Systemight

I doff my cap to you sir!-excellent knowledge. My data does not go back as far as yours,and mine are taken at Betfair S.P so we will always have differing results unfortunately. I have always thought when assessing Course and distance winners,that it's the amount of times a horse has won over the course and distance divided by the times it has RACED over that Course and Distance which is important. For example, a Horse that has won once in 20 runs over C+D At Wolverhampton,should not be rated the same as a horse who has won once over C+D at Wolverhampton- having had just the one run there. Interestingly both Redrosezorro(15/2) and Homer Stokes (10/1) won today at Catterick, the pair of them having won numerous times at that venue in the past. Unfortunately i never backed either...

10/3 Winner (sp 3/1) from two selections highlighted yesterday. One thing that i have learned from my trips to Catterick over the years is that proven winning form at this venue is just about more important here than anywhere else.With that in mind The Dancing Poet looks well worth throwing a few sheckles at in the finale at 17.05.The fact that this gelding has a 41% winning strike rate from 12 runs over today's Course and Distance makes the 6/1 quote looks generous. With a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd-Alafdhal looks worth chancing in the opener(13.38) at the early 7/2.Runner up in his last two starts and 7 times a winner in this class,now might be the time to strike. Monsieur Kodi is down in class after catching the eye when racing down the unfavoured side in the Ayr Bronze Cup last time,so i shall be taking some of the 4/1 available for the 15.55,while the hat trick seeking filly Garifullina looks the pick of the prices at 9/4 for the 16.30-11/4 can be found elsewhere. Prices/Deals quoted are from Betfred at 11.00a.m

1705 Catterick The Dancing Poet (7/1 Hills)

With the weather/ground seeming so unreliable at present,it's best to keep selections and stakes to a minimum for a while. "Seggie" is a strange course,where there are usually more plots going on than on bonfire night.However they never have too many fallers there(particularly the two in the home straight),so any selection at least has a very good chance of staying on it's feet. The only one there for me today is Barron's Land in the last. A Course and distance winner who likes to be up with the pace,he seems to tick all the boxes,and in a tricky 7 runner handicap looks a tad overpriced at the morning quote of 10/3. Over at Ayr the one i like is Musaka in the 16.35. A 10 year old veteran of 117 races means he is fully exposed,but seems to retain his enthusiasm for the game and rarely runs a bad race.A winner 8 times in this class and 15 times over the distance he is no good thing,but at 5/1 (6/1 Bet 365) David O'Meara's gelding should give you a good run for your money.He has certainly been knocking on the door of late.... Prices quoted are Betfred at 11.00 a.m

16.35 Ayr Musaka (6/1 Bet 365)

19.00 Wolverhampton Swinging Eddie (8/1 Hills)

I think you would very quickly go broke if you followed the market movers every day if i am honest,though of course they will come in with regularity. Of the two above mentioned options i would say siding with Market drifters are the way to go.Of course some drift badly and run accordingly and you need to be prepared for that,but don't "steamers" run unaccountably badly on occasions too?.. I read a book once on 10 professional gamblers and their methods,and while they each had their own idea's and assessed things from different angles, all ten had one common denominator that they looked for... Price!!.

15.40 Southwell King David (6/1 Hills)

The very fact that Heavy is in the going description at Both Haydock and Ripon is enough for me to give both those cards a swerve today,while Chelmsford does not really float the boat on a good days racing. I thought the 7/2 on offer about Ghost Run in the opener(13.15) at Newmarket was a smidgen of value,but then i saw that there was no Bog offer on this race with Fred,so i switched my allegiances to the exchange where i got a touch over 4/1 for my money.The bay filly landed a gamble at Donny last time and looks one to keep onside .A Winner of two of his three starts Luther looked the pick of the prices at 7/2 in the Royal Lodge at 1.50,while the unbeaten Babouche(14.25) completes my fancies on the Rowley Mile Course.The 2/1 quote is normally as low as i want to take,but i had her down at a considerably lower price than that. The card at Market Rasberry is interesting in just how much my tissue varies from the prices on offer this morning. Obviously Jump Racing is in its infancy,and there is every chance some of these will not be fully wound up today,but its a chance you take when looking for that bit of value. The Skelton pair Got Grey (2/1) and Jet Plane (4/1) were better prices than expected in the 16.35 and 17.10 respectively and will do for me with brother Harry aboard.At 11/2 for the 16.05, Another Day Out is massive compared to the price i had her down as. She hasn't raced for over 100 days however and her price continues to drift like a barge this morning so it will be interesting to see how she gets on. As she only won eight days ago at Newton Abbot i can't fathom why Karannelle is similarly friendless for the 17.45.but at 11/2 i'm willing to find out why,while Garitsa Bay is another who has to overcome a 100 day absence in the last race on the card,but if fit, the 11/4 looks more than fair to me. All Prices quoted are from Betfred(unless stated) at 11.30 am

