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Monty Hall

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Posts posted by Monty Hall

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    Got to take your hat off to the bettingzone tipster who put the 0-0 up at 12/1. I suppose thats why he gets paid to offer his opinion whilst we are mere amateurs.
    There were other tipsters who tipped for 0:0 or 1:1.. they dont get paid To some up this was really confusing.. I kept hoping Barca would score but the "tactics" which is a word used for cowardly display won over the creative beautiful football.. I hate to think Chelsea would get anywhere with this and wherever they go I hope they lose.. I lost my bet tonight but I have no complaints whatsoever to barca, they played their football.. luckily for Guus and his "men" the referee let them get away with these aggressive fouls.. they wont have Stark to save them at Stamford bridge. I'm not a Barca fan but hope Chelsea lose.. Nice evening altogether from barca and good for them.. down with Chelsea and their "tactics".. :ok

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) What a ridiculous half.. I can't believe Chelsea would stoop to this level?! Absloutly praying to take the game to Stamford Bridge.. I have a sneaky sensation we'll see the same game there.. And soory to cry but the UEFA official Stark has some nerve to start speaches at this level.. let the game role you w**ker:spank

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    No matter what you personally feel you should always put your money on the value option. For Example Team A are 1/2 to win a match and Team B are 6/1. You will most probably feel Team B has no chance of winning and so will probably not consider backing them. In reality the true odds of each team winning are for example 4/6 and 9/2. Simply put Team A at 4/6 will win the match 60 times out of 100 Team B at 9/2 will win the match 18 times out of 100. You back Team A at 4/7 with £100 making £57 profit everytime they win, which is 60 times. 60 X £57 = £3420. The 40 times they fail to win you lose in total £4000. So after backing the apparant good things 100 times you have lost £580. You Back Team B at 6/1 with £100 making £600 profit everytime they win, which is 18 times. 18 x £600 = £10,800. The 82 times they fail to win you lose in total £8,200. So after backing the team you personally feel will not win the match 100 times you have made a profit of £2,600. It is simply a case of mathematics, rather than a choice based on personal opinion.
    Interesting and maybe true, but think of all the money you would save on betting on team B only when they reach a peak of form and team A are on a low.. it's hard to accept it as a general rule..

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Some interesting stats: Chelsea have only failed to score or concede in 1 outing:

    Wed Oct 1 08 Champions LeagueCFR Cluj0:0 Chelsea
    They scored 7 goals on the road (3 of which were against Liverpool), less than Porto (8), Bayern (10), Lyon (10), Liverpool (11), Barca (14) and Arsenal (14).. Barca have never failed to score at home, 15 goals, they're the competition top scoring team together with Bayern, after them theres Roma(12), Chelsea(12), Liverpool(10), Villarreal(9), Arsenal(9) and Man Utd(9). Chelsea scored 4 goals vs Liverpool. Barca have kept 1 clean sheet vs Bayern München in the 4:0. They conceded 7 goals less only than Basel(8), Roma(10) and Sporting(10). Chances are we'll see some goals..

    UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) The questions are can Chelsea stop Barca? quick answer is no. can Barca stop Chelsea? quick answer is Probably a lot better than Liverpool Chelsea changed it's tactics under Hiddink for the 1st time using it's assets and going all out forward vs Liverpool but Liverpool has major problems in it's defense. Barca are no longer just a team with tons of talent, they are organized, tactically prepared and well aware of Chelsea's threat. I think Chelsea will be lucky to score an away goal. 1-0 or 2-0 for me. Barca -0.75 Barca to score 1st Barca to win to nil Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    LOD Week #5

