MJT

Expecting a very close match and if Medvedev can play anywhere close to his level against Alcaraz then he has a great shot of an upset. For me Djokovic is way too short so based on that I will be having a play on Medvedev just down to the value as he should not be this big. He has proven in the past he can beat Novak and I actually think he matches up better against him then he does against Alcaraz. Medvedev to win @ 3.10 William Hill Bet builder @ 1.90 Bet365 Both Players to win a set Medvedev most aces & most double faults Medvedev 5+ double faults Djokovic 2+ double faults

Congrats @Swami@Simeon Borisof@timovk. That was a breathtaking display from Medvedev which I just didn't think he would be able to produce in the match up against Alcaraz. Probably the best match I have ever seen him play. Really hope he can bring that same level in the final against Djokovic as he would have a great of winning his 2nd US Open.

Djokovic -1.5 Sets x Alcaraz -1.5 Sets – Double @ 1.91 Pinnacle (NB) In the other semi final Djokovic is the overwhelming favourite and he should win in straight sets but the odds are low. Playing it a little safe here as I do feel both players will most likely win in straight sets but will opt for the -1.5 set handicap just in case either has a drop in level. It may take Djokovic a few games to get a read on the Shelton serve as they have not played before. Eventually though you do expect him to work it out given he is the best returner of all time. With Alcaraz I have highlighted my thoughts on him winning in my other selection. Medvedev would have to drastically change tactics to have a chance & even then it may not be enough. Some prop bets: Shelton to have 7 double faults or more @ 1.83 Boylesports Shelton -3.5 Double Fault Handicap x Medvedev -2.5 Double Fault Handicap Double @ 4.41 Paddy Power (long shot) Semi finals Bet builder @ 1.875 Bet365: Shelton Most DF Shelton 5+ DF Djokovic 1+ DF Shelton 5+ Aces Djokovic 3+ Aces Medvedev 5+ DF Alcaraz 1+ DF Best of luck all

Alcaraz -5.5 Games vs Medvedev @ 1.91 Bet365 (NAP) I believe this is a terrible match up for Medvedev. He managed to get past Rublev in straight sets despite being a break down in all 3 sets. He struggled regularly on serve being broken 5 times. Both matches this season have been won comfortably by Alcaraz. The conditions in New York may suit Medvedev a little more compared to Indian Wells & Wimbledon but if he sticks with the same tactics he used in those matches there will only be one winner. On both occasions Medvedev opted to sit way, way back on serves. This allowed Alcaraz to continually either come to the net or use drop shots & Medvedev had no answer. I expected to see something different from him when the two met at Wimbledon but if anything he stood even further back! He may well change things up but is he able or want to? Some players have certain styles of play & either can’t or choose not to deviate from this. For me Medvedev simply has to change his style in this. He just can’t beat Alcaraz with those tactics bar a complete off day from Carlos. Another big issue is the Medvedev 2nd serve. A great indicator for me as to how well someone is playing is how well the 2nd serve is performing. Not only has he been serving an awful lot of double faults his winning % on 2nd serves has been poor. He won just 29% against Rublev & 41% in both of his matches before that. If you compare those stats to Alcaraz who won 57% against Zverev, 60% against Arnaldi & 70% vs Evans. This is further shown by both matches played between them this year. At Wimbledon Medvedev 30% compared to 57% for Alcaraz. Indian Wells was 41% to 58% in Alcaraz’s favour. Medvedev will have to serve incredibly well with a high 1st serve % way above 60% to stand any chance of an upset. This is the evening match so conditions will not be as hot but still very humid. Medvedev has been complaining about the heat so this will not help his cause. Based on how the 2 matches between these players went this year I simply have to back Alcaraz to reach another US Open final. It would have to either take something very special from Medvedev or a complete off day from Alcaraz, neither of which I see happening.

Like @CzechPunter no plays from me today either. Both matches extremely difficult to call and could really go any way in terms of both the result and total games. Think the lines are set about right. I would lean on Sabalenka -3.5 games but the odds are tight. She completely outplayed Keys at Wimbledon but both players have been playing so well to this point. In the other I think Gauff will edge it but I just worry about her nerves if the match is close. Muchova didn’t start that well but has been improving in each game. Will just be a watch from me tonight.

I think the odds are mainly based on the 2 matches this year which were very comfortable. Medvedev tried the exact same tactics in both, standing miles behind the baseline allowing Alcaraz to hit his out wide serve and then either come to the net or play a drop shot as he's so far back. I thought after the first match in Indian Wells that Medvedev would try something different at Wimbledon but he stuck with the same plan & hoped for a different outcome. I find it difficult to back Medvedev based on this because if he does the same again then Alcaraz will likely cruise to another win. Hoping for a good match & fingers crossed Medvedev brings a different approach.

