Sco
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Posts posted by Sco
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Again, only managed to get £10 out of that one, so lost again - the encouraging this is that I would have won all of these bets if I stuck to the first ten minutes only. My greediness is getting me nowhere! I am going to compile a spreadsheet over the next week or so, on how many goals go in the first ten minutes, and the % drop in price. The only thing is I'm not 100% sure what information I need to gather? Obviously there needs to be odds at ten minutes before KO, at KO and ten minutes in. Is there anything else people think would be useful to build in? Sco for the record going to place £20 on the QPR game tonight, and DEFINATELY going to get out at 10 minutes.
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Bet 3 Lazio V AC Milan £20 @ 1.81. I'll be looking to trade out £10 at between 10-20 minutes. If still 0-0 may try and wait to half time. Sco
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Ok, First game after commission gave me a £3.42 profit, where as the Liverpool game cost me £5.00 Going to keep it going - will be placing £20 on the Lazio V AC Milan game as I think that should be a close and tight game, Will see how the game goes, but will post up my intentions. Sco
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Managed to get some more money out, but ended up £5 down on that one - some very poorly timed goals from spurs! Anyway, will post up results and more selections soon. Sco
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes I traded £10 of the £20 by laying @ 1.9 after 10 minutes! I am holding onto the rest to see if it will stay at 1-0 until half time, and then see how the market goes.
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Layed out at 1.88 (stake £20) after 13 minutes so decided to go with a free bet on the unders which will give me £3.60 (exc. commission) if it stays under 3 goals. Next bet: Liverpool V Spurs I fancy this one to be tight early on as both teams have a bit to prove after thier last couple of performances. Again I will probably get out of this one around the ten minute mark hopefully. £20 staked on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08
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Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Datapunter, Thanks. Yes I will post all the markets prior to the games and state the odds & time that I make the trade. Should I make it a 'real life' system, then I will send screen shots or whatever you need. I am putting money on this, but only small stakes! Andy
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All, I am going to start doing some very small stakes trading in the over / unders market (2.5 goals). I'm at the same time as this doing some statistics on these games and am trying to develop a statistical method of choosing which games to pick. For now though, most of the picks will be dependant on form and goals scored in the previous few games. All picks are going to be done on Betfair, so lets see how it goes.... Pick 1 Reading V Derby There could well be a few goals in this as both defences are not great. However I'll be looking to trade out after around 10 minutes / 15 minutes. Dependant on how the game goes I may take £10 out after ten minutes & keep £10 in until the 20 minute mark, but I will see how the match pans out first. £20 staked on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 As said before this is a TEST so I wouldn't put any money on this until it's proven! Sco
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Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) I'm tending to sway towards Murray here. If the odds were around evens for each then maybe Djokovic but at this price it must be taken. Murray has a point to prove as he doesn't like being written off. He has the game to win for sure. Personnally a BIG bet for me is laying the 2-0 Djokovic. I really think Murray will win in 2, but a bit of insurance never hurt anyone! Maybe my judgement is slightly clouded by the fact I think Murray is awsome! Go on Murray lad :notworthy Sco
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Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) I was at work but looked like an exciting game for Andy Murray. by all accounts sounds like he was pretty useless for the most of it but strong when he needed to be. Well I have to say that Canas to beat Federer is a huge bet. Canas last week didn't just beat Fed, he absolutely pummled him. He has been in great form for the best part of a month and he will be confident that he can win. Federer was far from convincing in his last match. Sure Federer is still the favourite but at such small odds I've stuck a tenner on it - will pay nicely if it comes through. Nadal IMO has a much better chance of beating Del Podro than Federer does of Canas but the odds dont suggest that. I think Djokovic @ 1.2 is decent too - I really am not a fan of Lopez at all. Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Yep I actually want to kill mr Moya! I didn't have time to post up but sweating a fair amount on Mathieu here - Seriously could do with a win here... although not included in this thread! Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... The curse of Marat Safin strikes again:spank A few bets today. Djokovic @ 1.15 to beat Llodra - 20 points staked I know small stakes but I class the above as a banker! Djokoviv has been in great form - I expect him to challenge for the title here, so Llodra should be no match. Moya @ 1.56 on Betfair to beat Santoro - 40 points staked. Moya has been on great form this season. Beat Canas & Stephanek in Indian Wells, and took Ferrer to 3 sets who has also been playing good tennis. Very confident of this one - let's just hope he plays as well as he should! 60 points staked in all and expect that all to come back with intrest!! Sco:hope
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Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) I totally agree with you on the Serra & Moya picks. Lopez was a bit fortunate to beat Safin IMO. Safin just choked at important times and didn't serve that well. Moya has been playing good tennis recently and I see no reason for this to stop. Some lower odd picks would have to be Hingis & Djokovic at around 1.15 on betfair. Murray again I would stay well away from @ 1.08. He said himself he felt tired in his last match and made hard work of it. Still should win, and bet he is relieved that Hewitt withdrew! Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks...
