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Dices

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    Reduction factor

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Reduction factor Found this:

    Rule 4 will not apply if the horse which was withdrawn was at odds of above about 14-1. Many bookmakers do not apply rule 4 above odds of 9-1 (10.0). Rule 4 will only affect you if your horse wins the race. If it loses the bet behaves normally. The size of the rule 4 deduction depends on the odds of the horse which was withdrawn at the time of its withdrawal. The following scale is copied from Sean Graham's T&Cs: **** Late Withdrawals Where a horse is withdrawn before coming under Starter's orders, or is officially deemed by the Starter to have taken no part in the race, stakes will be returned on the withdrawn horse and winning bets will be subject to deductions in accordance with Tattersalls' Rule 4©. The rate of deduction will be based on the following scale:- Current price at withdrawal Deductions in the pound. 3/10 or lower £0.75 3/0 to 2/5 £0.70 2/5 to 8/15 £0.65 8/15 to 8/13 £0.60 8/13 to 4/5 £0.55 4/5 to 20/21 £0.50 20/21 to 6/5 £0.45 6/5 to 6/4 £0.40 6/4 to 7/4 £0.35 7/4 to 9/4 £0.30 9/4 to 3/1 £0.25 3/1 to 4/1 £0.20 4/1 to 11/2 £0.15 11/2 to 9/1 £0.10 9/1 to 14/1 £0.05 15/1 and higher no deductions made In the event of two or more horses being withdrawn before coming under Starter's orders, the total deductions shall not exceed £0.75 in £. Should a horse be withdrawn and a new market formed, then any bets laid at 'Show' prices prior to the new show will be subject to the above deductions. In the event of a further withdrawal after the market has been re-formed, bets placed at 'Show' prices in the original market will be subject to a further deduction based on the price of the withdrawn horse in the original market. Bets placed in the new market will be subject to a deduction based on the current price. **** In fact Sean Graham do not deduct the 5% rule 4. Many bookmakers leave their early price odds unchanged after a withdrawal and apply rule 4. Once the market starts to move in ernest nearer the "off" the prices will have been adjusted and rule 4 will probably not apply. (I would not advise attempting to bet within 1/2 an hour of the start of a race unless you are very experienced.) Betfair do not use the same scale, but give each horse a "deduction factor". If there is a non-runner the time of withdrawal and the deduction factor are listed under the "rules" tab on the right hand side. The market is suspended on the announcement of a non-runner and re-formed straight away. Any bets placed after this are not subject to a deduction. DANGER - if you find a race which appears to contain more than one arb, check very carefully that you are not comparing bookies prices before rule 4 with the re-formed market at Betfair. Matching under these circumstances can be VERY expensive if your horse wins. Some bookmakers (Sean Graham is one) warn you that a rule 4 deduction may apply. If so, it doesn't necessarily mean you can't bet on the race. First check what the odds of the withdrawn horse were. If it was say 20 then you can safely ignore it. How to calculate the revised odds after rule 4 Rule 4 applies only to the winnings, not to the stake. Suppose your horse is quoted at 4.0 and the rule 4 deduction is 20%. The revised odds are: 4 minus 1 (to remove the stake) = 3 minus 20% of 3 (0.6) = 2.4 plus 1 (to return it to proper decimal odds including the stake) = 3.4. Therefore if you found an arb at the bookies which was 4.0/2.8 it would still be an arb, but 4.0/3.4 would not. The difficulty with rule 4 is that as the odds of the withdrawn horse are likely to be different at Betfair than at the bookies there can be quite a difference in the size of the deduction. It is likely to be smaller at Betfair because the odds are likely to be longer, so your lay risk will shrink less than your winnings. This can play havoc with the matching process and cost you money. However, in practise I find this effect is rare as your horse has to win first. The danger of betting on different markets as outlined above is potentially much more costly.
    and this:
    , Betfair apply the same percentages deductions to their bets. However it should be noted that they are applied to the higher (digital odds price) so in actual price terms the deductions are larger. For example.

