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Monty Hall

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    CL 14-15/4 QF return leg

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL 14-15/4 QF return leg Porto - Man Utd Selection: Over 2.5 10/10 Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01 (Back) Porto is a very good team, Perhaps better than Man United. They have proved it in the last match. They also have a good record vs the Reds and it wasnt a one off with Mourinho. Man United must take risks in order to advance, they have a poor record in Portugal but I believe the goals will come. CS 2-1 and 1-2 Arsenal - Villareal Selection: Arsenal (-1) (Asian Handicap) Expekt @ 1.89 (Back) In the 1st leg Villarreal showed they can press Arsenal and get a goal. As soon as they scored they relaxed their pressure and tried to contain Arsenal. Villarreal have shown to be soft in defending giving Arsenal players plenty of room and that they're physically inferior to the English team. At the Emirates Arsenal are much better than then they are away in Europe. Villarreal will miss some players but even with Senna I doubt they can do anything to stop the Gunners. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    LOD Week #4 match list

    Premier League Saturday 18 April 2009 Portsmouth[3/16]v Bolton[2/16](16:00CET) 2.18 3.40 3.90 Sunday 19 April 2009 Manchester City[0/16] v West Bromwich[4/16] (16:00CET) 1.66 4.00 7.00 Primera División Saturday 18 April 2009 Athletic Bilbao[2/15] v La Coruña[3/15] (20:00CET) 2.20 3.45 3.55 Atlético Madrid[1/14] v Numancia[1/15] (22:00CET) 1.40 5.10 9.80 Getafe[4/15] v Barcelona[1/14] (20:00CET) 7.60 4.80 1.48 Málaga[4/15] v Mallorca[2/15] (20:00CET) 2.03 3.60 3.90 Recreativo Huelva[4/15] v Real Madrid[1/14] (22:00CET) 6.00 4.20 1.62 Sunday 19 April 2009 Espanyol[5/15] v Santander[2/15] (15:00CET) 2.22 3.40 3.60 Valladolid[2/15] v Villarreal[6/15] (17:00CET) 2.56 3.45 3.02 Betis[7/15] v Sporting Gijon[0/15] (21:00CET) 1.68 3.95 5.60 Bundesliga Saturday 18 April 2009 Karlsruhe[2/13] v Hoffenheim[4/13] (15:30CET) 3.05 3.45 2.46 Wolfsburg[1/13] v Leverkusen[2/13] (15:30CET) 2.05 3.60 4.30 Sunday 19 April 2009 Hamburg[1/13] v Hannover[2/13] (17:00CET) 1.49 4.60 7.60 Serie A Saturday 18 April 2009 Genoa[4/15] v Lazio[1/15] (18:00CET) 1.81 3.60 5.50 Juventus[3/15] v Inter[2/15] (20:30CET) 2.70 3.25 2.97 Sunday 19 April 2009 Atalanta[1/16] v Reggina[4/15] (15:00CET) 1.65 3.37 6.50 Catania[1/15] v Sampdoria[4/15] (15:00CET) 2.44 3.20 3.45 Palermo[0/15] v Bologna[5/15] (15:00CET) 1.77 3.60 5.50 Udinese[5/15] v Fiorentina[2/16] (15:00CET) 2.94 3.15 2.78 Milan[2/15] v Torino[6/15] (20:30CET) 1.33 5.20 12.50 Ligue 1 Saturday 18 April 2009 Caen[6/15] v Nancy[2/15] (19:00CET) 2.28 3.10 3.75 Sochaux[6/15] v Auxerre[1/15](19:00CET) 2.05 3.20 4.60 Sunday 19 April 2009 Home PSG[1/15] v Le Havre[3/15] (17:00CET) 1.25 6.00 17.50 Eredivisie Saturday 18 April 2009 AZ Alkmaar[1/15] v Vitesse[3/15] (20:45CET) 1.29 6.50 13.00 Sunday 19 April 2009 Willem II[1/15] v ADO[1/15] (14:30CET) 2.22 3.55 3.65 PSV[3/15] v Ajax[2/15] (16:30CET) 2.46 3.50 3.10 Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Espanyol 2.80 -10.0 Real Madrid (-1.5) 1.88 +8.8 Ajax -2 1.85 +8.5 Groningen 1.7 -10.0 Stuttgart 2.21 +12.1 Wolfsburg 1.98 +9.8 Cottbus 2.34 +13.4 Schalke 04 1.3 +3.0 Fiorentina 1.74 +7.4 Bologna 2.21 -10.0 Chelsea 1.3 +3.0 Valencia 2.25 +12.5 Sevilla -1 ah 1.99 -10.0 Fulham 4.5 +35 20 Matches 2 Draws 14 Picks Invested: 140.0 113.5 - 40.0 Clean profit = 73.5 *Note Aston Villa and Real Madrid Over were not part of the LOD

