wisey10
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Posts posted by wisey10
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
League 2 continues to prop the others up with another good week: Total Staked: 5 Total Return: 7.95 P/L: +2.95 New Balance: 108.275League 2 Round 3 Selections: Luton -0.25 @ 1.95 Plymouth -0.5 @ 2.05 Accruing ton +0.25 @ 2.05 Shrewsbury + 0 @1.975 (2 Points) 4 Bets, 5 Points staked -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Total Staked: 9 Total Return: 7.15 P/L: -1.85 New Balance:94.325League 1 Round 3 Selections: Coventry +0.25 @ 1.95 MK Dons +0 @ 2.00 (2 Points) Scunthorpe + 0 @ 2.00 Crewe +1 @ 1.825 (2 Points) Swindon -0.25 @ 1.95 Bradford +0 @2.025 (2 Points) 6bets, 9Points staked -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Total Staked 13 Total Return 12.775 P/L: -0.1125 New Balance: 100.3625Championship Round 3 Selections: Leeds +0.25 @ 2.075 Charlton+1 @ 1.825 (2 Points) Middlesbrough +0.25 @ 1.85 (2 Points) Norwich -0.25 @2.10 Blackpool +0.75 @ 1.925 (2 Points) Milwall +0.25 @ 1.825 Reading +0.25 @ 1.85 Watford +0.25 @ 1.975 Brentford +0.5 @ 1.90 (2 Points) Another busy week in the champ, 9 selections; 13 Points staked -
Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 17th & 18th There's no doubt Cardiff are under achieving but I can't help but think Forest keep being under estimated. Yes they haven't kept up with their early season form but they are still proving to be very hard to beat. Will leave it alone at the current odds but if they drift just a little bit to a + 0.25 handicap I would back them. Will stay away for now though...
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Re: Stoke City v Swansea City > Sunday October 19th Decent write up Phantom but it's worth noting that Stoke are absolutely shocking at set pieces since Hughes took over. Team news wise Moses and Diouf should be fit which is a massive plus but Whelan is out which is a blow as he's been great for us this season. Agree with you that draw no bet on Stoke is a decent play at the odds. Should definitely be a -0.25 line. Good luck with this one!
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 17th & 18th Ipswich -0.25 v Blackburn @ 1.875 Bet365 (4 Points) Ipswich are in fine form at the moment and I like the -0.25 line on offer here. They've won 4/5 of their home matches this season with the one defeat a narrow 1-0 loss against Norwich. It's 8 games ago since they lost that match and they have won the 3 following homes by a 2-0 score line. In their 4 Aways since then they have won at Wigan and drawn at Derby, Sheff Wednesday and Forest. That is a very impressive run and on that evidence they've got a good chance of taking the 3 points in this match. Blackburn are in stuttering form. On the road they have lost 3 and won 2 but it should be noted that the away wins were at Blackpool and Fulham who were both in poor form at the time. Away at Ipswich who have won 4/5 is a much tougher proposition. There's a danger of Blackburn earning a draw here but with half stakes returned in that event, I think Ipswich are worth taking. They are one of the form teams in the league and I think there's a little bit of value on them.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 17th & 18th Bournemouth v Charlton +1 (AH) @ 1.80 (5 Points) This looks a very generous line on Charlton who are so far unbeaten this season. Bournemoth's results have started to pick up but they still aren't fully making their possession count. Their home form isn't great; W2, D1, L2 and I don't think it justifies such short odds on them. It's also worth noting that Kermogant is suspended against his old club and I think that's a big blow, especially if they are going to break this Charlton side down. The Addicks have had a good start to the season and are so far unbeaten, home and away. There's no doubt that they've been riding their luck to an exten as they have been dominated at times in possession and they arent creating that many chances. But they are converting the ones which are coming their way and they are proving to be very hard to beat. There's an opinion that they are over achieving and certainly to an extent they are. But that's also doing them a bit of disservice as being extremely organised and clinical in taking your chances is a great strength. I backed Bournemouth ante post and there's a lot to like about them. They aren't a million miles away from making a serious promotion push but the reality is they aren't quite the finished article yet despite their attractive football and High possession. I actually think they are better suited to playing other expansive sides and see them struggling against more physical types. Their home loss to Leeds and draw to Rotherham possibly back this up and They might struggle to put Charlton to the sword too. To cover this handicap they need to win by two goals and all things considered the line simply looks wrong. I would make Charlton on a +0.5 line and Bournemouth around 1.85 for the win. As such I shall be backing Charlton with medium stakes on the +1 Asian Handicap.
