Systemight

1900 Southwell Mon Etoile (4/1 Hills)

Three Selections today.. 14.05 Ludlow Shelikesthelights 9/2 (free bet if 2nd) 15.35 Ludlow Isabella Bee 11/4 1605 Ludlow Olivers Travels 2/1 All Prices/offers are from Betfred at 12.15

14.05 Ludlow Shelikesthelights (9/2 Fred)

A second and a faller from two selections yesterday... Off to Huntingdon today so best be quick,here is the pick of the morning prices according to my tissue... Huntingdon: 14.30 Mrs Tabitha 5/1 16.35 Call Me Arthur 13/2 1707 Cadarn 10/3 Leicester: 14.23 Pay Attention 7/2 16.25 Lord Melbourne 11/4 All quotes are Bog prices from Betfred at 10.am

16.35 Huntingdon Call Me Arthur (15/2 Hills)

7/2 (R4) and 10/3 Winners Highlighted yesterday. Just two that look a tad over priced today.. 15.17 Stratford Ronnies Rules 5/2 17.37 Stratford Top Tier Gossip 2/1 Quotes are Bog prices taken at Betfred at 11.15 a.m

17.37 Stratford Top Tier Gossip (2/1 Fred)

Apologies for no show the last couple of days,was at Newmarket yesterday, Uttoxeter today.. Selections: 13.15 Uttoxeter Intrepide Sud (7/2 Fred) 14.25 Uttoxeter Disco Davis (9/4 Fred) 16.25 Kelso O'Gradys Hill (4.3 Betfair Exchange) 17.00 Kelso Double Powerful (3.75 Betfair Exchange)

13.15 Uttoxeter Intrepide Sud (7/2 Fred)

17.30 Fontwell Kalif D'airy (5/1 Bet 365)

Competitive fare for the National Hunt enthusiasts at both Warwick and Southwell today,where winners will be hard to find. We will do our best though and Alan King's Theonlywayiswessex is selected for the opener at Southwell(14.00). In a wide open 11 runner handicap Chase i thought the 17/2 was fair given the scope this one has over fences. The fact Harry Skelton rides at Warwick seems to have put punters off the chances of Dan Skelton's Next Left in the 14.30 here,so we will nip in smartly and nab a bit of that 3/1 offered this morning.Three pound claimer Tristan Durrell is competent enough and this one has a 50% strike rate over fences .Just over Half an hour later Special Dragon lines up for a tough looking 13 runner handicap Chase,but the 5/1 quote is tempting.Given time to freshen up for this her Chase debut,this improving sort could easily be ahead of her more experienced rivals.I was at Worcester three weeks ago when i saw Shibuya Song bolt up in the finale that day at 33/1.Such was her ease of victory that day,she could easily win the finale here (17.10).At 6/1 she looks worth a punt. I have been a member at Warwick in the past,and there are few finer sights than being on a bold jumping front runner taking on those 5 fences down the far side.Don't be fooled though,those jumps are not as tricky as is often made out and the casualty rate is quite low. The ones with form in the mares maiden at 14.23 are a pretty uninspiring bunch,so i'm willing to take a chance on 11/4 shot Jayapura with my free bet for finishing second with Alafdhal yesterday.while the Skelton's complete the days business at this venue with Gods Own Getaway -one of three runners from the stable competing. Betfred are not offering Bog on this race,so i have switched to the Betfair Exchange to take the 5.8,which is a bigger price than i was expecting.. Prices/Offers were taken from Betfred at 11.00am

14.30 Southwell Next Left (5/2 Fred)

I doff my cap to you sir!-excellent knowledge. My data does not go back as far as yours,and mine are taken at Betfair S.P so we will always have differing results unfortunately. I have always thought when assessing Course and distance winners,that it's the amount of times a horse has won over the course and distance divided by the times it has RACED over that Course and Distance which is important. For example, a Horse that has won once in 20 runs over C+D At Wolverhampton,should not be rated the same as a horse who has won once over C+D at Wolverhampton- having had just the one run there. Interestingly both Redrosezorro(15/2) and Homer Stokes (10/1) won today at Catterick, the pair of them having won numerous times at that venue in the past. Unfortunately i never backed either...

