 99 - STEPHANIES DREAM 94 - Buzzin 'Boyzee 87 - Baytown Valentina 84 - Fusili 84 - The Snatcher 77 - Hasty Passion 69 - Haiti Dancer 64 - Al Shamara 55 - Tin And Lint 45 - Polar Blizzard Selection: STEPHANIES DREAM
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Re: RP Rating Maiden Races for 2YO's System
2nd Drawn 1 2½ l :'>Piccostar 2 R Smith 2-1 8 13 A Haynes In touch, led over 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, stayed on same pace Opened 5/2 £2250-£1000, £1350-£600
Profit: LEVEL1st Drawn 11 :'>Give Me The Night (IRE) 2 J P Spencer evens 8 6 E Dunlop Soon led, pushed out inside final furlong Opened 11/10 £550-£500, even £500 -
Re: Joe's Tips
1st Drawn 11 :'>Give Me The Night (IRE) 2 J P Spencer evens 8 6 E Dunlop Soon led, pushed out inside final furlong Opened 11/10 £550-£500, even £500 2nd Drawn 2 nk :'>King Malachi (IRE) 2 Dane O'Neill 11-8 8 12 N Callaghan Pressed leader, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on Opened 6/4 £3000-£2000(x2), £1500-£1000(x2), £900-£600(x2), £1750-£500(x2), £600-£400(x4), £5500-£4000, £4125-£3000, £1650-£1200(x2), £1100-£800, £550-£400(x2) 1st Drawn 1 Fort Dignity (USA) 4 J Murtagh 11-8 9 2 Sir Michael Stoute Held up last, switched left to challenge on outside 2f out, driven and ran on to lead inside final furlong, kept on well Opened 11/10, touched 11/8 £5500-£4000, £2750-£2000(x2), £2200-£1600, £1650-£1200, £1100-£800(x2), £825-£600, £687-£500, £550-£400(x4), £500-£400(x3) -
Re: Heritage Handicaps. Yes, I quite like these races as well, I had a few quid on Iffraaj at 11-4 in Saturday's Victoria Cup. My best Heritage Handicap win last season had to be MINE in Royal Hunt Cup at 10-1, virtually 6 or 7 horses hit the line together. But its quite hard to pick the winners of these races as there are alot of runners. How the hell could you have picked Spanish Don at 100-1 in last years Cambridgeshire!! I just checked this weeks York Cards and there are no Heritage Handicaps.
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Re: Joe's Tips Wolverhampton: 2.30 GIVE ME THE NIGHT SHe is a considerable way clear of these on Ratings and showed promising speed when second of 15 in a decent Maiden at Windsor last Month. She ran a cracker that day and did brillantly well to finish 2nd considering she started on the 'wrong side' and had to make her way over. The 3rd that day Gillipops had the run of the race and was on the correct side and she opposed again today for a 3 and half length defeat of Give Me The Night and its had to see why that form should be reversed today. Nothing else in the race has a striking Breeding and the selection should win. Windsor: 5.50 KING MALACHI Connections think this could be a Royal York horse and its hard to see why not as she was well backed for her Debut Maiden last week, showing good speed and just tiring in the closing stages to finish 3rd to two decent types. She ran green and would have came on a lot from that run and should be sharper today. Clearly a better horse than that performance suggests. 6.50 FORT DIGNITY Had a whole year off the track and ran a cracker on his seasonal debut in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket last month finishing just one length behind Norse Dancer and shaped as if he would come on from that run and more improvement is expected. Drop down in class today and is basically just facing decent handicappers and this task is easier than his most recent run.
