wisey10
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Posts posted by wisey10
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Re: Championship > 16th - 17th August If Fuller does sign he won't be match fit anyway but with Davies and Chopra I don't know if strikers are their biggest concern. I will do full write ups later in the week when I get chance but these are the ones in my mind: Leeds -0.25 @ 1.825 Lay Forest Reading +0 @ 1.825 QPR I think the prices on all of these will only get worse. Just my guess of course. Watford getting priced up as favourites for the league now. But we are only two games in and despite their great performances, there's a long way to go. Reading will be there or thereabouts and with the home advantage the value has to be on them IMHO. Ipswich's win on Saturday flattered them a bit and I think QPR are going to pick up 3 points at home in more than 50% of their matches. I make them 4/5 tops on Saturday. Maybe even 8/11.
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Re: Championship > 16th - 17th August
100% agree with this. 1.85 is available and im pretty sure this line won't last. Think you will be looking at a straight -0.5 line by Saturday. That said I've opposed Blackpool in their last two matches and obviously lost both times.:lolMiddlesbrough V Blackpool Middlesbrough -0.25 @ 4/5 (Pinnacle) 2 Units Quite like the look of Middlesbrough here, a decent 3pts for them against Charlton at the weekend but more importantly they have added a couple more pieces to the puzzle recently. Frazer Richardson at RB looks to be a shrewd aquisition while Albert Adomah balances out Mustapha Carayol in the advanced exterior postions. I wasn't sure about Middlesbrough at the start of this campaign but their first eleven is looking pretty balanced now and the home match V Blackpool this weekend should be seen as an opportunity to gain 3pts. Blackpool have had a great start to the season - taking maximum points from both games but that was against Donny and Barnsley. The latter contest should have ended in a draw so Paul Ince's side have pushed their luck somewhat. Tom Ince misses out again this weekend while Matt Phillips is still injured. Blackpool with a thread bare squad really struggle to create without these two players and the tangerines will surely be put to the test this weekend at the Riverside. If Blackpool lineup with their usual 4-4-2 I think they will struggle in the middle of the pitch against Middlesbrough's 4-2-3-1. Whitehead, Varga and Leadbitter will surely control that central median area so I feel Ince's side will find it harder to retain the ball here. The big question will be can Middlesbrough convert their control over the game into goals? Their biggest problem has been putting opponents out of sight in recent times so if Middlesbrough do win here it's likely to be by a narrow margin. Having said that I really don't expect Blackpool to win here so Middlesbrough on the -0.25 line is worth a shot imo. The baseline value is around 1.75 for the Boro -0.25 line in my view here so anything above that is takeable as things stand. The price has already fluctuated a fair bit today so I've decided to stick a couple of units on it early so I'm not fretting about the market for the rest of the week. Sods law price will get bigger tommorow but I can't be bothered to agonise over this one as I feel it's an acceptable opportunity. Obviously there are internationals this week and the window is still open so a lot can happen between now and the weekend but if it all turns sour I'll lay this off before the game and post the update. I'm pretty sure you can get Middlesbrough -0.25 @ 17/20 with some books at the time of writing this so peeps should have a look round. Let's see how things go over the next few days. Some interesting prices in the championship this week so we'll see if anything else viable emerges roundabout Friday when team news is available. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > 10th / 11th August leicester v Leeds: BTTS @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (3 points) Leicester haven't kept a clean sheet in the league for 17 games. They are a decent attacking side though and I expect them to breach the Leeds defence which is in my opinion the weak area for Leeds. The Whites should have enough in attack to get on the scoresheet though and I can see both sides scoring at least 1. The overs is available at 1.85 but I think both teams to score looks the safer option at only a slightly lower price.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > 10th / 11th August
Blackpool v Barnsley +0.5 @ 2.00 Bet365 (5 Points) I had liked the look of this one at the start of the week anyway but after Blackpools cup game I like it even more because Tom Ince is suspended and Cathcart and Martinez are set to miss out through injury. Blackpools squad is far too small and Ince couldn't rest any players against Preston. Their first 11 is ok. BUt when injuries and suspensions kick in I think they will really struggle. I was really impressed with Barnsley under Flitcroft last season and I think they should be ok again this season. Their opening day 4-0 defeat against Wigan has skewed the markey a bit here I think. They were well beaten in the match but I think Wigan might dish out a few drubbings like that. This should be a much more even match and I really fancy the Tykes to avoid defeat.
