Monty Hall
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Posts posted by Monty Hall
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Re: Lack of draws methodology So far the system is proving itself to provide profit in the long run. there were 2 draws from 13 matches so I have decided to add double chance home/away bets at 1.25 to 1.33 odds on matches I bet on and add a few more leagues. I thought of adding minor leagues but the English championship has no teams with no draws. TuttiFooty.Com does not provide stats for the French Ligue1 and Netherlands Eredivise so I feel naked doing the LOD methodology without TuttiFooty.Coms' Consistencies tables. :( But the success means I will be depositing funds to more bookies and continue to use the system. The lesson learned from this week is that While I use the LOD methodology to create a match list to choose from. The secondary proccess of choosing the winner is the heart of the proccess and it is hard work. Further lessons are to avoid being carried away by major successes i.e. going for Bilbao vs Real Madrid after the Liverpool win. Last but not least is that a great deal of expertise and experience is needed to know when to use the dry statistics and when to use intuition in identifying the winners. Good luck, An exiting new week is ahead, I can't wait :cheers
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Re: Lack of draws methodology West Ham - West Brom Under 2.5 10/10 @ 1.83 I placed a bet on WH at the beginning of the last week but the shifting odds made me look at the stats once again. Hammers have yet to keep two clean sheets in a trot at Upton Park this season and Baggies have not failed to score more than twice in a trot on the road. This match is much more important to the guests than the hosts who started dreaming about Europe. An upset is possible but I'd rather bet on a low score then find out. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats & Vids
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Re: Lack of draws methodology So far: KSC @ 2.30 10/10 Lost -10.0 Wolfsburg (-0.5) 10/10 @ 2.25 Won +22.5 Liverpool 10/10 @ 4.75 Won + 47.5 Athletic Bilbao 10/10 @ 3.5 Lost -10.0 Lecce (+0.5) 10/10 @ 2.38 Lost -10.0 Atalanta 10/10 @ 2.25 Won +22.5 Milan 10/10 @ 2.10 Won +21.0 Racing 10/10 @ 1.80 Won +18.0 Gijon 10/10 @ 2.86 Won +28.6 Barcelona (-1) 10/10 @ 1.88 Won +18.8 West Ham 10/10 @ 1.77 Lost -10.0 West Ham Under (2.5) 10/10 @ 1.83 Won +18.3 Final 120 pts invested 77.2 pts clean profit And only 1 draw at Espanyol - Mallorca Edit: Barcelona match added Edit 2: West Ham match added
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Racing - Numancia Pick: Racing Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 1.80 The importance of the match to Racing and Numancias' defensive record. Racing have only been able to put together 2 wins at the Sardinero but they have too many draws @ home 2-7-3. They are in good enough form and this match is a must win. They only failed to score vs Real Madrid and La Coru?±a while Numancia have no clean sheets. Their victory over Valencia though surprising was during a difficult time for Valencia. This hopefully should be different. Atl Madrid - Villareal Pick: Atl Madrid Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 2.10 The main reason is the LOD (Lack of draws). I have gome with the stats here. Although Atl?©tico have been eliminated and Villarreal has gone Atl?©ti have only failed onve to score at the Vicente Calder??n and Villareal have only kept a clean sheet twice. This match will be more important for the host declining position while Villareal are in CL 4th. Gijon - Deportivo Pick: Gijon Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 2.86 The main reasons are the LOD (lack of draws) Sportings' form and goals vs Osasuna and the fact that La Coru?±a have yet to complete two away win in a trot this season. Sporting have the worst home defensive record but they are in great form. La Coru?±a are not that brilliant on the road failing to score in half their games. They did beat Santander but there were big holes in the defence and Racing could have scored more. They way Sporting beat Osasuna made it hard for me to decide against them and looking at Depors' away record I've concluded to back the home team this time. Good luck and god bless
