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Dices

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    Going for the place

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi everyone.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

    The purpose of this test is mainly to force me to regularly track the results of some systems. So I‘ll be posting the selections of three backing and one laying system –all at the place market-. Selection criteria are the usual, form, previous records, age etc.

    Staking plan for the backing systems will be level betting but for the laying system it will be a Fibonacci variation -1,2,3,5 pts per bet-.

    So,

    Backing systems1 & 2

    1 pt per bet

    Back the place market

    Place odds must be higher than 1,2

    Backing system 3

    1 pt per bet

    Back the place market

    Place odds must be higher than 1,2 AND lower than 3,5

    Laying system

    1 pt liability per bet (first bet)

    Lay the place market

    Place odds must be higher than 1,5 AND lower than 3,0

    Fibonacci series staking plan -1,2,3,5-

    After a loosing bet the second bet will have liability of 2 pts, after the second loosing bet the liability will be 3 pts (3rd bet) and after the 3rd loosing bet the liability will be 5 pts (4th bet). Next bet will always have 1 pt liability.

    This is going to be fun.

    I’ll try to get place prices from a site but in the cases I wont I’ll calculate place odds from SP (+10%) the way bookies calculate them.

    I’ll try for regular posting but no promises.

    Let’s give it at least two - three weeks testing.

    Dices

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    I know that small changes can effect your ROI negatively and I am not offering fixing of course. It works well so do not touch it. I am only asking what do you think about effect of away matches of home team and home matches of away team. I am working on a computer program for long time and trying to calculate OU probs of all matches so I am asking only opinions about that question to everyone who are interested in Over/Under betting. Thanks for answer.
    I dont have stats to support this but i think it will affect it negativly. Basically i believe it wil decrease ROI but it will increace No of bets, so why dont you back test it creating something in excel? Tell us your findings

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    1st CRITERIA - The league in which the game is being played MUST have 60% or more of all games played so far finish UNDER 2.5. 2nd CRITERIA - H2H meetings .Ideally there should be a current history between teams of at least 3 matches. Less than 3 can be looked at if the % is very high. Ideally 5 or 6 previous fixtures is what we're looking for ,and there should be only 1 or 2 previous meetings that have ended OVER 3rd CRITERIA - previous league results. Here we're looking for the home and away sides to have an above average ratio of UNDERS when looking at their current form. Ideally only 1 or 2 OVERS at the most , again depending on how many games played and as the season goes on. I always put more emphasis on the home teams form as a matter of course. At least i TRY [lol] to stick to these rules !!
    Also
    Odds are in the region of 1.5 to 1.7 and progressive staking is used until 100 pts has been reached. Insurance SHOULD be taken on the 2-1 home win
    Staking Plan
    BET 1- 20PT WIN If that comes in then ALL RETURNS on BET 2 . If that is sucessful then a small portion of the returns [ usually around 2 - 2.5 pts] is placed on a home score of 2-1 with the rest going onto BET 3 . If the main bet comes in then we BANK the winnings and return to 20pt win If 'insurance' bet of 2-1 comes in then we're back to placing returns from that on BET 1 . If both fail then we've lost 20pts from starting bank and start at BET 1 [20PTS] again.

    Racingpost simple question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Racingpost simple question Thanks guys. So : Outside the parenthesis is the days LTO to similar than todays' race type (flat-jumps?) and inside the days LTO to different type ( P? ). Well this is what i understood so far. At first example at Towchester (chace) - 305 (21P) - its 305 days since last run over jumps -23 may 2007- . So if the rest (21P) is 21 days since another race why this race doesnt show at all at past races? ( by clicking at horses name)? At second example Muss 2.50 (flat) - 544 (130j) - its 544 days since last run over flat - 26 sept 2006 - and at this case the (130J) is 130 days since last run at jumps (14 nov 2007 - hurdle). These last races over jumps apear at horses' last races.(why this time apear correctly?) At this last example at the left of the horse name (previus performance) there is a 'd'. What does it means?

    Racingpost simple question

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi everyone. At racingpost site: In Towcester 4.50 a horse:

    P5P7P5http://javascript:OWSize('','/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=649018&race_id=451019',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Luke Lively 305 (21P)
    or In Muss 2.50 another horse:
    1d4375/http://javascript:OWSize('','/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=639935&race_id=450928',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Truly Fruitful 544 (130J)
    What does '21P' and '130J' means? It has to do with days since last run but i dont get it. What is the '305' ?Going at first horse previus races it has only two previus races. Where are the others? - P57P5- Similar at second horse. What does the 'd' means at second horse?

    martingale the virtual football at corals?!?!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: martingale the virtual football at corals?!?! Virtual football is exactly the same as roulette. It has an in build ‘margin’ – the bookmaker’s profit - and results are random. So in the long run you will loose money whatever staking plan you will use.

