Glentoby
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Posts posted by Glentoby
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Such are the perils of racing Xtc,however you should check your bet again. as the fav in race five won the race and there were 6 runners,the last was 4 runners,is that what you meant?
I assume this was the case and hindsight is not much help in any scenario other than to beat yourelf up.I had the pisspot on all three days of Aintree and given the dividends in hindsight I would not have bothered.
Half a million in the pool on all three days,a couple of favs out of the frame,happy days you would think?
Wrong,the 2nd day was the biggest dividend.....Thu £54.40,Fri £145.80,Sat 61.20......incredible considering the National was the last leg yesterday.My biggest perm was only 16 bets on each day and I thought given the pool sizes a good divi was a certainty.
The only explanation I can think of is that the syndicates and usual Jackpot/Scoop 6 bigger players had targeted the pools of the pisspot knowing how big they would be.If so they have shot themselves in the foot by diluting the pool and I cannot think of any other reason why there were so many winning tickets.It is out of sync with what is normal,even allowing for the On Course attendance playing on the nanny.
Should be obvious given the payouts at Newcastle and Chepstow in comparison but unless someone can pinpoint the source of winning tickets we will never know.
What is obvious however is that if it is the case then perhaps the smaller meetings on the same day may be the way to go i.e concentrate on them rather than the big meeting?
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You cannot argue with facts,very well done Billy and everyone else who finished +.Just make sure you all keep the results to hand for the future trends and stats!!!! lol
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1345 Aint Debece
1425 Aint Black Op
1500 Aint Diego Du Charmil
1540 Aint Rocklander
1620 Aint Wholestone
1715 Aint Seetouatmidnight
1820 Aint Sheu Time
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1345 Aint Who Dares Wins
1420 Aint Style De Garde
1450 Aint Ms Parfois
1525 Aint Politologue
1605 Aint Theatre Territory
1640 Aint Ok Corral
1715 Aint Pym
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1345 Aint Brain Power
1420 Aint Nube Negra
1450 Aint Bristol De Mai
1525 Aint My Tent Or Yours
1605 Aint Distime
1640 Aint Tommy Silver
1715 Aint Posh Trish
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Just a couple of suggestions to possibly steal a bit of value.
Bristol De Mai I have recommended as a lay on his last 2 starts,described him as a slow coach.Might still be but enough reason to take a chance on him in the Bowl.
Had a wind op on 29th Jan,will relish the going and the race could end up in single figures.General 11/2 3 places.EW bet looks solid.
My Tent Or Yours,getting on a bit but absolutely bouncing at home.Would prefer better conditions but will handle soft or heavy well enough,again the Aintree hurdle may end up with a single figure field.5/1 general,3 places.Again ew looks solid.
Hard to see either being out of the 3 as things stand and they both look certain to line up.
My bet for them is to throw them into an ew Round Robin with Seeyouatmidnight at 16/1 general and an ew treble.Shop around and you can get extra places at the 16s with several firms for the GN.
Good luck whatever your bets,I will be very disappointed if the above does not generate a profit.
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Hi Bob,interesting topic about speed figures.I have used speed ratings for many years but only in terms of using race times to either firm up an opinion or otherwise,not actually ratings as such but simply the actual race times.Simple these days to find a race time at the bottom of the results in the Racing Post.
I find the race times most useful if the bet I am considering is run on the same track as the time I am looking at,rarely do times travel well e.g comparing times at one course with another.Unless you are looking at courses which are similar in configuration,ground conditions etc.Where i do find times particularly helpful is when a horse runs to within a close proximity of its times,consistently under similar conditions.This helps to confirm that the horse is probably well within itself and vice versa if it suddenly dips below a certain level without good reason .eg slightly hampered,mistake at an obstacle it could point to a physical problem.
Most obviously these days on the AW tracks the times have a particular significance as they are more consistent in terms of conditions.However even on these tracks the time factor should always be approached with a degree of caution due to the way they are prepared e.g Harrowing the surface.Like dog tracks they can be manipulated.
Not long ago I put a horse up on here as in theory the nearest thing to a certainty as possible to get based on time as the main reason,rarely if ever I have ever done this.It duly won (I think it was at Newcastle).A short time later it was up against the horse it had hammered and in theory should have won again.It did not and the form was comprehensively turned around.
Proof if ever I needed it that time is only a very small consideration even over C & D under similar conditions,it obviously has its place but has to be treated with the utmost caution?
Having said that it could be the difference between having a punt on a horse that nobody else seems to fancy because they havent considered the time element.Best wishes on your return to punting but as you probably know it is a different animal to that you left behind so slowly slowly,small steps and garner as much as you can from the Forum.
Nobody can give you the experience you obviously have nor the knowledge but the advantage you have over a complete novice is your past experience,a building block which is a massive plus.
Good luck and best wishes for the future.
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13 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest.
Anyway, it was a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say
Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning .
The way the weather looks over there Billy it could be that the trends guys should be looking at horses like Red Marauder?