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Siena - Milan Milan 10/10 @ 2.10 The main reasons are the great odds. Milans' win over Atalanta and the news that Kaka will return. Also the fact that Inzaghi scored a hat trick is a clear sign to me. In the beginning of the season Pippo couldn't hit the net if he wanted to. Siena's home record is not that impressive. Good luck and god bless
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Palermo - Lecce Lecce (+0.5) 10/10 @ 2.38 The main reason is the ridiculous handicap (-0.75) for Palermo. The lack of draws and the 'Unwritten Rules' of a new manager. Palermo have score in and conceded in 10/13 matches at the Renzo Barbera. They would like to win after 2 consecutive defeats at home to Juve and the Sicilian derby vs Catania. Last week they beat broken Fiore but the evident holes in the back weren't utilized by unlucky Fiore. Statistically the Giallorossi (Lecce) are suppose to lose this with a poor away record of conceding in 12/13 and only scoring in 6/12 but the 'Unwritten Rules' say that a new manager brings new fortunes and after looking at the previews I think Lecce have a strong enough side to get a result. After seeing that handicap its clear to me numbers are wrong. Good luck and god bless The 'Unwritten Rules' thread in PL: Atalanta - Torino Atalanta 10/10 @ 2.25 The main reason is the LOD (lack of draws). Atalantas' strength at the Azzurri and Torinos' defensive record with only one clean sheet. I was considering going for Torino yesterday because the LOD says either home or away and Atalantas' loses to Chievo (at home) and Milan. But Toro are not a team that wins games this season but rather draws them. Aatlanta is playing without their main strikers Floccari, Doni and Vieri and Del Neri hold a soft spot for his former club Chievo. Atalanta are a power house at home and if they score its hard to see Toro get a result here. Good luck and god bless
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Pick: Athletic Bilbao 10/10 @ 3.5 The stats speak for Madrid but it's hard for me to back Real because of the CL exit.
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Man United - Liverpool Thestatsclearly show MU as favorites But I pick away win here because I have never seen Liverpool play as god as they did vs Real Madrid. After seeing that kind of display its hard for me to back the home win even though MU have the best league record and are in top form as well. But they were lucky on a few occasions in the CL not to concede. Pick: Liverpool 10/10 @ 4.75 (Back)
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Wolfsburg - Schalke Pick: Wolfsburg (-0.5) 10/10 [url=http://www.sports-punter.com/link.php?p=10bet]@ 2.25 (Back) I saw many of the Bundesilga experts go for HW Going though the precedure myself I found NO reason to back the guests. Seeing the Video shows Schalke to be a strong team but Wolfsburg are superior and aim higher this seaon.
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Re: Lack of draws methodology In the Man United - Liverpool game I'm seriously considering going for away win. Though Pool + 0.5 at almost evens seem pretty safe. Next I looked at Atalanta vs Torino. Because the home team be missing 3 of its top strikers: C. Doni, Flocari and Vieri. They also lost to lowly Chievo last time home. The h2h record favors Toro and looking at the video previews there seems a possibility of an away win. Looking at Toros' matches they have way too many draws, reading further Del Neri holds a soft spot for his former club Chievo. So I wait to see the actual lineups before making a decision. Karlsruhe - Bielefeld Going through the records KSC have the worst home record in the league, Bielefeld are almost just as bad away. I bet on them not to lose last time out at Köln and they were very lucky to get away with a draw. Only after looking at the videos a came to a decision to go for a home win because I was impressed by KSCs' game vs Wolfsburg. The stats dont bak it but I dont think Bielefeld will be able to withstand such a confident side with only 2 clean sheets on the road. So KSC @ 2.30 10/10 and W. Ham @ 1.77 10/10 are my bets so far.
