wisey10
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Posts posted by wisey10
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > October 19th & 20th I've also taken Wigan on the draw no bet line. Not massively confident with it as Blackpool are proving very difficult to beat and with Tom Ince and Ricardo Fuller they have two quality players who can win games out of nothing. Unders looks a very possible outcome. Watford and Brighton are the other two that I'm keen on and will hopefully do some write ups in the morning. Barnsley on the handicap could be another goer.
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Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... If you are just betting on value, then you've got to look at long term results rather than short term. The nature of 'value' betting doesn't mean that your selections are GOING to win. Just that if you continually back sides at a bigger price than their true odds you should win over a longer term period. You might have a bad run losing for a number of weeks on the trot. You could then go on a run of winning bets for a longer period. The element of randomness means that the results could fall in anyway. The same way you might see a big run of red or black on a roulette wheel. Thats all the theory side anyway. The problem there lies for me that 'value' betting is in the eye of the beholder. You've got the numbers and stats side to it which are going to be the dominant factor in bookies odd compiling. But you've then got the external factors with injuries, morale e.t.c where the punters knowledge could help in gaining an edge. That's why for me I would rarely bet on teams/leagues I have little knowledge of. Stats alone can't show the true picture and for me it would be very difficult to get an edge on the bookies purely using the same stats as they might. In short, you can't get too down and over analytical on short term poor form. The fact that you short listed winners but didn't back them shows you can't be doing it all wrong. If you are still finding that your results are poor over a much longer period, it might be time then to consider how you are deciding bets are 'value' .
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > October 5th & 6th Bad call from me today and full respect to Burnley who keep looking the business. Well done to all winners in what was a very tricky card:clap
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > October 5th & 6th Burnley v reading +0.25 @ 2.025 Bet365 (3 Points) Ive said it before and I will say it again, there isn't anyone in this league who I wouldn't take on with Reading on a positive handicap. Burnley are flying high and in fantastic form but they will be in for a tough game today. The Royals are on a six game unbeaten run and I'm hoping they will avoid defeat again in this match. They've actually only lost one league game all season which just illustrates how tough they are to beat. In the week they drew 1-1 at Barnsley and all reports suggest that Barnsley were unlucky not to win and Reading didn't play that well. But grinding out results when not on your game is as good a trait as any. I think they will be well up for this game anyway and hopefully they will give Burnley the respect they deserve and be up for this game. Its hard to ignore Burnleys excellent results. But on the whole I think their home fixtures have been pretty kind so far. They've beaten Yeovil, Birmingham, Charlton well who are all bottom half teams as well as a good, tighter 2-1 win v Forest and finally a draw with Blackburn. I think Reading is going to be their toughest match to date, despite the Royals not playing well in the week. With a positive handicap at evens, Reading have to be the play for me.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st
It depends on what type of punter you are. If you like backing short price favourites in doubles e.t.c then it is a poor league to bet on. I read a stat somewhere that in all the worlds big leagues the championship produces most upsets from favourites. The fact that it does so makes it the best league to punt on in my opinion.The game Brighton-SW proves that this is a very unreliable league. I lost a great combo with 4 other CL games, but that is my fault. Maybe trying Over 5,5 or even 6,5 goals more often, because results like Derby today come pretty often. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st
Brighton have been backed heavily and now are 1.61 in the market' date=' I'd say in a division like this that is starting to look on the skinny side. To look for a little value, Ulloa to score anytime is 2.05 and R Johnson for Sheff Wed is 8.0 in the same market. I'm going to nip in and take 5 points on Ulloa and 1 point on Johnson anytime as they look the biggest threats for both teams respectively.[/quote'] Yes, I wouldn't touch Brighton at that price. They are very hard to beat but still draw too many games. -
Re: Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th Stoke were absolutely dire against Norwich on Sunday. The worst home performance ive seen from them in the premier league. It has since emerged that there is a rift between players with Shawcross and Jones falling out over the latters outspoken mocking and criticism of Pulis. It could all blow over quickly or this one could rumble on for a while.In view of this it makes it awkward to bet on for me. There's no doubt it clearly affected the performance on Sunday. Who knows whether it will be cleared up or not for the Fulham match.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st Middlesbrough v Huddersfield + 0.5 @ 1.875 bet365 (4 Points) Price is wrong. Boro haven't won a home game all season and sit 5 points behind the Terriers. In my book that makes Boro on a -0.25 line. Huddersfield haven't got a brilliant away record but they are unbeaten in 4 and have one of the form strikers of the league in James Vaghan. Boro are also struggling with a couple of injuries including the influential Woodgate and Ledesema is still suspended. I like this Huddersfield side and though I couldn't confidently say they will get something from this game, I can confidently say that the price is wrong. The away side on a +0.5 hcap would have a 100% winning record this season. And Boro's only win all season was at struggling Charlton. Huddersfield are no pushovers and at the price, they've got to be taken IMHO.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st
