Sco
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Posts posted by Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks...
Hey, Wow - you've been busy! lol. I definately reckon you've got the majority of factors in there, to be honest perhaps you have too many? Some of the things you use to calculate are probably only useful when calculating odds 'in-play' perhaps such as tie break statistics? I guess unless of course they are playing someone like Karlovic or Roddick where it might be very important. I think what I am trying to say is that it really depends on each match which factors are important. One that I have used before is to look at how players play against left handed players, particularly on grass as a good lefty can be very effective if they can use a good slice serve. One that is difficult to put into a system but it is players confidence and thier self belief - something I really noticed change in Nadal this week, but, not sure how you could put that into your system? I'm interested in what output this calculation gives to help you make a decision - I assume it is a numerical value? or a %? Cheers ScoGreat stuff so far Sco. I'm working on a tennis model and would be interested in your thoughts of what factors are the greatest differentiators between who wins and who losses. I've made a list of what I am going to calculate for my system, anything you think i have missed? (Bold, Italics - I have already done) Current stats Current world rank Centrebet Odds Change in rank (from one month ago to now) Change in rank (from two months ago to now) Change in rank (from six months ago to now) Change in rank (from one year ago to now) Playing in country of birth (Yes or No) Age on match day (in days) H2H stats - all time Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches - on surface of upcoming match Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches PERFORMANCE STATS - in this tournament (lifetime) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won RR losses - count R128 losses - count R64 losses - count R32 losses - count R16 losses - count Quarter Finalist - count Semi Finalist - count Finalist - count Winner - count Avg rank of oppo - in this tournament last time here W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won Performance last time in tournament (1st, 2nd, 1/4s etc) Avg rank of oppo - tournament to date (only useful in later rounds of the current tournament) avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date on this surface (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo Possible enhancements: - Performance against certain handed players if poss. - Avg rank off oppo split out into those defeated and those lost to. -
Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 8 Nadal to beat Roddick @ 2.04 (betfair) 20 points staked. My reasoning for this one is Nadals increase in confidence and form. He finally seems to have that self belief that made him such a force last year, that I believe he didn't have at the start of the season. He knows he has a great opportunity to win a tournament without federer here so I would be suprised if he doesn't take this. A lot is been made of Roddicks serve at the moment - don't forget Nadal is an excellent returner of serve and a great defensive player. I see Roddick trying to rush the net, something he simply shouldn't do. Good luck Sco:hope
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Re: Tennis, Pacific Life Open Masters, Indian Wells (ATP/WTA)
Oops! Murray is twice the player Haas is - in fact I am seriously suprised Haas is playing so well. Fancy Nadal to be honest. He's looked really solid all week and seems to have the confidence back. Roddick has been serving well, but don't forget Nadal is one of the best returners in the world, and a fantastic defensive player. Roddick won't like the fact that the ball keeps coming back. Nadal to win here at good value. ScoHaas - Murray 1.694 Pinnacle For me this price is set right and this is not 50/50 match for sure in my eyes.When I'm reading that Murray is class above Haas it makes me laugh :D 2:0 very possible.I'm all the way on Haas. -
Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well done Mr Murray!:nana Really great match, and got to the stage where I thought he was going to lose due to injury but a superb performance. Bit of a kamikazee bet that one but I really was sure on it. Anyways, all good. Djokovic looked really strong against Ferrer, or to be more exact, Ferrer unforced errored his way to defeat... he was gash. So new bank: Balance: 132.8 Profit: 32.8 Bet 7 Indian Wells Open Murray V Djokovic 1.81 betfair Simply put Murray looked in quite a bad state after the match. He was obviously in pain with his ankle, and had treatment on his foot earlier in the match. Djokovic on the other hand looked very comfortable and should be relatively fresh. I'm pretty sure the injury won't force him to not play, but its one of those that may crop up in a tough three setter. Plus Murray has not a great record V young players, such as Gasquet, Djokovic and Nadal. 8 pts staked - I also think the odds may drift in Djokovic's favour so get on early! Good luck. Sco:hope
