Gary66

Desert Dreamer   Newmarket 13:15   66/1 EW @ BET365

Congratulations to the competition winner @Sugardaddyken who recorded a commendable profit of 63 points.
Well done to @Soi Bongkotand @roy keanefor finishing 2nd and 3rd.
Could the prize winners please PM me pay-pal details.
Not much of a break before the next competition, PUNCHESTOWN on the 27th April.

1515 Lingfield
8. Devizes WIN 9/2 Bet365

The big winners keep rolling in. @Gary66 returns to the top with fortuitous winner SCORPO at 50/1.

Non runner so 3-47 sedg scorpo 50/1 e/w 365

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 8th to Saturday 10th April.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

The Brigadier’s Flat 2021 20 to follow   EILEENDOVER 4 year old filly (Pam Sly) unraced   A left field selection as she’s yet to run under flat rules. She has however run three times in National Hunt Flat Races, winning all three. By top miler Canford Cliffs and a grand daughter of Pam Sly’s 1000 Guineas 2006 winner Speciosa she has looked very special so far in winning at Huntingdon over 1m 5 1/2f by 29 lengths, Wetherby over 1m 4 1/2f by 16 lengths and a 2 mile listed mares only bumper at Market Rasen by a comfortable 6 1/2 lengths. Back in third that day was Willie Mullin’s Grangee who went on to win at the Dublin Festival whilst in fourth was subsequent  listed hurdle winner Dragon Bones giving the form plenty of substance. She’s won on ground varying from good to heavy and after taking up her engagement in the Aintree mares bumper will be campaigned on the flat although her trainer is struggling to find ideal races to race her in. She could be the type for a big race handicap at the backend like the Ebor at York.   MISS FINLAND 3 year old filly (John & Thady Gosden) 51   A filly who’s always worked well at home and was a tad disappointing on her racecourse debut on the all weather at Newcastle in November, a track incidentally where Gosden has introduced some of his equine stars over the years including Enable and Palace Pier. She could only finish 5th on that occasion but turned the tables on the third that day Water Iris when accounting for that rival a month later in the mist at Chelmsford where Rab Havlin was cruising a furlong and a half out but had to get serious with Terebellum’s half sister to eventually win by just a head. That form may not amount to much but the way she works at Clarehaven Stables at Newmarket suggests she’s a fair bit better than that and is unlikely  to be given too high a handicap mark if master trainer Gosden went down that route en route to pattern company.   DUTY OF CARE 3 year old colt (Sir Michael Stoute) 31   A Kingman half brother to Stoute’s top class Breeders Cup Mile winner Expert Eye. A massive horse who wasn’t suited by the bends of Kempton on his racecourse debut in early December but was still well supported and ran with distinct promise to finish third to Papas Dream. According to Racing Post ratings he improved some 23lb for his second outing only 12 days later on a much more suitable track at Newcastle when using his long stride to excellent effect to keep on and beat a Varian horse, the pair of them pulling clear of the field. The 4th and 6th have come out and won since giving the form some substance. Owned by the recently departed Khalid Abdullah he looks one to follow and will hopefully make his mark in Group company before long utilising the giant stride he has. He’s only run at 7f but will have no trouble staying a mile and could easily take in a 2000 Guineas trial prior to a tilt at the first classic at Newmarket in May.   EL DRAMA 3yo colt (Roger Varian) 13   Entered in the Derby this 425,000 guns yearling Lope De Vega colt was backed off the boards when winning his only start at Doncaster on his racecourse debut in October on soft ground.  Andrea Atzeni was always in control  just pushing him out to win by a comfortable 1/2 length from Colonel Faulkner and Kaheall who have both won since as has the fourth (in Abu Dhabi). Again well backed on his re-appearance in a listed contest at Lingfield over 7f in which turned into a bit of a sprint which blatantly didn’t suit him. He’ll be much better on a more conventional track and more importantly when stepped up in trip. Don’t give up on him after that reversal. He’s a half brother to six winners including Oaks and Irish Oaks third Volume and his trainer Roger Varian suggested after his win that he may well be a group horse. His breeding suggests its middle distances in time which will bring the best out of this good looking colt.   