writeups
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Re: Warwick 12/07
Never landed a blow here and handled the bend terribly, just going up 2lb has certainly put it to the floor and is not well treated as expected.As above was a non runner i am going to put up a Henry Candy horse here is Doyles Lodge Has only gone up 2lb when finishing second last time out, and will relish a bit of cut in the ground and even though has something to find wirth a couple in the race including Mick is Back, i just feel that this is a progressing horse and Henry Candy seems to come to hand at this time of year. Wups -
Re: Warwick 12/07 As above was a non runner i am going to put up a Henry Candy horse here is Doyles Lodge Has only gone up 2lb when finishing second last time out, and will relish a bit of cut in the ground and even though has something to find wirth a couple in the race including Mick is Back, i just feel that this is a progressing horse and Henry Candy seems to come to hand at this time of year. Wups
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Re: Thursdays NAPS ~ 12/07/07
Very well done on your nap, has shown ability now at 3yrs old and the potential is there and this should give Stan Moore some good confidence going to Turfway Park in September and back to the Carnival in Dubai next year.Traffic Guard 4.20 Newmarket. Consistent type who's been running at a slightly higher level recently. Should apprecate this slight drop in grade, and with no trip and ground worries, should again run his race. Has the bare form to go well, so all in all it all looks in place for a decent effort which can take him close. The favourite the one they all have to beat, but not much between the selection and the jolly and so the value lies with this chap! -
Re: Laying Spencer Thread.
I see your point, but a good start 2-2, i will let this go for 7 days and revalueate after the week, but i think over all he is worth laying and some money to be made against him. i will be giving reasoning why evey time i selected one of his rides why i have chosen to lay it.For a jockey who is 5/4 to win the title, going to two meetings a day, only 10 behind Sanders, and well clear of Moore, I personally wouldn't lay too much of him. He's obviously after quantity not quality to get the title back. Look at what you'd have done if you layed 'no-hopers' at Royal Ascot, a 50-1 winner. Even 1 pt @ £25 takes some clawing back. -
Well i seem to be losing money backing the guy so i am going to play the dangerous game of laying his rides for the next 7 days and see where we go from there...Pt stake will be less than the Backing as this is more liable. 1pt = £25.00 Newmarket Turf Italia E.B.F. Novice Stakes (Class 2) (2YO only) Harry Bluetooth from the James fanshawe is the first we will take on with Jamie on board, this was a costly purchase as a yearling (525,000 euro's) and is half brother to New Beginning, cost 66,000 euro's as a 2yr old,and on pedigree will want further in time as the dam was a 9-10f specialist, is entered in the Gimcrack at York and the St Ledger at Doncaster, so this is a hard one to oppose,has got a good draw and fanshawe has a 15% here with his 2yr olds, this could give me a bad start, but i am willing to take this on and lay this duely as the jockey seems to be having no confidence on getting winners. 1pt Lay @ 8 Betfair = £25.00 Xplor Conditions Stakes (CLASS 2) Jamie rides the very much inform Eddie Jock who won last time out at Ascot in the Brittania Stakes over a mile on good to firm ground, has again got in his favour the ground and going, but has to compete with a 7lb rise in the Handicap, has gone up 17lb since winning the Shergar Cup at Ascot and i am not convinced that this will get up the hill here and is vunerable of its career highest mark. 1pt Lay @ 2.64 = £25.00 Folkestone 18.20 Jamie travels to the Kent track this evening and gets his first ride for Milanollo for Micheal Bell, despite having a good strike rate here of 1-2 50% cost 105,000gns as a yearling and is from a family that have had winners at 7f-10f, the form shows 1-13 on 2 year old winners this season, and despite this being the most expensive of the bunch and this is not the greatest of maidens might give the lay a sweat, but i think this will be better going over a mile in the future. 1pt Lay @ 10.5 Betfair = £25.00 18.50 Shela House is his next port of call and rides here for James Fanshawe, finished 6th on his debut over a mile going down by 20L to Held Captive from the Ed Dunlop yard.this horse for me is going to be more effective over middle distances of 1m 2f - 1m 4f, and this looks a bit to much on the sharp side this evening. 1pt Lay @ 17 = £25.00 19.20 teams up here with which looks the exchanges favourite, Colwyn Bay won last time out at Kempton on the AW, when beating Mister Completely by one and a half lengths and has to compete with a 7lb weight rise and a 6lb penalty in the handicap. has never won on tuif as both of his wins have been at Kempton on the AW, so this is being apposed 2pt Lay @ 5.1 Betfair = £50.00 Opening Pot : £2000 Outlay : £150.00 Profit / Loss : -£255.00 / +£100.00 Commission 5% : £12.75 / £5.00 Closing Bank : £1828.25 GL Wups
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Re: Rio on the flat 07 May i ask what value is a Pt stake...??