    Wednesday 29 April 2009 Ligue 1 Stade Rennais[7/16] v Bordeaux[3/16] (20:00CET) 3.00 3.10 2.77 Friday 1 May 2009 Bundesliga Bochum[4/15] v Hannover 96[2/14] (20:30CET) 2.20 3.60 3.55 Saturday 2 May 2009 Bundesliga Arminia[6/14] v Stuttgart[3/14] (15:30CET) 4.40 3.70 1.92 Bayern München[4/15] v M'Gladbach[3/14] (15:30CET) 1.32 6.40 13.00 Karlsruhe[3/14] v Energie Cottbus[4/15] (15:30CET) 2.15 3.55 3.90 Schalke 04[3/14] v Bayer Leverkusen[2/14] (15:30CET) 1.86 3.70 4.80 Wolfsburg[1/14] v Hoffenheim[5/14] (15:30CET) 1.57 4.30 6.80 Premier League Portsmouth[3/17] v Arsenal[6/17] (16:00CET) 3.85 3.55 2.12 Manchester City[0/17] v Blackburn[4/17] (16:00CET) 2.10 3.50 4.10 Wigan[4/16] v Bolton[2/17] (16:00CET) 2.20 3.40 3.85 Ligue 1 Monaco[3/17] v Auxerre[1/16] (19:00CET) 2.10 3.15 4.30 Saint-Étienne[2/16] v Nancy[2/16] (19:00CET) 1.99 3.35 4.50 Valenciennes[4/16] v Lyon[2/16] (19:00CET) 5.10 3.50 1.95 Serie A Inter[5/16] v Lazio[1/16] (20:30CET) 1.56 4.20 7.20 Primera División Numancia[3/16] v Málaga[3/16] (20:00CET) 2.97 3.55 2.46 Real Madrid[2/17] v Barcelona[2/16] (20:00CET) 2.71 3.75 2.60 Villarreal[3/16] v Sevilla[4/16] (22:00CET) 2.50 3.50 2.98 Sunday 3 May 2009 Serie A Catania[1/16] v Milan[5/16] (15:00CET) 6.30 3.90 1.67 Fiorentina[2/16] v Torino[6/16] (15:00CET) 1.47 4.40 9.00 Palermo[0/16] v Cagliari[4/16] (15:00CET) 2.10 3.45 4.10 Bundesliga Hamburger[1/14] SV v Hertha Berlin[2/14] (17:00CET) 1.97 3.60 4.30 Ligue 1 Nantes[7/16] v Le Havre[3/16] (17:00CET) 1.62 3.90 7.20 PSG[1/16] v Stade Rennais[8/16] (17:00CET) 1.84 3.55 5.50 Premier League Sunderland[3/17] v Everton[6/17] (17:00CET) 2.78 3.30 2.94 Primera División Gijon[0/16] v Athletic Bilbao[5/16] (17:00CET) 2.79 3.50 2.68 Racing Santander[7/16] v Almería[3/16] (17:00CET) 2.41 3.25 3.45 Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Made some terrible decisions this week.. Oh well, I know I always go for long shots after doing good. I suppose it would've been better to avoid certain games but I tried to bet on as many as possible. It's also 1st experience with leagues I know nothing about like the Eredivise (Willem II & Ajax draws) and Ligue 1, and most of the mistakes came from a league I'm not very good at: the Bundesliga. Leverkusen, München, Wolfsburg & M'Gladbach(Drew) I think when there's a list of over 20 matches it's worth adding double chance Home/Away bets.

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology 10 Real Madrid 1.3 +3.0 5 Real Madrid (-1.5) -5.0 10 Manchester Utd 1.27 +2.7 10 Barcelona 1.40 +4.0 10 Gijon 3.09 -10.0 10 Mallorca 2.02 +10.0 10 Leverkusen 10/1.40 -10.0 5 Leverkusen -1.25 5/1.85 -5.0 10 München 10/1.68 -10.0 5 München -1 5/2.09 -5.0 10 Dortmund 2.50 +15.5 10 Hannover 2.00 +10.0 10 Bolton 3.30 -10.0 10 Almería 1.70 +7.0 10 Valencia (0.5) Ah 10/2.09 +10.9 5 Valencia (0) Ah 5/3.00 0.0 10 Ajax 1.8 -10.0 5 Willem II 5/7.62 -5.0 10 Milan 1.54 +5.4 3 Siena 3/5.4 -3.0 10 Wolfsburg 1.68 -10.0 10 M'Gladbach 1.91 -10.0 10 Atlético -1.25 1.81 +8.1 10 Sevilla 10/2.5 -10.0 5 Sevilla -1 5/3.45 -5.0 ____________________________ 4/25 Games Drew 213.0 Units 5Push + 76.6 - 108.0 = -26.4 Loss :cry