SUMMERS KNIGHT  3yo gelding  (Sir Mark Prescott) 6855   A typical Sir Mark Prescott handicap job? This son of Camelot has had four runs over 7 furlongs in the space of 42 days late last Summer all at monster prices with the nearest he got to the winner was when beaten 8 1/2 lengths on his final start. A 40,000k yearling he’s a half brother to four winners, two who won up to as far as 2m 4f. His dam, Summers Eve was group placed at 9f and is a full sister to Ascot Gold Cup winner Papineau. A pedigree that screams stamina. He’s already been allotted a handicap mark of only 64 and expect him to start out over 10/12 furlongs and possibly run up a sequence of victories as he moves up in distance.   SEA EMPRESS 3yo filly (William Haggas) 1   Had just the one run as a two year old at the backend of the season when going to Newcastle for a 1 mile maiden and despite falling out of the stalls and running green picked up nicely and went clear with the Roger Varian favourite Teona to beat that one by a length. Teona re-appeared three weeks later and bolted up by 9 lengths herself to give the form a massive boost (the 7th has also won since). She also makes my 20 to follow. By Sea The Stars out of a 8.6f AW winner making her a sister to a 9.4f winner she should stay at least 10 furlongs and has an Irish Oaks entry already. She looks smart and her trainer does so well with her type that she’s a must have for any ‘to follow’ list.   TEONA 3yo filly (Roger Varian) 21   Runner up to another of my 20 to follow Sea Empress on her debut at Newcastle over 1 mile, she returned there three weeks later to comfortably open her account by 9 lengths over 2 furlongs further in the style of a very smart horse - cruising through the race and quickly putting the race to bed and winning hard held. The runner up that day has won since to give the form some substance. By Sea The Stars and out of a dam who won as far as 1 1/2 miles she looks all about stamina and expect her to be taking in an Oaks trial (already has an Irish Oaks entry)   POLLING DAY 3yo colt (John & Thady Gosden) 1   A 625,000 gns purchase from The Tattersalls Book 1 October yearlings sale he’ll race in the colours of Godolphin and has by all accounts been showing up very nicely on the Newmarket gallops this Spring. He’s by Derby winner Sea The Stars out of a Whipper mare called Pollyanna who was smart herself on the track in France when with John Hammond. He’s already been given a Epsom Derby entry (one of 10 from that yard) and was impressive on his debut on the polytrack at Lingfield in mid March when pushed out to go clear from a newcomer from the Charlie Appleby yard. That was a highly promising debut win and he has to be followed wherever he goes.   OCEAN ROAD 3yo filly (Hugo Palmer) 21   Showed plenty of promise on her racecourse debut at Nottingham in October when chasing home the promising Stoute filly Noon Star on soft ground. She went one better 7 weeks later when easily winning on the polytrack at Lingfield from the 73 rated Lochnaver. She’s owned by Qatar Racing and was selected recently by their retained jockey Oisin Murphy as one to follow. She’s by Australia and a half sister to 5 winners including the the smart Wigmore Hall, a grade one winner in Canada. She’s only run over a mile in her two outings but is bred to need middle distances and should improve as she moves up in trip.   SANTA BARBARA 3yo filly (Aidan O’Brien) 1   Bred in the purple being by Camelot out of an unraced Danehill mare making her a half sister to 4 winners including Irish Oaks winner Iridessa and Breeders Cup mile winner Order Of Australia she showed a good turn of foot when winning a Curragh maiden under Seamie Heffernan in September. She was very green that day and carried her head quite high but the vibes emanating from Ballydoyle this week have been very positive with a ATR stable tour of trainer Aidan O’Brien stating the following:- “She’s done unbelievably well in physical terms over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt. She goes through her work unbelievably well. She shows loads of speed and always worked with an awful lot of class. Whether we start her in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown or go straight to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, we haven’t decided yet. We won’t over-race her, we’ll keep her runs to a minimum if we can, but she shows an unbelievable amount of class at home. In terms of her stamina, she’s by Camelot, so that will give her a chance to stay a mile-and-a-quarter or maybe further, but she does show a lot of pace. She looked very pacey on her debut and she does that at home all the time. She just toys with horses in her work. We’re very excited by her” High praise indeed and she has been backed this week into favouritism for the 1000 gns.   