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Re: Patience is a virtue Hey man, Seem to have had a pretty decent start here... so, can you explain what you are doing with the three banks? Your making 3 bets, each with the stake and profits going to a seperate bank? Sorry, just a little confused. I couldn't believe Bradford City won either the other day... they are sh1te. I have small stakes on Northampton to do them over today actually... sure they wont go on a 'run'. Good luck. Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 5 Indian Wells Open Murray 2.42 V Haas I am so certain of this one. I know a lot of people are going with Tommy here, but I REALLY think he will win this. 40 points - opportunities like this will not come around very often for Murray soon. See my write up in the tennis forums. Bet 6 Indian Wells Open Djokovic V Ferrer Lay Djokovic 2-0. @ 2.4 See write up in the tennis picks forums. To put a long story short, think Djokovic might slip up in one set but will still win. 5.6 pts for a winning of 9pts... Cheers Sco
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Re: Tennis, Pacific Life Open Masters, Indian Wells (ATP/WTA) I'm on full stakes here on Murray - I think it is a great price. Below is my reasoning: Murray is clearly one of the most talented players on the tour at the moment and has beaten the vast majority of top players. He is playing well at the moment, and most of all, I believe he has the belief and 'want to win more'. This may sound silly but I feel Murray in games where he has a scalp to take he often produces - examples, Federer, Davydenko, Roddick. Yes, he lost to Roddick recently, and I think this was because he almost believed that Roddick was going to come out and beat him because of earlier (often embarrasing) defeats. Haas is playing well, but I reckon this game is a 50/50 so the odds with Murray are Huge IMO. I've watched this lad a lot and he is really good. Djokovic V Ferrer - I've layed 2-0 to Djokovic as I reckon Ferrer might take the first set. If he does I'll be jumping on the Serb with largest stakes. Good luck all, Sco
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Re: UEFA Cup matches 8/3 A purely observation post, but Betfair is offering 3.3 on Maccabi Haifa which is quite an increase on the odds above. Not sure whether any team news has come out to suggest such a rise in price? Might be worth a stab otherwise with small stakes? Sco
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Re: CL matches - return leg - 6-7/3
I'm not going to say 'I told you so' or anything like that - in fact far from it. How Liverpool didn't win that game I will never know. Barca only turned up for around 15 minutes. On tomorrow's games I am a little worried about the 2 English teams. Arsenal have a habit of conceeding at the Emirates, usually first, making it an uphill battle. Man Utd are according the the bbc website going to play some of the squad players to keep the morale high - worth a look to see what the team sheet is. Man Utd also have scraped through thier last 2 games with last minute winners - not exactly the best performances at all. Milan on the other hand I really can't see winning here - Celtic just are too weak in comparison in my opinion. Just my thoughts...A friend advice: don't go full bank for anything. There are no certain results. Talking of a certain result on a CL finals game is childish. Your pick can come true as certain as any other pick. The value is very low and even if you win your winning will not cover the next certain bet that you are going to loose. Just trying to give some common sense .. but after all it is your money :lol:lol:lol Liverpool will play defensively at Anfield. That's a good one ... :lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol :dude -
Re: CL matches - return leg - 6-7/3 Guys, Large bet for me tonight. I am damn near certain that Liverpool are not going to win. Barcelona are going to come at Liverpool, but I am pretty confident that Benitez will be holding out for a draw here and maybe to hit Barca on the break. My two bets are: 1pt Bellemay to score first goal (if he is starting?) full bank Lay liverpool. If Liverpool score it changes nothing for Barcelona and they will keep piling forward. Even if Liverpool took the lead, I think Barca will equalise, but maybe not win the game, thus the lay. Andy
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Yep - Becker just didn't turn up. Will just have to wait until Indian Wells starts now... don't really bet on womens tennis. Sco
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Re: Tennis, Week 9 I tell you what, Henman didn't half hammer Marhut! I thought he would be really rusty.. oh well. Agree with the Becker call, gones full stakes with him. Sco
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Ok guys, one more for the night. Bet 4 Tennis Channel Open Becker 1.52 V Hernych Becker is a class act and playing well as of late. His record this season has been good. Hernych on the other hand has been playing poorly with a record of won 1 lost 6. I expect a fairly easy game here for Becker - full stakes. Becker to win @ 1.52 - 20 points staked :hope :hope :hope
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well... Henman looks pretty good at the moment. Marhut is playing pants:wall Will see how it goes...
