Gary66

It is my daughter's wedding tomorrow so the next update will be on Sunday

Cheltenham 1.15 The first of four ITV races is this 2M class 2 handicap chase where the front running Haddex Des Obeaux looks the the one they all have to beat but has been priced accordingly and it maybe worth looking for some each way value with the locally trained Before Midnight. The oldest in the field at ten years of age he won this race for Sam Thomas two years ago when making all by 6L and can race today off of a mark a pound lower plus another 7lb off for the conditional jockey Ben Sutton who’s won seven of his 52 rides in his short career so far. He teed up for this with a fourth in a seniors handicap hurdle a fortnight ago and this well handicapped gelding trained by Fergal O’Brien can be competitive here.   BEFORE MIDNIGHT 1 point each way @ 8/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 1.50 This class 2 Masterson Holdings hurdle, run over 2M 87 yards looks a good opportunity for the Paul Nicholls trained Blueking D’Ooux who was turned inside out by a wind operation last season winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot at 50/1 (the biggest priced winner ever for Nicholls) and proved that was no fluke by running well at Aintree in a similarly valuable handicap hurdle going down by 3 3/4L to Punctuation. He’s the highest rated horse in the field by 9lb from his main danger in the Gary Moore trained Spirit D’Aunou but Blueking D’Oroux is a confident selection.   BLUEKING D’OROUX 3 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor   Doncaster 2.10 The feature race of the day on the level is the Kameko Futurity Trophy, the final Group one of the season for the two year olds and this looks a shoot out between the unbeaten Diego Velazquez of Aidan O’Brien’s and the Charlie Appleby trained Ancient Wisdom. Official ratings have the latter a 5lb better horse and as he’s shown he handles soft ground well having impressed when running away with the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago is the pick with William Buick in the saddle. Appleby is having a bit of a purple patch at the moment winning with ten of his last 18 runners at a staggering 56%.   ANCIENT WISDOM 2 points win @ 7/4 bet365   Cheltenham 2.25 A decent field of fourteen line up for this class 2 3M 1F handicap chase which has an open look about it. Neil Mulholland’s eight year old Lord Accord took this last season having teed up for the race with a spin over hurdles and his trainer is taking the same route this season having run him at Warwick in a handicap hurdle at Warwick 23 days ago. He should be spot on for this now and off of just a one pound higher handicap mark can confirm that form with the runner up The Wolf who is rather inconsistent for my liking.   LORD ACCORD 1 point each way @ 6/1 Unibet 1/5th 1234   Doncaster 2.45 Nine have declared for this 6F listed race for two year olds which may go to the form horse Ballymount Boy. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Wathnan Racing owned Camacho colt is dropping back to 6F which is the trip at which he ran his best race this summer when chasing home the smart Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes on very soft ground and a reproduction of that effort should see him home here. He was below par in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last time although he may have found the ground too fast that day. James Doyle takes over from Jason Hart and on ground he handles looks the pick.   BALLYMOUNT BOY 2 points win @ 10/3 888sport   Cheltenham 3.00 A bumper maximum field of twenty go to post for this 3M Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifier which as one would expect has a very open look about it. There are four Irish trained challengers including Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott charges but it’s the Noel Meade trained Bugs Moran that catches the eye. He’s been runner up in a listed handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival following a 464 day layoff and filled the same position at Listowel this autumn under Jack Kennedy and should appreciate this step up to 3M from 2M 4F as a previous winner of the 3m EBF novice handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse festival in 2022. At a big price don’t under estimate Syd Hosie’s handicap debutant Rock My Way who had good early season form here last year and will stay well. He’s worth a small each way saver.   BUGS MORAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5th 12345 ROCK MY WAY 1/2point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 12345   Doncaster 3.20 Five of the eleven runners all met at Catterick over the same trip and ground a week ago with Vintage Clarets coming out the best of the quintet and should go close agin although its the runner up that day Glorious Angel, owned by Nick Bradley Racing that maybe able to turn the tables on the winner on one pound better terms. He goes well on testing ground and in a tight knit contest where stakes should be kept to a minimum is worth an each way bet in a race that is the less appealing of all nine covered by the ITV cameras today.   GLORIOUS ANGEL 1/2 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123  

Ha ha it can go wrong as quick as it goes right I’ve picked lots that have been backed lately fortunately this one came home in front

Are you Hugh Taylor in disguise ?