Another bad day for me with two last minute goals killing me. It swung from a 5 point profit to a 6 Point loss all in the last minute! Bad start but it's a long season and will hopefully make it up in the coming weeks. It can take a few matches to get a proper feel. That's my excuse anyway;)Blackburn DNB v Nottm forest @ 2.00 Skybet (3 Points) Taking a bit of a chance on this one because Blackburn are a bit depleted with injuries and a suspension. But I think the price is too good to leave alone. Forest are building a good side and should go well this season. And they certainly have a chance of taking something from this game. I watched the Blackburn game v Derby last week and thought they deserved the late equaliser to earn the point. They weren't spectacular or anything but Derby are a good home side and Rovers gave them a decent game. Losing Rochina to injury is a big loss for them but Rhodes and Best still look as good a forward line as you will see in the championship. With the home advantage Blackburn should put up a good fight and create enough chances for Rhodes and Best to take advantage of. Forest will be a tough test but evens draw no bet on the home side is a bit too generous in my opinion and such is worth a smallish punt. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > 10th / 11th August Blackburn DNB v Nottm forest @ 2.00 Skybet (3 Points) Taking a bit of a chance on this one because Blackburn are a bit depleted with injuries and a suspension. But I think the price is too good to leave alone. Forest are building a good side and should go well this season. And they certainly have a chance of taking something from this game. I watched the Blackburn game v Derby last week and thought they deserved the late equaliser to earn the point. They weren't spectacular or anything but Derby are a good home side and Rovers gave them a decent game. Losing Rochina to injury is a big loss for them but Rhodes and Best still look as good a forward line as you will see in the championship. With the home advantage Blackburn should put up a good fight and create enough chances for Rhodes and Best to take advantage of. Forest will be a tough test but evens draw no bet on the home side is a bit too generous in my opinion and such is worth a smallish punt.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > 10th / 11th August Blackpool v Barnsley +0.5 @ 2.00 Bet365 (5 Points) I had liked the look of this one at the start of the week anyway but after Blackpools cup game I like it even more because Tom Ince is suspended and Cathcart and Martinez are set to miss out through injury. Blackpools squad is far too small and Ince couldn't rest any players against Preston. Their first 11 is ok. BUt when injuries and suspensions kick in I think they will really struggle. I was really impressed with Barnsley under Flitcroft last season and I think they should be ok again this season. Their opening day 4-0 defeat against Wigan has skewed the markey a bit here I think. They were well beaten in the match but I think Wigan might dish out a few drubbings like that. This should be a much more even match and I really fancy the Tykes to avoid defeat.
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Re: Capital One Cup > 5th - 7th August Too late for write ups but Brighton, Bolton, qpr treble looks worth a pop at 3/1 considering team news. Huddersfield also fielding decent side atn10/11.
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Re: Capital One Cup > 5th - 7th August Preston v Blackpool Goal Line: Under 2.5 @ 1.90 Bet365 (3 Points) in Preston's last 15 competitive fixtures, only 1 game has gone over 2.5 goals. Their first game of the season was 0-0 against Wolves. It's a local derby and you would expect some key players to be rested. All of these factors combined suggest that this could be a low scoring game. The fact that so many of their games go under makes the 10/11 look good value.
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Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August derby v Blackburn: Both teams to score @ 1.83 Bet365 (3 points) Derby are starting to look a decent side with a couple of cracking young players and the addition of Johnny Russell up front is potentially a very good one. The Rams had a great home record last year and I definitely see them getting on the score sheet today. Blackburn had a poor season last year but I expect them to improve a bit this season. When you've got a decent forward line you are always in with a chance. I'm not sure if they will take anything from this game but I do think they have enough about them to score today. In a hard game to call I think both teams to score looks the pick.
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Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August Dear oh dear, shocking start for me with 3 losers from 3. All with draw cover too! Well done to all winners, especially Fedar with the nice multiple.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Winner Top Goalscorer: Marvin Sordell @ 67.00 Bet365 (1 Point) Sordell is a player I've liked for a while and I don't understand why he never really got a chance at Bolton. He plays for the England under 21's which usually results in lots of hype but apparently not for Marvin. He had a decent goal scoring record in the championship when at Watford but then started to stagnate at Bolton. A couple of seasons on and now back in London on loan at Charlton, I think this could be the season he really pushes on. He should be number 1 choice for Charlton up front and as such I expect to see him starting the majority of matches. And as their focal point I can see him getting in the goals. Powell started to get Charlton playing at the end of last season and if Sordell can hit the ground running, then they could both surprise a few people.
