Jk
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Posts posted by Jk
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December Arsenal v Partizan There's obviously no value in backing Arsenal at 1/9, especially with our dodgey home form, so I'm going to stay away from handicaps which are equally valueless. Instead I'm going to head over back to the corners market where I fancy Partizan on the handicaps. Arsenal don't score that many corners in general, in fact in both home games this season, Shakthar 5-1 and Braga 6-0, we only got 2 corners. Braga had 0 whilst Shakthar had 3. Partizan have scored around the same amount of corners as both opponents in their away games. Our defense is still vulnerable at the best of times so I wouldn't be suprised if we give away the odd cheap corner. The line is currently set at Partizan +5 which looks big to me considering the stats and the way I expect the game to pan out. Partizan +5 Corners @ Evs - 5pts - StanJames I was also tempted by the under 9.5 corners at 7/4 but I think I'll just stick with the one bet for now.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 7th December
A grand total of 4 corners, easy peasy lemon squeezy. +7.5pts :beerBursapor v Rangers Neither team with much to play for here so I'm not expecting an overly exciting game of brilliant football. I've taken a dip into the corners market here as I often feel that with games with little to player for there are generally less corners. So far this season in the champions league, away from home Rangers had no corners against Man Utd and 3 corners against Valencia. Bursapor have done better at home with 7 corners against United and 9 against Valencia, but those were more open games with more to play for, plus Bursapor were chasing the game from early on. Under 9.5 Corners @ 6/4 - 5pts - StanJames -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 7th December Bursapor v Rangers Neither team with much to play for here so I'm not expecting an overly exciting game of brilliant football. I've taken a dip into the corners market here as I often feel that with games with little to player for there are generally less corners. So far this season in the champions league, away from home Rangers had no corners against Man Utd and 3 corners against Valencia. Bursapor have done better at home with 7 corners against United and 9 against Valencia, but those were more open games with more to play for, plus Bursapor were chasing the game from early on. Under 9.5 Corners @ 6/4 - 5pts - StanJames
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 23rd November Bah rubbish night for me in the end, -13pts. About time I had a bad night to be fair. Can't believe how poor we were tonight, truely awful.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 23rd November Right a couple of biggish priced bets for me tonight: Rosicky anytime scorer @ 4/1 - 2pts - StanJames Wilshire anytime scorer @ 9/2 - 2pts - StanJames Both start for Arsenal tonight and if Arsenal click like I expect them to tonight then there could be a few goals flying in. Rosicky gets a rare start and for someone that is playing that high up the pitch its a big price for anytime scorer imo. Wilshire also looks a big price to me, obvious talent but yet to really start hitting in the goals, could be his chance tonight and likely to play the full 90. Chelsea -1 Handicap at halftime @ 9/5 - 5pts - StanJames As most people know by now Zilina really arn't cut out for this competition and it doesnt get much harder than an away trip to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea hit a bit of a slump lately but their performance against Birmingham wasn't actually that bad, a combination of bad luck and great keeping saw them fail to score. Tonight however I feel we may see a backlash, and with a bit of youth coming in mixed with experience I fancy Chelsea to walk this 4 or 5 nil. Zilina so far in this competition at half time. Zilina 0 - 3 Chelsea Moscow 1 - 0 Zilina Marseille 0 - 0 Zilina Zilina 0 - 4 Marseille The price looks big to me considering those scorelines. Chelsea -2 Handicap @ 6/5 Also looks a big price to me considering the gap in quality, even with a second string Chelsea side.