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I have been testing this system by Paper for the past two week now and its shown me an excellent profit in Maiden Races: This System only applies for Maiden two year old Horses and the selection will be the one who has the HIGHEST RACING POST RATING. Horses that have no rating is becuase they are unraced. £10 WIN bet on the selection in every race. 2.20 Redcar: 91 - PICCOSTAR 87 - She's Our Beauty 85 - Christa Bee 66 - Suhezy 39 - Isharram Selection: PICCOSTAR ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.30 Wolverhampton: 89 - GIVE ME THE NIGHT 79 - Pix 77 - Gillipops 77 - Brenda Meova 75 - Angus Newz 71 - Titus Wonder 70 - Prettilini 60 - Bathwick Emma 52 - Gamestars Lady Selection: GIVE ME THE NIGHT
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Re: Notebook - for the flat I noted down a very eyecatching performance today from one of Aidan O'Brien's Horses: SCORPION: He was very green in this race today and will come on a considerable amount. He was being pushed along 3 out until slightly getting the hang of things and won quite impressively in the end easing at the line. The Trainer says he is one of their best horses in Training and deserves following wherever he goes. RP COMMENTS: A good maiden and a good introduction from the highly regarded SCORPION who justified heavy market support despite greenness. He was being niggled along three and a half furlongs out but he led inside the last 50 yards under a confident ride. He should go on to considerably better things. Trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "He's a lovely horse but had a few hold-ups, otherwise he'd have been out before this. The Derby might come a bit quick for him but I wouldn't rule anything in or out. We've always thought highly of him. He's one of our top horses."
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Re: Joe's Tips
A Heartbreaker if you was on Rifleman, lead all the way until the last 50 yards.2nd ½l Rifleman (IRE) 5 S Durack 2-1 11 3 P Bowen Prominent, led 5th, ridden 3 out, hung left approaching last, headed close home Opened 2/1 £1200-£600, £1000-£500, £800-£400
Castlemore just didn't take to Fences at all, he was very slow over most fences and will proberly be switched back to Hurdling.6th ¾l Castlemore (IRE) 7 R Johnson 13-8 11 2 P Hobbs Led until blundered 1st, led 3rd to 5th, not fluent 6th, mistake 14th, soon weakened Opened 7/4, touched 15/8 £1300-£800 -
Re: Draw Advantage
Its stated above if it makes a difference. For Example: BEVERLEY: High numbers have an advantage in races up to one mile. Low on soft ground. Dave, we know you are the Stalls Expert here, it'll be nice if we could have some Info/Stats etc about Stalls from you as well;)Cheers Jo Just one question though from a novice punter. Does the weather make a difference. -
Re: Shameful Haydock Plea Not many people are posting in ATR as could be. There are alot of Horse Racing fans on this board. I just started posting on Monday. I've already got a Sticky Thread with Draw Advantage so I'm doing well in this section already:clap Maybe if you posted this thread on Friday Afternoon you would have got more replies:ok I will help Bowles10 raise the profile of this excellent ATR Section, I will make more Threads and encourage people to reply:D
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Re: Kentucky Derby Yes I did mate, absolutely amazing!! Giocomo was second last I think going into the Clubhouse Turn, at least twenty lengths off the leaders who just simply went way too fast, it was just physically impossible to keep up that pace up front and if any of the leaders deserves credit, it was Closing Argument who was up there throughout and under the circumstances produced an outstanding effort to finish second. Well Done to Giocomo, but I seriously doubt if he is going to be good enough to win the Preakness in two weeks as he had the run of the race here, and with a smaller field and a more tactical affair I think he could struggle. The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico is the next race of the Triple Crown on the 21st of May.