ONE RULER  3yo colt (Charlie Appleby) 21312   Raced 5 times as a 2 year old, winning a decent Sandown maiden and the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket in October on soft ground. He ended the season by finishing runner up to Mac Swiney in the Vertem Futurity Trophy (Racing Post Trophy in old money!) again on very soft ground. By Dubawi out of a Shamardal mare who won over a mile, this Godolphin colt has already shown top class form and is by all accounts working very well. He was taken on an away day to Chelmsford recently and worked very well. He holds entries in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas plus the Irish Derby. The English 2000 is the proposed early season target, I’m led to believe with a possible tilt at the Epsom Derby to follow. He’ll need to be supplemented for that obviously.   JOHN LEEPER 3yo colt (Ed Dunlop) 4   One of the best bred horses in training being by Frankel out of 6 time group 1 winner (including English, Irish Oaks and the Hong Kong Cup) Snow Fairy who Ed Dunlop trained himself. This is her third foal with the other two hardly setting the world alight although Virgin Snow was a winner and Group 3 placed. Named after Ed’s illustrious father John who sadly passed in 2018 you do get the possible feeling that they were waiting for a talented one to name after the great man who trained a staggering 74 group one races (including 10 classics)from his base at Arundel in Sussex. He did see the racecourse once as a two year old when finishing 4th in a backend Doncaster maiden, having been slowly away and not getting the clearest of runs but running on at the death to be beaten 3 1/4L. That wasn’t the strongest of maidens although the 3rd, 5th and 8th have won since. Although possibly his English and Irish Derby entries are flying too high he should be up to winning his maiden and progressing throughout the season as he steps up in distance more in relation to his breeding.   POTAPOVA 3yo filly (Sir Michael Stoute) 1   Sir Michael Stoute appears to have a decent filly on his hands here in this Invincible Spirit full sister to AW winner Panova and half sister to 5 winners including the useful pair Davydenko and Marenko. She made her racecourse debut when a not unfancied 5/1 chance at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs in November when spread eagling her field, coasting home to win by 6 1/2L. She has no classic entries but screams group class and this Cheveley Park Stud owned filly is without doubt one to follow with her best trip likely to be around a mile with the ability to stay two furlongs further.   TARNAWA 5 year old mare (Dermot Weld) 322/1310119/1111   Much improved as a 4 year old winning all four of her outings. She wasn’t seen till August but quickly made up for lost time by winning the Group 1 Prix Vermeille over 12f and then surprisingly dropped down to 10f to win the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera on Arc De Triomphe day at Longchamp. I feel she would of gone pretty close to winning the Arc had she been given a chance and this years Arc has been mooted as her target this season. She went on from Longchamp to win the Breeders Cup Turf at Keeneland over 12f beating the super mare Magical, giving her trainer Dermot Weld his first Breeders Cup success. She’s won group ones on heavy and firm ground and seems to be getting better with age. We may not see her till the Summer at the earliest but the 10/1 about her winning this season’s Arc looks terrific value even with Aidan O’Brien’s Love in her way.   NOON STAR 3 year old filly (Sir Michael Stoute) 31   Bred in the purple being by Galileo out of that super consistent group one winning mare Midday who was trained by Sir Henry Cecil and was runner up to Sariska in the Epsom Oaks. She’s a full sister to Midterm and closely related to Mori and Midi who both won races for Sir Michael who knows this family so well. She made her debut at Salisbury in September when relatively easy to back and was looking like she might be tailed off at one point until the penny dropped and she ran on to some effect finishing off in third place beaten just under 6L with both the horses that finished ahead of her that day winning since. She showed the benefit of that run when winning a backend Nottingham maiden for fillies in good style on soft ground. The runner up Ocean Road went onto win at Lingfield and also makes it into The Brigadier’s 20 to follow.  Her breeding suggests we won’t see the best of her until tackling middle distances and she could easily turn in to a lively Epsom Oaks contender.   OCEAN WIND 5 year old horse (Roger Teal) 3111-2   Still an entire, this bay Teofilio horse is lightly raced under both codes and can make a splash this season in some of the better long distance handicaps and hopefully pattern company. A decent bumper horse who won at Huntingdon and Newbury, he ran his best race in that sphere when 6th beaten 11L in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper won by Ferny Hollow with Appreciate It back in silver position.  