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Ive picked the following Wolfsburg 1.98 Cottbus 2.34 Schalke 04 1.3 Fiorentina 1.74 Bologna 2.21 Chelsea 1.3 Do you have any ideas as to the above or the Toulouse v Nantes? or the Hannover v Hertha Berlin? My Picks at Sports-Punter.Com Edit I forgot to add: Valencia 2.25 Sevilla -1 ah 1.99

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology LOD Week #3 match list Premier League Saturday 11 April 2009 Chelsea(5/15) v Bolton(2/15) (16:00CET) 1.32 6.00 16.50 Portsmouth(2/15) v West Brom(3/15) (16:00CET) 1.76 3.75 5.70 Sunday 12 April 2009 Manchester City(0/15) v Fulham(7/15) (17:10CET) 1.97 3.50 4.80 Primera División Saturday 11 April 2009 Barcelona(2/15)v Recreativo(5/14)(20:00CET) 1.17 9.00 24.00 Sunday 12 April 2009 Gijon(0/14) v Valencia(4/14) (17:00CET) 3.70 3.40 2.25 Numancia(2/14) v Espanyol(5/15) (17:00CET) 2.74 3.30 2.90 Sevilla(2/15) v Getafe(6/14) (19:00CET) 1.58 4.20 7.40 Real Madrid(2/15) v Valladolid(1/14) (17:00CET) 1.32 5.90 12.50 Bundesliga Saturday 11 April 2009 Bayern München(2/12) v Frankfurt(4/13) (15:30CET) 1.35 6.00 13.00 Dortmund(9/13) v Köln(1/13) (15:30CET) 1.83 3.75 5.50 Cottbus(1/12) v Arminia(6/13) (15:30CET) 2.40 3.40 3.40 Hannover(6/13) v Hertha Berlin(2/12) (15:30CET) 2.64 3.45 3.00 M'Gladbach(2/13) v Wolfsburg(5/13) (15:30CET) 4.30 3.70 1.96 Schalke 04(3/12) v Karlsruhe(1/13) (15:30CET) 1.37 5.10 12.00 Sunday 12 April 2009 Stuttgart(3/13) v Hamburg(2/13) (17:00CET) 2.20 3.55 3.60 Serie A Saturday 11 April 2009 Bologna(3/14) v Siena(2/15) (15:00CET) 2.24 3.25 3.90 Fiorentina(2/14) v Cagliari(3/14) (15:00CET) 1.72 3.70 6.40 Ligue 1 Saturday 11 April 2009 Toulouse(5/15) v Nantes(2/15) (19:00CET) 1.67 3.75 6.80 Eredivisie Sunday 12 April 2009 Groningen(0/14) v Vitesse(3/14) (14:30CET) 1.73 3.90 5.75 Ajax(2/14) v Willem II(4/14) (16:30CET) 1.21 8.20 17.50 Good luck