From the Tennis forum - 20 points staked here 1.62 Sco:hopeSafin to beat Lopez Lopez although having a 3-1 record over Lopez is by far the weaker play here IMO. Lopez's last victory was at Wimbledon (I was in the stands) and in fairness he played amazing that whole week. Safin can be tempramental but is a class above Lopez. Neither player setting the world alight this season, but I reckon that 1.62 available on Betfair is a decent enough bet. Sco -
Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) Safin to beat Lopez Lopez although having a 3-1 record over Lopez is by far the weaker play here IMO. Lopez's last victory was at Wimbledon (I was in the stands) and in fairness he played amazing that whole week. Safin can be tempramental but is a class above Lopez. Neither player setting the world alight this season, but I reckon that 1.62 available on Betfair is a decent enough bet. Sco
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Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) A word of warning for tonight - whilst I wouldn't bet against Murray in his match I wouldn't back him at such low odds tonight. He did a lot of talking about how he should have pulled out of the last tournament so I reckon if he felt his injury coming back he may pull out. Just my 2 cents for this one... Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks...
Nicely done Tim, but for the purpose of this thread you lost me money! :wall As it was Betfair, the Volandri bet came through nicely... Updated Bank No. of Bets: 11 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £168.08 Profit: £68.08 Current exposure: 0 A word of warning for tonight - whilst I wouldn't bet against Murray in his match I wouldn't back him at such low odds tonight. He did a lot of talking about how he should have pulled out of the last tournament so I reckon if he felt his injury coming back he may pull out. Just a word of warning. ScoOn a personal note I may trade in this game, starting on Henman and hope he takes the first set, however for the purpose of this thread I will back him. -
Re: Home Cooking System Sorry Barhead, I cant quite figure out how you've chsen your stake... could you explain it again? Seem like some good results - I'll keep a watchfull eye on them :tongue2 Sco
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Re: Tennis, Sony Ericsson Open (ATP/WTA) http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44245&page=2 2 picks here, cant be bothered to re write them. To sum up Henman to beat Canas, and Volandri to beat Mahut. Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 10 Miami Open Canas V Henman 3.30 betfair I think a lot has been made of Canas form here. He played well in winning the tournament last month, and yes he beat Federer, but lets not forget that he lost the game after Federer fairly easily. Henman has had a lot of time off, and needs to serve well, but I reckon Henman will be up for this. On a personal note I may trade in this game, starting on Henman and hope he takes the first set, however for the purpose of this thread I will back him. 4 points staked at 3.3. Bet 11 Miami Open Mahut V Volandri 3.20 betfair Mahut to be is a nothing player. I mean just look at the way Henman ripped him apart last month. That said Volandri has had a very poor start to the season, winning a huge 0 games!!! Still, just cant force myself to back Mahut. 2 points staked at 3.2.
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Good end to the week with Nadal showing his true class against Djokovic.:nana Will be quiet here until the next tournament in Miami - hope people made some profit off this one. Updated Bank No. of Bets: 9 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £168.68 Profit: £68.68 Current exposure: 0 Good luck all! Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... No in this thread is fine! Re: Prize money - I really dont see this as an issue at all. All players should be motivated to win for points and ranking points. The only exception could be lower ranked players, but I would discount that personally... dont want to overcomplicate. The best tennis website by far is www.atptennis.com - it's a great resource and has a load of stats on there. http://www.andymurraynews.com/2007/02/andy-murray-atp-world-ranking.html The above link seems to kind of sum up how it works. So Murray is kind of playing with no pressure at the moment as he has very few points to defend now until Queens club & Wimbledon. Just wondered if your model was up and running like the football one, but no worries if it's not ready! lol. I'd be interesting to see if it consistantly makes a profit. Nice one Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks...
Well I think you need to use a mixture of the three that you have said above. Use the Nadal v Roddick match yesterday as an example: 1) Backing the player with the best chance of winning that would be close - Roddick had lower odds but I think Nadal had the best chance... it would depend on what your model churned out but it's going to be a close call - probably no bet. 2) Neither player had a 70% chance of winning so again no bet. 3) Here is what I played with Nadal. I thought Nadal should have been around 1.75 odds and he was 2.04. To me there was a lot of value there, so went in with high stakes. If you used selections 1+2 by themselves you will probably never get value. And I guess the whole point in your system is to identify the games you shouldn't be betting on (ie maybe Federer V Canas this week) Hopefully your system would flag up that Canas came in on good form, winning his previous event, and even though Federer was still overwhelming favourite hopefully it would flag up a 'no bet' or a lay bet on federer. So out of interest, what would your model spit out for the Nadal final? Interesting stuff - and your EPL thread seems to be going well too! ScoThen I'll look into whether I just back the player with the best chance of winning the game. Or Backing the player with a greater than 70% chance of winning the match Or Backing the player I think has a x% better chance of winning the game than the bookies think. i.e chasing value. Any thoughts? -
Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 9 Nadal Champion @ 1.43 (betfair) He has been very solid all week, and for pretty much the same reasons as against Roddick believe he will win. Djokovic is a good player and also playing well, so just 10 points staked. 20 points staked on Nadal @ 1.43
Tennis: ATP Madrid (hard)
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Re: Tennis: ATP Madrid (hard) Ouch - Donald. A bad first day for you! Sco