    You have bet £100 on a horse at 8-1 and a withdrawn horse causes a 25p rule 4. Your horse wins.

    At a bookmaker your 8/1 will be reduced to 6/1 (25% of 8) and your return will be £600 plus your stake

    At Betfair your 8/1 (9.0 digital odds) will be reduced to 5.75 to 1 ( 25% of 9.0 ) and your return would be £575 plus your stake (less commission)

    In reality, it maybe that the odds you managed to match at on Betfair were higher than the 8/1 you would have got at a bookmaker and therefore you may still be advantaged to bet with Betfair, but you should be aware of the difference in the deduction rule.

    Form Based Ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Form Based Ratings The most important thing when trialing such 'systems' is the good 'result keeping'. The 'result checking routine' has to be ready from the early beggining so only small adjustments will be needed. It has to be very detailed. May i ask what do you use for ' coding software ' as you say,since it is not excel?

    Form Based Ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Form Based Ratings I copy-paste from elseware: The sort of factors a ratings plan should allow for might include:

    • Place form i.e. the places achieved in the last "x" number of races

    • Course Winners

    • Distance Winners

    • Distance of the race

    • Speed Figures

    • Prize Money

    • Class of Race

    • Class of Course

    • Handicap or Non-Handicap

    • Trainer

    • Jockey

    • Going

    • Weight Carried

    • Odds

    • Length of time since a win

    • The competition i.e. how good are the other horses

    • Etc

    And after the creation of the ratings, the big question: Copy-paste from the same source: Horse Ratings - Will Horses Obey The RatingsThe short answer of course is no!! Most horses simply go out on the course, and do the best they can for the jockey, who happens to be riding them. The trainer is sat on the sidelines watching, like a manager in football, he or she cannot influence anything in the race now, all the preparation has been done. All the trainer can do is sit and watch :unsure:unsure:unsure IMO there is great potential in the idea, form ratings may spot value bets. Its in my mind for a few weeks but the work involved and excel knowledgr is huge, so it is a future plan. If i can be of any help, please let me know.

    Form Based Ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Form Based Ratings Just an idea: Combined with class (don't know how) calc the race's price - award. The result of a 6k race will be twice importance as the result from 3k race. A 2k race will be the 2/5 of a 5k race , etc. Edit: The same can be done with distance. A 6f race is 6/12 = half important compared with a 12f race.

    Form Based Ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Form Based Ratings Good luck mate, it seems a lot of work is waiting you. After a quick look: For examble: Bangor 24-Jul 19:30 Turn Card (IRE) has a rating of 100 (fav) way above others, wich looks wrong calc for a horse with only 1 place in his life. Depraux (IRE) at the same race with a rating of zero deserves some points for his 4 places. Did i miss something, am i doing something wrong? Getting the data from racecards and applying a rating is something i really like but involves a lot of work and excel knowledge, maybe after a year a try. Robert99 looks that he has already done it , results?

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay I have the feelling that it will go well and will be profitable at the end. Good luck Kanga. Today's selection was very good. The race distance was 18f and at this dist Green Mile sucked. 4 races with 0900 form dont lead to 4.5 odds. So it was a value bet. The true is that he was good at weeker races and smaller dist (10-12f). My question is how did you came up with the "fair" odds of 7.6 ? How did you calculate the 7.6 (practical) ? Did you convert any rating into odds? How? Even if you studied form you somehow convert it into odds - chances. Can you give us any clue? Thanks.

