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Monty Hall

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    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    LOD Week #6 Match list

    This week I'll only choose several games from the list if any, at this stage games must be picked with a pincer. Saturday 9 May 2009 Premier League Bolton[3/17] v Sunderland[5/17] (16:00CET) 2.28 3.35 3.70 West Brom[3/17] v Wigan[4/17] (16:00CET) 2.46 3.50 3.10 Everton[5/17] v Tottenham[3/17] (16:00CET) 2.38 3.40 3.35 West Ham[2/17] v Liverpool[4/17] (18:30CET) 7.20 4.10 1.58 Primera División Athletic Bilbao[2/17] v Real Betis[3/17] (20:00CET) 2.96 3.30 2.76 Sevilla[2/17] v Mallorca[3/17] (20:00CET) 1.65 4.20 6.50 Valencia[4/17] v Real Madrid[1/16] (22:00CET) 2.52 3.65 2.98 Bundesliga Energie Cottbus[1/14] v Bayern München[4/15] (15:30CET) 8.20 4.90 1.47 Hertha Berlin[2/15] v Bochum[6/14] (15:30CET) 1.64 4.00 6.50 Stuttgart[3/15] v Wolfsburg[5/15] (15:30CET) 2.36 3.65 3.25 Dortmund[9/15] v Karlsruhe[1/15] (15:30CET) 1.46 4.90 9.00 Sunday 10 May 2009 Premier League Manchester Utd[1/17] v Manchester City[5/17] (14:30CET) 1.42 5.00 9.80 Arsenal[5/17] v Chelsea[2/17] (17:00CET) 2.68 3.25 3.00 Primera División Almería[4/17] v Gijon[0/17] (17:00CET) 2.01 3.55 4.50 Valladolid[4/17] v Numancia[1/17] (17:00CET) 1.88 3.85 4.75 Barcelona[2/17] v Villarreal[7/17] (19:00CET) 1.36 5.80 10.50 Atlético[1/16] v Espanyol[6/17] (21:00CET) 1.83 3.95 5.00 Serie A Atalanta[1/17] v Genoa[5/17] (15:00CET) 3.40 3.25 2.50 Catania[1/17] v Fiorentina[2/17] (15:00CET) 5.00 3.70 1.85 Cagliari[3/17] v Roma[4/17] (15:00CET) 3.15 3.40 2.52 Chievo[6/17] v Inter[3/17] (15:00CET) 4.25 3.50 2.02 Milan[2/17] v Juventus[4/17] (20:30CET) 1.86 3.75 4.70 Bundesliga M'Gladbach[3/15] v Schalke 04[4/15] (17:00CET) 3.50 3.60 2.20 Eredivisie ADO[5/16] v Vitesse[3/16] (14:30CET) 2.46 2.32 2.74 Ajax[3/16 v Twente[5/16] (14:30CET) 1.65 2.36 3.45 AZ Alkmaar[1/16] v Heerenveen[4/16] (14:30CET) 1.98 2.30 3.05 NEC Nijmegen[7/16] v Sparta Rotterdam[3/16] (14:30CET) 1.77 2.32 4.10 Groningen[1/16] v NAC Breda[3/16] (14:30CET) 2.16 2.30 2.66 Willem II[2/16] v PSV[4/16] (14:30CET) 5.90 2.44 1.42 Monday 11 May 2009 Premier League Newcastle Utd[7/17] v Middlesbrough[2/17] (21:00CET) 2.10 3.50 4.00 Good luck * French Ligue1 matches are next midweek and will be added to the Bundesliga midweek round.