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Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August Doncaster DNB v Blackpool @ 1.80 Ladbrokes This seems a decent enough price on Donny v an unfancied Blackpool side. I don't rate Ince as a manager and with the lack of finances he really does have a tough job here. The best news of their season is that Tom Ince looks to be staying. But having played in the under 21's tournament pre season you have to wonder how fresh he is going to be. Matt Phillips is also ruled out injured from this match. When you compare the price of Bournemouth v Charlton to that of Doncaster in this match, I just don't see that there should be such a difference. Ince hasn't had much time to mould his new players and side together where as Donny should come in with confidence with a well tuned system already in place. As such I will be siding with the home side.
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Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August Middlesbrough + 0 (AH) v Leicester @ 2.025 Bet 365 (3 Points) im still not fully convinced by Leicester and I can't be making them favourites away at Boro n the first game of the season. After a good start last season, Boro fell to pieces and I think they will have been glad of the break and the chance to regroup in pre season. With the home advantage and a fresh start, the value looks on the home side here.
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Re: Championship - 3rd - 4th August Bournemouth v Charlton +0.25 @ 2.00 Bet365 (3 Points) Bournemouth had a fantastic season under Howe last year and as such they are being given plenty of respect in the championship. Charlton looked very ropey at times last season but they did start to put together some decent form at the end of the campaign. I was initially worrying about how light they looked up front but with the signings of Sordell and Church they now suddenly look a decent prospect. Ultimately it is too early to see how Bournemuth will do this season and in turn I think they probably look a bit short in their first match in the championship.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Relegation To Be Relegated: Birmingham @ 10.00 Skybet (1 Point) This price just looks too big considering the position brum are in. They've lost some of their better players and have been replacing them with loans and lower league signings. Clarke may have pulled a few rabbits out of a hat but that remains to be seen. I don't particularly rate him as a manager and potentially Brum could be in real danger this season. I'm not massively saying that they are going to go down. But I think some of the clubs below them in the betting are being under estimated and the likes of Barnsley, Huddersfield and Milwall all look better prospects to me. In view of this, Birmingham look a good speculative value bet.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Winner Top Goalscorer: Ulloa @17.00 Coral (2 Points) Having signed in January 2013, Ulloa scored 9 goals in 17 games. Not bad for a player coming from Spain to hit the ground running like that in a new league like the championship. I've already stated that I think Brighton are being under rated and what we know about them is that they enjoy plenty of possession and will create chances. With a proper pre season behind him and his first full season in England, I think Ulloa could suddenly become hot property and expect to see him firing in plenty of goals.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Winner Winner: Brighton @ 17.00 Bet365 (1 Point) This seasons league looks tougher to call than ever and realistically, anyone from 8/9 clubs could win this. Initially Reading were my big fancy and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win it. But their price has fallen enough to put me off them. I can't back anyone below 10's to win the championship which also rules out QPR. You've then got. A large pack close together with Watford, Forest, Wigan, Bolton and Leicester who all have chances but who are all shorter than Brighton. Its worth noting that Brighton picked up more points in the champ than anyone else during 2013. It's no coincidence that this is when Ulloa signed as they had been desperate for a decent striker. Since the sesaon and Poyet finished though, the Seagulls seem to be unfancied and have slipped under the radar. Yes they have a new manager and have lost Bridge but they've made a couple of steady if unspectacular signings to what was already a very good side. I wasn't looking to back Brighton initially but they came close last season and their second half of the season form was solid. If their new manager can start the season how they finished the last one the Seagulls could be the value pick here.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Relegation I agree that Milwall don't scream value for relegation. It's very early still yet but Morison is a very good signing and if they get a few more decent additions they should be ok. Birmingham and Blackpool are two who could really struggle as they seem unwilling to spend any money and they are losing their best players. I will be leaving it a few weeks yet untill I come to any firm conclusions though.
