Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

diamond1924

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,193

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by diamond1924

    The start of the Flat

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The start of the Flat I picked up on your threads about front runners at Windsor Bowles10 and was starting to click last year. Loved Monday nights. My hope and worry revolves around the Michael Jarvis to Roger Varian switch. My fav jockey is obviously Neil Callan, who takes over as stable jockey, the concern is that it works out well, I did quite well last year, NC had a strike rate well over 30% last year for MJ. Roger was the trainer in all but name, so hopefully all goes well there. The gap at Kevin Ryan's stable is filled by Phillip Makin, so not really losing much there, so these will be the main stables I'll follow again. I also had a rare old time following David Marnane's stable in Ireland, he flew under the radar with all the high profile names. It was good to see Keith Dalgleish get his first winner this weekend too. He takes over Ian Semple's old job at Belstane. I usually follow Jim Goldie, especially when he ventures south. The other one I had a lot of luck with was John Gosden. He's got a touch of the Gullivers too. When he sends a runner outwith the south east, it usually pays to follow him. If he sends a runner to the midlands, Yorkshire, North West, etc., or abroad, follow it. I get the feeling he doesn't like wasting money on unnecessary travelling expenses. A stable I grew to like was Malcolm Saunders, his runners at Bath usually went well. I slightly prefer the jumps, but it'll be good to get back to the flat.

    Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Denman and Kauto, technically, did get beaten by age, they've both regressed a bit from their peak. 6&7 year old Denman and Kauto would do more than finish 8&12 lengths behind 6&7 year old Long Run. But that's irrelevant, this is 2011, next March is 2002 when Long Run will be 7, and Denman and Kauto will be 12. By this time next year, barring illness or injury, Long Run will be rated around 190, Denman and Kauto will be running to 165-170 level. What a Friend will be low 170s, Midnight Chase will be around similar. One can only hope that Weapons Amnesty can return as good as he was, hopefully Diamond Harry, Time for Rupert, Boston's Angel, Jessie's Dream and Grand Crus, can step into the division and bridge the gap to Long Run. And of course, hope that trainers will run and campaign their horses a bit more sensibly that they can reach next March in good condition.

    Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4)