    UEFA Champions League » May 05/06

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League » May 05/06 Arsenal - Man Utd Selection: Draw 10/10 Skybet @ 3.40 (Back) There's no question as to the identity of the better team, Man U were superior to Arsenal in almost every aspect of the game and though it seemed to be a rather balanced affair Arsenal were lucky to get away with this result. Whether Man U will win or draw the game at the Emirates is the question. Two of the best defenses in the competition meet tonight. Arsenal have yet to concede a goal at the Emirates while United have only conceded in the 1:1 at Celtic Park. Man U have only scored 5 away goals, less than Roma(6), Inter(6), Porto(8) and all the other top scorers so I don't expect them to score many goals vs Arsenal. Arsenal have been consistent in scoring but with key defenders Ferdinand and Evra fit it will be hard to break down. All in all a draw will be a fair result to both sides, Arsenal may think it can overcome Man U at home but against a fit and determined Man U it seems too much to ask. Roberto Rosetti has refereed: 05/11/2008 Arsenal - Fenerbahçe 0:0 and 25/11/2008 Villarreal - Manchester United 0:0 I think tonight we'll see something similar 0:0 or 1:1. Good luck and god bless

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Bordeaux double chance X2 @ 1.4 +4.0 Hannover +0.5 1.91 10/10 +9.1 Hannover 4.04 5/10 +15.2 Stuttgart 1.85 10/10 -10.0 Stuttgart -1 2.32 10/10 -10.0 Bayern München 1.32 +3.2 Monaco 2.1 -10.0 Saint-Étienne 1.99 -10.0 Valenciennes 5.1 +41.0 Inter 1.56 +5.6 Málaga 2.46 -10.0 Villarreal 2.5 -10.0 Nantes 1.62 -10.0 PSG 1.84 -10.0 Athletic Bilbao 2.68 -10.0 Racing Santander 2.41 -10.0 Out of 25 games 6 Drew (High 24% :$) TBH I picked teams with a bit over the 20% draws 16 (20) matches Picked 160.0 Units 200.0 Actual 78.1 - 100.0 = -21.9 Loss Can't include Barca, Milan, Fiore and Palermo 16.0 + 6.7+4.7+10.1= +37.5 If I were to play Double chance home/away blindly at 1.3 avg. would still end up with aminimum loss 250.0 * 1.3 = (190.0 * 1.3) - (60.0 +190.0) = -3.0 Last stretch proving too hard for system, every game needs full time investment, not something that always available.

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Sunday 3 May 2009 Serie A Catania[1/16] v Milan[5/16] (15:00CET) 6.30 3.90 1.67 Milan 1.67 Fiorentina[2/16] v Torino[6/16] (15:00CET) 1.47 4.40 9.00 Fiorentina 1.47 Palermo[0/16] v Cagliari[4/16] (15:00CET) 2.10 3.45 4.10 Palermo 2.1 *Started so wont count Ligue 1 Nantes[7/16] v Le Havre[3/16] (17:00CET) 1.62 3.90 7.20 Nantes 1.62 PSG[1/16] v Stade Rennais[8/16] (17:00CET) 1.84 3.55 5.50 PSG 1.84 Primera División Gijon[0/16] v Athletic Bilbao[5/16] (17:00CET) 2.79 3.50 2.68 Athletic Bilbao 2.68 Racing Santander[7/16] v Almería[3/16] (17:00CET) 2.41 3.25 3.45 Racing Santander 2.41

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Saturday 2 May 2009 Ligue 1 Monaco[3/17] v Auxerre[1/16] (19:00CET) 2.10 3.15 4.30 Monaco 2.1 Saint-Étienne[2/16] v Nancy[2/16] (19:00CET) 1.99 3.35 4.50 Saint-Étienne 1.99 Valenciennes[4/16] v Lyon[2/16] (19:00CET) 5.10 3.50 1.95 Valenciennes 5.1 Serie A Inter[5/16] v Lazio[1/16] (20:30CET) 1.56 4.20 7.20 Inter 1.56 Primera División Numancia[3/16] v Málaga[3/16] (20:00CET) 2.97 3.55 2.46 Málaga 2.46 Villarreal[3/16] v Sevilla[4/16] (22:00CET) 2.50 3.50 2.98 Villarreal 2.5

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Saturday 2 May 2009 Bundesliga Arminia[6/14] v Stuttgart[3/14] (15:30CET) 4.40 3.70 1.92 i BACK Stuttgart here, great run hosts in poor form and bad home record Stuttgart 1.85 10/10 Stuttgart -1 2.32 10/10 Bayern München[4/15] v M'Gladbach[3/14] (15:30CET) 1.32 6.40 13.00 With a New manager I'll go with the home side though stay away from the Ah Bayern München 1.32

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology No problem mate, And it's not really looking for patterns rather recognizes teams that either lose or win.. I'm not looking for sequences. And I have to make a correction here: Should be "In LOD you have teams that have much MORE than 10 games without a draw. but lets talk numbers in England you have Aston Villa and Bolton away the rarely draw, Villa with 1/17 away games and Bolton with 2/17 away games.. Funny thing is Villa drew it's 1st with Bolton last week. Bolton are now 3/17 home games.