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Added Primera División Round #32 Matches Friday 24 April 2009 Bundesliga Hoffenheim[4/14] v Hertha Berlin[2/13] (20:30CET) 2.62 3.50 2.90 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen[4/14] v Karlsruhe[1/14] (15:30CET) 1.40 5.10 9.40 Bayern München[2/13] v Schalke 04[4/14] (15:30CET) 1.68 4.10 5.90 Dortmund[9/14] v Hamburger SV[2/14] (15:30CET) 2.50 3.50 3.15 Hannover 96[6/14] v Köln[1/14] (15:30CET) 2.00 3.55 4.20 Premier League Bolton[2/16] v Aston Villa[0/16] (16:00CET) 3.15 3.45 2.48 West Ham[2/16] v Chelsea[2/16] (16:00CET) 6.50 3.95 1.69 Serie A Fiorentina[2/15] v Roma[4/16] (20:30CET) 2.45 3.35 3.25 Primera División Almería[4/16] v Numancia[1/16] (20:00CET) 1.70 4.00 6.50 Valencia[3/16] v Barcelona[1/15] (22:00CET) 4.10 3.85 2.00 Sunday 26 April 2009 Eredivisie Ajax[2/15] v AZ Alkmaar[3/15] (14:30CET) 2.10 3.40 3.10 Groningen[0/15] v Willem II[4/15] (14:30CET) 1.55 3.50 6.10 Serie A Milan[2/16] v Palermo[4/16] (15:00CET) 1.54 4.20 7.60 Torino[3/16] v Siena[2/16] (15:00CET) 1.96 3.25 4.90 Bundesliga Energie Cottbus[1/13] v Wolfsburg[5/14] (17:00CET) 5.60 4.00 1.68 M'Gladbach[2/14] v Arminia[6/14] (17:00CET) 2.08 3.50 3.95 Ligue 1 Le Havre[0/16] v Grenoble[6/16] (17:00CET) 3.10 3.10 2.61 Nancy[7/16] v Nantes[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.10 4.10 Primera División Athletic Bilbao[2/16] v Racing Santander[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.50 3.60 Sevilla[2/16] v Real Madrid[1/15] (19:00CET) 2.75 3.45 2.88 Atlético[1/15] v Gijon[0/16] (21:00CET) 1.44 5.00 11.00 If you have a selection please post reasons Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Primera División Tuesday 21 April 2009 Real Madrid[1/15] v Getafe[6/15] (21:00CET) 1.31 5.90 12.50 I have to go with Real here.. though odds been droppin' all day long on the draw (can't imagine why) I take Real Madrid win round 1.3 ish And the (-1.5) Ah even though Real has a string of 1 nil's lately. Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology

    LOD #5

    Premier League Wednesday 22 April 2009 Manchester Utd[1/15] v Portsmouth[7/15] (21:00CET) 1.27 6.40 17.5 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bolton[2/16] v Aston Villa[0/16] (16:00CET) 3.15 3.45 2.48 West Ham[2/16] v Chelsea[2/16] (16:00CET) 6.50 3.95 1.69 Bundesliga Friday 24 April 2009 Hoffenheim[4/14] v Hertha Berlin[2/13] (20:30CET) 2.62 3.50 2.90 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bayer Leverkusen[4/14] v Karlsruhe[1/14] (15:30CET) 1.40 5.10 9.40 Bayern München[2/13] v Schalke 04[4/14] (15:30CET) 1.68 4.10 5.90 Dortmund[9/14] v Hamburger SV[2/14] (15:30CET) 2.50 3.50 3.15 Hannover 96[6/14] v Köln[1/14] (15:30CET) 2.00 3.55 4.20 Sunday 26 April 2009 Energie Cottbus[1/13] v Wolfsburg[5/14] (17:00CET) 5.60 4.00 1.68 M'Gladbach[2/14] v Arminia[6/14] (17:00CET) 2.08 3.50 3.95 Serie A Saturday 25 April 2009 Fiorentina[2/15] v Roma[4/16] (20:30CET) 2.45 3.35 3.25 Sunday 26 April 2009 Milan[2/16] v Palermo[4/16] (15:00CET) 1.54 4.20 7.60 Torino[3/16] v Siena[2/16] (15:00CET) 1.96 3.25 4.90 Primera División Tuesday 21 April 2009 Real Madrid[1/15] v Getafe[6/15] (21:00CET) 1.31 5.90 12.50 Wednesday 22 April 2009 Barcelona[2/16] v Sevilla[4/15] (22:00CET) 1.40 5.30 10.00 Thursday 23 April 2009 Gijon[0/15] v Espanyol[6/16] (20:00CET) 2.84 3.45 2.68 Mallorca[6/15] v Valladolid[1/15] (22:00CET) 2.16 3.55 3.75 Eredivisie Sunday 26 April 2009 Ajax[2/15] v AZ Alkmaar[3/15] (14:30CET) 2.10 3.40 3.10 Groningen[0/15] v Willem II[4/15] (14:30CET) 1.55 3.50 6.10 Ligue 1 Sunday 26 April 2009 Le Havre[0/16] v Grenoble[6/16] (17:00CET) 3.10 3.10 2.61 Nancy[7/16] v Nantes[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.10 4.10

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Week #4 summary: 21 games 5 Draws 210.0 Units 113.65 Won 100.0 Lost 13.65 Profit Not very good.. I chose many games that were risky like Hoffenheim(were bound to draw again), Genoa (Lazio after beating Roma), Villareal (Never won at Valladolid),Willem II and Caen which I know nothing about. But even with an atrocious strike rate still no lose.

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Sunday matches proved to be very very difficult to decide on so I've givven up on many of them manly because of the H2H records: Man City 1.76 Villareal 2.32 Espayol 2.2 Hannover 8.1 Catania 2.48 Bologna 4.95 PSG (-1) 1.5 Willem II 2.32 Milan (-1) 1.5 Good luck

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Portsmouth 2.18 +11.8 La Coruña (taken at 3.8) +28.0 Atlético Madrid (-1, -1.5) Ah 1.75 +7.5 Barcelona (-0.5, -1) Ah 1.74 +3.75 Málaga 2.03 -10.0 Real Madrid 1.62 +6.2 Hoffenheim 2.46 -10.0 Wolfsburg 2.10 +11.0 Genoa 1.81 -10.0 Juventus 2.7 -10.0 Caen 2.28 -10.0 AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) Ah 1.86 -10.0 So far 3/12 drew invested: 120 Units Lost: -60.0 Units Clean Profit = 68.25 - 60.0 = 8.25

    Lack of draws methodology

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Lack of draws methodology Right, Here are my picks for Saturday's games: Portsmouth 2.18 La Coruña 3.55 Atlético Madrid (-1, -1.5) Ah 1.75 Barcelona (-0.5, -1) Ah 1.74 Málaga 2.03 Real Madrid 1.62 Hoffenheim 2.46 Wolfsburg 2.10 Genoa 1.81 Juventus 2.7 Caen 2.28 AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) Ah 1.86 Good luck

    UEFA Cup QF return leg 16/4

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Cup QF return leg 16/4 Dynamo Kiev - Paris SG Selection: Dynamo Kiev (-0.5) (Asian Handicap) 10/10 Bet365 @ 1.83 (Back) PSG failed to score in the 1st leg. This time it's going to be even harder. D. Kiev have never failed to score at home in Europe this season. They sit quietly on top of the table 15 points from Shakhtar 6 rounds till the end. PSG have started the season in poor form but still have a chance of making it back to CL preliminary rounds if they can pass 3rd place Bordeaux 3 points ahead. Until the 1st leg PSG have won all it's matches vs Ukrainian opposition. This time it seems they'll come up short. PSG Probable Starting XI: Landreau; Ceara, Makonda, Camara, Traore; Clement, Chantome, Rothen, Sessegnon; Luyindula, Hoarau Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com

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