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Re: FIFA International Friendlies > 16th - 18th November
Game played out exactly as I expected it too. France won the corner count 5-3. 21pts Staked 44.8pts Returned :beerThis is basically England B team so the odds for me are well out of line. England are missing so many first team players its rediculous. There's one or two players making their debut and with the pressure that comes for playing for England you'll expect a fair few nerves to creep in. The midfield has no real creativity, lacks any sort of balance and the defence will have never played together and I don't get the hype with Carrol, he's had one or two decent games but I don't rate him, not at this level. France on the other hand have a much more experienced side, they have a good balance of attack and defence through the mdidle of the pitch and a more settled first team will be a massive advantage. I doubt playing at Wembley will be a big hinderance as half the team play in England anyway. Blanc is slowly getting this French team back into some sort of winning form. For me on paper they look stronger in every area of the pitch. France +1 @ 8/11 - 10pts - StanJames :ok France @ 13/5 - 3.5pts - StanJames :ok France +2 Corners @ Evs - 7.5pts - StanJames :ok -
Re: FIFA International Friendlies > 16th - 18th November
Pre-Blanc yeh, but they've won 3 games on the trot, which may not sound great considering the opposition, but when you think they were losing to Belarus and Norway prior to that then it's an improvement. They've had a settled line-up with; Lloris Reveilleire - Mexes - Rami - Clichy Diarra - M'Villa Valbuena - Nasri - Malouda Benzema Perhaps maybe with Gourcouff coming in for Valbuena. This is a friendly though so perhaps Blanc may shake things up a bit.I thought the problem with France has been that they haven't had a very settled team :unsure
Ok maybe not half but 3 or 4 of them do.How do half the players play in England anyway?
Perhaps but still more experienced than England. I think Blanc might give Gameiro a start tonight and he's on top form for Lorient at the moment, as is Payet at St.Ettienne. We seem to sort of agree, but I have a bit more faith in France. Obvioulsy it's a bit of blind faith but sometimes you need that when trying to work out value. We'll just have to wait and see :okThey look quite weak and inexperienced particularly up top. Only two players called up over 50 caps.....only four players have more than 20 caps..... -
Re: FIFA International Friendlies > 16th - 18th November This is basically England B team so the odds for me are well out of line. England are missing so many first team players its rediculous. There's one or two players making their debut and with the pressure that comes for playing for England you'll expect a fair few nerves to creep in. The midfield has no real creativity, lacks any sort of balance and the defence will have never played together and I don't get the hype with Carrol, he's had one or two decent games but I don't rate him, not at this level. France on the other hand have a much more experienced side, they have a good balance of attack and defence through the mdidle of the pitch and a more settled first team will be a massive advantage. I doubt playing at Wembley will be a big hinderance as half the team play in England anyway. Blanc is slowly getting this French team back into some sort of winning form. For me on paper they look stronger in every area of the pitch. France +1 @ 8/11 - 10pts - StanJames France @ 13/5 - 3.5pts - StanJames France +2 Corners @ Evs - 7.5pts - StanJames
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Re: UEFA > Champions League > Wednesday 3rd November Shakthar v Arsenal Looking towards the goal scorers market here and I like the price on Nasri. Fabregas won't be travelling to Shakthar meaning Nasri will come back into a central position, probably alongside Wilshire. He loves playing in that position, and he's really on fire at the moment, adding some clinical finishing to his already brilliant technique. He's our first choice free-kick taker and will be penalty taker without Fabregas. Nasri anytime @ 3/1 - StanJames - 4pts Nasri 1st Scorer @ 11/1 - VCbet - 1pt
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Re: X-Factor