    Sat May 9 09 English Premier Fulham Aston Villa
    Sat May 16 09 English Premier Middlesbrough Aston Villa
    These are Villa's remaining matches but one thing has to be made clear. This is the 1st month I've ever tried using a list of teams that draw less than say 20 percent of their games. but we have to remember that we are at a last strexh part of the season and the laws a football physics bend because of the gravity. Teams have more emotions involved when they want to survive and some teams have finished their season, some teams prepare for the next season while others fight for silver and gold. So it's a test run and has to be taken woth a bit of salt at this stage of the competitions. Link: A little consistency table Its all down to personal assessment. I wrote at the beggining that it's two methodologies: 1- Recodnising games that either go home or away. 2- find the winner. 2a. if team A (home) is a top 4 and clear favorite, find reason not to back it, if none are found back it otherwise make bold decisions. 2b. If team A and B are more equal in their strength then: H2H - goes a long way to aim our decision If we dont have H2H then Form, Match Importance, Injuries, WDL Sequences along with the usual tests.. Or we can simply pass and check another game or rather go for Home/Away Double chance bets.. I get a list of about 20-25 games out of which there are 3-4 draws.

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Friday 1 May 2009 Bundesliga Bochum[4/15] v Hannover 96[2/14] (20:30CET) 2.20 3.60 3.55 Hannover are the worst travellers in the league, they conceded more than 1 goal in every away game this season (except vs Dortmund that only scored 1) But they have been scoring consistently in the last 7 away games and Bochum have only score 1 and conceded 7 in their last 3 home games. Hannover have never won away this season but increased their chances of survival in last week win over Köln and Bochum were unable to keep a 2 goal advantage over Bremen to lose the game putting more pressure on themselves.. Hannover have 2 draws away but all the rest of the results are losses so I take Hannover not to lose and smaller stakes on a 1st away win.. Hannover +0.5 1.91 10/10 Hannover 4.04 5/10

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology 1st of all this is the 1st serious comment I got here so cheers.. :cheers In LOD you have teams that have much less than 10 games without a draw.. You also have teams that as the season progresses change their colours like newcommers such as W. Brom and Hoffenheim.. You have teams that don't have draws because their the league leaders like Barca and Real Madrid and teams that never draw like Sporting.. I quickly understood that LOD doesn't make it simpler.. You have to look at when those draws occurred and vs who? There's so many factors to be considered that plainly querying bulk league games since time began. Picking football bets has always called for the use of a pincer and LOD is like a way of characterising teams that dont draw, alwing us to take a more calcutaed risk on away win rather than the handicap. You can't quantify yield with bulk tests like that, if it were possible bookies would be out of business.. Also every league has it's own set of rules.. Lets look at this weekend's example in Italy: I know Lazio don't draw away.. The they face Inter.. Inter undefeated at home has just marked a 3rd loss, after each loss they returned home to win games.. Lazios win over Roma kept them in high gear for a couple of rounds but that seem to have ended last week.. May 5th is the day Lazio beat Inter 4-2 7 years ago.. causing them to lose the title.. Inter without Balotelli and Stankovic through suspension.. Could history repeat itself here? I know Lazio are either gonna win this or loose it.. It's just the way they are playing and this game wont be different.. Whether they can surprise Inter again its a completely different question.. If I met someone from Italy right now and they told me to lay Inter I'd go for away win.. But if I can't find a reason not to back Inter I'd back them.. You also have Chelsea vs Fulham.. if it wasa an away game i would rather go for a draw than back Fulham Ah though but since this is at Stanford Bridge Chelsea could still nick a 1:0..