I must admit that Kane is the one in your back line that I don't like. Dann has impressed me whenever I've seen him but obviously you watch them a lot more than me so I take your comments on board! I'm hoping they will pick up at least a point anyway.I bloody hope so mate. Rhodes is on fire at the minute. The key for us, though, has been Josh King - when he isolates their right back, we look like we can score at will. Just one thing I would disagree with is our defence. Definitively not solid, Dann looks shaky & Kane, whilst great going forward, has been poor defensively. My biggest worry though is Kean in the sticks. He needs some competition for his place, he's become complacent to me. I certainly think we can get something from the game though. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st Doncaster +0.25 v Burnley @ 1.875 Bet365 (3 Points) its hard to try and start backing this bet up with stats as quite simply Burnleys results have been great this season. Dyche has hardly spent spent a bean and on top of that lost his top scorer in Charlie Austin. But he's got his small squad organised and playing for each other and the results speak for themselves. But as well as they are playing, I don't think it's unfair to say that they haven't necessarily got the quality in their side of say a QPR or Reading. I'm not convinced that Burnley should be as short as they are in this match as the away side. Donny have had a mixed bag of results but they've shown they are no pushovers. I think they will match the Clarets in this match for sheer effort and endeavour and that might just be enough. They've signed Macheda on loan who has immediately hit the ground running with goals and he could provide that bit of cutting edge Donny need to compete in this league. I think the price on Donny is just a bit too generous and I think this could be the match in which Burnleys winning run comes to an end.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday October 1st Blackburn + 0.25 v Watford @ 1.80 Bet365 (3 Points) I think there is a bit of value on taking the home side on a positive handicap. They have won 2, drawn 1, lost 1 at home with the defeat coming early on in a 1-0 loss v Forest. I think they have been improving as the season has gone on though and they've racked up a couple of good wins in the process. There's no doubt that Watford are a very good side and they are very dangerous in attack as their 5-1 thumping away at Barnsley shows. They have won 2, drawn 1, lost 1 on the road matching Blackburns home record. Their 2 wins were at Barnsley and Birmingham though who are bottom third sides. Against top half sides they lost at Blackpool and drew at Reading. Blackburn are now looking steady at the back and will prove a tough test for Watford to break down. And with Rhodes and Best up front they have plenty of goals in them too and I think they can breach the Hornet's defence. It should be a tight game but with the home advantage and the positive handicap on side, I'm backing Rovers to take at least a point against Zolas men.
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Re: Everton v Newcastle United > Monday September 30th Everton v Newcastle +1 (AH) @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 point) It's a tough one to call this. All the stats point towards Everton but I can't help feeling they are too short. My gut instinct is to take Newcastle on the handicap but on examining the stats, it's difficult to make a real case for them. Their away form is poor and Everton have such a strong recent record at Goodison. but I'm still not convinced that Newcastle should be +1 on the Asian line. The Toffees need to win by 2 goals or more to make the bet a loser and in spite of the stats, I think Toon are better than the odds suggest. In view of this I'm taking a small 1 point play on the Toon handicap.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > September 27th & 28th Nottm Forest -0.25 v Derby @ 1.80 Bet365 (4 Points) Price has now hit what I wanted on the -0.25 line and Forest become playable. They have a good home record with 3 wins and 1 draw on their own turf and I don't think they will be beaten today. Derby have a great record on the road so far but if you look a little closer, those victories have all been against bottom half sides. They were well beaten at home against Reading in their last match and whilst they have been decent against the lower teams, I think they will struggle away at promotion chasing sides. With half stakes returned in the event of a draw, I definitely feel Forest are worth a punt to record another home victory in this local derby.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > September 27th & 28th Ipswich v Brighton + 0.25 @ 1.85 Bet365 (3 Points) This could be a tight match today but with the +0.25 on the Seagulls, I think they are worth a small play. Ipswich's home form is very good but by the same token, Brighton are very hard to beat. They are unbeaten in their last six and the new manager is finally starting to put his stamp on things. They still have a number of injuries and Ulloa being suspended is a big loss which has reduced the size of my bet here. But I still think they have a good chance of continuing their run and picking up at least a draw. They are playing well and their possession football will make life difficult for the Tractor Boys.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > September 27th & 28th Reading v Birmingham @ 1.95 Bet365 (4 Points) Two good win for Birmingham in the league and cup has resulted on the Reading price drifting and 1.95 on the Royals will do me nicely thank you very much. Before these wins I was pricing this match up in my head last Saturday and had Reading down at 1.72. Obviously Brum have put in a couple of decent performances since then but they won't have many harder games this season than Reading away. Atkins' men are finally starting to put a bit of form together and the addition of Billy Sharp up front is a good one. I expect Reading to be winning a good percentage of their home games this season and against bottom half teams like Brum I give them a much better chance than 50/50. It's a home win for me.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > September 27th & 28th Huddersfield +0 @ 1.85 Bet365 (4 Points) (short on time) Ive been waiting All week hoping the price was going to drift to make the draw no bet line playable and it finally has. I really underestimated Blackpool at the start of the season but they have proved me wrong and been in great form. This will even out over the season though and Huddersfield have proved they are a match for anyone in this league. The price here is wrong in my opinion and the Terriers should be on a -0.25 line as they have been most of the week. Value all on Huddersfield for me.
