Dougal
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Posts posted by Dougal
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Re: VOLVO TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS 10-13 JAN Just one bet for me and going for a complete outsider... Michael Hoey 1pt e/w @ 125/1 Skybet (4 places) Hoey’s odds this week reflect the pretty miserable end he had to 2012 although he has won three times in the last two years on tour. It’s the last of those victories that interested me this week as there are some similarities between Golf du Palais Royal in Morocco where he won and Durban Country Club. Both are seaside courses with undulating fairways and small greens that are tricky to hit, both are short yardage par 72 and both play pretty tough when the wind blows. Golf du Palais Royal had slow running greens when Hoey won and the same is predicted for this week. Obviously Hoey is a huge outsider but there's no cut this week and I'll take the chance that he can find some of the form that has given him four tour wins.
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Re: Sony Open > 10th Jan - 13th Jan Best of luck Aidy, apparently there is a flu bug going round the players in Hawaii so fingers crossed none of our selections get struck down. Mark Wilson 2pts win @ 70.00 Betfair As Crouch said last week the first ten weeks of the season are the time to back Wilson as that's when all his five tour wins have come. An encouraging 11th in Maui he closed with a three under par round to send him to the Sony Open in good heart. This course suits Wilson's game as he showed when winning the title two years ago, it's a shotmakers course with little need for length off the tee and he is a proven winner on bermuda greens. Michael Thompson 2pts win @ 150.00 Betfair Thompson finished 6th here last year which was one of three top tens in the season, his best finish coming at the US Open where he was hugely impressive in finishing second. Olympic also had bermuda greens and like Waialae it was a course that placed an emphasis on leaving the ball in the right place on hard to hit greens. There's also obvious similarities between Waialae and Harbour Town and Thompson had an encouraging 20th place there. He finished last season with 13th at the JT Shriners and then 10th place in the McGladrey, a tournament where he struck the ball like a dream but putted like a drain.
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Re: Hyundai Tournament of Champions - 4-7 Jan Weather forecast for Saturday looks even worse and it's not that great for Sunday or Monday either!
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Re: Hyundai Tournament of Champions - 4-7 Jan Morning all and Happy New Year! Very difficult one to predict this as it's impossible to know who comes in tournament ready to go and who has spent Christmas eating and lazing about (Poulter, judging by his comments on twitter). Carl Pettersson 2pts win @ 25.00 Betfair The big Swede has undoubtedly spent the break bolstering his ample frame but he seems to like Hawaii and could be set for a good run this week. This is his fifth appearance here with a best placed finish of 4th in 2011, he also has an excellent record at the Sony Open so the windy conditions in Maui should be no problem. Johnson Wagner 1pt e/w (4 places) @ 80/1 Bet365 (now best priced 66/1 - general) I missed the 100/1 that was available on Wagner on Monday but am happy with the price I got. Third appearance here and with top ten finishes (10th and 9th) on his previous visits the course is clearly one that suits him. Having won the Sony Open in Hawaii last year a visit to the islands is always going to bring back good memories for the moustachioed one (and people with handsome mustaches always do well in Hawaii, just look at Magnum PI!) Wagner has had enough success on tour to feel comfortable in this company and will hopefully go well at a decent price.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Matthew Baldwin - 1st round leader 0.75 pts e/w @ 250/1 BetFred (5 places) * Baldwin is from down the round in Southport and presumably has played Lytham a fair few times before, he has shot in the 60s in six of his last ten opening rounds so he has a habit of coming out of the blocks quickly. Off in one of the first groups as well so will get to use the greens when they are at their most pristine, closed with a morale boosting 67 in Scotland so should be full of confidence.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd According to the official Open website Clark is playing, though it may be worth noting that his best Open finish is 23rd. Interesting statistic, of the last 30 Open champions only one of them played on the PGA tour the week before the Open, clearly those playing in the John Deere are not helping themselves.
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 3, Week 2 Scotland Thomas Bjorn 33/1 Branden Grace 50/1 Mikko Ilonen 150/1
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Re: The Scottish Open Good luck chaps! Not much course form to go on as it's only the second year here and they only managed three rounds last year. Mikko Ilonen 1pt e/w @ 150/1 Bet365 (6 places) A two time winner on tour the Finn has a liking for links golf, he won the Amateur Championship at Hoylake and as a teenager used to fly over to Britain to hone his skills on the links. He finished 9th in the Open back in 2001 and had a nice 10th place at the Irish Open a couple of weeks ago, his best finish of the season was 3rd place at the Nordea Masters last month so his form is decent and he can go well at a nice price here. Thomas Bjorn 2pts win @ 70.0 Betfair *(price matched on Monday lunchtime before the bookies priced up the market, now about 44.0) I was going to back the Dane for the Irish Open, until I realised that he wasn’t playing which rather scuppered my plan (lesson learned, look at the entry list before doing research as it saves me from having a face-palm moment later). Five top 10 finishes at the Open show how much he likes links golf and three wins last year show what a top player he still is. He’s finished 2nd*and 8th*in his last two regular tour appearances and has all the experience and skills to cope with whatever the weather can throw at him this week. Also has two wins in Scotland. Absolutely chuffed to get matched at this price, would have been delighted to get 50.0. Branden Grace 2 pts win @ 65.0 Betfair Pretty much what I said for the Irish Open, had a decent outing at the French Open but couldn't sustain a challenge on Sunday. Hopefully this will be third time lucky with me backing him.