    CL - 7th & 8th of April

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL - 7th & 8th of April Some interesting stats for tonight: In 4 matches Barça have scored (11) and conceded (7) in every game in the Camp Nuo. Only drew once and 3 Overs. In 4 matches Bayern have always scored (10 same as Barça) and conceded in only 2 matches (3) with one draw and 3 Overs. In 4 matches at Anfield Liverpool always scored (9) and conceded in 2 (2) with one draw and 2 Overs In 4 away matches Chelsea have scored in 3(4) and conceded in 3(6) with 3 draws and 2 Overs. They're the only team with a negative goal tally. Good luck

    CL - 7th & 8th of April

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL - 7th & 8th of April

    Some pieces of Lahm interview: "We dont want to concede a goal first, then we will drive back with a good result. A very good example was Man Utd last year, they defended with 11 players and got back with a 0:0 score. That is the key. It doesnt matter if we play with one or two strikers, important is the defensive behaviour of everyone playing. We cannot allow them many chances and also have to set some pinpricks ourselves." Sounds like a counterattack tactic with Ribery and Toni infront and rest defending :lol Good luck Caveman :ok
    Cheers all - not concluded yet but..As if Bayern or any other team in the world has another option than to counter.. :\ But Bayern have Ribéry, He is tenacious and that is a big big bonus.. Barça are not immune and desire can carry a long way. GL

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    paddy power offer a draw no bet on footie games so if a draw was to happen you wouldnt lose your stake.
    Thats true many bookies do.. i take DOB and can still lose if the other team wins.. LOD wants to identify teams that dont draw from 12- 17 matches I can expect one or two to draw.. My problem is identifying the winners.. They are usually: 1- the better sides 2- the more motivated and capable sides 3- historically favoured sides..

    CL - 7th & 8th of April

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL - 7th & 8th of April

    Barcelona look nailed on to me. Apart from the obvious stats about their home record etc, they managed to rest Messi, Alves and Henry at the weekend when winning away to Valladoid after the demanding international week. They now have more or less a fully fit squad with Iniesta and Toure back, and the manager has said that the rotation policy will go out the window on Wednesday and his best XI will play. Bayern are a team I love to watch but therein lies part of the problem. They love to pour forward and attack teams but are often caught out at the back with a very average defence. Losing 5-1 at Wolfsburg was anything but the ideal preparation for a match at the Camp Nou and the manager admitted it has affected team morale. There are also reports on goal.com that Ribery may be a doubt due to a foot injury...this would be a huge blow although I can see him playing unless its very serious. I think Bayern will play a game that they are not used to, ie they will play for a draw and defend in numbers but I just cant see Barca not scoring at least 1 over 90 minutes and think the Germans will struggle to. Barca have been backed into 4/9 since the weekend, although you can still get 1/2 in Coral shops in the UK. 9/10 bet for me.
    What I see is greater motive/Desire for Bayern to win. Barça are probably the best team in Europe this season but losing the title to Real will be worse than losing out to Bayern and Bayern want the CL Cup more than the local title. Bayern superior motive emanates from their players namely Ribèry hunger for silverware after none of FCB players were nominated last year for any UEFA prizes.

    CL - 7th & 8th of April

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL - 7th & 8th of April Cheers Jase and good luck, History in Europe goes a long way and the Gunners have not presented a strong ability in away matches. As far as Barças' AH.. I wouldnt be s`sure about them beating Bayern! In fact I thinks Bayern is to go through and Camp Nuo game to draw!.. Liverpool - Chelsea Liverpool 10/10 Paddy Power @ 2.38 (Back) Under 2 10/10 Pinnacle Sports @ 1.87 (Back) For me there can only be one outcome to this match. Statistically this could be a draw but Liverpools current form is too good for that and Liverpool has only 1 draw in the CL this season. They only conceded 2 goals at Anfiled and Chelsea only scored 4 away from Stamford Bridge conceding 6, far from their league defensive record. These teams have a long history between them in the CL: 2007/2008 Semi-finals Chelsea - Liverpool 3:2 aet 2007/2008 Semi-finals Liverpool - Chelsea 1:1 2006/2007 Semi-finals Liverpool - Chelsea 4:1 pso 2006/2007 Semi-finals Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0 2005/2006 Group G Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0 2005/2006 Group G Liverpool - Chelsea 0:0 2004/2005 Semi-finals Liverpool - Chelsea 1:0 2004/2005 Semi-finals Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0 My 2nd bet is Under 2.5 and CS 1:0 Good luck and god bless