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Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th I'd make Saints about 1.66. They are definitely too short but I don't particularly fancy taking them on either. I can see why bookies are keeping them on side in this match. As Gill says, they will no doubt be on plenty of coupons.
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Re: Carling Cup > September 25th Tranmere V Stoke -1 (AH) @ 1.825 Bet365 (5 Points) Not a great price here but Stoke have put a very strong side out and I will be very surprised if they don't win. Hughes is taking the cup seriously as shown with tonight's team news. With a decent draw at Tranmere it would be a travesty to blow it at this stage. I'm confident of a Stoke win so feel they are worth a decent play on the handicap.
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Re: Arsenal v Stoke City > Sunday September 22nd First Goalscorer: Marko Arnautovic @ 19.00 Bet365 (0.5 Points) Small interest play and probably heart ruling head but it's a decent enough price. Stoke's new signing is making his full debut and will be playing off Kenwyne Jones. He's got a cracking shot on him, a big unit so a threat in the air and can also take set pieces. He's quite a direct player and making his first full debut so Im Having a nibble on the fairy tale start at a price worth a speculative go.
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Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 2.63 Coral (3 Points) I like this Swansea side a lot but they are a daft price here. I don't think Holloway's men are going to be any whipping boys this season. Their home form was excellent last season and this is where they will pick up the majority of their points this year. Jedinak is a good, solid defensive figure for them in the middle and with Puncheon and Jerome out wide for them, their pace on the counter is going to be paramount. The Swans had a great win at Valencia in the week but it does mean Palace have had better preparation for this match. It's funny how often you seem a team on a high after a great victory go and put a poor performance in their next match. But ultimately, it's the price which is the major factor in this match for me and Palce are being under estimated for my money. Palace draw no bet.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship - September 21st & 22nd Wigan v Ipswich @ 2.00 VcBet (3 Points) I think evens is a fair price on Wigan in this match. Some firms are going with 1.83 which was pretty much what I was expecting on them. Yes they had an away match in Europe on Thursday which won't have helped preparations but Coyle rotated a bit and I think it's been accounted for in the price anyway. They haven't got off to the best of starts winning 1 and drawing 2 at home so far. They've got a great squad and over the course of the season I see them finishing top 6. Ipswich are fairly mediocre and whilst McCarthy is doing a decent enough job, I think a draw is the best they can hope for here. But at even money I would prefer to side with the quality of the Latics as sooner or later I think they are going to start building a bit of momentum. This game represents the perfect opportunity to get things back on track and I'm hoping there's going to be no European hangover. Wigan win for me.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship - September 21st & 22nd Derby v Reading + 0.25 @ 1.875 Bet365 (3 points) Derby have been outstanding on the road this year but strangely not so good at home. The complete opposite of last year. I expect their form will soon start to even out with their home form picking up and a few losses on the road. But Reading aren't the best side to be up against to start with. They are going to be a very difficult side to beat this season and there aren't many sides I wouldn't back them against with a positive handicap on their side. With Derby's erratic form at home, I'm going to chance the Royals picking up at least a draw.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship - September 21st & 22nd Yeovil v QPR @ 1.83 Coral (4 Points) There's not too much reasoning needed here. It's been a while since I've seen a team come up to the championship and struggle as much as Yeovil are doing. By the same token, since coming down QPR have had no hiccups and going about their business exactly how they should do picking up the results they need. If this was a prem match with top v bottom, the away side would be much shorter. I just think Redknapps side will have too much quality and fully expect them to get the 3 points.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship - September 21st & 22nd Blackburn vHuddersfield + 0.5 @ 1.875 Bet365 (3 Points) Blackburn have had two great results in their last couple of home matches but I think Huddersfield might give them a tougher test here. They are looking very tough to beat and in James Vaughan they have a match winner in as good as form as Jordan Rhodes. I can see this being a tight game and I'd rather have the positive handicap on my side. I think a low scoring draw looks likely with a goal either way possibly nicking it. As such the value is on the Terriers for me.
West Ham v Manchester City > Saturday October 19th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: West Ham v Manchester City > Saturday October 19th I'm another who think Man City will win this. Yes their away form has been terrible. But this must now be an absolute priority to Pellegrini. If they are to win the title they can't carry on with such poor away form. With all the new signings I think it's taken City a while to decide what's their best team. I think Pellegrini must have learnt by now that you can't take any away games in the prem lightly and I think they will be drilled and ready for this. I'm not convinced that West Ham away is now the tough game that it once was. The odds aren't fantastic but I strongly fancy a Man City win here.