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Re: Fairyhouse 12/07 Had a look at the selection and has a good chance under tonights weight, handles the trip, but that was on good to firm ground, and there has been a lot of rain in Ireland over the last few days and just have reservations on the going for this and has to deal with a 12lb weight rise which could be hard in softning conditions. I like the look of E Griffin's Pure Theatre with Davy Russell in the plate.has a 15% strike rate with the trainer at the course, which is not great stats, but Davy has been riding with so much confidence on improving horses this year to suggest that this can improve on his 4th at Tipperary to Bambootcha, the step up in trip i think he will get and looks a good prospect and at 3/1 on Betfair on offer looks good value.. But GL with the selection tonight Wups
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Re: Thursdays EW Fancies ~ 12/07/07 KLEINWORT BENSON STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) - 14.35PM Now going against my principles on selecting a Jamie Spencer ridden mount at the three day meet, as his stats 4-38 wins which by his standards is not good enough to contend for the title, but i am going to give this an each way selection today, as being from the Ed Dunlop yard, this gelding by Kings Best could actually squeeze into a place out of a good draw, King Charles was last seen when finishing second to Lacework at Redcar over a mile and a quarter on good to firm ground and went down by a length off a mark of 87,won here over a mile last year when beating Zafonic Storm by a short head off a mark of 82, the step up in trip should not be no problem and with odds of 18/1 available in places could be a each way steal. Suitable Ground : Good to Firm Jockey % at track : 14.00% / +£0.50 Trainer % at track : 17.00% / Level Combo % at track : 15.00% / +£4.00
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Re: Warwick 12/07 WARWICK 12TH JULY 2007 MITIE HANDICAP (CLASS 4) - 14.55PM Ann Stokell's Pawan is probably going to get his chance again at a track that the trainer again has good stats, only wins once a year and this usually comes in the summer months like July or August, little early this year but has been running well enough to suggest that maybe today is that win,was last seen when finishing second over course and distance when going down by a short head at 14/1,and looked to have the race when being beaten on the line by a John Spearing improver in Nobillisima, that was off todays mark, but has to compete with a harsh 18lb rise in the weights and this could of seen off his chances of getting that eluded win, but is ultra consistant this year, and even though is 3lb higher than when winning last year, still looks well handicapped,quiet a few of these are going up in the handicap and Pawan looks to be sitting on a winning mark,the stats are there to suggest that the weight disadvantage looks to much ,but another chance is respected this afternoon and the ground is right, and if Ann Stokell can hit the front a furlong out and just hold out he has a chance Suitable Ground : Good to Soft Jockey % at track : 9.00% / +£8.00 Trainer % at track : 17.00% / +£46.63 Combo % at track : 0.00% / -£42.00
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Re: Thursdays NAPS ~ 12/07/07 TNT JULY STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) - 14.00PM - Nap Julie Fielden's two year old Spirit of Sharjah comes in fine form and finished behind Winker Watson over 5f in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot going down by one and a half lengths, and ran on inside the final furlong, and just failed to take 2nd, today steps up to 6f for the first time, and this trip is going to be more of his distance and should reverse the form with WW this afternoon, as WW is attempting the trip also for the first time and their is not enough efficient stats to show in pedigree that WW is going to handle the step up from the optimal trip, Spirit of Sharjah looks a good prospect and with this being Fieldens fourth runner over the july course she has become one of the inform trainers this year and should go close today. Suitable Ground : Good to Firm Jockey % at track : 29.00% / +£16.00 Trainer % at track : 8.00% / +£5.00 Combo % at track : 100.00% / +£10.50
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Re: LAY of the day ~ 11/07/07
Ouch, Kinane got this home well, backers on Betfair got on £800 @ 20/1 and £77 @ 50/1 in running...not a hot one there for the layers..a game i have no knowledge of and is probably a hard game to play Wups2.35 Newmarket lay the fav Yoursothrilling who will do well to win from stall 13. Current lay odds are 2.95 with Betfair this was the analysis in the RP from royal ascot : While it's true You'resothrilling did not have a trouble-free run, it would be stretching things to claim she should have won. She flyjumped leaving the stalls and was then settled towards the rear, although ahead of the winner. When Nijoom Dubai began her effort, she went after her but had to be switched twice, on the second occasion after being slightly hampered by the winner. While that makes it sound as if she was unlucky, she was always playing second fiddle through the final furlong. -
Re: Newmarket 11/07/07