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Re: Championship 2013/14 > Winner My first thoughts on this one are that Reading look the most well placed to win the league @ 12.00. They are different to many clubs who come down in that I don't expect them to lose many key players. In Robson Kanu, Kebe, mcanuff and Mcleary they have pleny of creative threat and with a good striker or two joining, they look very well placed. Alex Pearce at the back has gone but Mariappa is a decent centre half, they have a good keeper in Mcarthy and Bridge is a good addition at left back after a good season for Brighton. Theyve got a manager who has been here and done it before by winning promotion and with the parachute payments and a wealthy board, they look a solid bet. I've seen they are rumoured to be after Hooper from Celtic for about 7m. Now they probably won't get him but if they are prepared to fork out on a goal scorer then they are going to be a very good outfit. Traditionally they are very strong at home and at this early stage, I can't see them finishing outside the top 3. A lot of relegated clubs can perform poorly but thats usually when they have had a lot of upheaval and problems behind the scenes. I don't see either of these problems with Reading who are a well run outfit and have already started their recruitment process.
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Re: Antepost > Premier League Relegation Far too early to tell what the situation will be with Stoke yet. A lot of players have been released and other key players such as begovc, Nzonzi, crouch/jones could be moving on. If we are prepared to spend decent cash on new additions we should be ok. If we only to try to replace them on the cheap it could be a disaster. Either way, the current price represents zero value and isn't worth taking IMHO. West Brom could be the value choice as they will really struggle to replace Lukaku. It's far too early for me to get involved on anything at the moment though.
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Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Lay Wigan @ 1.83 Betfair (3 Points) So many people seem to be taking it for granted that Wigan will win tonight. With the pressure really on, I don't see it that way. Wigan and Swansea are similar type sides but over the course of the season, the Swans have proven to be more the rounded team who can be very difficult to beat.Yes they have nothing to play for as such but Laudrup will be wanting to finish as high up the table as possible. When you really need 3 points like Wigan do it can create nerves and Swansea have the advantage of avoiding this. Uktimately, you've got to play the odds and to my mind Wigan shouldn't be under evens and as such I'm happy to lay them.
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Re: Antepost > Championship > 2012-13 Some excellent work in here with Cardiff as champions and Hull to be promoted great calls:clap Absolute, top quality work jase, Dasphantom and kevshat.
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Re: Aston Villa v Sunderland > Mon 29th April Over. 2.5 Goals @ 2.08 Betfair (3 points) 8 out of Villa's last 10 games have gone over 2.5 goals and at odds against, I'm happy to side with the overs again here. I wouldn't call it a must win game for these 2 sides but make no mistake, they will be desperate for the 3 points which would go a long way to securing safety for either side. Villa usually look capable of scoring but remain vulnerable at the back. If Villa concede then it should really open the game up and they will really have to go for it. Sunderland are traditionally a defensive side but one if the main things Di Canio has emphasised since joining is for the need to get players in the box. If they do that tonight I think they will breach Villas defence. He's not short on self confidence Di Canio and there's no doubt in my mind that he's coming to win this game. If the mackems do indeed have a go, I can see this developing into an a game with goals in it.
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Re: Everton v Queens Park Rangers > Sat 13th April Lay Everton @ 1.51 Everton Betfair I just think the price on Everton is a bit too short here. QPR probably are down now though they still have a mathematical chance. They have improved and Remy looks like a top striker. I think it will be a tight game and the QPR are capable of grinding out a point. There is of course a danger that the players heads of dropped but at 1.51 I'm happy to oppose the Tofees.
Championship > 16th - 17th August
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: Championship > 16th - 17th August Reading +0 (AH) v Watford @ 1.825 Bet365 (3 Points) Two teams here who are serious contendenders for promotion. Yes Watford are a good side but I think people are getting a little carried away with their great start and thumping 6-1 win last week. It doesn't mean they are going to be steam rolling every one each week and away at Reading is one of the toughest matches they will have all season. The Hornets are looking very good attacking wise but I'm never quite convinced by Zolas defences. The Royals are pretty strong at the back and they have enough attacking quality to cause the Watford defence some real problems. Ultimately this will be a tightish game but with the home advantage I think there is some value on Reading. Watford look a top side but this is the championship and they are going to lose games along the way. This Reading side look more than capable of taking 3 points here and with the draw cover they are worth a punt.