10/3 Winner (sp 3/1) from two selections highlighted yesterday. One thing that i have learned from my trips to Catterick over the years is that proven winning form at this venue is just about more important here than anywhere else.With that in mind The Dancing Poet looks well worth throwing a few sheckles at in the finale at 17.05.The fact that this gelding has a 41% winning strike rate from 12 runs over today's Course and Distance makes the 6/1 quote looks generous. With a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd-Alafdhal looks worth chancing in the opener(13.38) at the early 7/2.Runner up in his last two starts and 7 times a winner in this class,now might be the time to strike. Monsieur Kodi is down in class after catching the eye when racing down the unfavoured side in the Ayr Bronze Cup last time,so i shall be taking some of the 4/1 available for the 15.55,while the hat trick seeking filly Garifullina looks the pick of the prices at 9/4 for the 16.30-11/4 can be found elsewhere. Prices/Deals quoted are from Betfred at 11.00a.m

1705 Catterick The Dancing Poet (7/1 Hills)

With the weather/ground seeming so unreliable at present,it's best to keep selections and stakes to a minimum for a while. "Seggie" is a strange course,where there are usually more plots going on than on bonfire night.However they never have too many fallers there(particularly the two in the home straight),so any selection at least has a very good chance of staying on it's feet. The only one there for me today is Barron's Land in the last. A Course and distance winner who likes to be up with the pace,he seems to tick all the boxes,and in a tricky 7 runner handicap looks a tad overpriced at the morning quote of 10/3. Over at Ayr the one i like is Musaka in the 16.35. A 10 year old veteran of 117 races means he is fully exposed,but seems to retain his enthusiasm for the game and rarely runs a bad race.A winner 8 times in this class and 15 times over the distance he is no good thing,but at 5/1 (6/1 Bet 365) David O'Meara's gelding should give you a good run for your money.He has certainly been knocking on the door of late.... Prices quoted are Betfred at 11.00 a.m

16.35 Ayr Musaka (6/1 Bet 365)

19.00 Wolverhampton Swinging Eddie (8/1 Hills)

I think you would very quickly go broke if you followed the market movers every day if i am honest,though of course they will come in with regularity. Of the two above mentioned options i would say siding with Market drifters are the way to go.Of course some drift badly and run accordingly and you need to be prepared for that,but don't "steamers" run unaccountably badly on occasions too?.. I read a book once on 10 professional gamblers and their methods,and while they each had their own idea's and assessed things from different angles, all ten had one common denominator that they looked for... Price!!.

15.40 Southwell King David (6/1 Hills)

The very fact that Heavy is in the going description at Both Haydock and Ripon is enough for me to give both those cards a swerve today,while Chelmsford does not really float the boat on a good days racing. I thought the 7/2 on offer about Ghost Run in the opener(13.15) at Newmarket was a smidgen of value,but then i saw that there was no Bog offer on this race with Fred,so i switched my allegiances to the exchange where i got a touch over 4/1 for my money.The bay filly landed a gamble at Donny last time and looks one to keep onside .A Winner of two of his three starts Luther looked the pick of the prices at 7/2 in the Royal Lodge at 1.50,while the unbeaten Babouche(14.25) completes my fancies on the Rowley Mile Course.The 2/1 quote is normally as low as i want to take,but i had her down at a considerably lower price than that. The card at Market Rasberry is interesting in just how much my tissue varies from the prices on offer this morning. Obviously Jump Racing is in its infancy,and there is every chance some of these will not be fully wound up today,but its a chance you take when looking for that bit of value. The Skelton pair Got Grey (2/1) and Jet Plane (4/1) were better prices than expected in the 16.35 and 17.10 respectively and will do for me with brother Harry aboard.At 11/2 for the 16.05, Another Day Out is massive compared to the price i had her down as. She hasn't raced for over 100 days however and her price continues to drift like a barge this morning so it will be interesting to see how she gets on. As she only won eight days ago at Newton Abbot i can't fathom why Karannelle is similarly friendless for the 17.45.but at 11/2 i'm willing to find out why,while Garitsa Bay is another who has to overcome a 100 day absence in the last race on the card,but if fit, the 11/4 looks more than fair to me. All Prices quoted are from Betfred(unless stated) at 11.30 am

16.05 Market Rasen Another Day Out (6/1 Hills)

15.45 Worcester Backmersackme (7/2 Hills)

14/1(Bog), 7/2, and 11/4 Winners were Highlighted Yesterday. Not much of the way of value on offer at Newmarket this morning,with the rain and non runners making things trickier by the minute.The only horse i will be paying attention to at this meeting is Baltic in the 16.30.This Frankel colt continues on the upgrade and has won all 5 of his latest starts.Simply has to be followed until beaten and the 5/1 quote looks too big. Things look slightly better at Pontefract, a track where you need plenty of stamina. Hot Dancer at 9/4 is a bigger price than i was expecting,and he will do for me in the 15.45,where strong support for Ed Bethell's once raced Kirkdale has helped to make the market. Bethell also has a well backed favourite (Sectarius) half an hour later at 16.20.I will oppose this one also with 9/2 chance Clever Relation who was seen to good effect when winning at Goodwood last time.Finally the improving last time out Salisbury winner Up The Pace (7/2) completes the day's business when taking on just 5 rivals in the nursery at 16.53. All prices quoted are from Betfred at 12 p.m.

16.30 Newmarket Baltic (5/1 Bet 365)