Thought too good to continue his career over hurdles he was switched to the flat game and quickly ran up a hat trick of wins including a very easy win in the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket. Trainer Roger Teal made an unfortunate error in not realising that he had to run 4 times to qualify for the big handicap for which he was being trained for and as such missed the race frustrating all those who had taken big prices about him (myself including!). He was instead seen in a 0-105 handicap at Doncaster on soft ground in October where he came late to win by a cosy 1/2 length. Following a 106 day break he turned up in a fast track qualifier at Kempton on the all weather in February where he split the 114 rated Prince Of Arran and 110 Rainbow Dreamer in a close finish. He’s been left on his mark of 104 and that looks very workable. It will be interesting to see if he gets an entry in the Chester Cup. He goes on any ground and stays extremely well and I expect him to have a fruitful season for his shrewd trainer.   UNCLE BRYN 3 year old colt (John & Thady Gosden) 11   Named after Rob Brydon’s character in the TV comedy Gavin And Stacey this nicely bred Sea The Stars colt was unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile, a Kempton maiden in September when showing a decent turn of foot to win by 3L and landing the odds when following up in November in a weak contest at Wolverhampton. The form may not amount to much but he’s won both his starts in good style and his official mark of 92 may well under estimate him. His latest win was over just short of 10f and I wouldn’t expect him to stay much further on breeding, being a a half brother to his owners Group 3 winner Boomer. Although he has been given a speculative Derby entry for which he’s a top priced 25/1 poke with Bet365. He’s owned by Betfair co founder Andrew Black and runs in his stud’s name of Chasemore Farm. Black has been instrumental with Michael Owen in setting up the Tom Dascombe yard in Cheshire and this is his first horse with John and Thady   THALER 3 year old colt (Sir Michael Stoute) unraced   A left field one in that he hasn’t as yet made his racecourse debut. He’ll run at Doncaster on Sunday and although like many of Sir Michael Stoute’s will improve for the run he should run a nice race as his work at Newmarket this Spring has been good. He does have a slight aversion to the starting stalls so will be taking a ticket and going in last. Hopefully this will be something that will he will improve with over time. By Dubawi out of Timepiece who was trained by Sir Henry Cecil and won the Gp 1 Falmouth Stakes making him a full brother to Tacitly (a winner in training with Roger Charlton). As his breeding suggests he’s owned by Juddmonte following the sad death of Prince Khalid Abdullah. He would be one to follow as he gains experience and hopefully after winning his maiden can progress through the handicap ranks in typical Sir Michael style.   BELLOCCIO 3 year old colt (David Menuisier) 11   A very under rated trainer, David Menuisier who learnt his trade as assistant to the retired great Criquette Head-Maarek in France is set for a good season at his base in Pulborough in West Sussex following his best ever season last season with 18 winners with the classy staying Group 1 winning filly Wonderful Tonight being the flag bearer. Bellocicio made a winning debut at Salisbury in October when backed at big odds and came late and fast on dead ground to lead on the line. He progressed from there to win a listed contest back in David’s homeland at Toulouse when going off favourite. He was withdrawn on the day of the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud due to the heavy ground and although he is thought to be best with some cut in the ground he wouldn’t want it bottomless. He’s by Belardo from his first crop as a stallion (Belardo ended up the leading freshman sire of 2020) out of a Mastercraftsman dam and following two wins at a mile as a juvenile will stay at least 10f this season. He holds a 2000 Gns but I’m reliably led to believe that he’s been aimed at the French Derby.   ALDAARY 3 year old gelding (William Haggas) 11   The ground is very much the key to this unbeaten Territories gelding housed at Newmarket in the care of William Haggas, owned by the late Hamdan Al Maktoum. He’s a half brother to five winners at up to a mile. Not that breeding is anything this chestnut is interested in having had the cruelest cut of them all! Not seen till the Autumn when a comfortable winner over 6f at Yarmouth on soft ground and then following up under a penalty a fortnight later on even softer ground at Leicester again over 6f when landing the odds in easy style. Jim Crowley rode him to both his victories and stated after Leicester that he has a relaxed way of doing things and will have no problem staying a mile next year. The handicapper has allotted him a handicap mark of 93 and expect to see him out early if the ground is soft in a handicap with his most productive time of the year being in the Autumn when the mud is flying. He’s an exciting horse.            