Well done on this - great shout @ 12/1 and played at 17's So we should of established by now that high numbers are going to dominate at Newmarket, but on a sad note Channel 4 racing have lost their long time sponsor of the Tote at the end of the year.Shmookh -1st Well done Woody :clap -
Re: Daily NAPS ~ 11/07/07 IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING CHERRY HINTON STAKES (GROUP 2) 2.35 Ballydoyle's You'rsothrilling was touched off when getting no sort of run in the Albany Stakes at Ascot over 6f on good to firm ground, and had to chase Mick Channon's Nijoom Dubai under Jamie Spencer by one and a quarter lengths, and had to be held up towards the rear, and had to switch right and was making eye carthing headway from 2f out, had to check and had not got a clear run and again had to switch to the right over a 1f out, and stayed on to chase the winner inside furlong but could not prevail, things have to fall right for this, and is very much a hold up horse which always a worry in big fields of this nature but i feel Mick Kinane will judge this right this afternoon and make amends for Ascot and win this. Suitable Ground : Good to Soft Jockey % at Track : 29% / +£16.00 Trainer % at Track : 33% / +£1.75 Combo % at Track : 33% / +£0.75
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Re: Jamie Spencer - Rated / Over rated Talking through my pocket.. I have no problem on the criticism with above line, maybe i will just stick to the selections and not criticise rides or their riders..Spencer is not the only jockey out there that deserves criticism..but last night at Wolverhampton he had a linch mob abusing him..so it's not just me who is doing the criticism, on course punters are also doing their b*****ks on his tactics at present. Wups
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Re: Jamie Spencer - Rated / Over rated
Well the source said Jamie was getting constant barrage of abuse from the punters when he came in..shouting "Tosser" Spencer f**K off home, how much are the layers paying you" so apparently Andrew thought it wise to change the ride and not cause him embarrassment. If i was there, i think i would thrown my pint over him, but not my jack daniels as he would not be worth that, but his reputation will not be great steed, watch him out at Newmarket, but i am going to warn you leave him at Chester, he has a 2% strike rate over 7 seasons. WupsJust posted in your thread and the Wolverhampton thread reagarding the ride on History Boy. I thought he might get an ear bashing and thought he might have spit his dummy out and fcuked off home. He was awful in that race and as much as I like the kid I am the 1st to admit when he's crap. Fair enough drop it to the back of the field but start to make a move a bit sooner, you can't give other horses such a lead like that and I was right to be worried about it finding nothing off the bridle. Dreadful ride after the performance on PL race day, it was like 2 different horses but the same god damn jockey. -
Re: Jamie Spencer - Rated / Over rated News from the track from a close friend at track side near the weighing room has informed me that a difference of a opinion with Jamie and the stewards on the ride on History Boy, no ban has been indorsed, but he has been stepped down by Andrew Balding on the ride in the last, and Jimmy Quinn has picked up the spare ride Now significantly enough spare rides at Wolverhampton have a 29% success rate of coming off. But the weighing room chatter was also into that Jamie came into a barrage of abuse from punters outside the weighing room after his poor ride on History Boy. Wups
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Re: Jamie Spencer - Rated / Over rated Now you can see why i have just wasted my money on Jamie Spencer this evening, with three appalling rides on horse's that got well here,and trainers inform..some trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee,spencer thinks he is masterful from the back of a race, when exactly he is the worst ever judge of a race on the circuit at present. Scroll - No ride at all History Boy - Over confident ride Time to start playing Spencer to Lay on everything he rides. and i am calm but there is no need for punters to get ripped off by a jockey that will never win the title again
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Re: NAPS Thread ~ 10/07/07
Well done on Turnkey, i backed this 2 runs ago when just denied, thought to much weight this afternoon , but done it with plenty in hand (Nice):clap16.15 Pontefract – Turnkey (E/W) 13.00 @ Paddypower Another race with a lot of runners, where the field will be led by another strong favourite. However, again I’m going to look for some value outside the favourite. Turnkey takes to top weight here, but on its day, is good enough to defy this. Disappointing last time out, but gets its favoured ground this afternoon. Finished runner-up in a similar race over the same trip, going and a similar mark at the end of last month. 0.5 Eachway NAP please. ... hopefully the price will hold up now that Braddock has been pulled. -