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 3 Tennis Channel Open Koubek 3.35 V Safin I think the odds on Safin (at around 1.4) are far too low here. He still hasn't quite regained that class that won him the Australian Open, and Koubek is no mug. Could see him getting frustrated here. Mahut to win @ 3.35 - 2 points staked
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well - he made me work for it, but he came through in the end. Good start :) New updated bank: 109.6 Bet 2 Tennis Channel Open Marhut 2.12 V Henman To repeat my above post I think the odds aren't too bad. They could be better, but I really think Henman will struggle. The last couple of times he has 'made a come back' he has done poorly - usually ending up saying something on the lines of, "I was dissapointed with the result but thought I was hitting the ball well" I'm hoping for the same tonight:hope Mahut to win @ 2.12 - 6 points staked
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Re: Tennis, Week 9 Agree with the experts call on Kolscheiber think he will win this one. I've made a selection for Nadal too - when odds come out for Henman as going to be backing Mahut quite heavily but no odds as of yet. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=730752#post730752 Sco
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Right. It's been a while since I was on this forum, but after a stint of world travel I feel I have come back a more educated man. ;) I've been following tennis for years now and it is by far my most sucessful (usually) so I'm going to see how it goes. I do a lot of my betting in play on Betfair, which obviously I can't post up, so I will try and put extra thought into the picks! Starting Bank 100 Max Bet: 20 Bet 1 Dubai Open Nadal 1.48 V Bagdahtis The odds on Nadal here I feel are really good. Nadal has a 100% sets record against Marcos, winning both matches fairly convincingly. He is the defending champion here - a little extra motivation not to get knocked out as he has points to defend. Stats aside, Nadal despite his match practice should be up for this, and I would price the game at more like 1.3. Going to start off with a max bet here... odds are drifting so get on quick. Nadal to win @ 1.48 - 20 points staked. I can't seem to find any odds on Henman V Mahut yet - but I'll be putting a few points on Marhut I think over in Las Vegas - Henman seriously out of practice, and just coming back from the flu, apparently spending 24 hours in bed yesterday! Although he won the previous encounter it was on grass at Queens - Henman usually plays well there. Will be posting back up with a selection for this if the odds are half decent. Sco :hope
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Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Yep they definately were there. The really good thing about these tournaments is that there honestly hasn't been a game (including Monfils match) that I havent been 'all green' in on Betfair. The market changes so dramitically - a break for an underdog in the first game and the market swings...take coria game - I got coria at 1.94...ridiculous, even if he did miss the first set. All my hopes go to the ONLY englishmen left. Sco
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Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Ok 2 bets for me at the 4 start. first one is to Lay Henman - he (if fully fit) should easily have the beatings of Verdasco, but he has been playing really badly of late, and will have the added pressure of having points to defend (after a good run last year). I would also suggest betfair as if Henman retires after the first set has finished it counts as a bet. Second one is Monfils. If he doesn't win this match il buy everyone here a pint! )Well maybe not but still...) 1.67 I feel is MASSIVE! Other games I'm interested in - Murrays, I am going to lay the Pavel 3-0 as I just cannot see Murray not getting a set, although in the In play market I am going to Lay Murray if he goes 2-0 up due to possibkle lack of fitness and a bad shoulder. Blake V Rysedski... What a match that should be. I'm leaving it alone but both will be REALLY pumped up for it. I coul;d see Blake just edging it though unless Rusedski can continue producing theform he has showed. For accas: Ancic and over 1.2 tb Lee is OK, and I think Kiefer at 1.1 also. Obviously there is feder, Roddick and agassi who will not lose bar an injury. Good luck and lets hope Murray can go all the way...who is federer???:rollin Sco
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Re: Sports Personality of the year I have to say, after his performance today - that puts him easily englands best performer over the ashes. Particularly considering he is yet to bowl and should take a few wickets if england do win the ashes, he will be hailed as the hero. Pieterson also has a chace, as he is one of those players that has kind of a histeria around him like beckham - so if he could score 150 in the last test match that could be enough for him. If england dont win the ashes then its game on I suppose. Sco
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Re: New Haven tennis this week Sorry not ben around for this tourny, I dont generally bet, as I find players in tournys just before big uns often pull out, fold etc - similar to Haas did yesterday. Looking at the line ups, I fancy Chela to beat Blake. blake was completely outplayed by haas in the first set, and only got back into the game due to Hass ability (as usual) to crumble under the pressure. Chela has been playing well, winning quite a few games against the odds, and I think he has a chance. However this one is only really small stakes - I'm waiting for the big un. I think i may bet on murray to win his final qual match though, dont see him losing so close to the start line... Sco
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Re: Tennis starting 15th August... I actually think that Hewitt is good value to beat Roddick here; sure the crowd will be with roddick, but he has struggled all week, and dropped a few sets. Hewitt is a steely player, so a less than par oddick will lose this. Sco
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Re: Tennis starting 15th August... Good ol' Ginepri. Decided to take a bit of Hewitt as well, Ed your thoughts just swayed me! Sco
Sco's Tennis picks...
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Right, 2 more winners :nana Nadal played perfectly against Roddick - played some great short balls inviting Roddick in and passed him easily. Very solid, particularly with his serving which was a pleasant suprise! Updated Bank No. of Bets: 8 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £160.08 Profit: £60.08 Current exposure: 0 Good luck all:hope Sco