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Re: Joe's Tips Uttoxeter: 2.30 RIFLEMAN He is a good deal clear of these on Ratings and has put in some very respectable efforts in a much higher grade than this towards the backend of last season. He was a five length third to Prins William in November (Prins William was fourth in the Supreme Novices Hurdle At Cheltenham) and again filled the third spot to another the top class Novice Hurdler in My Way De Solzen who was one of the favourites for that Cheltenham Race. He then stepped up in Grade and performance to finish an excellent third in a Class C Event at Kempton in Janurary where he was eight lengths behind Supreme Serenade. You can forget his last outing as he was very disappointing. Today he takes a significant drop in Grade from those races and has a decent oppotinity to finally get off the mark over hurdles at his 8th attempt of asking. Worcester 2.50: CASTLEMORE Rigmarole was a one time Champion Hurdle candidate, but was been badly in decline during last season and finished well behind in most of his races. These larger obstacles may sparkle him up abit, but this is a major step up in trip (been racing over two miles) and there are serious doubts as to whether he will stay this trip. I don't think he will stay and he is worth taking on against a horse who is very consistant and who stays three miles and that horse is CASTLEMORE, who while not in the same league to Rigmarole on Official Ratings, but we don't really know how good Rigmarole is and I feel he has really been flattered by the handicapper and should be rated quite below he is and Castlemore can take advantage of his big advantage in Stamina and Richard Johnsaon will ensure there is no hanging about and try to outstay Rigmarole at the finish.
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Re: Joe's Tips
1st Drawn 5 Iffraaj 4 P Robinson 11-4 8 7 M Jarvis Prominent centre, smooth headway to lead 2f out, soon in command, ran on well Opened 5/2, touched 100/30 £5000-£1500, £6000-£2000(x2), £3000-£1000(x2), £1500-£500(x5), £900-£300(x4), £5500-£2000, £1100-£400, including office money 6th ¾l Genghis (IRE) 6 A P McCoy 3-1 10 13 P Bowen Led, ridden and hit 3 out, headed before next, weakened last Opened 5/2, touched 3/1 £3000-£1000, £2750-£1000(x2), £1100-£400 2nd nk River City (IRE) 8 T Doyle 3-1 11 10 Noel T Chance Held up, headway 3 out, every chance from 2 out, ran on Opened 9/4, touched 3/1 £1100-£400 -
Re: Notebook - for the flat As I'm new, I just had a look at this thread and three horses have caught my eye in the Past Week. I shall keep contributing in this thread from now on. Ringmoor Down Raced last Saturday at Newmarket in the Group 3 5f Race. She got very upset in the stalls and considering that, she did very well to finish third and is a bit better than the bare form suggests and I think she would have got closer that day if not for that mishap. She would be sharper for that run and is properly likely to go for the Temple Stakes en-route to the Kings Stand at Royal York where she will have a leading chance in both. She is not as good over 6f than 5 and it would slightly surprise me if she runs in the Group 3 6f race at York this week. Balyan: Balyan seemed not to get home in the CHESTER CUP on Wednesday and may benefit from a slightly shorter trip. He actually travelled well for a long way and shaped better than his finishing position. He switched right 4f out then made headway 3f out but found no extra in the final 1f and was eased. This was only his fourth run and he is another with considerable potential for improvement. It would be no surprise if he is aimed at the Ebor and look out for him as well over a slightly shorter distance in the forthcoming weeks ahead. Zonergem: Had no where to go and was blocked in running at Chester on Wednesday, and his rider soon eased him when their chance had gone. With a clear run I thought he would have been thereabouts at the end. He was 3rd in last years Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and it'll be no surprise if he goes there for another crack at this 1m race and will be a big price, 20-1 Minimum. I reckon at a decent value he will go close.
Cracking Each-Way Value in The Dante
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
KANDIDATE can spring a surprise in the Group 2 Dante Stakes. He was third in last weeks 2000 Guiness and only two lengths behind Footstepsinthesand. He's already had twelve races so he is the most experienced in the field which could play an important factor in this soft ground. Motivator has only had two starts, Proclamation one start and Albert Hall has raced three times. Ryan Moore will take this horse to the front and try and gallop his rivals into submission through his racecourse experience as those three market leaders will be green still through lack of experience and could pull hard in the early stages which will consume alot of energy resulting in them not staying this longer trip than they have previously encountered. Also we saw today at York the leaders had a big advantage on this soft ground with Zero Tolerence made all in the first race and Secret History lead throughout in the Musidora, it was hard to come from the back today and many horses never got into the race. And as Kandidate will lead, its a big advantage to him. Selection: Kandidate Forecast Price is 12-1.