I think you're thinking into this a bit too deeply. As you said, it's a popularity contest, it's not a talent contest. If it was a talent contest it would be down to expert judges to decide, it's not its down to the Great British public to vote for their favorites, whether that's based on singing ability, looks, haircut, dancing or any other cuntish features is up to them. I agree with you that Rebecca has a great chance, but at the moment I just think that she isn't connecting with the audience. That can still come though, Leona and Alexander took a long time to grow into the competition. Matt, Cher, One Direction and Rebecca will be the final four, I think that's pretty dead cert now. That being so I think all the value has gone from the winner market.Their is a question been put up in the betfair forum today which makes a lot of sense. Who does Simon really want to win?..........He is taking the show to America, he needs a credible winner to launch his brand with it, who is the one he really wants? One Direction..... are they credible singers...dont think so Cher...... very hip, very street, USA would turn nose up Matt...... good singer, nice guy but is he a superstar Rebecca....... its got to be hasnt it, she has the voice and the crossover appeal and is class. Been given all the early slots, letting the more headline have their day in the sun,then push her to the fore in the last 2 to 3 weeks. Think that sums up my feelings on the X factor perfectly. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October
Thought they would take the points home when they went 1-0 up but not to be, Pizzaro did end up playing and provided the all important assist for the Bremen goal.Twente v Werder Bremen This is a repeat of the last 32 match in the Europa Cup last year, where Werder Bremen came out 4-2 winners on aggregate, after a 4-1 win at home. However, they did lose on their travels to Twente. Twente are a strong side at home, with there last defeat coming all the way back in December 2009, with a 1-0 defeat to Fenerbache. Since then Twente have won 14 and drawn 3 at home, conceding only 9 goals in those 17 games (6 of which came in the last 3 home games). They've also scored 12 in there last 4 home games. Bremen are a weaker side than that of last year. Struggling in the Bundesliga they sit on 11 points after 8 games, although recent results are showing some improvement. However they're missing several players that played in the 4-1 win last year. Ozil has moved on to Madrid, whilst Pizzaro (who scored a hat-trick) and Naldo are both out big doubts for the game. Bremens away record in this competition is poor, they've failed to win in there last 8 away games in this competition, conceding 19 in those games. I feel that the value is definately with Twente here, with there strong home record and imo a team of equal or better quality than that of Bremens Twente @ 11/8 - 5pts - StanJames -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Twente v Werder Bremen This is a repeat of the last 32 match in the Europa Cup last year, where Werder Bremen came out 4-2 winners on aggregate, after a 4-1 win at home. However, they did lose on their travels to Twente. Twente are a strong side at home, with there last defeat coming all the way back in December 2009, with a 1-0 defeat to Fenerbache. Since then Twente have won 14 and drawn 3 at home, conceding only 9 goals in those 17 games (6 of which came in the last 3 home games). They've also scored 12 in there last 4 home games. Bremen are a weaker side than that of last year. Struggling in the Bundesliga they sit on 11 points after 8 games, although recent results are showing some improvement. However they're missing several players that played in the 4-1 win last year. Ozil has moved on to Madrid, whilst Pizzaro (who scored a hat-trick) and Naldo are both out big doubts for the game. Bremens away record in this competition is poor, they've failed to win in there last 8 away games in this competition, conceding 19 in those games. I feel that the value is definately with Twente here, with there strong home record and imo a team of equal or better quality than that of Bremens Twente @ 11/8 - 5pts - StanJames
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October
Do they? Apart from Lennon and Bale, they're quite slow, especially without Defoe up front.as they have a lot of pace. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October
:beerSpartak Moscow v Chelsea A difficult trip for Chelsea, who travel to Russia without Alex, Lampard and most improtantly Drogba. We saw against Villa how much of a difference that can make, and they looked toothless up front. However, Chelsea are still extremely strong defensively. They've only conceded 2 goals in the league in 8 games, and with Essien and Mikel in front of an incredibly experienced back four, they are so difficult to break down. Moscow's home record may be a little worse than some would think. They have only won twice at home since millenium, and those were against poor teams. Kiev have already gone to Moscow and won 4-1. I think a combination of a solid defence, and Ancelotti's tactics will see Chelsea come away with a tight win. Chelsea to win with a clean sheet @ 5/2 - 3pts - StanJames -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October
