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DeepBlueDevilFish

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Posts posted by DeepBlueDevilFish

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Hi Slapdash, Only just got round to thinking about your detailed reply to my concerns. Thanks for giving your thoughts. Like you say probably not too much to worry about especially if you're monitoring the win market as well. Any blatant manipulation of the place market that didn't involve trying to do the same on the win market would be pretty obvious and would probably raise the alarm bells enough for you to wait and monitor things further until the markets become more liquid. Hadn't actually considered the possibility of other SP tipsters doing this to you. :spank It's not as if you're playing for thousands of pounds so I doubt it's worth their while really. :lol

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Another busy day on this thread then Slapdash. I hinted in an earlier post how interested parties might adversely affect your selection criteria for this system and I must admit that I still have some concerns about this happening especially seeing the number of selections that are being thrown up recently. I'm probably just being paranoid but I'm not sure how you would protect yourself from bookmaker driven accounts on Betfair. From the boomakers point of view they see you getting good results on Sports Punter and no doubt a number of people following your selections as a result. They then learn that your main method of selecting these horses is from the place market on Betfair. Great they think all we have to do is chuck a few pounds at a few donkeys on the place market we choose on the races we think he'll be interested in and we'll see some action on these donkeys and make a bit more money on them and get much better books for those races. I hope I'm just being a doubting Thomas but I can't easily see how you'd be protected from this sort of retaliatory tactic on Betfair. What are your thoughts on this sort of problem ? Do you feel you've got enough safe-guards in place ?

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System I noticed that you didn't actually back Cornus over at Sports Punter so I guess that must be a bit of a disappointment. Was this just because of the lateness of the pick and time constraints or was there any other reason for not backing it as a single ? Whatever the reason. It was a good Day Slapdash. Well done. :clap

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Yeh I think the EW bet from being a good one when there's 16 runners changes to being a very bad one when there's 15 runners and imo this greatly outways any plus you have in getting early better prices. What I've done in the past in this situation is to have a quick look at the 24 hour weather forecast for the track on the BBC website. I know it's more work but it probably only takes a minute. Unfortunately for Carlisle this afternoon things aren't looking too great. It's sunny at the moment but rain is forecast by the end of the afternoon. A classicly bad situation for some more non-runners unfortunately. But :hope it doesn't happen today.

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Think I posted at the same time as you there Slapdash. Just seen your reply. I wonder if you might be best waiting in a situation like this until later in the afternoon or until just before the off if that's possible. If the runner's do get cut to 15 or less do you regard this as a huge problem in terms of the overall profitability of your systems ?

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Thanks for the detailed reply Slapdash. From your description, like you say, it's an awful lot of work and I can certainly see how slackening the requirements would make a lot more too. After thinking about it again I would probably leave things exactly as they are at the moment if I was in your shoes. EXCEPT I would drop the trebles since they certainly won't work if the doubles don't and as you don't know for sure that the doubles will work yet I think it's probably just a bit cavalier to be throwing in trebles too. And that's before you even start accounting for the extra work with them.

    By the way, one thing I can't explain about the "handicap" system is that there are some races with four or five qualifying selections and other, apparently similar, races where nothing comes close to qualifying. "Major" races seem to give fewer selections, but apart from that I don't really understand the difference.
    Can't really offer much here I'm afraid except to say the only worry I've had about the methods you're using here are that they could be influenced by Betfair market abuse from "interested parties". Especially at the lower volumes that are encountered on the place market on non-major races. But from your description it's clear you've got some other checks in place which will help minimise the risks and hopefully help you to spot anything fishy that may be going on. Everything considered it's a very interesting system. Thanks again for sharing it with us. :clap

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Thanks. It was more how you were picking the horses to go for really. I know it's based on the place part of the EW bet giving a substantially better price than Betfair but I was wondering how you quantify or decide what's substantial ? I'm guessing if you were to slacken your criteria a little bit when placing these doubles you might still be placing good value double bets and increasing your chances of hitting a good priced double as well.

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Hi Slapdash. Playing poker at the moment but like Tulenos I've been following your thread. I'll add some thoughts later regarding how you pick the doubles to go for as I'm not 100% sure how you decide on this and I'm guessing you may be rejecting (or probably more accurately not picking) some value EW doubles. You alluded to this in your write-up above.

    That was interesting...

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: That was interesting... Have to agree with GaF. Don't be fobbed off. If you've got it in black and white you're entitled to your place or at the very least some sort of comp. if they've decided to abandon the tournament. Let us know how you get on.

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