    Been a good week so far, whatever happens today, the week has been profitable, not so much profit yesterday and I kind of lucked out with my accident bet, but on the other, my mobile couldn't get a signal to get a bet on Buena Vista in time which would have made it a cracking day. Won't be making those mistakes today, bets are on, going out with the lads, got a float for some casual punts too. Hoping to finish the week off in a bit of style as it won't be long till the daily slog again on Monday. TRIUMPH It usually takes a horse with a bit of quality to win this one, usually backed up by a flat rating in excess of 80 (Carlito Brigante was my pick last year despite not being and 80 horse on the flat and look what happened). The French imports blur that a bit, but if you look at the last 5 years, all the winners come from the market leaders. This year we're looking at one from Unaccompanied, Grandouet, Sam Winner, Zarkander. I've put my money on the 2 Nicholls horses. COUNTY HURDLE Ferdy Murphy and Jonjo are the kings of getting one to peak for the spring. I've done my dough a few times on GET ME OUT OF HERE and he's been a disappointment to say the least. I got on at 14s last night, there's been some money today, and we've not seen a plunge by JP yet. Jonjo proved yesterday that he still has it by getting Alberta's Run to score, I'm hopeful. Salden Licht has top weight (usually a jinx in this race) but I've backed this one in every race for the past few years, and I'm not taking the risk of missing out just in case, so a very small e/w for me. He deserves his handicap mark and I'd be gutted if he doesn't make the frame. Gordon Elliot's DIRAR was my antepost bet, he's on a great mark and had a race on the flat to blow the cobwebs away. Alaivan and Alarazi won't be without a chance of making the frame either. This is a fascinating race for me, and plenty of e/w scope with 5 places with most firms. ALBERT BARTLETT I've been trying to keep my fingers crossed for Court in Motion for some time. That last defeat at Haydock could be forgiven considering a few factors. That was CIM's first try at 3m, the ground was desperate, and Howard Johnston's horse was not too shabby at all, and had experience over those distances. Aiden Coleman described CIM as "an aeroplane" after riding it to victory when Jack Doyle was out and had raved about it. CIM is a half brother to Alan King's Tuesday winner Bensalem and Emma Lavelle has raved about this one all year. Bob's Worth is a short favourite for Nicky Henderson, but we know the record of those this week, the past 3 winners were 8/1, 9/1 and 33/1. Martin Keighley's CHAMPION COURT is a really nice looking horse who could go well too. GOLD CUP The challenge of the generations really. Are the oldies up against it? Denman is still a reliable old sort but he's had heart problems, breathing problems, he's 11. Surely he should be out of it? Well, not really, he's lightly raced, and he's still a bit of a beast. Kauto? He's 11, had a bad fall last year, he got turned over at his track "Kempton" by Long Run. But I didn't think he benefited from having McCoy on him at Kempton and it was reported he bled during that race. If he's 100% right, he might not be totally out of it. The Commander is 10 now, only had 1 run this year, toiled a bit, got an injury, missed the King George. We have to take him purely on good faith. I'd be loath to back one of the oldies at short prices. I'm going to side with the new generation. KEMPES won well last time after his unlucky fall during the winter. This one was good on the flat, travels well, and looks like he has improvement in him. I've backed at 11s last night. PANDORAMA reportedly needs softer ground and may be inconvenienced otherwise I'd have a bigger bet at current odds (14s). MIDNIGHT CHASE was my small antepost, I think he may have been off for too long but he has to really step up a level here though. That said, he dished out a good old smack down to yesterday's winner Junior earlier in the season. Lastly, the unknown quantity and the trend horse is WHAT A FRIEND. Normally I wouldn't touch this one with a bargepole, he's an awful mover, head snatches all over the place, but they have blinkers on it today. At 33s he's probably worth a tenner e/w just in case. FOXHUNTERS I backed Dante's Storm last night on Milen's advice, Baby Run is sure to go well for the Twisters and is widely touted, but I heard a whisper for Just Amazing Martin Pipe Conditionals Pipe Junior fancies Shoegazer, he's saved it for this race and he's desperate to win this for obvious reasons. I can't quite believe Palomar is 28/1, this would be my idea of a small e/w bet, Brian Ellison is one of the best trainers around. There are 5 places available, I think Monetary Fund is another who could go well at a price (25/1) for Nicky Henderson, Jeremiah McGrath can take another 8lbs off with his claim. GRAND ANNUAL We're getting 5 places, so three darts for me would be DE BOITRON, OH CRICK and IMSINGINGTHEBLUES. Got to get a winner from those three, and hopefully e/w blanket on the others.
    I know it's a bit late, but I can't believe I never mentioned Long Run.... trying to rush this one out and onto my football site :$ Should have said it was main bet and most likely winner... Red neck for me :)

    Gold Cup

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Gold Cup Obviously I'm not an official handicapper but quickly reviewing that race, if we use the fourth and fifth Midnight Chase (163) and and What a Friend (159) as a yardstick, I'd reckon that we're looking at somewhere a revised mark of around... What a Friend 170 Kauto 171 Denman 175 Long Run 183 That would leave Kauto around 20lbs less than he started the year, Denman about 7lbs less. I don't know the exact science behind the handicapping, but don't think my marks will be that far off, I'd guess that using Midnight chase and What a Friend as the yardsticks, I'll not be far off. IMO, and borne out by this season's results, Kauto is regressing faster than Denman, but as it stands, both old warriors are still highly capable performers. I can't see connections of either (let's be honest, they're greedy as the next man), retiring these superstars yet, they'll mop up some more prize money for as long as they can. There's always be a Hennessy, and Betfair chase, JM Wines, King George, and 2012 Gold Cup place money to scoop up again next year on this evidence. If my revised h'cap marks are near accurate, they're still amongst the very best around.

    Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4) Been a good week so far, whatever happens today, the week has been profitable, not so much profit yesterday and I kind of lucked out with my accident bet, but on the other, my mobile couldn't get a signal to get a bet on Buena Vista in time which would have made it a cracking day. Won't be making those mistakes today, bets are on, going out with the lads, got a float for some casual punts too. Hoping to finish the week off in a bit of style as it won't be long till the daily slog again on Monday. TRIUMPH It usually takes a horse with a bit of quality to win this one, usually backed up by a flat rating in excess of 80 (Carlito Brigante was my pick last year despite not being and 80 horse on the flat and look what happened). The French imports blur that a bit, but if you look at the last 5 years, all the winners come from the market leaders. This year we're looking at one from Unaccompanied, Grandouet, Sam Winner, Zarkander. I've put my money on the 2 Nicholls horses. COUNTY HURDLE Ferdy Murphy and Jonjo are the kings of getting one to peak for the spring. I've done my dough a few times on GET ME OUT OF HERE and he's been a disappointment to say the least. I got on at 14s last night, there's been some money today, and we've not seen a plunge by JP yet. Jonjo proved yesterday that he still has it by getting Alberta's Run to score, I'm hopeful. Salden Licht has top weight (usually a jinx in this race) but I've backed this one in every race for the past few years, and I'm not taking the risk of missing out just in case, so a very small e/w for me. He deserves his handicap mark and I'd be gutted if he doesn't make the frame. Gordon Elliot's DIRAR was my antepost bet, he's on a great mark and had a race on the flat to blow the cobwebs away. Alaivan and Alarazi won't be without a chance of making the frame either. This is a fascinating race for me, and plenty of e/w scope with 5 places with most firms. ALBERT BARTLETT I've been trying to keep my fingers crossed for Court in Motion for some time. That last defeat at Haydock could be forgiven considering a few factors. That was CIM's first try at 3m, the ground was desperate, and Howard Johnston's horse was not too shabby at all, and had experience over those distances. Aiden Coleman described CIM as "an aeroplane" after riding it to victory when Jack Doyle was out and had raved about it. CIM is a half brother to Alan King's Tuesday winner Bensalem and Emma Lavelle has raved about this one all year. Bob's Worth is a short favourite for Nicky Henderson, but we know the record of those this week, the past 3 winners were 8/1, 9/1 and 33/1. Martin Keighley's CHAMPION COURT is a really nice looking horse who could go well too. GOLD CUP The challenge of the generations really. Are the oldies up against it? Denman is still a reliable old sort but he's had heart problems, breathing problems, he's 11. Surely he should be out of it? Well, not really, he's lightly raced, and he's still a bit of a beast. Kauto? He's 11, had a bad fall last year, he got turned over at his track "Kempton" by Long Run. But I didn't think he benefited from having McCoy on him at Kempton and it was reported he bled during that race. If he's 100% right, he might not be totally out of it. The Commander is 10 now, only had 1 run this year, toiled a bit, got an injury, missed the King George. We have to take him purely on good faith. I'd be loath to back one of the oldies at short prices. I'm going to side with the new generation. KEMPES won well last time after his unlucky fall during the winter. This one was good on the flat, travels well, and looks like he has improvement in him. I've backed at 11s last night. PANDORAMA reportedly needs softer ground and may be inconvenienced otherwise I'd have a bigger bet at current odds (14s). MIDNIGHT CHASE was my small antepost, I think he may have been off for too long but he has to really step up a level here though. That said, he dished out a good old smack down to yesterday's winner Junior earlier in the season. Lastly, the unknown quantity and the trend horse is WHAT A FRIEND. Normally I wouldn't touch this one with a bargepole, he's an awful mover, head snatches all over the place, but they have blinkers on it today. At 33s he's probably worth a tenner e/w just in case. FOXHUNTERS I backed Dante's Storm last night on Milen's advice, Baby Run is sure to go well for the Twisters and is widely touted, but I heard a whisper for Just Amazing Martin Pipe Conditionals Pipe Junior fancies Shoegazer, he's saved it for this race and he's desperate to win this for obvious reasons. I can't quite believe Palomar is 28/1, this would be my idea of a small e/w bet, Brian Ellison is one of the best trainers around. There are 5 places available, I think Monetary Fund is another who could go well at a price (25/1) for Nicky Henderson, Jeremiah McGrath can take another 8lbs off with his claim. GRAND ANNUAL We're getting 5 places, so three darts for me would be DE BOITRON, OH CRICK and IMSINGINGTHEBLUES. Got to get a winner from those three, and hopefully e/w blanket on the others.