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 3, Week 1 France N Colsaerts 40/1 L Gagli 125/1 US Rory Sabattini 66/1
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Re: Open De France Nicolas Colsaerts 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1 Bet365 This is undoubtedly the best year of Colsaerts career, seven top ten finishes and a victory in the World Matchplay in Spain have been hugely impressive. Along with LeeWestwood, Colsaerts is probably the best driver of the ball in Europe, he hits it enormous distances which reduce most holes to a short iron and this gives him a huge advantage. Although he missed the cut in Ireland after shooting an opening round 67 that can probably be put down to a bad day at the office. Finished 11th here last year and if he can continue to drive as well as he has been then he should be in contention again. I wasn’t expecting to see anything over 33-1 on Colsaerts in a regular tour event so I think he’s great value here. Branden Grace 2pts win @ 85.00 Betfair I backed Grace last week and he missed the cut, the result of that is that he is twice the price this week and the field isn't any stronger. He didn't play particularly badly last week but never got going and despite a two under second round he didn't make the weekend. Three wins this year and he's played well on tough courses at Wentworth and Fancourt and there's no reason why he can't have another decent showing here Lorenzo Gagli 1pt e/w @ 175/1 Bet365 (this was the price when it first came out, was cut to 125/1 by the evening) Best finish of the season for Gagli at the Irish Open of 24th in what has been a tough second year on tour, he played superbly in thefirst two rounds in Ireland before faltering to a 76 in the third but he came back nicely with a two under par 70 to close the tournament. Gagli had five top 5 finishes last year and his straight hitting should stand him in good stead on a course where water features on a lot of holes, he’s only played here once before but had an encouraging 11th place on his debut. Last season Gagli tended to string together good performances and hopefully his performanc in Ireland will kick start this season.
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Re: PL Golf Competition ~ Phase 2 Week 12 AT&T Nick Watney 40/1 Rory Sabbatini 70/1 Kevin Chappel 110/1
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Re: Irish Open June 28th - July 1st Branden Grace 3pts win @ 38 Betfair Three wins in 2012 for the South African, the last two of those have come on inland links style courses at Fancourt and in China. In both those events he beat good quality fields so he will have no fears of his fellow competitors here. I seem to remember the weather at Fancourt was pretty dire so he should be able to handle whatever the Northern Irish weather can through at him this week. Clearly he likes the challenges of links golf and I see no reason why he can’t win a remarkable fourth tournament of the season.
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Re: At&t National June 28th - July 1st Good luck Aidy, I quite liked Lucas Glover as well but given his form this year the price wasn't tempting enough for me. He'll probably win now, just to spite me! Ben Curtis @ 75 Betfair Before missing the cut at the Memorial, Curtis was on a great streak of results 1st, T13, T5, T2 and after a few weeks off to recharge his batteries he could come on strong again here. He’s been driving the ball great all year, hitting a lot of GIR and tops the stats in strokes gained putting. Add in a ton of birdies and it’s easy to see why the American has been undergoing such a resurgence after his career had looked to be on the skids. Congressional is reported to be playing hard and fast this week which should make up for Curtis lack of length off the tee and after playing well at the Players and Quail Hollow he’s shown he can produce on the tough courses. Rory Sabbatini e/w @ 80/1 Stan James The South African is in a good run of form having finished T2 and T18 in his last two starts, he never really got going well enough to contend at the Travellers but having shot in the 60s for his last three rounds he should arrive in good heart. He T30 in the US Open here last year and finished T24 back in the AT&T back in 2007 so he knows how to get it around here, if he can get his misfiring putter to behave this week then he reward the investment at a juicy price.
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 2, Week 11 EuroLee Slattery 175/1Hennie Otto 250/1USJohn Rollins 66/1
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Nice one Aidy, well done! You are on for the grand slam now
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Three 1st round leader bets, 0.5pts e/w paying 5 places Blake Adams 200/1 Bet365 - shot in the 60s in the first round 6 of his last 9 events including the Players so can do it on tough courses DA Points 175/1 Bet365 - likes California having won the Pebble Beach ProAm, opened with a 66 at Quail Hollow a few weeks ago and players who do well there often go well at the US Open. Also tree lined and bentgrass greens Charlie Wi 125/1 Paddypower - In the top 10 in 1st round scoring average, ranks even higher as an afternoon starter so his tee time here bodes well. Course should suit his accurate game so could come out flying but unlikely to sustain it. Good luck chaps
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 2, Week 10 Matt Kuchar 30/1 Zach Johnson 45/1 DA Points 225/1
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Three more for me Zach Johnson 1pt e/w @ 55/1 Bet365 Since finishing 2nd at Harbour Town ZJ has finished t6, 2nd, 1st, MC. His driving and putting have been sensational all year and if he can maintain the crisp iron play he's shown over the past few weeks he should contend. Not having the length off the tee ZJ can only really contend up on the old style courses and Olympic should be a good match. Matteo Manassero 1pt e/w @ 150/1 Bet365 It surprised me that Manassero is still only 19 as he seems to have been around for ages now and he always displays maturity and course management way beyond his years. With 5 top ten finishes it has been a decent year although I don't think he's been at his best, at the top of his game he would have converted a win from one of those promising positions. Ball striking is the key for Manassero and he is very good at grinding it out when things are tough. He came through qualifying at Walton Heath to secure his place here and has the game to plot his way to a decent finish. Anders Hansen 1pt e/w @ 300/1 Bet365 I always like to have a rank outsider and who better than the doughty Dane. A two time champion at Wentworth he obviously likes tree lined courses and that plays to his accurate game. Hansen is a plodder, he's never going to excite or wow anyone but he can grind out the pars in tough conditions all day long. Had a career best major finish of 3rd place at the US PGA last year and he could be a lively outsider here.