Re: NAPS Thread ~ 10/07/07 WARD LOVETT SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) - 20.10PM - UTTOXETER Dave Wintle's nine year old has to come into the equation this evening off a bottomless weight, was last seen when over course and distance finished three parts of a length behind Countback when in receipt of 11lb, is getting the same weight allowance tonight and the pair were 22L in front of anything else in the race, has to contend with a 3lb rise in the weights,but Tony Carrolls Countback showed determination to hold on here last time and comes here with out a penalty and drops 5lb in the weights due to Paddy Merrigans allowance, the jockey has a great strike rate here and if produces a slim ability of what he showed last time out will be tough to beat has finished behind Are you There over at Worcester on soft ground and the weight advantage goes in favour of Are you there who is getting 5lb back from the selection and could hold the form, but Countback relishes a battle and no doubt Tony Carroll has got him spot on again to run a big race
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Re: Quick question I think this means $240,000 bought as a yearling as a foal, and then again was purchased as a 2 year old for $450,000, it has been sold on twice, once in the Keenland Sales and then in the Calder sales in the US, the first sale was bought by an agent, then sold on as a yearling, until Noseda has no doubt purchased this in the sales for $450,000, so must of shown some interesting sparkle on the time scales at Calder. Wups
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Re: Pontefract 10/07 DIANNE NURSERY (CLASS 4) - 14.45PM Rod Millman has a very good strike rate here with his 2 year olds, and saddles Stage Acclaim this afternoon, was last seen when finishing a poor sixth in a hot novice stakes at Windsor over an extended 5f on good to firm ground and eventually went down by 7 lengths, prior to that won a maiden at Salisbury over 5f on good to firm ground, now the ground has come up on the good side of soft and even though is unproven on the ground can still run a big race with the services of Ryan Moore, is trying 6f this afternoon which looks to be beneficial and should go close if adapting to the going. Suitable Ground : Good Jockey % at Track : 14% / -£3.25 Trainer % at Track : 33% / -£0.50 Combo % at Track : 0% / -£2.00 KING RICHARD III HANDICAP (CLASS 3) - 16.15PM Daryll Holland has a very good strike rate at the track and rides out for Micheal Dods this afternoon on Hiccups , was last seen recently when finishing third to Guilded Warrior over an extended 7f on good to soft ground at Warwick going down by 10L,and had a rating of 82, is dropping 9lb in the weights and is coming here with out a penalty which puts him right in the mix of things here this afternoon, the trainer and jockey pose a massive 40% strike rate with their older horses here at the track, with a double figure price on offer it would be advised to play each way,as needs to be held up to the last possible moment. Suitable Ground : Good to Soft Jockey % at Track : 44% / +£25.00 Trainer % at Track : 10% / -£12.50 Combo % at Track : 40% / +£47.50 GL Wups
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Re: Lingfield ~ 10/07/07 LINGFIELD 10TH JULY 2007 LINGFIELDPARK.CO.UK MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) - 16.00PM Marozi from the Micheal Jarvis yard might be the horse to beat in this contest, but with results going pear shape recently we are going to take this on with Jeremy Noseda's Sweetsformysweet, a $450,000 purchase as a 2 year old. is sister to Wild Wildcat, multiple sprint winner at 2-4 in US, this filly comes from a good back ground and starting her career on the Awt could be the wise move, has a better draw than the favourite who has to come from the car park in stall eleven and if getting first run on the fav here and uses the draw advantage should be a big player. Suitable Ground : Good Jockey % at Track : 34% / +£30.96 Trainer % at Track : 23% / -£4.83 Combo % at Track : 26% / -£5.39 GL Wups
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Re: EW Fancies ~ 10/07/07 BOOK ONLINE FOR A DISCOUNT HANDICAP (CLASS 6) - 17.00PM Lingfield has been a good haunt for the Brendan Powell yard and sends a big outsider here in The Iron Giant, was last seen when finishing fifth over a mile and a quarter at Lingfield, and was slightly out paced approaching the final furlong, has not shown much this year with only three runs, with two of them being on the level,finished third over a mile and a quarter here back in December last year going down by two and a quarter lengths to Picador, now no doubt Brendan has trained this to go hurdling some time, and steps him up in trip this afternoon to 1m 6f, and looking at the level form and being realistic this has not really got a chance of winning this contest, but could run well enough to squeeze a place at a nice price if getting the new trip and has the services of Richard Kingscote who claims a handy 3lb and has a respectable 38% strike rate here.so on that note at 20/1+ it should be advised to play this to small stakes each way Suitable Ground : Good / Awt Jockey % at Track : 38% / +£21.83 Trainer % at Track : 10% / -£45.00 Combo % at Track : 20% / +£6.50 GL Wups
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Re: Ripon 09/07
with the ground going heavy this should suit Micheal Dods DUCAL PIP SQUEAK' date=' has finished third on two occassions and the run at Haydock suggested a each play looks good value, with Four Miracles coming out and winning last month[/quote'] Was unlucky there :nana 2nd 8/1 Wups
Laying Spencer Thread.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Laying Spencer Thread. well funny enough, J Spencer came in for Frankie to ride Moorhouse Lad to win at 7/2F, this was never played as i had it as frankie riding, phew, but his form shows now...5-42 rides. Wups