8-30 wolves tiger beetle 10/1 365 ew

150a art power
33/1 paddy power

Ascot 1.15 The 2M Group 2 Long Distance Cup kicks things off on Champions Day at Ascot where the ground is likely to ride very testing. Trueshan is bidding for a record breaking fourth win in the race and should go well but she’s not been up against one as smart as Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios who looked set to take the staying division apart this season until meeting with a setback earlier in the season. He badly needed his run back from a 344 break when a creditable runner up in the Irish St Leger and with that run behind him looks the bet here under Ryan Moore.   KYPRIOS 2 points win @ 11/8 William Hill   Ascot 1.50 The Group 1 Champions Sprint run over 6F is next up and again we have a warm favourite here in the shape of Ralph Beckett’s Kinross. He was a cosy winner of this last years and with conditions to suit can give Frankie Dettori a farewell winner on his last (possibly!) Champions Day. Mill Stream is two from two on soft ground and in a first time tongue tie can run well each way with an additional place with William Buick in the saddle.   KINROSS 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet Victor MILL STREAM 1/2 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Ascot 2.25 An open looking Group 1 Fillies & Mares Stakes run over 1M 4F has attracted fourteen runners. Many can be given chances but it’s the Aidan O’Brien trained Jackie Oh that takes my eye. Proven on soft/heavy ground with form figures on that terrain reading 121 she appears to be still on the upgrade and ran her best ever race when going down by just a neck in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day. She steps up to 1m 4F for the first time here with her half siblings staying this trip so may even improve for it. One of the other Irish challengers, Above The Curve can also run well for Joseph O’Brien.   JACKIE OH 1 point win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes   Ascot 3.05 Eleven top milers line up for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Paddington must hold an excellent chance although he’s pretty short for a horse who’s actually held on York running by Nashwa. John Gosden’s likeable filly has form in very soft ground and holds a good each way chance although the bet here for me is the French challenger Big Rock. The French have an excellent record in this race over the years winning three of the last 9 renewals. Christopher Head’s three year old has smart form chasing home not only Inspiral at Deauville but also Ace Impact in the French Derby as well as hammering Horizon Dore by 5L on heavy ground. He’s a front runner and although it’ll be tough leading all the way here he looks good each way value. I’m a big fan of Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra but didn’t like his comments in the press this week about her not really been suited by soft ground (despite having good form on a wet surface).   BIG ROCK 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Ascot 3.45 The most valuable race on the card is the 10F Group one Champion Stakes which has attracted nine runners. Likely favourite Horizon Dore looks skinny enough to me for a horse that’s never raced in a Group 1 and my pick here is Roger Varian’s King Of Steel who can give Frankie Dettori a double on the card. Very soft ground shouldn’t worry him and his form this season is as good as anyone’s in the field. Last year’s winner and third Bay Bridge and My Prospero have claims but there is a big outsider I can’t resist a token each way bet on. That’s Aidan O’Brien’s Point Lonsdale who will be ridden by Ryan Moore and is unbeaten in four runs on soft ground. It’s not often you get to back a O’Brien and Moore horse at such a big price and although he may not be good enough he may stay on into a place.   KING OF STEEL 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365 POINT LONSDALE 1/2 point each way @ 28/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Ascot 4.25 A maximum field of twenty for the one mile Balmoral Handicap and as usual it has a very open look about it. Top weight Migration trained by David Menuisier will have to put up a near Group performance to take this but is two from two on heavy ground and goes very well fresh as he showed when winning the Lincoln on his re-appearance at Doncaster back in March. He had a few of today’s opponents behind him that day and despite a 6lb rise in the weights from a middle draw should be very competitive. There are obviously plenty of others that one can make a case for but I can’t resist a small stakes each way saver on George Boughey’s Raadobarg who like Migration is an out and out mudlark who hasn’t won since taking the Irish Lincoln in March 2022 but has kept listed or group company since. He actually ran at this meeting last year but in the Group 1 QE II when finishing eight of 9 (beaten 5 1/2L) at 80/1.   MIGRATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 RAADOBARG 1/4 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345    

The key stat is the draw with those drawn 1 - 11 producing 8 winners out of the last 9 with a profit of 81 points. Those drawn higher have 1 winner from 97 runners and a loss of 70 points. I wouldn't be put off by the going as 5 of the last 9 runnings have been on heavy or soft going.
All 9 winners last ran 14 to 25 days ago with a profit of 99 points.
Only 1 winner from 113 runners has had forecast odds higher the 14/1.
This leaves BOPEDRO at 16/1 (5 places).