    Jump Racing ( includes Cheltenham Day 3)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump Racing ( includes Cheltenham Day 3) I'm in a bit of a quandry today, I though yesterday would prove difficult and I had a good day, today looks equally difficult, but I'm determined to not give back too much of my winnings from yesterday. I have some favourites of mines running - Kalahari King and Galant Nuit, so concentrating on them plus some e/w fishing again. Jewson: I had a small e/w bet last night on Loosen my load at 7s, Wishful Thinking and Robinson Collonges will be all the rage and probably rightfully so. Noble Prince looks the most likely winner to me, but I have my AP phobia to overcome, so I have included that one in my placepots only. Noble Prince is the best jumper, but might idle off the bridle, I see a conflict with the horses habits and AP's promptings. Pertemps I've had an AntePost wager on Chartreux whom I still fancy but wont be going in again. If I have a small e/w on this race it would probably be Gigginstown's RIVAGE D'OR. Interesting that they persist with Brian J Cooper who's handled the horse well lately rather than the vastly experienced retained jockey, Sir Davy Russell. Despite top weight, I'd be disappointed if Knockara Beau didn't make the frame too. KB has course form, has come back to form lately over hurdles and has scope to improve. Ryanair I was on Kalahari King at 20s, now trading at 4/1 which would be far too short to go in again. There are questions over Kalahari, but I've noted the counter arguments on the Cheltenham forum. Of course, I'll be roaring that one home, but I've accidentally had my biggest bet of the week on RUBI LIGHT. After discussions with Milen and RB, I backed this one e/w but added and extra zero that I didn't really want to stake. Nervous? You bet. I've never been such a fan of Poquelin and you can never write out Alberta's Run who will probably win as I've not backed it. World Hurdle Not a betting race for me, I've had a small bet on Ashkazaar e/w (14s) in the without fav market but just for interest. Byrne Group 3 from stables I follow for me here, Hollo Ladies for Graham Lee/Ferdy, I can't let it go unbacked, but not overly confident. I've had a bet on Gordon Elliot's BEAUTIFUL SOUND at 7s last night, and lasty Niall Mulholland's I'm a legend whom I've followed all year, might just sneak a place at 28s. Kim Muir I'd be astounded if GALANT NUIT & JUNIOR don't at least make the frame. I've been on Galant Nuit for a while, 3rd last year after a woeful Nina ride, she can make amends today. Galant Nuit loves the course, stays easily, nearly won last year off a similar break. Junior has a touch of class having won at Royal Ascot and seems primed for this. Good luck everyone!

    Flat Racing - Wednesday 16th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 16th March You've kind of put me off a bit Russ, I don't like backing horses that are too short, but I quite fancy Pelmanism tonight in the last. As you say, he's up 6lbs since winning here at same trip, but I thought he comfortably had that in hand. I don't see Phillip as a negative even over Callan, but considering he and Kevin Ryan have gone all the way down to Kempton in the last race for one ride, they're not just there to reduce his mark with a poor run. I'd have a small win bet on PELMANISM, there is 9/4 available at b365

×
×
  • Create New...