Yeah I fully agree that Keys can blow hot and cold. Just think she has been excellent so far & I would favour her even without the injury concerns based on how both players have played to this point. Will likely be close if Vondrousova is fully healthy but I have my doubts she will be fully recovered so would rather risk the play before the match starts. If Keys starts well and gets an early lead the chance to back her a decent odds will have gone.

Medvedev -3.5 Games vs Rublev @ 1.85 Pinnacle (NB) Expecting Medvedev to come out on top against his good friend again today. He leads the head to head 6-2 which includes two 3-0 set wins in grand slams. Rublev is currently 0-8 in grand slam QFs. The excellent defence of Medvedev is likely to be too good for Rublev. He also doesn't have the variety in his game & will find it difficult to break down Medvedev from the baseline, especially in the conditions. This will likely frustrate Rublev & lead to errors especially off his forehand which has 73 unforced errors in the opening 4 matches. With the hot weather again today I like the chances of the -3.5 games. Even if it went to 5 there is a chance this line hits if Medvedev can win an easier set like he did in his previous round. Over a best of 5 you have to favour the defence & overall better game of Medvedev.

Sabalenka -4.5 Games vs Zheng @ 2.0 Pinnacle (NAP) Will side with Sabalenka once again today. She has been brilliant all tournament, hitting the ball so well & most importantly serving well. Zheng has done very well but this is a big step up from opponents she has faced so far. Jabeur has not played well all tournament. Other than that she has beaten 2 clay courters (struggled massively to beat Bronzetti in 3 sets) & a declining erratic Kanepi in 3. Over this summer she did push Swiatek to 3 sets but she has also not been at her best in recent months. Interestingly Zheng has lost to Samsonova & Keys since August & these two are probably the closest likeness to Sabalenka in terms of game style with the power & good serve. The biggest issue for Zheng in this match is likely to be her 2nd serves. If she continues to have a 1st serve % close to 40% then this will allow Sabalenka & her heavy hitting to get on top of the rallies early. When she lost to Keys she had just 38% 1st serves & against Samsonova 53% but winning only 26% of 2nd serves. Unless Zheng can serve much closer or above 60% I think she will massively struggle in this as her 2nd serves will just be sitting up for Sabalenka. She also lost both of those matches I have mentioned in straight sets & by 7 games so I think Sabalenka can repeat that again. Another factor in this one could be nerves. Sabalenka is a grand slam champion along with 5 SF. Zheng is in new territory having never made it this far in a grand slam so she is likely to be feeling it at the start. If Sabalenka can get on top early it could be one way traffic. Keys to beat Vondrousova @ 1.82 Pinnacle Another player who has been playing incredibly well is Madison Keys & for me this match is completely on her racquet. She has been serving so well, holding close to 95% & only being broken on 2 occasions in her first 4 matches. However, Vondrousova will be the best returner she has faced so far. The biggest concern for Vondrousova is not only trying to break Keys but how will her injured elbow hold up? She wasn't 100% in her previous match & was seen with ice on her elbow afterwards in tears before pulling out of her doubles match. This is her left serving arm so far from ideal. If she is not able to serve at a high level this will allow Keys plenty of chances & then breaking back is going to be an issue. I try to avoid bookies that don't void retirements but in this case I will use one that only voids if the 1st set is not complete. If Vondrousova is not right I sense she will give it a go & then if she loses the 1st set easily may then retire to save herself from further injury. If she has recovered then this match will be close but I would still give Keys the edge given her ability to find cheap points on her serve. Will post my plays for the 2 men's matches shortly.

Yeah I thought Ostapenko would struggle in the heat but not quite as much as that! Only 38% 1st serves but only 2 doubles. Not helped by Ostapenko only serving 7 games because of how easily she was beat. I did look at the Gauff -3.5 but was put off by how well Ostapenko played against Swiatek and also thought the occasion may get to Gauff so decided to stay away and go with the doubles instead.

No problem at all @Duffyduck74. NAP basically means my favourite bet of the day and NB stands for Next Best.