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Jim Furyk 1pt e/w @ 50/1 Bet365 Since losing out in a playoff at the Transitions (another shotmakers course) Furyk has been remarkably consistent not finishing lower than 26th. He lies 3rd on tour in scoring average and 3rd in driving accuracy, he's also t7 in approaches from under 200 yards so his accuracy is up there at the top. If my theory about Olympic suiting players who have good record at Harbour Town holds out then Furyk could be in business as a former winner there. For once Furyk's lack of length won't count against him and his experience and ability to shape the ball could see him go close. Matt Kuchar 2pts win @ 34 Betfair Like Furyk, Kuchar is having an ultra consistent year, his last nine starts read t4, t5, t8, t10, t3, t44, t13, 1st, t15, t26 and the hugely impressive sequence includes 3rd place at the Masters and his Players victory. It's hard not to see Kuchar in contention this week because he is just striking the ball so well and his win will have given him a massive lift. Actually played here as an amateur in 1998 and was right in contention at halfway before fading to a highly creditable 14th place finish. Francesco Molinari 1pt e/w @ 100/1 Coral Fairways and greens are the cornerstone of the Italians game and he hits them with metronomic regularity. 9 top 20 finishes in 12 starts this year show how consistent he's been and he won the Open de Espana on a very tough golf course where he really had to grind it out. I think his putting has improved lot in the last year and while he's never going to be great it doesn't hamper him as much as it used to. As a winner of a WGC event he's proved he can beat an elite field and can go well here. He played well at Wentworth the other week which is also a tough tree lined course with bentgrass greens and I think this is a generous price.
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June I was looking at some pictures of the Olympic course and there were a couple of striking things, the fairways are very narrow and the greens look tiny. I think if you're not hitting the fairway it's going to be incredibly difficult to hold the green with approach shots given how fast the greens will be. I'll be fascinated to see how many times, if at all, Tiger takes driver, I suspect he might not use it. It really does look different to a typical US Open course and brings the dibbly dobblers right into it, I think previous US Open form will count for little. One course it did remind me of was Harbour Town, that is also tight tree lined fairways and small greens where there is a need to place your tee shots in the right place. Obviously Harbour Town doesn't have the thick rough but it places the same emphasis on shot making and being able to move the ball both ways and leave yourself in the right part of the green. Personally I've always found the US Open the least interesting major, watching players slog around a 7500 yd course trying to grind out pars is pretty tedious so I'm glad it's a different type of test this year.
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Re: PGA Tour 2012 - St Jude Classic 7-10 June There are 23 players within 4 shots of the lead going into the final round so it should be an entertaining afternoon, with some notorious chokers near the top to add to the entertainment value. I'm going to have a punt on Freddie Jacobson at 50.0 on Betfair, shot 66 yesterday to pull himself within 3 of the lead and right into contention. The Swede has a decent record here and he is a much better putter than most of his rivals here, if he can give himself enough chances with the putter then he should go close.
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Greens are bentgrass http://www.gcsaa.org/Newsroom/News-Releases/2012/June/Finlen-has-Olympic-fine-tuned-for-world-s-best.aspx Now, are there any tree lined courses with bentgrass greens used on tour as that might provide a useful pointer.
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Re: The US Open 14th of June - 17th of June Interesting fact about Mark Wilson, he's won 5 times on the PGA Tour and all five wins have been in the first ten weeks of the season. Nice price now though on a course that should suit him.
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 2, Week 9 Euro Joel Sjoholm 90/1 Richard Green 90/1 Richard S Johnson 100/1
Phoenix Open PGA Tour ~ 31st Jan - 3rd Feb
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted
Re: Phoenix Open PGA Tour ~ 31st Jan - 3rd Feb Tommy Gainey 1pt e/w @ 175/1 Betfair fixed odds This tournament looks wide open and I think you could easily make a good case for about 20 players. Two gloves looked like he was going to be a wire to wire winner here two years ago but faded badly over the last four holes to finish 8th. He's a lot more experienced now though and has his maiden victory after winning the McGladrey Classic at the end of last season. Missed his last couple of cuts (but missing out on the extra time hanging around at Torrey Pines might not be a bad thing) and worth a dabble a big price.