FixedOdds

Hi,
Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+.
What do you think?
Market Time Odds Max Notes Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 13:00 1.21 1.35   Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 23:55 1.23     Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 19:00 1.17 1.18   Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 18:45 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 12:01 1.17     A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:59 1.24     Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:58 1.27 2.26   Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 13:02 1.20 1.33   Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 11:30 1.24     Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:00 1.20     Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:30 1.20     Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 14:00 1.16     Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:30 1.44     Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:32 1.20     Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 18:48 1.44     ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 1.44     Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 15:31 1.24     Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 11:31 1.24     Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:01 1.44     Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.44     QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.29     Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 19:32 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 19/04/2022 19:01 1.64     Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 19:00 1.17     Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 22:02 1.24     Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 17:02 1.24 1.35   Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 19:16 1.32    

Thanks @harry_rag
I can say quite confidently that taking SPs is a losing strategy. I've analysed a fair amount of data over the years in Excel and found long winning streaks - I had one last year of 42 bets that I actually placed - but the few inevitable losses are a killer. 
Yes, the evens experiment would be interesting and finding the optimum price.
I've got 1.17 on Brentford v Tot.....just need a goal now.

Oh, sorry I didn't realise. Noted.
Lost on Leicester v Villa.
Got these lined up if they match.
PSG v Lens
St Et. v Monaco
Barca v Rayo
Brentford v Tot

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17 and won on Leipzig v Berlin @ 1.25.

Yes, this might have to go very deep before 1.17 is reached.
You've been unlucky I think, you were very close to getting matched but you didn't lose
I'm recording Norwich v Newcastle atm. I've gone for 1.25 since the sp was 1.09 and although Newcastle are the in-form team, I'm not convinced by either.
Moving up slowly...
 
 

Hi @Torque @harry_rag
I don’t disagree. What I’m thinking is…
Man City v Watford right now is 1.02 (as you’d expect). If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner. The odds of 1.02 are saying that there has to be goals in this game. I’m saying that knowing 92% of matches have a goal then there’s a good chance of a favorable result. I might get 1.17 which doesn’t change the fact that the consensus was this is a 1.02 market. Of course the longer the game goes on the less chance for a goal, but I know with good confidence that 92% of games a goal is scored i.e. it’s with hanging on in. There are so many late goals too these days.
 
The proof will be the 1000 games. I’ll keep posting results until I’m broke!

Hi @Torque @harry_rag
I don’t disagree. What I’m thinking is…
Man City v Watford right now is 1.02 (as you’d expect). If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner. The odds of 1.02 are saying that there has to be goals in this game. I’m saying that knowing 92% of matches have a goal then there’s a good chance of a favorable result. I might get 1.17 which doesn’t change the fact that the consensus was this is a 1.02 market. Of course the longer the game goes on the less chance for a goal, but I know with good confidence that 92% of games a goal is scored i.e. it’s with hanging on in. There are so many late goals too these days.
 
The proof will be the 1000 games. I’ll keep posting results until I’m broke!

Hi,
Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+.
What do you think?
Market Time Odds Max Notes Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 13:00 1.21 1.35   Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 23:55 1.23     Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 19:00 1.17 1.18   Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 18:45 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 12:01 1.17     A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:59 1.24     Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:58 1.27 2.26   Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 13:02 1.20 1.33   Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 11:30 1.24     Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:00 1.20     Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:30 1.20     Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 14:00 1.16     Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:30 1.44     Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:32 1.20     Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 18:48 1.44     ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 1.44     Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 15:31 1.24     Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 11:31 1.24     Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:01 1.44     Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.44     QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.29     Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 19:32 0.00   I lost, don't have odds Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 19/04/2022 19:01 1.64     Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 19:00 1.17     Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 22:02 1.24     Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 17:02 1.24 1.35   Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 19:16 1.32