Gauff vs Ostapenko Before the scheduling was up I thought that Ostapenko would have a great chance in this one but with them playing at 12 noon with the high heat today it certainly now favours Gauff. Ostapenko has struggled in heat in the past & I suspect the same will be the case today. With the sunny & humid conditions along with the crowd support I do feel all of this will get to Ostapenko & cause her to unload on errors including her serve. This is an area she often struggles with & so far she has hit 11, 11, 7 & 3 doubles at the US Open. 2 of those matches were at night & only one of them (Pera hit 7) was close to the time of today's match (not as hot as today). The weather will play a big impact in this for me & I can't imagine Ostapenko will will want to be in long rallies meaning she may well go for more on her 2nd serve. I can see another match where Ostapenko hit's close to or more than 10 double faults. Ostapenko 7 or more Double Faults @ 1.91 Boylesports Ostapenko 8+ Double Faults @ 3.0 Bet365 Tiafoe vs Shelton Expecting this one to be a very serve orientated match. Both players are holding serve over 85% of the time on hard courts over the past 12 months so break opportunities may be at a premium in this one. Shelton has a huge serve which has clocked 149mph this week. So I like the chances of 1 or more tie breaks in this along with the likelihood of 4/5 sets. Shelton is not the best returner & as I do think this will involve close sets I like the aces line for Tiafoe. He has hit 15 in both of his last 2 matches & I like that to continue again. I would lean towards a Tiafoe victory given his experience at this level but Shelton has been playing & serving so well this tournament he may just be on a roll. Over 39.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (NAP) Tiafoe Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.83 Bet365 (NB) Best of luck all

A Sabalenka -1.5 Sets vs D Kasatkina @ 1.84 Unibet (NAP) I fully agree with @CzechPunter. Expecting Sabalenka to completely over power Kasatkina in this one & should win comfortably. She leads the head to head 4-2 with the most recent win coming just a few weeks ago 6-3 6-3. Sabalenka has been hitting so well in this tournament so far & the power difference is huge. The serve of Kasatkina is likely to be punished regularly & her loopy groundstrokes will allow Sabalenka to dictate play. As long as she does not get drawn into crazy amounts of errors this should be a similar scoreline to the recent encounter. Zverev vs Sinner Over 39.5 Games @ 1.95 Unibet (NB) Expecting this to be a long & close battle that could easily go the full distance. On top of that every chance of a tie break so I have to side with the over games in this one as it should be winnable in 4 sets. I would be very surprised if either won in straight sets. D Medvedev -4.5 Games vs A De Minaur @ 1.91 Pinnacle I have backed Medvedev a number of times this tournament & I will stick with him again today. Medvedev is 4-2 in the head to head but has lost the last 2. One of these was just recently in Toronto. However, in that match Medvedev did lead a break in both sets. There are likely to be a lot of long baseline rallies but De Minaur lacks major weapons other than simply trying to outlast his opponent into errors. I trust Medvedev with his superior serve & more powerful game to come out on top over a best of 5 format. Best of luck all

Double @ 1.83 Pinnacle (NAP) Fritz -1.5 sets vs Stricker x Tiafoe -1.5 Sets vs Hijikata Hijikata Under 9.5 Aces vs Tiafoe @ 1.83 Bet365 Hijikata is not known as a big server & even if this goes to 4 sets I think he may struggle to hit this line. I do however think that Tiafoe wins either in straight or 3-1.

My plays from the US Open today: Acca @ 2.11 Pinnacle (NAP) Alcaraz -1.5 Sets x Medvedev -1.5 Sets x Sabalenka -1.5 Sets x Kasatkina +1.5 Sets I would be shocked if Alcaraz or Medvedev dropped more than a set and both should really be winning in straights. Sabalenka has looked very good so far and meets a player she beat 6-0 6-2 at the same tournament last year. Not expecting such an easy win but should still win 2-0. Kasatkina faces Minnen who has done very well to get to this stage but Kasatkina is just simply the better overall player. I would be shocked if she does not win at least a set. Daniil Medvedev 3-0 @ 1.80 William Hill (NB) Baez has now won 12 matches in a row but this should be the end of the line. On clay he may have the chance of an upset but on a hard court Medvedev should win this one comfortably. Until recent weeks the results for Baez on hard courts were pretty grim reading. This year he has lost to Garin 7-6 6-3 in Miami, 6-1 6-2 to Fritz in Indian Wells, 6-4 6-4 6-4 to Kubler at the Aussie Open, 7-6 6-1 to Shelton & in 3 sets to Martinez. Overall Baez has won just 13/37 matches on hard courts & 7 of those have come in the last 2 weeks. He now faces a player who loves the surface and has an impressive 75% win record winning 252/335 matches on hard courts. At 1.80 there is just about enough value for me on this to make a play. Samsonova vs Keys Over 22 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle Over 10.5 Games 1st set @ 3.70 Pinnacle I'm expecting this to be a very close match. Wouldn't at all be surprised with a 7-5/7-6 set scoreline meaning this could be won in a straight sets win. However, I do feel there is every chance this goes long. They have played each other twice before with both going to 3 sets. The first of these on grass in 2021 went the way of Samsonova 7-6 2-6 7-6 & the most recent going the way of Keys 6-3 3-6 6-3 in 2022. Both players possess big serves & there is sure to be some heavy hitting & winners in this one. Weather is also getting hotter so that will help to speed up the balls and neither of these players are known for wanting long rallies. Other plays today: Carlos Alcaraz Under 18.5 Games @ 2.12 Unibet Jarry vs De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 2.04 Pinnacle