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Re: CL - Wednesday 11th of March Roma - Arsenal Pick: Roma (-1.5) Stake: 10 Odds: 4.70 Gamebookers [url=http://tuttifooty-com.blogabet.com/]My reasoning is based on stats and yesterdays results. In 3 CL home games Roma has always scored, conceded in 2 and 2 went overs and no draws. In Arsenals 3 away matches they scored twice, always conceded, one went overs and one draw. Last meetings: 2008/2009 Round of 16 Arsenal FC - AS Roma 1:0 2002/2003 Group. B Arsenal FC - AS Roma 1:1 2002/2003 Group. B AS Roma - Arsenal FC 1:3 The away match had 4 goal (Henry hatrick). Tonights ref is Mejuto Gonz??lez rememberd from Arsenals' defeat at CSKA Moskow at the 2006 season. Good luck and god bless
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Re: CL - Wednesday 11th of March Man Utd - Inter Pick: Man Utd (-1) Stake: 10 Odds: 2.32 10bet TBH I originally thought Inter would go through. I played with some kids in my neighborhood and they told me Man United will go through. Ive seen a lot of Inter and don??â„¢t personally like them this season ever since Mourinho came in. They are aggressive and they are winners when it comes to their local but for me there's no honor in their game and it would be terrible if they go through on Man Us' expense. That is not reason enough to bet, I bet on Inter to win the 1st leg, The fact they did not win IS reason enough to back Man U. Feelings aside, I also think Inter will lose because they are not as good as Manchester United. Good luck and god bless
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Re: CL - Tuesday 10th of March I had 2 10/10 bets on 0-0 and 1-1 But nooooo it had to be 2-2 Bliat
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Re: Lack of draws methodology Hi I didn't mean to take the mickey I have another thread with website name in title. So I wasnt aware of regulations.. No need to get mad a private message would have been a more appropriate way to say that.
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Re: CL - Tuesday 10th of March Juventus v Chelsea Pick: Draw 10/10 William Hill @ 3.20 (Back) I picked Chelsea to beat Juve in the 1st leg and I pick a draw in this 2nd leg. I can't really use stats to explain Champions league picks because they're based on intuition. I can't see either side winning this. I made up my mind about a draw yesterday and I'm going for correct score 1-1 and 0-0. Liverpool - Real Madrid Pick: Over 2.5 10/10 Betfair @ 2.54 (Back) I know I'm probably sending too many bets tonight but I have to go with what I believe in, and I believe Real Madrid will score tonight and I just can't see how this match will remain Unders as I think it wont in a draw either. Odds are big and the 1st match surprised everyone, why shouldn't the second do so as well Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats TuttiVideo Previews
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Lack of draws A system based on consistency of results - Lack of draws by TuttiFooty.Com
I'm not much for system and I'd like to think of this more as a methodology (two actually). This system is neither easy nor simple but it can increase success rates and yield a great deal. I found Lack of draws consistency to be much more profitable since I am betting on either home or away wins. I don't claim this is any easier than a normal bet but the odds we go for are mostly quite higher and if we only win 50% we still profit. I am not able to calculate how the success probability percentage increases the same way I cannot explain the 'Monty Hall Problem'. In the 'Monty Hall' show the guest needs to guess behind which door the car is. He faces 3 doors behind them are 2 goats and a car. So we say the probability is split 33% for each door. Once the guest chooses a door (not open yet) the host opens a different door that hides goat. You and me would think that the probability is now 50% for each door. But the 'Monty Hall Problem' says that the probability is still 33% for the original door the guest chose. Yet if he now switches to the remaining door he increases his chances by 33% e.g. he now has 66% probability to win the car. If you understand that then maybe you can calculate the 'Lack of draws' methodology. In general I think of 3 different systems or mythologies of picking bets. 1- Intuition based Used with teams you watch every week, Cup ties, Uefa etc. 2- Stats or logic based