:beerA little bit of info on the Arsenal game. Arsenal v Shakthar Arsenal welcome back Captain Cesc tonight, and although he may only start on the bench, it will be a massive boost to the whole team. The team came through a difficult game against Birmingham, and although tainted by a nasty Wilshire tackle late on, the performance was impressive, and much sharper than that of the last few previous weeks. Fabregas is joined back in the squad by Gibbs, Bendtner and Walcott, all who will be looking to get a bit of game time tonight, as Arsenal slowly begin to bring their massive injury list down. Arsenal have only ever lost once at the Emirates in Europe, and have won 6 of there last 7 (the other being a 2-2 draw against Barca). We have also beaten the -1 handicap in every one of those 6 games, and beaten the -2 handicap in 3 of those. With Shakthar likely to play without any restraint, this should be a cracking, fast paced game with plenty of goals. Chamakh is starting to find his touch and his Champions League record at Bordeaux was impressive. Fabianski is growing in confidence in goal with every game and that has reflected in some better defensive performances. I think there's definately value in Arsenal tonight, both the straight win, the handicap and on the overs. Arsenal @ 4/6 - 7.5pts - VCbet Arsenal -1 @ 9/5 - 2pts - StanJames Over 2.5 @ 4/5 - 5pts - Various Over 3.5 @ 2/1 - 2pts - BoyleSports Over 4.5 @ 9/2 - 1pt - StanJames -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October Cesc starts for Arsenal :dude
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October Spartak Moscow v Chelsea A difficult trip for Chelsea, who travel to Russia without Alex, Lampard and most improtantly Drogba. We saw against Villa how much of a difference that can make, and they looked toothless up front. However, Chelsea are still extremely strong defensively. They've only conceded 2 goals in the league in 8 games, and with Essien and Mikel in front of an incredibly experienced back four, they are so difficult to break down. Moscow's home record may be a little worse than some would think. They have only won twice at home since millenium, and those were against poor teams. Kiev have already gone to Moscow and won 4-1. I think a combination of a solid defence, and Ancelotti's tactics will see Chelsea come away with a tight win. Chelsea to win with a clean sheet @ 5/2 - 3pts - StanJames
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 19th October A little bit of info on the Arsenal game. Arsenal v Shakthar Arsenal welcome back Captain Cesc tonight, and although he may only start on the bench, it will be a massive boost to the whole team. The team came through a difficult game against Birmingham, and although tainted by a nasty Wilshire tackle late on, the performance was impressive, and much sharper than that of the last few previous weeks. Fabregas is joined back in the squad by Gibbs, Bendtner and Walcott, all who will be looking to get a bit of game time tonight, as Arsenal slowly begin to bring their massive injury list down. Arsenal have only ever lost once at the Emirates in Europe, and have won 6 of there last 7 (the other being a 2-2 draw against Barca). We have also beaten the -1 handicap in every one of those 6 games, and beaten the -2 handicap in 3 of those. With Shakthar likely to play without any restraint, this should be a cracking, fast paced game with plenty of goals. Chamakh is starting to find his touch and his Champions League record at Bordeaux was impressive. Fabianski is growing in confidence in goal with every game and that has reflected in some better defensive performances. I think there's definately value in Arsenal tonight, both the straight win, the handicap and on the overs. Arsenal @ 4/6 - 7.5pts - VCbet Arsenal -1 @ 9/5 - 2pts - StanJames Over 2.5 @ 4/5 - 5pts - Various Over 3.5 @ 2/1 - 2pts - BoyleSports Over 4.5 @ 9/2 - 1pt - StanJames
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Re: X-Factor One Direction will be massivly popular with the girls. However, I feel there are three reasons why they won't win; 1) Groups generally don't do well. We've already seen Simon lose two acts, and Belle Amie will soon be out the door (and into mine hopefully). 2) They're too young - I feel they have the 'cute' factor at the moment, but when it comes to the more serious end of the competition, I feel their age may be their downfall. 3) The 'personal' factor - Another reason groups don't do well is because people enjoy liking 'one' person, there's no individuality in One Direction. Leona Lewis, Joe Mcceldry, Alexander Burke etc. etc. they all had the 'personal' factor as I for some reason keep naming it. The only groups to have ever come close is G4 (during a wierd year) and JLS. Rebeccas advantage at the moment is she is yet to peak. She still has a long way to go in this competition to make it her 'story'. A bit like Alexandre Burke last year or whenever it was, she grew with confidence as the competition went on. She'll do well in all the theme's imo, and she has the Cheryl factor. Aiden is just wierd, if it was the 'Ian Curtis Factor' he may be in with a chance.