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 2 Round 3 Selections: Luton -0.25 @ 1.95 Plymouth -0.5 @ 2.05 Accruing ton +0.25 @ 2.05 Shrewsbury + 0 @1.975 (2 Points) 4 Bets, 5 Points staked
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 1 Round 3 Selections: Coventry +0.25 @ 1.95 MK Dons +0 @ 2.00 (2 Points) Scunthorpe + 0 @ 2.00 Crewe +1 @ 1.825 (2 Points) Swindon -0.25 @ 1.95 Bradford +0 @2.025 (2 Points) 6bets, 9Points staked
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Championship Round 3 Selections: Leeds +0.25 @ 2.075 Charlton+1 @ 1.825 (2 Points) Middlesbrough +0.25 @ 1.85 (2 Points) Norwich -0.25 @2.10 Blackpool +0.75 @ 1.925 (2 Points) Milwall +0.25 @ 1.825 Reading +0.25 @ 1.85 Watford +0.25 @ 1.975 Brentford +0.5 @ 1.90 (2 Points) Another busy week in the champ, 9 selections; 13 Points staked
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
League 2 Round 2 Selections: Carlisle +0 @ 1.825 Morecambe +0 @2.125 Mansfield +0.5 @ 1.825 Cheltenham + 0.5 @ 1.90 Plymouth + 0 @ 1.975
Good week for league 2: + 3.55 Points Total Staked 15 total Return 20.325 profit/loss + +5.325 Current Balance: 105.325 PointsTwo more selections qualifying for league 2: Cambridge +0 @ 1.875 2 Points luton +0. @ 2.175 -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Bad round for league 1: -3.55 Points Total staked 12 Total Return 8.175 profit/loss -3.825 Current Balance 96.175League 1 Round 2 Selections: Chesterfield +0.5 @ 2.00 Crawley +0.25 @ 1.925 Crewe + 0.25 @ 2.05 Sheff Utd -0.25 @ 1.95 Bradford +0.25 @ 1.80 (2 Points) -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Two more selections qualifying for league 2: Cambridge +0 @ 1.875 2 Points luton +0. @ 2.175
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 2 Round 2 Selections: Carlisle +0 @ 1.825 Morecambe +0 @2.125 Mansfield +0.5 @ 1.825 Cheltenham + 0.5 @ 1.90 Plymouth + 0 @ 1.975
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 1 Round 2 Selections: Chesterfield +0.5 @ 2.00 Crawley +0.25 @ 1.925 Crewe + 0.25 @ 2.05 Sheff Utd -0.25 @ 1.95 Bradford +0.25 @ 1.80 (2 Points)
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Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?
It was a joke pal :okI never said it was fixed, did I ? I said I don't buy into match fixing at the end. -
Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?
Dont be daft Aidy, it's not fixed. Someone's obviously tipped them up in the JPT thread and all the pro gamblers and Asian syndicates have lumped on. It's what's known amongst the bookies as 'the punters lounge phenomenon' ;)Deffo all about opinions. Big coincidence this, but I got a text via facebook a few minutes ago, a guy who thinks the Rochdale match is fixed tonight in the Johnstones Paint Trophy. He said most games have at most 4k matched on Betfair, but 45k has been matched on Rochdale alone already. He reckons either someone is having a massive punt or it is fixed. Don't but into the match fixing myself, reckon it's someone having a big punt, but interesting. -
Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? It's all about opinions hey! Its the fact that the league is so unpredictable that makes it appealing to me. If the gulf in class between top and bottom isn't that great, that creates opportunities on the handicap that I might think are the wrong price. In a predictable league like the prem, you generally know who will finish top 8 and you can probably break it down further; top 2, top 4, top7 e.t.c That makes opportunities of finding value very rare IMHO. Much easier to find in the championship where it's more unpredictable. If you are someone who likes to solely follow stats and back favourites then you are going to come unstuck. But I can't see how you would be profitable backing that way in the prem either because games are priced accordingly. you've got to find what works best for you and suits your style of betting. In my experience I've found that I lose less in the championship than I do in the prem.