Got a real quandary about the Balmoral Handicap which closes the card  .  On the Ascot web site it says under extreme very soft/heavy conditions high numbers are favoured , but it has been several years since this bias can be confirmed as conditions haven`t been that bad .On top of that last years race under softish conditions the whole field went (for some unknown reason) over towards the low drawn side of the course .All the hold up horses were then squashed up on the rail and coudn`t get a run leaving the prominent racers in pole position .Would love some of the jockeys to stay down the high draw side , but believe they will just play follow my leader as usual.........so much so at this moment in time can`t find a bet.....any answers out there ?

Crucis

Another new leader with @White Feather picking 18/1Punchestown winner Dancing Jeremy

4-0 pont golden melody 18/1 Betfair ew

That’s what you call a poor day 😢

OK.  Basically who do I use.  A quick explanation though.  I, with partner, have access to 3 accounts: Bet365, Sky, Betfair.  Basically I trawl around the 3 to see who is offering the best price ..... and/or an alleged added benefit.   Alleged added benefit tends to mainly when there ia a high priced horse and that bookie is offering extra places.  In this case, Sky is the worst of the worst, because they tend to offer lower prices plus hold you to that price; i.e. BOG basically becomes BOG off; a sortof ha ha got yer mate.
Bet365 tends to be the go to, on most days.  Not only do they have BOG, but sometimes a flash better odds moment, against which they still aply BOG (One looks to the Sky with disdain).    SO there you have it.
 
Yes Sir!  This is always my start point, then with partner check Bet365 first if they are first = on the oddschecker precheck.

I think at one time or another I've had accounts with most of the online bookies you are asking advice etc... on / about as well as bet bright now no more .
I feel as a punter month in month out the value is decreasing & as for b.o.g. it used to be available the previous day around 6 months ago with bet365 & boylesports but both now just on the day .
The two online bookies I use the most often are still bet365 for their 8am b.o.g & sky bet for their extra place each way offers & their £5 if you bet £30 ( was £25 ) in week ' free bet ' in which I save these up for when I go racing so it's a ' free ' betting day .
I don't use high street bookmakers anymore as they're more interested in the gaming / slot machine fraternity ( unfortunately ) for whom in my opinion give folks who enjoy a bet on the horses / dogs / football a bad name but the ol' boys who I used to go racing with favour Jennings & Bet Fred as their favourite high street bookies .

It wasn't so long ago that i used to frequent bookies establishments, my local was a Willy Hills as were most in this town, Saturday mornings there used to be a group of us old and young that were regulars we used to be in for a couple of hours early doors for the two early dog meetings 11:00 am Crayford and Monmore if i remember correctly, and to put our horse bets on. Staff were brilliant brewed up no problem, anyone winning would buy the chips (chippy round the corner) for the staff as well we all used to have a good laugh and banter, take the piss and constantly wind each other up about everything and everyone from one built like a brick shit house but had a squeaky voice, another who had a bad stutt stutt stutter, me being a deaf as a door nob, all this disappeared with the smoking ban, one week we were all having a good laugh and pretty soon it was down to, pop in put the days bets on and bugger off. Happy days never to return .

This. 

I have analysed Hugh's selections for this year based on BSP. I have used BSP for 2 reasons. Firstly it is difficult to get on at the prices advised. Secondly I have very few options left with traditional bookmakers and sooner or later all my betting will have to be on the exchanges.
My thought process was that these selections would be overbet and therefore there would be an edge in backing other selections.
In fact this is not the case. The AE of his selections is 1.05. 
I have ignored the EW selections because I assume these will have taken advantage of extra places.
For 2023 there have been 68 wins from 361 runs with a profit of 13.26 points.
For those selections advised between 5/2 and 7/1 there have been 48 wins from 186 runs with a profit of 27.09 points.
I won't get too carried away at this stage, I'll go back a few years and see how this pans out.

Well played to all the prize winners as always

Well played to all the prize winners as always

Well played to all the prize winners as always

Port vale 1.91
wrexham 1.57
gillingham 1.85 
15 treble

Soames 

8-30 new phoenix star 20/1 365 win only

8-30 new phoenix star 20/1 365 win only