Consistencies, H2h 3- Based on illogical and colloquial reasoning Such as the 'Unwritten rules' Here I'm referring to a stats based methodology. When we think about consistency logic we usually think about teams that are consistent at home or in their current form. Lack of draws consistency searches for teams that rarely draw, teams that tend to either lose or win at home or away (or both). Once we've identified those teams we make a list of their matches. The hard part now begins of choosing the winner. This system makes the assumption that the end result is either home or away wins. There are 2 disadvantages to that: 1- The game may actually result in a draw such as In a derby game or against a draw specialist. 2- We may pick the wrong team. In order to overcome these difficulties we have to recognize those teams that rarely draw and bet on them not to while keeping in mind they will draw a few times out of 19 games per season. Once we have a list of matches we then go though the procedure of looking at the stats with the advantage of only picking one of two options: Home or Away. We have to consider the impossible when reviewing the data. Away wins can have very high odds. I have made a list for the 14-16 of March, 2009 - You can review TuttiFooty.Com Consistency tables here Day Home (Draws/Games) Away (Draws/Games) 1 x 2 Premier League Saturday Man United(1/13) Liverpool(4/14) 1.9 3.3 4.1 Monday West Ham(1/14) West Brom(2/14) 1.7 3.4 4.8 La Liga Sunday Sporting Gijon(0/12) La Coruña(3/13) 2.7 3.1 2.5 Sunday Atlético Madrid(1/12) Villarreal(6/13) 2.1 3.3 3.4 Sunday Santander(7/12) Numancia(0/13) 1.8 3.3 4.5 Sunday AlmerÃa(4/13) Barcelona(1/12) 5 3.5 1.7 Sunday Espanyol(4/12) Mallorca(1/13) 2.2 3.2 3.2 Sunday Athletic Bilbao(2/13) Real Madrid(1/12s) 3.8 3.3 1.9 Bundeliga Friday Wolfsburg(1/11) Schalke(4/12) 2.1 3.2 3.3 Saturday Karlsruher(1/11) Bielefeld(6/12) 2.2 3.2 3.1 Sunday Hamburg(1/11) Cottbus(4/12) 1.4 4 7.9 Serie A Sunday Palermo(0/13) Lecce(4/13) 1.7 3.3 4.7 Sunday Atalanta(1/14) Torino(6/13) 2.1 3.1 3.5 Once we have a list we have to look up the league tables, scoring, conceding, h2h records, videos previews and latest news for each match. Quickly going through it there are a few favorites that pop into view: Man United and West Ham in the Premier League. La Coruña, Barcelona and Real Madrid from La Liga. Hamburg, Wolfsburg vs Schalke - General manager Andreas Mueller fired from Schalke so an away win might be a good bet in the Bundesliga. Palermo and Atalanta in the Serie A. Now, since the Man U - Pool will be a high profile game with title rivalry involved, the probability of a draw increases. So I'll start with the West Ham vs West Brom game. 1st thing I do is look at the league table: Pos. Team Pld Pts W D L GF GA Dif Overall 7 West Ham 28 39 11 6 11 34 34 0 20 West Bromwich 28 22 6 4 18 25 54 -29 Home 9 West Ham 14 22 7 1 6 19 17 2 17 West Bromwich 14 17 5 2 7 19 27 -8 Away 8 West Ham 14 17 4 5 5 15 17 -2 19 West Bromwich 14 5 1 2 11 6 27 -21 From the league table its clear W. Broms' chances for survival are slim yet not impossible. They have the 2nd worst away defense and attack in the league. W.Ham seems a typical mid table. 2nd look at the consistency tables Team Gms Sc Cn Gd GF GA Over Home West Ham 14 9 11 1 19 17 7 West Bromwich 14 11 11 2 19 27 11 Away West Ham 14 9 10 5 15 17 6 West Bromwich 14 5 12 2 6 27 7 Here we can see W. Ham not as consistent at home as we might have wished while W. Broms' has been conceding consistently with only 2 clean sheets Key Gms = Games Played Sc = Games scores (at least once) Cn = Games conceded (at least once) Gd = Number of draws Gf = Amount of goals scored Ga = Amount of goals conceded Over = Number of overs 3rd. Lets look at where those clean sheets occurred. Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier Arsenal 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier Bolton 0:0 West Bromwich Sat Sep 27 08 English Premier Middlesbrough 0:1 West Bromwich Sat Oct 18 08 English Premier Manchester United 4:0 West Bromwich Tue Oct 28 08 English Premier Newcastle 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier Liverpool 3:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 22 08 English Premier Stoke 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 29 08 English Premier Wigan 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Dec 13 08 English Premier Sunderland 4:0 West Bromwich Fri Dec 26 08 