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Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? There's no way on earth that championship results are fixed. The biggest windfall any championship club or player could have is promotion to the premier league. Theres been a couple of players done haven't there? (Dj Campbell?) but nothing to do with the fixing of a games outcome. Something like first throw in can be mmanipulated but not match result when you've got 22 players out there. Norwich losing at home to Charlton is just football and what makes it so special and hard to bet on! A team can dominate for 90 minutes and get done on a sucker punch. That's the nature of the game. With regards to your main question on championship betting, I'm no expert, just a hobby punter, but here are my thoughts for what they are worth... I just watch any games that are on sky and the basic highlights on the football league show. I also follow every championship club on twitter to keep up to date with the latest goings on, read various match reports and from time to time, visit fans forums to get a gist on how they think the team are performing. The beauty of betting on the championship for me is that it's such a competitive league. I find very few bets I like in the premier league and I think a big part of this is because of the gap in class between top and bottom. On the weekend just gone, in the championship you had a team in 18th (Brighton) away at a team in 2nd place (Watford) and the 18th placed side who were away went off as favourites. To me that is a much more interesting betting proposition than say QPR away at Man City where the betting market is pretty much a case of how many goals will they win/lose by. I don't think I'm particularly qualified to give you any tips as such and your approach to betting in the champ should be no different to any other league: value. You're not betting on the team you think will win necessarily, you arebetting on the team who's price you think is too generous. For me personally I like to price up sides myself before I look at the bookies prices. If there's a big difference in any matches between mine and theirs then I will have a look more closely and see if there's anything I'm missing. Other things to consider are how a team may cope with certain styles, how they perform home versus away, performance v top/bottom half sides e.t.c In the example I gave above with Watford/Brighton, I think the reason Brighton were so short is because they have being playing well by all accounts recently and though they are near the bottom, there is obviously an expectation amongst many that they are going to turn the corner sooner rather than later. They have a lot of possession in games and for some that means a lot. Bournemouth are a similar example at the moment. Play very well in patches and often have more possession but not quite making it count. But what you always should be keeping in mind and looking at first is what price are they? Charlton are unbeaten but reports e.t.c suggest they have been having a lot of luck. There is an expectancy that their luck could run out soon and for that reason you will probably see better prices on them for the time being than their league position suggests. The key is deciding whether that price is correct or not. If you can master that then youve cracked it. It's easier said than done though! Good luck.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th
Not find out where they are going wrong' date=' but maybe get an early indication to where the action is going? Didn't I hear somewhere PL is the most popular football forum in Europe? Or was I dreaming? lol[/quote'] Im sceptical they they take much notice personally. But more to the point, I just don't particularly like actively discouraging the posting of tips. It's what this forum is for isn't it? -
Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th Alex, surely this is a forum for sharing tips and ideas :eyes:eyes If you think odds compilers come on here to find out where they are going wrong, I think you are living in dream land.
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Re: Double Your Money
Watford v Brighton 1-1 = Bet void, money back Ipswich v Nottm Forest 2-2 = Win Starting Balance: 100 Points Current Balance: 101.75 Bets 2 Wins 1 Void 1As the title says, the simple goal of this hunt is to double the starting balance over the course of the season. Not as easy as it sounds. The vast majority of my bets will be Asian Handicap selections, mainly in the championship. This will be a marathon rather than a sprint. Stating Bank 100 Points. First selections: Watford + 0 v Brighton @ 1.875 (3 Points) Ipswich +0.5 v Nottm Forest @ 1.875 (2 Points) -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Championship Round 2 Results: Stake: 13 Points Return: 14.475 Points Profit/loss: +1.475 Points Starting Balance: 100 Current Balance: 100.475 Combined Results: Starting Balance: 300 Current Balance: 301.875 Total Staked: 28 Total Return: 29.875 Yield: 6.7%Round 2 Selections: Blackpool +0.25 @ 2.00 1 Point Leeds +0 @ 2.10 1 Point Huddersfield + 0.75 @ 1.85 1 Point Bolton + 0.25 @ 2.00 1 Point Charlton -0.25 @ 1.85 2 Points Milwall +1 @ 1.925 1 Point Middlesbrough -0.5 @ 1.80 1 Point Rotherham + 1 @ 2.025 1 Point Watford -0.25 @ 2.025 2 Points Wolves -0.5 @ 2.025 1 Point Ipswich +0.5 @ 1.875 1 Point Wowzers, 11/12 matches qualify for selection this weekend. 13 points being staked on 11 selections. This could all end in tears very quickly at this rate. I am going to run a glory hunt along side this where I record my own profit/loss so I can compare to this one. The aim is to see long term whether I am better using my own judgement to help determine bets or to purely play the odds alone. -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Round 1 League 2 Reaults: Stake 7 Points Return 8.775 Points Profit/loss: +1.775 Starting Balance: 100 Current Balance: 101.775Round 1 (League 2) Burton -0.5 v Cambridge @ 1.975 (1 Point) Accruington Stanley +0.5 v Mansfield @ 1.90 (1 Point) Newport +0.25 v Oxford @ 1.85 (1 Point) Morecambe +0.75 v Southend @ 1.975 (2 Points) Portsmouth +0.25 v York @ 1.925 (2 Points) Total Stake 7 Points
Wisey's Asian Handicapping
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Combined Totals: Starting Bank: 300 Points Current Bank: 302.9625 P/L: + 2.9625 Total Staked: 80 Yield: 3.7% Not exactly showing great results at the moment but keeping its head above water at least. Another full schedule tomorrow....