    CL - 7th & 8th of April

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: CL - 7th & 8th of April Villareal - Arsenal Selection: Villareal 10/10 Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90 (Back) Arsenal have a poor away record, a poor record in this stage of the CL and also against Spanish opposition. Their main problem is in the defense. Villarreal have been consistent both in the league and CL at home and Villareals' players just as good as Arsenals'. It will also be payback since Romans' missed penalty. Arsenal failed to beat out-of-shape Roma and this will be much much harder. Good luck and god bless

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Results: English Premier Manchester Utd(1/14) v Aston Villa 3-2 Ligue 1 PSG(1/14) v Nice(2/15) 2-1 Bundesliga Hamburg(1/12) v Hoffenheim 1-0 Wolfsburg(1/12) v Bayern München 5-1 Karlsruher(1/12) v Mönchengladbach(2/12) 0-0 Serie A Atalanta(1/15) v Fiorentina(2/15) 1-2 Palermo(0/14) v Torino(6/14) 1-0 Siena(5/14) v Lazio(1/14) 2-0 La Liga Atlético Madrid(1/13) v Osasuna(7/14) 2-4 Sporting Gijon(0/13) v Santander(2/14) 0-2 Málaga(4/14) v Real Madrid(1/13) 0-1 Betis(6/13) v Numancia(0/14) 3-3 Valladolid(2/14) v Barcelona(1/13) 0-1 Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar(1/14) v Den Haag(1/14) 4-1 Willem II(1/14) v Breda(3/15) 2-0 2/15 Drew I Also expected W. Brom and Hoffenheim to draw but neither did. I only took MU -1 But knowing both teams do not draw helped me in a live bet. I personally am sorry not to have used the LOD system because of time constraints, New managers are not decisive factors. Teams' goals, aspirations and necessities as well as historic records are. I definitely think I am on to something here and hope you share your thoughts on game in the remaining weeks of the season. Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Man Utd - Aston Villa Man Utd (-1) (Asian Handicap) 10/10 The main reason behind this bet is the LOD (Lack of draws) Man Utd are 1/14 at Old Trafford and Aston Villa have no draws in 15 away games. So I either believe Aston Villa can win which I don't or back Man Utd. Villa has a poor record at Old Trafford and that is a strong indication to me that a home win will happen. Good luck and god bless

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    April 4 - 5 match list
    Today, 05:00
    Match list of teams that rarely draw: Home (Draws/Home games) v Away (Draws/Away games) English Premier Sunday 5 April 2009 Manchester Utd(1/14) v Aston Villa(0/15) (17:00CET) 1.45 4.40 10.50 Ligue 1 Sunday 5 April 2009 PSG(1/14) v Nice(2/15) (16:00CET) 1.70 3.20 5.00 Bundesliga Saturday 4 April 2009 Hamburg(1/12) v Hoffenheim(4/12) (14:30CET) 1.90 3.48 4.05 Wolfsburg(1/12) v Bayern München(4/13) (14:30CET) 2.61 3.27 2.62 Sunday 5 April 2009 Karlsruher(1/12) v Mönchengladbach(2/12) (16:00CET) 2.39 3.25 2.95 Serie A Sunday 5 April 2009 Atalanta(1/15) v Fiorentina(2/15) (12:00CET) 2.57 3.10 3.02 Palermo(0/14) v Torino(6/14) (14:00CET) 1.78 3.30 5.30 Siena(5/14) v Lazio(1/14) (14:00CET) 2.49 3.10 3.14 La Liga Sunday 5 April 2009 Atlético Madrid(1/13) v Osasuna(7/14) (14:00CET) 1.66 3.60 5.55 Sporting Gijon(0/13) v Santander(2/14) (14:00CET) 2.68 3.15 2.70 Málaga(4/14) v Real Madrid(1/13) (14:00CET) 4.85 3.45 1.75 Betis(6/13) v Numancia(0/14) (14:00CET) 1.62 3.68 5.60 Valladolid(2/14) v Barcelona(1/13) (14:00CET) 6.70 4.35 1.45 Eredivisie Saturday 4 April 2009 AZ Alkmaar(1/14) v Den Haag(1/14) 1.16 6.38 12.71 Sunday 5 April 2009 Willem II(1/14) v Breda(3/15) 2.78 3.34 2.31 * Teams that tend to draw a lot or have drawn last round.

