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DeepBlueDevilFish

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    Basics of money management

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Basics of money management It's probably not feasible to just dismiss the psychological aspect of gambling here. Everyone is going to be happier in a profit situation than a loss situation whether or not you need your betting bank. If you believe you've got a system that is going to be profitable in the long term you're probably going to be happier knowing that you'll recover quickly from the inevitable losing run rather than flounder around in a negative profit state for a longer time. Yes you could go bankrupt using fixed stakes but in practical terms this won't happen - you'd probably abandon the system when you hit your own personal "loss" threshold so the threat of bankruptcy isn't really there. Incidentally fixed profits staking may actually be the best strategy to use with DP's system (as you reduce the risk on the higher odds) Oh and Martingale is OK with an infinite bank. :loon And apologies from me too DP. :$

    Basics of money management

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Basics of money management

    Get where? I'm not being flippant, it's a serious question.
    Get into some sort of target profit situation. With a proportional staking strategy it's quite possible that on a very bad losing run your stakes could go so low that's it's hardly worth trying to get back to your starting point again (i.e zero loss / zero profit).
    That depends on what proportion and what level stakes you use.
    I was assuming DP's 10% level stakes there which he states he uses at or near the beginning of his thread.
    If your aim is really just to maximize the chance that you're in profit (not worrying how big the profit is) after a given number of bets, then you should start with a tiny stake and use some kind of Martingale strategy, reducing your stake to zero as soon as you're in profit. If you use a strict fixed stake, then there is a non-zero probability that you will go bankrupt. Most people who espouse "fixed stake" betting actually use some kind of "plateau" staking, increasing their "fixed" stake when their bank increases enough (and presumably decreasing it if their bank decreases to a frightening level). Proportional staking is just a smoother way of doing this.
    Yeh that's all true and works fine when things are going OK and your in profit or not making much of a loss. But would you really continue with a proportional staking strategy if you've lost 50% of your bank ? Is it worth your while with a much reduced and reducing chance (if your bank drops further) of getting back to a profitable situation ? What would you actually do in this situation ?

    Basics of money management

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Basics of money management Good article DP. Re Slapdash's point on proportional staking. I've found that using this form of staking will quite often result in more profit at the end of the day but that you may well take longer to get there (because it takes longer to rebuild profits after a losing run). This time aspect to staking can sometimes be over looked. For example with DP's Soccer Hot favourites system I think the chance that you won't be in profit after about 200-250 bets using proportional staking is almost double that of a level staking plan.

    Yeehaa !!

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Yeehaa !! Thanks Valiant. I bet it and then got called. I then checked, got raised and then called again so I was able to show it in the end. Didn't do me much good in the long run as I was eventually out in 650th pos.

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