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Re: X-Factor Youtube videos are often a good way to see popularity. At the moment, from the latest weeks performances, the official Xfactor Youtube views are (rounded to the nearest thousand); Matt Cardle - 260k (11/4) Cher Lloyd - 226k (9/1) One Direction - 142k (7/2) Rebecca Ferguson - 88k (5/1) Mary Byrne - 84k (6/1) Katy Wassel - 63k (25/1) Treyc Cohen - 57k (11/1) John Adelele - 54k (40/1) Belle Amie - 53k (50/1) Aiden Grimshaw - 52k (8/1) Paije Richardson - 50k (40/1) Wagner - 33k (100/1) Diva Fever - 55k Storm Lee - 44k In the first week, Cher got nearly double anyone else with over a million views, compared to One Direction, Mary and Matt who just reached over 500k. I can't see One Direction winning it as groups always struggle, especially later on in the competition when it becomes a bit more 'personal'. I think their novelty factor will wear off. Cher looks value at 9/1 considering her Youtube popularity, but again, her novelty factor wear off, and will she be about to whack out that all important x-factor ballard? Having Cheryl on her side is a big bonus though. I think it's between Matt, Cher and Rebecca, with the value being in the last two.
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Re: £10 - £300 in 10 bets. Bah, should of had a pen but shocking performance from England. Back to the drawing board for this one.
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Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October
:eyesEngland v Montenegro This won't be an easy game by any means for England. Montenegro are a better side since their World Cup qualifying attempt despite losing a couple of key players. Krancjar has built a solid, well balanced team with some good techinical ability all around the pitch. They will line up something like: Bozovic Savic - Basa - Dzudovic - Jovanovic Vukcevic - Pekovic - Zverotic - Boskovic Vucinic Djalovic It's a good team, with a solid spine and the creativity of Vukcevic and Vucinic, mixed with the clinical style of Djalovic make them dangerous on the break. Where they may be suspectable however is down the wings, Savic, a 19 year old playing at Partizan Belgrade is making only his second international appearance, whilst Jovanovic was far from convincing against Switzerland, looking out of sorts at this level. England are with a few issues themselves. Injuries to Defoe, Bent, Walcott and Lennon mean that there is little pace in the team, whilst back problems for Terry mean that it will once again be a makeshift back four, with Rio coming in as captain, and surely not 100% game fit with so few starts. Where England do have an advantage however is down the wings, with Johnson starting on the right, and one of Cole, Downing and Young on the left. There's a lot of potential there and with the Montenegro full backs looking like the weak spot, it may be an area that England target, especially with the attacking nature of both Ashley Cole on the left and Johnson on the right. With Crouch starting up front, and Rooney off form, you would expect to see lots of balls into the box, and I wouldn't be suprised to see the lanky Crouch get onto one or two of those crosses, which is where my betting will look too. Crouch first scorer @ 9/2 - Various - 2.5pts Crouch to score anytime @ 11/8 - Boylesports - 5pts Crouch to score 2 or more @ 7/1 - BetFred - 1pt Johnson to score 2 or more @ 18/1 - Bet365 - 1pt Another interesting stat is regarding Englands goal record at home. England have gone over 2.5 in 18 of their last 19 games at Wembly! Quite remarkable when you think about it. So on a purely statistical basis, I'll be backing; Over 2.5 @ 8/11 - StanJames - 5pts Over 3.5 @ 2/1 - VCbet - 2.5pts -
Re: £10 - £300 in 10 bets. Bet 1 was a winner, I'm taking a bit of a detour from the originally intended route :lol Bet 2 England to win (75 mins gone 0-0) @ 2.42 £4.46 Single.
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Right going to have a bit of an all in hunt here. Starting with £10, I aim to win 10 bets in a row at odds of about 1.5, see how I get on. Bet 1 Latvia v Georgia - Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.19 Belarus v Albania - Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.23 £10 Double @ 1.47
UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December
Just so you know, I doubt Nasri will play more than about 65 minutes.