    Courses question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Courses question

    AW tracks and the different surfaces can be a bit confusing but its not as bad as it used to be, Lingfield used to use Equitrack for the surface but found it wasnt very consistant so changed it to Polytrack. Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton all use Polytrack as will Great Leighs if ever it gets finished. This surface is like running on Gd/Firm ground, the Ploytrack produces less of a kick back and suits horses that can run at a good fast even pace, because of the fast pace they need to get the distance well too. The only difference in the tracks is how sharp the bends are and obviously that Kemton is RH where all the other three are LH. Southwell is the slowest surface by far and replicates races run on soft ground, quite deep and produces a lot of kick back and horses run wide to avoid this, the surface is Fibresand and needs a lot of maintenance and has been known to freeze. Lingfield and Kempton seem to attract the best horses with many newmarket trainers now running horses for experience before going onto better things, form can be relied on more when switching to turf but be careful of the handicappers, they can appear to be well handicapped but dont always live up to it. Southwell and Wolverhampton are best known for banded type races and typically moderate animals that are not seen so much on the turf and if they are its usually in sellers or claimers, personally dont bet at either of these, a bit like giant greyhound racing in my book but i know some that like them because the same horses run often and they get to know the form, each to their own.
    As i see, I'm lacking a lot of information. Can form from Polytrack be counted as like G/F going? Can form from Fibersand be counted as like Soft going? Is there any track with Equitrack , can be counted as ??? Any other types of AW going? As mentioed "The only difference in the tracks is how sharp the bends are and obviously that Kemton is RH where all the other three are LH" , what is RH , LH ? Does anyone of you has been splited the previus form to flat,straights tracks,uphills etc like BillyHills mentions somewhere and this form to be counted to make the daily selections? I understand that nothing is certain but what is the feeling, the look of this approach, can someone say "i have the feelling that this will be good?" Thanks everyone for your help.

    Courses question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Courses question For the time i'm stunding form, so any imformation will be examined in time, thanks for your help. Grouping the AW going - courses accoprding to the specific type of going - i saw something like SD somewhere ?- is a very good idea. As long you dont separate the types TOO much to have large samples, lets say like i'm doing at turf and count the firm very similar to good to firm , or even good , to gain larger sample. Where can i find more specific information as mentioned? Thanks.

    Courses question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Mowgli77 wrote at 'Ratings and Queries - Suggestions please' : " I also think it is important to take Lingfield, Southwell, Kempton and Wolverhampton as totally different form. There are horses that are Lingfield specialists as an example but can't win on another all weather track. This will be important in July at the race day." The idea is that the form from lets lay Lingfield is not valid at Kempton because they have differrent characteristics. Many of you know very well the different courses, so supposing they have the same going how can we "group" the differrent courses and count the form from these courses as valid for the next race at similar course? Uphill, downhills ..... what are the factors that make differrent courses "similar" ? Any possible list of these similar courses according to own oppinion?

    Simple Laying System Trial

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Simple Laying System Trial First of all I don’t have recorded data to support what I will say.

    Let’s make a couple of assumptions.

    1) Daftpegasus’ ‘Simple Laying System’is profitable with the given recorded lay prices. This means that these odds are smaller than the true-fair prices of these horses (smaller because they are lay prices).

    2) Betfair prices are fair. The market is generally fair which I think is acceptable. OK but what time of day these prices are fair? I will assume that they are before the off and I have the feeling that most of you will agree.

    If we combine the two above we come to the conclusion that these lay prices will drift and become fair prices before the off, so the best time for laying is the morning.

    Of course it is not so easy and others things are also required. For example liquidity is needed to establish a good starting (low) price , system selections will no longer be selections if the price drifts a lot – no value (the example aldric gave at his previous post) etc.

    Daftpegasus, will ‘Daniel Tommas’ have been a selection at odds of 13.0?

    Just some thoughts ……. and …….comments please?

    Dices

    RP card (and sportinglife) question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Sorry if this is not the right place for the question. At today's cards (Racingpost and Sportinglife), at Nott 3:40 the fav Megaton has previus form of 246/5- and has run last time 407 days ago. At least this is what is shown at the main card for this meeting (Nott 3:40) If you click at Megaton you go at its previus races where you can see that last race was 23 May 07 (13 days ago) and has many previus 1st places (thats why is fav). I dont get it. :eek Same thing with Sportinglife. :eek Are they using the same data base?

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