LEE-GRAYS

+£1.10
day 6
@Carole-dawney Newcastle 

+£1.10
day 6
@Carole-dawney Newcastle 

+£12 3places 1 nr

Interesting.
I also tend to put my bets on early but when they are drifters they usually do badly and vive versa with horses shortening. Today for example I backed Barrel Edge which won at 13/8 after being available at 4/1 last night.
However I haven't done a detailed analysis so I might be talking through my wallet.
I'm not sure why it could not be turned into a profitable system, wait until the off and back the horse that has drifted by x%.

Day 5 
-£10.90
 

minus 40.00
Ludlow 
12.25 - Hill Spirit 7/1
1.00 - Missed Tea 7/2
1.35 - Illucidate 9/2
2.10 - Hurricane Harvey 10/3
2.45 - Tide Times 3/1
prices skybet
10 x £2 doubles
 

Gone in early, maybe too early but had a small wager on Panda Boy 66/1
Just re watched the Irish National.
Had a chance 2 out but pecked a little bit on landing. Will turn 8 this year so should be a bit stronger.

AW selection
Newcastle  4.40
FIFTY SENT
After further analysis, I am limiting my selections to those with forecast odds in the range 7/2 to 6/2
For last year this would have resulted in 204 wins from 1,177 bets with a profit of 444 points
For those of you statistically inclined the p-value for this is 0.0002 which undicates that there is a 1 in 5,626 chance that this arose purely to luck. We shall see !
 

Day 4 
-£5.90

Turfway each ways,
1025 Cinderella Story 8/1.  1st.  👍
1125 High Fashion Kate 7/1.  Unp.
bet365.

Doing ok if last wins or placed 😂

Doing ok if last wins or placed 😂

Got lucky 31 on the lucky 15 thread 😂😂

I can't believe there is no racing this afternoon. With all the all weather meetings you would think the BHA would have the sense to make sure there was one each afternoon in winter.
I'll put up a selection from my all weather system. Last year this system made a profit of 823 points with 565 winners from 5,209 selections.
The criteria this year are :-
Draw > 4
Days since last run > 17
Career starts 2 - 21
Wins in last 10 runs < 3
Today's selection
Kempton 7.30
GOD OF THUNDER

Scalloway Bay                                                     3 25 New/                1/40th of a pt ew   16/1         - 3rd
Dibble Decker                                                    2 40 Win/                  1/40th of a pt ew   12/1         - Won
Croke Park                                                          2 00 Nas/                  1/40th of a pt ew   10/1      { sunday} 7th
 
 
P/L  + 173.80 pts

Wife's in tenerife 2 gg's tonight at kemp. tenerife sunshine and her name is sandy so sandy paradise. Got to be worth a shilling or two lee boy.

Winner 
+£90
+£50 jan
-£535 10/07/23

Kemp 455 King Of Speed 11/1
£10 ew bet365.

My fancy Ramses de Teille doesn't meet one of the trends "raced in the last 5 weeks" but goes well fresh.
 
Just 8 past runnings Trainers Anthony Honeyball, Venetia Williams, Evan Williams (2), Charlie Longsdon, David Pipe, Sandy Thomson and Mel Rowley are past winners 8/8 – Raced in last 5 weeks 7/8 – Unplaced in last race 6/8 – 4+ wins over fences 6/8 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight 5/8 – Winners aged 11 or 12 years-old 5/8 – Officially rated between 135-145 4/8 – Favourites unplaced 2/8 – Favourites (joint)

12.27 cagnes-sur-mer Ange pitou 15/2 £10 e/w bet365

Day 3 -£10.90

Day 3 -£10.90

Total Lockdown                                              8 30 Wolvs/                             1/40th of a pt ew         33/1