    UEFA Cup ( 30 April )

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Cup ( 30 April ) Followed you this time.. pretty good stuff.. Why didn't you bet on the Ukrainian game too?

    Werder Bremen 0-1 Hamburg HT
    Trochowski 28
    Bookings: Tziolis 41 Bookings: Aogo 26 Da Silva 35
    o.gif
    cccccc.gif
    o.gif
    o.gif:cow Job's a good'un!!! 1st card 28 mins or before! and a no lose card count index standing currently at 3 cards = 30 points! :ok

    UEFA Cup ( 30 April )

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Cup ( 30 April )

    Dynamo Kiev v Shakhtar Donetsk - Over 45 Points @ 5/6 5/10 Lets see if JK's statistics bets work for Konrad Plautz UEFA Cup Matches yellow yellow-red red 2008/2009 1 - - - 2007/2008 1 5 - - 2006/2007 1 3 - 1 2004/2005 2 5 - - 2003/2004 2 6 - - Good luck :hope
    Only 2 cards.. I did get lucky with the result and Under tipped at OLGB username TuttiFooty

    UEFA Cup ( 30 April )

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Cup ( 30 April ) Dynamo Kiev v Shakhtar Donetsk - Over 45 Points @ 5/6 5/10 Lets see if JK's statistics bets work for Konrad Plautz UEFA Cup Matches yellow yellow-red red 2008/2009 1 - - - 2007/2008 1 5 - - 2006/2007 1 3 - 1 2004/2005 2 5 - - 2003/2004 2 6 - - Good luck :hope

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    :cow Profit - However that could have been so much better. Nasri @17.00 escaped an early card in the 3rd minute for kicking out and got a talking to off the Referee! Then Tevez gets booked for going for the ball with the keeper on a 50/50, if he hadn't got that booking the NO Card bet @23.00 would have been in! :ok Predictions: No Red Card To Be Shown @1.25 Paddypower :cow Card Index 40 points or less @1.83 Paddypower :cow Yellow Card=10 Points Red Card=25 points. 1st Booking 30 mins or after @1.91 Paddypower :cow 1st Carded Player: Nasri @17.00 William Hill Gibbs @13.00 William Hill Diaby @13.00 William Hill Song @13.00 William Hill No Cards @23.00 William Hill
    Well done :clap

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Watching parts of last nights game.. I suppose the fact that Barca weren't able to score means they're not as good as I thought they were.. notanow anyhow further injuries and title race will leave them at even a greater disadvantage going to the 2nd leg.. Still Chelsea can pull off a tactical checkmate but it could be a 0:0 again..

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Wednesday 29 April 2009 Ligue 1 Stade Rennais[7/16] v Bordeaux[3/16] (20:00CET) 3.00 3.10 2.77 Tough game to call when the Ah is -0.25 on the guests that 'must' win to keep chase of leaders Marseille. Rennais are undefeated at home and also 'must' to chase 5th and UEFA berth, have a large number of draws at home and have not drawn in 3 matches, a sequence of results they're unable to surpass. double chance X2 @ 1.4

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    This is the same Chelsea team that scored 7 goals over two legs against Liverpool, a team with one of the best defensive records in the champions league during the past few seasons, its amazing how quickly people forget. This proves that Chelsea can play attacking football when it is required whilst tonight proved they can set their stall out to defend when its the best option. These two ties prove Chelsea have more than one string to their bow which is the sign of potential trophy winners. Frankly your comments smack of sour grapes, you got it wrong take it like a man instead of throwing your toys out of the pram.
    Yea.. Sorry about my earlier comments.. I suppose they were a bit out of line.. There are plenty of matches I can remember Milan played the same tactics.. :eek Still, let the football win

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Right on for all those who went for the draw:clap I really didnt see it though it was right in fromnt of our eyes.. And thank you for trying to warn us Jimmy I suppose there's still some to learn for us that went with Barca.. No need to take it so personal.. I love the CL.. and love tactics.. I just hoped to see more football less tactics :) What a great night (even though I lost.. more to come tomorrow:drums

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