English Premier Chelsea 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Jan 10 09 English Premier Aston Villa 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Jan 31 09 English Premier Hull 2:2 West Bromwich Sun Feb 22 09 English Premier Fulham 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Feb 28 09 English Premier Everton 2:0 West Bromwich Both occurred at the beginning of the season, this bet is beginning to look good with no goals in the last 2 games. Lets look at W. Hams' matches: Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Wigan Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier West Ham 4:1 Blackburn Sat Sep 20 08 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Newcastle Sun Oct 5 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Bolton Sun Oct 26 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Arsenal Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Everton Sat Nov 15 08 English Premier West Ham 0:0 Portsmouth Mon Dec 8 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Tottenham Sat Dec 20 08 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Aston Villa Sun Dec 28 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Stoke Sun Jan 18 09 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Fulham Wed Jan 28 09 English Premier West Ham 2:0 Hull Sun Feb 8 09 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Manchester United Sun Mar 1 09 English Premier West Ham 1:0 Manchester City The results are not spectacular but looking at the opponents this looks like it could be a good bet. 4th the H2H: 08 Sep 13 English Premier West Bromwich 3:2 West Ham 0 0 0 06 May 1 English Premier West Bromwich 0:1 West Ham 2.25 3.29 2.89 05 Nov 5 English Premier West Ham 1:0 West Bromwich 1.83 3.29 4.33 03 Feb 23 English Premier West Bromwich 1:2 West Ham 2.39 3.2 2.7 02 Sep 11 English Premier West Ham 0:1 West Bromwich 1.6 3.45 5.5 Not a draw in sight. 5th and final step is checking the Video Previews of both teams last matches and go through the news. Once I've reached my conclusion I rift through the forums to see other punters views but not before I have done my own work. I am a bit worried mainly because of W.Hams' scoring and conceding are not as strong as I wish them to be, but there absolutely no indication to me that W. Ham would not win it even without Cole. So I pick Home win. Not that impressive maybe but it serves as an example. I will pick some more games to show the strength of this system. And now on to the next game..
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Re: CL - Wednesday 25 February League and Cups are different, always have been. I'm not sure why.. Maybe its the amount of attention CL games get, the presiege, the money and Clubs Objectives have all something to do with it.. Dont you agree? Cheers
why should this be different if their leaking goals at home to standard sides in spain surely a champions league side shud be able to exploit tht even more?! -
Re: CL - Wednesday 25 February Tip Detail
Tip Detail Sport Football (Euro Cups) Event Villareal - Panathinaikos Selection Villareal (-1) (Asian Handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 25/02/2009 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.17 (Back) Reasoning Looking at the video previews of both teams there seems to be a clear difference in the level at which both teams play. I cant imagine Villarreal not taking the points here. They have been leaking goals at home in the league but this should be different. Good luck and god bless -
Re: CL - Wednesday 25 February
Tip Detail Sport Football (Euro Cups) Event Chelsea - Juventus Selection Chelsea (-0.5) (Asian Handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 25/02/2009 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.81 (Back) Reasoning My intuition tells me Chelsea will win this game. I saw a lot of Juve these two seasons and four years ago Juve are a fine team but its no match for Chelsea's humongous budget fighting on all three fronts, something has to give. Chelsea are rejuvenated with a new manager and a fresh spirit and Juve have to thank Gigi Bufon for being where they are now because they have NOT been solid at the back at all and Chelsea have been consistent in scoring at Stamford Bridge this season. I also took Didier Drogba striking first. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats & Vids -
Re: Champions League ( 24. dec ´08 ) Wrong thread..