16.05 Market Rasen Another Day Out (6/1 Hills)

15.45 Worcester Backmersackme (7/2 Hills)

14/1(Bog), 7/2, and 11/4 Winners were Highlighted Yesterday. Not much of the way of value on offer at Newmarket this morning,with the rain and non runners making things trickier by the minute.The only horse i will be paying attention to at this meeting is Baltic in the 16.30.This Frankel colt continues on the upgrade and has won all 5 of his latest starts.Simply has to be followed until beaten and the 5/1 quote looks too big. Things look slightly better at Pontefract, a track where you need plenty of stamina. Hot Dancer at 9/4 is a bigger price than i was expecting,and he will do for me in the 15.45,where strong support for Ed Bethell's once raced Kirkdale has helped to make the market. Bethell also has a well backed favourite (Sectarius) half an hour later at 16.20.I will oppose this one also with 9/2 chance Clever Relation who was seen to good effect when winning at Goodwood last time.Finally the improving last time out Salisbury winner Up The Pace (7/2) completes the day's business when taking on just 5 rivals in the nursery at 16.53. All prices quoted are from Betfred at 12 p.m.

16.30 Newmarket Baltic (5/1 Bet 365)

Because of the heavy ground i will giving Goodwood a swerve today,while i have never liked betting on the all weather at Kempton. There looks to be value on my selections elsewhere though, and course and distance winner Fourofakind at 7/2 is tempting price in a 9 runner handicap at Perth (13.52).Half an hour later at the same course, Bowling Buddy at 11/4 this morning, is bigger than price than i expected.The Bowen/Murphy Combination should always be respected at this venue. Not sure if anything is amiss with Turkey and Ham in the 16.13 at Perth. A beaten favourite last time and an incredible drifter at 10/1 this morning.This Irish trained mare could bomb out big time,but if she were to win -i would never forgive myself for missing out on such a big price.The last race at Perth can go to Inspector Lynley. The morning 11/2 looks more than fair with Betfred and you get a free bet if your selection finishes second. Over at Redcar,i would not put anyone off True Wisdom at 7/2 in the 16.32 or Maris Angel(5/2) in the 17.05,and while there can never be a good thing in the concluding 17 runner handicap at 17.40,i will throwing a few shekles at last time out Thirsk Winner, Count Palantine.The morning offer of 11/1 is much bigger than i had about him on my tissue. All Prices Quoted are from Betfred.

1613 Perth Turkey and Ham (11/1 Hills)

14.10 Beverley Springbok (10/3 Bet 365)

19.30 Wolverhampton Bigz Belief (7/2 Bet 365)

1442 Hamilton Kyber Crystal (6/1 Hills)

I haven't but thank you for the heads up i will certainly take a look. The power of Bog however shouldn't be under-estimated as the two winners selected today had drifted out from what was already a value price.

I found most of this afternoon's racing either too competitive or the prices offered about my selections simply too short Things look a little better this evening at Wolverhampton and WHOOP WHOOP in the 18.30 is double the price i had about her on my tissue.The 4/1 offered is simply too big about this hat-trick seeking filly who is unbeaten since being tried in cheekpieces. Half an hour later SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX looks over-priced at 5/2.This 4yo gelding doesn't win as often as he should,but that seems factored in the price about a proven Course and Distance winner racing off a career low mark with a good 5ib claimer in the plate. Betfred's offer of a free bet 2nd,just swings a wager on 4/1 Chance MELISENDE in the 20.00.Winning despite being slowly away takes some doing at Lingfield over sprint distances,but this one did exactly that seven days ago.If unlike me you still have an account with Hills,then 9/2 is currently on offer. Finally, PYSANKA in the lucky last looks a play.The 5yo gelding ticks all the boxes here and while 2/1 shots are usually as low as i go when wagering-there is some 9/4 about in the villages this morning. I use Bog Bookmakers(and Betfair exchange) and currently only have a Betfred account at present.

1830 Wolverhampton Whoop Whoop (4/1 Fred)

1500 Doncaster Kinross (11/4 Lads)

15.00 Doncaster Magnum Force (3/1 Bet 365)

1545 Epsom Haliphon (9/2 Bet 365)

16.22 Catterick One Of Our Own (6/1 Hills)