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Hi Due to me being unaware this week has been losing money. This system is rather new going on 3 weeks and I am amazed of how much it thought me as well as learning from other punter here. The 1st and most obvious is that teams change their mood like the terrain changes when you climb a mountain. This is the closing part of the season and more emotions are involved. So I had to be more acutely aware and draws have to be warning signs and studied. 2nd is the importance of historic meetings (h2h) has on matches. In the lack of draws it had the most baring on the result. There are some leagues that are great for lack of draws and I found my new (5th) favourite league: Argentine..

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Sorry about that I post them in the proper thread and should post them here as well: Unfortunately this week was a setback :( West Brom - Bolton Bet on:Bolton Result: Draw -10.0 Catania - Lazio Bet on: Lazio Result: Home win -10.0 Energie Cottbus - Köln Bet On: Köln Result 0:2 @ 3.1 = 31.0 Hoffenheim - Hannover 96 Bet on:Hoffenheim -1 Result: Draw -10.0 Liverpool - Aston Villa Bet on: Aston Villa Result: Home win -10.0 AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord Bet on: Feyenoord Result: Draw -10.0 Roda - Den Haag No Bet Result: Home win Man City - Sunderland Bet on: Man City -1 Result: 1-0 (Push) invested : 60.0 pts Return: 31.0 pts ============ Week #2: -29.0 pts Total bank = 77.2 -29.0 = 48.2 TBC

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Catania - Lazio No draw but I was wrong to trust Lazio and I was prepared to be. Sevilla - Valldolid Sevilla are very strong in character and I should have backed the handicap. AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord The main reasons are the lack of draws (LOD). The current form both teams are in and the positive h2h record favouring the guests. TBH this is my 1st ever (that I can recall) bet in the Eredivisie. This week isn't going so well for me but I decided to take one more bet. Alkmaar have only lost at day #1 and not lost or even conceded except for the win over Willem II 3-1. Feyenoord are in good form but most importantly have an excellent record vs AZ and can most certainly win this as declared by manager Vlemmings, even withut Jon Dahl Tomasson. An away win would mean Feyenoord would complete it's 1st 3rd win in a trot this season and I think it could be time for a 1st (2nd) AZ defeat. Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Its a 2nd draw for Albion that ruins bets! I suppose that there are teams that will start drawing games.. A draw is a red light because it is based on not drawing but two draws is too much. Bromwich and Hannover won't be counted on any more. Kölns' win covers the investment

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology I have not placed bets on these but non of the results were draws. In fact there was only 1 draw this week (St. Etienne vs Werder Bremen) If we'd taken the Double Chance on these game we would get a 12 pts profit.

    ThuShaktar Donetsk CSKA Moscow2.33.53.451.3
    ThuGalatasaray Hamburg2.43.53.11.33
    ThuBragaPSG2.383.253.101.33
    ThuAalborgMan City2.93.352.551.33
    ThuZenit Udinese1.823.755.001.25
    Ive searched for more markets since this week there are only 7 matches. Lower leagues are don't provide LOD teams so I picked the following teams from France Ligue 1 and Netherlands Eredivisie: PSG Home AZ Alkmaar Home Groningen Home Willem II Home Den Haag Away Sunday 22 March 2009
    Home Away 1 X 2 DC
    Roda Den Haag 1.86 3.80 4.80 1.3
    Alkmaar Feyenoord 1.55 4.33 8.00 1.2
    Good luck
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