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Re: CL - Tuesday 24 February Lyon - Barcelona Today, 19:45 Soccer - Champions L Pick: Over 2.5 Result: Pending Stake: 10/10 Odds: 2.01 Bookmaker: Pinnacle vCash: Yes Posted: Yesterday, 08:14 Very nice odds for Overs IMO. Both teams have no worries in their local. Lyon are 6 points clear of PSG and Barca are 7 points clear of Real Madrid. Lyon coach Claude Puel has labeled Barcelona "the best team in the world" according to the newspapers. When that happens you know Lyon don't feel obligated to do more than their best to try and go to the next round on Barca's expense. Barca plays to win every game even though it hasn't been going as smoothly lately. Previous results: 07 Nov 27 Champions League Lyon 2:2 Barcelona 07 Sep 19 Champions League Barcelona 3:0 Lyon 01 Oct 23 Champions League Lyon 2:3 Barcelona 01 Oct 10 Champions League Barcelona 2:0 Lyon _______________________________________________ Inter - Man Utd Today, 07:45 Soccer - Champions L Pick: Under 2 Result: Pending Stake: 10/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: Pinnacle vCash: Yes Posted: Feb 16, 2009, 09:51 Two of the best defenses in Europe meet once again. The defending champions have conceded only 6 goals in their league travels while the host had conceded only 8. Inter CL matches had 1 goal scored in each while Man Utd. had scored 3 past Aalborg defenses. Mourinhos' men must get a result before the return match at Old Trafford. My personal feeling is that it will be Man Utd. who goes through as revenge for the loss to Porto. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats
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Re: Champions League - Matchday 6 - Wednesday 10th December Steaua - Fiorentina Today, 20:45 Soccer - Champions L Pick: Under 2.5 Result: Pending Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.80 Bookmaker: Nordicbet vCash: Yes A match for the protocol only. Fiorentina have been relegated to the UEFA Cup and we haven't seen anything from Steaua this season. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats
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Re: Champions League: Group Stage- Matchday 5 Wednesday 5th November Liverpool - Atlético Madrid Over 2.5 Atléticos' defence is her strong part, but her attack is. This is a very prestigious match and can determine 1st place. Atlético Madrid Results 08 Oct 29 Copa Del Rey Orihuela 0:1 Atlético Madrid 08 Oct 26 La Liga Villarreal 4:4 Atlético Madrid 08 Oct 4 La Liga Barcelona 6:1 Atlético Madrid 08 Sep 24 La Liga Getafe 1:2 Atlético Madrid 08 Sep 16 Champions League PSV 0:3 Atlético Madrid 08 Sep 14 La Liga Valladolid 2:1 Atlético Madrid Atléti has conceded is every away match and most matches ended up Overs Similar story with Liverpool: Liverpool Results 08 Oct 29 English Premier Liverpool 1:0 Portsmouth 08 Oct 18 English Premier Liverpool 3:2 Wigan 08 Oct 1 Champions League Liverpool 3:1 PSV 08 Sep 23 Carling Cup Liverpool 2:1 Crewe 08 Sep 20 English Premier Liverpool 0:0 Stoke 08 Sep 13 English Premier Liverpool 2:1 Manchester United Atléti might come play for a result, this is a mistake because theyre not built for that
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Re: Champions League: Group Stage- Matchday 5 Wednesday 5th November An interesting bet is Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ 2.6 :loon Chelsea has in my mind the best defence in Europe at the mo. Romes' situation is.. complicated to say the least, Chelsea need a win to insure 1st place (almost) and Rome is a sexy place to look good. http://tuttifooty.com/Match.aspx?HomeTeam=Roma&AwayTeam=Chelsea+ Good luck
Lack of draws methodology
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Re: Lack of draws methodology