I saw the same thing and did a bit ew yesterday, only because my online bookie was still offering 30/1, whilst everywhere else was 18s and 20s

Discorama ive noticed a little gamble would not rule out weighted very well with cloth cap on form linked with conditional (rip) now 18/1 best priced  best of luck gaz

I'm waiting to see what bet365 offer first...

they have regularly done either bet 1, get stakes back as a free bet (to then use on another in shortlist, so 2 for the price of 1);
their other one was bet 1, get the 50% of stake refunded as cash - so every 2 bets gave me the money to cover another.

I'd rather bet 10 for the price of 5 or 6 than play for 6th/7th/8th but guess it's down to personal preference.

I think anybody who bets at SP these days doesn't really understand betting. There are so many other options available compared to when I first started betting.

According to the main Trends and Stats for the National, there are 5 horses that fit the bill.
I have only gone off trends which indicate over 80% or in fractions 9/11.
The trends I followed were.....
9/11 past winners carried 10st 6lb- 11st 6lb
10/11 past winners had had at least 1 previous run at Aintree
10/11 past winners had at least 1 win over 3m+
9/11 past winners had run 8 or more times over 3m+
11/11 past winners had at least 10 runs over fences
10/11 past winners had at least 3 wins over fences
10/11 past winners had at least 7 previous runs over hurdles
10/11 past winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
9/11 previous winners rated 148-160
11/11 previous winners had at least 3 runs that season
 
Taking Risks
Magic of Light
Potters Corner
Ballyoptic
Alpha Des Obeaux
All qualify.
 
I have fancied Cloth Cap for some time now, but that horse fails on 4 of the above trends!!
I have backed 3 Ante Post. Cloth Cap/ Burrows Saint/ TakingRisks.
I have no particular strong feelings on the "Trend " horses, but found it interesting.

A tough day but @Gary66makes it 6 out of 6 with another winner. Best selection of the day is @YSMwith 9/1 winner Dragons Will Rise.

4-00 pony dexter belle 4/5 Betfair 

Well in @Gary66, fantastic start! Smashing it ?

Another profitable day led by @Zilzalianwith a 10/1 winner. Last month's winner @Gary66has had a fantastic start to this new month, a 14/1 winner making it 5 out of 5.

3-25 Redcar embour 14/1 hills e/w

Juicestorm is a good free trends site ....... they have today's Irish National on
Horse Racing Archives - Betting, Trading, Sports Tips And Crypto (juicestorm.com)
 
 

A great website I use is www.thestatsdontlie.com
Although I didn't see the Irish National on it

Trends are a fantastic way to find winners always been of fascination to me the hardest thing to get started is actually finding the big race trends,I to like run wild Fred  one at a massive price for a place  is snugsborough benny  not trends related though best of luck gaz

Trends are a fantastic way to find winners always been of fascination to me the hardest thing to get started is actually finding the big race trends,I to like run wild Fred  one at a massive price for a place  is snugsborough benny  not trends related though best of luck gaz

I am always intrigued by Trends relating to big races.
My 2 against the field, for some time now, have been The Big Dog and Run Wild Fred and I have already backed them.
However there are very strong trends in this race, to which neither adhere to.
1) 16 of 17 past winners have carried 10st 13lb or less
2)16 of 17 past winners have raced over the past 8 weeks
3)16 of 17 past winners have won previously over 3 mile or more.
The only horses who fit the above profile AND have shown form on "Spring" ground are..
Enjoy D'Allen
Jerrysback
Eurobot
All are available around 33/1-40/1
 

Only 8 winners today but there were some crackers in there. @LEE-GRAYS moves to the top with 50/1 winner O'RAHILLY and both @MrJol and @trainmad091find 22/1 shot BRANDY STATION.

4-05 cork botani 10/1 365 e/w

Just like to thank everyone involved,extremely chuffed to win a very difficult competition was on fire first two weeks then couldn’t find a winner at all ,best of luck to all always      Gaz