Dices
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Posts posted by Dices
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Re: Fairly SAFE Lay system (at IN PLAY) 15 GBP for a month ( this is half price !) for one click betting software with graphs is VERY expensive. There are totally free programs that do the same or very cheaper than this one.
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Re: Return of the beaten favourites Can you make the green color darker?
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Re: Fairly SAFE Lay system (at IN PLAY) Wellcome jimbo. Can you give us the names of these 12 horses you played today? I want to understand better these '15 secs and not fav' rules by checking the real in play odds. Thanks mate
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Re: Return of the beaten favourites A quick summary: Win bets Days : 9 S/R : 11/72 15% P/L : +22 pts Yield: 31% Place bets Days : 9 S/R : 32/72 44% P/L : +17 pts Yield: 23% Looks very promising Alexander, keep posting them.
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Re: Some help with data http://www.football-data.co.uk/ Already in excel format and ... free
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Re: Winning at ROULETTE...
I have the feeling that there are available in net records of real roulette spins. If someone find them can he post lets say 20 blocks of 51 numbers ? (randomly chosen) If this happens fender will you comment them? Will you apply your strategy on them?I have given you the strategy and even shown it working against a set of numbers posted -
Re: Winning at ROULETTE...
And casinos haven't closed your account?I have been winning with this strategy for about 14 months and its now become my main source of income for the last 4. -
Re: Trendsman's Speed Ratings Good luck mate, speed ratings ... the dark art
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Any resources / books about UK pace handicaping? Anyone knows what is available?
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Re: Staking system help :) In order for a staking plan to help you with your system you have to know few things about your performance like No of bets, roi, winning and loosing odds,etc and all these for different "bands" of odds, 0.5-1, 1-1.5, 1,5-2 etc. If you have such data and your sample is large enough you can alter the stake at different odds bands and boost your profit in the long run. A general rule is if a system is profitable at level stakes it can be "boosted".
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Re: Lengths beaten question
The latest chance as found here: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/post-182-010409.html
Well who knows ... :unsureI can only find the original change here http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/media/releaseDetail.asp?item=085716 -
Re: Lengths beaten question The latest chance as found here: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/post-182-010409.html
Between 1997 and early in 2008, the official conversion in place was five lengths-per-second on the Flat and 4 over jumps, regardless of the fact that horses will finish at vastly different speeds under different circumstances. The following conversions have been in place since 15th June 2008 : * Good or quicker turf, and polytrack at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton = 6 lengths per second * From good (good to soft in places) to Good to soft (Soft in places), and polytrack at Great Leighs = 5.5 lengths per second * Soft (good to soft in places) and softer, and fibresand at Southwell = 5 lengths per second. -
Re: True odds and optimal staking plan
A MUCH better approach than Kelly's. Thanks Kanga
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Re: Past - Current class relation question
Thanks triloClass 1 to 5 = A to E Class 6 = F & G Class 7 = H -
Current Race Classes take value from 1-7 (7 ratings) with class 1 the "best" race and class 7 the "worst". Few years ago there was another "rating" system giving values of A to H at class (8 ratings). If i want to compare a past race with a new one what is the relation of past rating with the new one? Can we say that an A class race is equal to class 1 etc? 8ratings compared with 7ratings?
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Re: True odds and optimal staking plan
((odds x estimation) - 1) / (odds - 1) = (result) x 100 ThanksKelly staking? -
Hi everyone.
Lets suppose that we have found a way of correctly calculating the true odds – chance of a selection to come true, ie the true chance of a horse to win is found 25% (3/1 or 4.0 odds) and is available at BF at odds of 6/1 (7.0). In a second example the true chance is 12.5% (7/1 or 8.0) and is available at odds of 20/1 (21.0). Calculating the theoretical profit for each of these two cases we get:- 6x0.25 = 1.5 points profit per bet
- 20x0.125 = 2.5 points profit per bet
Obviously the second bet offers more “value†but it has smaller strike rate so it suffers from longer loosing runs.
My question: How can we implement in our staking plan the true chance of every bet so we will have a “smoother†behavior of our system? Is there a mathematical formula for calculating the stake that depends on the % chance? Number of bets at every case will be important for the staking plan and the way will be by increasing the stake at the first case and decreasing it at the second case but is there a specific formula? Any ideas, thoughts? -
Re: Lengths beaten question So, individual finishing times are recorded but in final results they are changed into "beaten lengths" to become more "attractive",more "simple"? Am i right? Trilobite where did you find the "way of calculation" ? Any links?
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Re: Lengths beaten question An example: for a horse in a race after 25 Feb 2008 at AW fibresand, for every 5 lengths behind the winners i add 1 sec. If it is behind 31/4 lengths i add 3.75/5*1=0.75sec. His time will be: winners time + 0.75 Am i correct?
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Does anyone knows how many feet does a length has ? (the way officials results calculate them). So if the second horse was 3 length behind the first how many feet is this? Is it calculated the same way regardless of race age ( lets say 3y only,4+,etc.),regardless of the race class etc?
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Re: VHM . value horse method Not sure but i think it has to do with the fact that bookmakes calculate the place odds with a standard way (back odds divided by 4, by 5 etc).Its not a "free" market as betfair is. So in races with 5 runners (?) (and when fav is low odds?) the place odds they give is greater than those in betfair.So there is an optimum stake for the same race - same horse that you place at betfair and at bookmakers that makes you 100% (?) money in the long run. I'm talking about e/w bets with bookmakers. Sorry dont know more
Return of the beaten favourites
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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