    The only way a bettor has a ‘chance’ to win money by betting is at the cases that involve judgment. If your judgment about the outcome of an event is better than the ‘chances’ taken from odds then you will eventually win.

    Dices

    My Top Rated Horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: My Top Rated Horses Hi, how do you compile your ratings? I mean do you give lets say 100 pts for 1st place LTO etc and get a final number -adding all your criteria- or is it just a "general look" of every horse without specific numbers given? What are based on - criteria ?

    Greyhound laying system(TEST)

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Greyhound laying system(TEST)

    Total Lays = 12 Sucess Lays = 11 Uncess Lays = 1 Strike Rate = 92% As iam not puting real money in at the moment, i've havent really payed much attention to the odds :$! going to lay to a fixed liability, but aiming for a above a certain strike rate for it to work out in the long run.
    Good luck with this mate but if you don't record odds (at least the loosing ones) you may be wasting your time. Lets say that at the end of your trial the final stats are the above: Strike Rate = 92 % How will you know that the system is profitable or not? If the average odds of your loosing bets is lets say 10/1 (11.0) you will loose money. Laying to a fixed liability will not turn a loosing syster to a profitable one. Dices

    Other places that offer ratings like Massey?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Other places that offer ratings like Massey? Here they are : http://www.racingpost.co.uk/ http://www.adrianmassey.com/ http://www.infineform.com/printerfriendly.php http://www.xpertratings.com/daily-horse-ratings.htm http://www.racingguide.co.uk/ http://sumuwin.googlepages.com/ http://www.ukracestats.com/downloads.asp http://www.one4racing.co.uk/members/ There was another one at attheraces but i don't remember exactly where. Hope it helps. And .... what do you intend to do with them? Dices

    Follow the money

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Follow the money

    Just one thing, when do you actually put the bets on? Obviously the SP is not known until after the race. Thanks, BH
    A great question Billy, i'm not placing actually any bets as this is a test (and will be for a long time). I'm collecting RP results at the end of the day (with SP) and calculate any change at odds. If someone wants to place real bets will have to create something auto - a programm to calculate the drop and place the bets. Gruss soft can do it if someone create the needed formulas in excel (something for the future). Dices Edit: Or if you pre-calculate the required drop - the required new odds you can place bets easily.

    Follow the money

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi everyone.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

    The idea is well known. Assuming that Racing Post Forecast prices are “accurate†any significant “drop†in odds will indicate that some people know (I wonder how?) that the specific horse has “great†chance of winning.

    So they bet on this horse, odds dropping, we follow the money.

    The idea is sold through some commercial systems with amazing claims – winnings, let’s find out if it works.

    Some notes:

    In case of N/R rule 4 have calculated to the forecast prices. From these reduced prices I calculated any decrease in odds.

    The % decrease in odds is calculated only to the winning part of the odds, so from a forecast price of 10.0 and final SP of 6.0 the calculations are: 10.0-1.0 = 9.0 (this is the fcst price I use) and for the SP 6.0-1.0 = 5.0 (this is the final SP I use) so the drop is 9-5 = 4, so the % decrease is 4/9 = - 44.44% (minus because it is decrease).

    Why I did it this way? Simply because I believe this way of calculation is logical.

    Note that small errors may exist at the results but generally I believe they are correct.

    Recording started from almost the beginning of August 2007 (two months ago)

    Rules:

    Betting at the horse with the largest decrease in odds (fcst-SP) for every race and for level betting (one point per bet).

    Results at SP:

    Betting days

    47

    Won

    246

    Bets

    1247

    SR

    19.73

    Profit (points)

    -236.72

    Yield %

    -18.98

    After applying some filters:

    Forecast prices (before rule 4) bigger or equal than 9 AND smaller or equal than 21:

    Decrease in odds larger than 50% (>-50%) (The real inside information – bankers)

    Decrease % >=

    -50%

    -55%

    -60%

    -65%

    -70%

    Betting days

    47

    46

    42

    34

    15

    Won

    43

    36

    26

    16

    6

    Bets

    224

    150

    98

    44

    17

    SR

    19.20

    24.00

    26.53

    36.36

    35.29

    Profit (points)

    24.63

    50.13

    41.83

    40.50

    13.00

    Yield %

    10.99

    33.42

    42.69

    92.05

    76.47

    The 50 points profit (aprox) at the last table with the filters is made in August 2007 (20 betting days) and September has made a small loss. The sample for the last table is still small so I’ll be back in a couple of months with the new data ( I hope).

    Big thanks to sumuwin, without his help I wouldn’t be able to track the results.

    THANKS SUMUWIM.

    Dices

    Question for Systems Experts

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Question for Systems Experts Hi, my thoughts: There are systems that have rules like this:" no bet if odds smaller than evens ". Those systems you can say that take into account odds and chances. And generally speaking, if a system is profitable in the long run, it finds value bets. It doesnt have to do any special "research" at odds-chances, just needs to be profitable. Just my thoughts. Dices

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