Do you think it will be heavy come off time? If it does then that should help in thinning out the field.Just read an article on the Racing Post site about trends and one of the few things David Carr doesnt touch on is the ground which is strange in that it is always one of the first things I consider in any race.
He mentions that stamina is one of the most important issues in modern Nationals due to the nature of the classier horses and the faster pace.If it comes up heavy I think the class angle will be less important than weight and stamina.The problem is that for all 40 runners not a single trainer or jockey could say with confidence that their horse could stay 5 miles + which in terms of energy used will be the case.
What chance then the punter,even seasoned ones.At least I know my pick will handle heavy but can he stay 5 miles? lol
I think a good way to approach Saturday might be to bet on the number of finishers,if it comes up very soft or heavy a low number seems most likely.Also the classier horses are more likely to be pulled up if struggling than those on low weights from the smaller stables who get few shots at the prize so it may pay to have a few ew bets on those types at big odds.
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You wont find it anywhere Billy,I did not say I had tipped him...........merely backed him which btw the post was not about.My tip is him but at 16/1 ew if anyone has any interest. HTH
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On 4/1/2018 at 8:56 AM, Xtc12 said:
The placepot caught my eye from the very first day that they came into betting shops .... had never heard of them before (probably have always been on course). No better way to sit down and watch a shit days racing by doing the placepots. The disaster is having 5 winners and the last one couldn't be bothered running into a place even.
Do you really think Glentoby that you can make a profit on placepots. Please advise. What size perms would you do ?
Absolutely xtc,the pools are now quite robust,permwise it really depends on the size of the pot and stake size you are comfortable with.2 x 2 in is obviously 64 bets and it all depends on the course/ground/draw etc on the flat.For me I would prefer 6 or 7 runner fields or less even under both codes where if there was 4 runner races only the winner counts.
4 bets gone if you cover the field granted but most will be on the 1st or 2nd fav in most races so probably 50% plus out of the pool if 3rd or 4th fav wins.
My friend won the biggest ever placepot at the time which happened at Newbury,early 90s,paid £19k + change,she was paid out less than £500 because of the INDY rules on Tote bets,so warning there about punting "in shop" with Indy's.
By contrast I hit one at Newmarket which paid £1,700 to £1 for a few quid (single line) not long after,placed with one of the big 4 in shop.They tried to claim I had not paid tax (No tax on pool bets even then),wrote to Jim Cremin at the Racing Post,a few days later a large cheque received.
Should not be a problem these days but always worth checking terms and conditions unless you are confident your bet is going into the pool.
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Tongue in cheek title but just to emphasise that I do follow and have plenty of years of experience in racing and punting.Dr Devious some may have noticed died a few weeks ago aged 28.He died not far from my second home,indeed my spiritual home in Sardegna
My first ever bet in Sardegna was at Poetto Racecourse,a tiny sand based cicuit next to the beach,right handed sharp circle/oval,long gone although the track and scaffolding stand are still visible.Most of the races were for Arab/Anglo/ Anglo Arab horses,the race conditions depending on the percentage of blood from the stallion or mare e.g 40% to 60% and vice versa.
My first bet was on a Gelding whos sire was Grundy,simply because it was the only Anglo blood I could find in the racecard,lost obviously.However ridden by an apprentice called Stefano Fresu who looked as tidy as most jockeys in UK.
A couple of years ago I noticed a jockey riding for Luca Cumani on one of the AW tracks ,claiming 7lb .Antonio Fresu,I contacted him and asked if Stefano was related,it is his dad.Started a thread on RUK now defuct to follow his progress.A long story short is that Antonio is finally growing up and is in the UAE ridinng out and riding for big operations and will be going back to the UK.I am not saying he is the next Frankie or Atzeni but he will be worth following at level stakes throughout this season.
Ed Walker and Mike Murphy already utilize him and he has traveled to all points of the compass in the UK to ride 1 horse,mostly on the AW,mostly outsiders.His hard work unless he fuc*s it up might be rewarded this flat season.Before he went to the UAE he was above himself,arrogant and too full of his own importance,the complete opposite of his father.
However as long as he carries on his hard work back in the UK,I guarantee there are few finer horsemen than he and I fully expect some high profile yards using him this season,only he can mess up this prediction.So confident am I that for every £1 placed on his mounts in the UK between now and 31st October 2018 I will match the losing figure to the Injured Jockey Fund and split the same for a winning figure between IJF and Jack Berry House.
Would be nice to have someone to match my promise for a very good cause or as many as would like to help those two causes,from this forum.Obviously I cannot promise anything but I am confident he will end on 31st Oct 2018 with a total win to ride ratio on a par with most claimers in the UK.
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Here is a trend and stat,my GN pick a few weeks ago was Seeyouatmidnight,backed at 40s and 33s ew before he was qualified and continued until his "Qualifier" at Newbury,even now 16s is acceptable if you are not already on.
However he has been bought by the owners of Chevely Park Stud,a habit they have of buying horses a few days or weeks before the race.They did win with Party Politics but failed since so according to stats and trends he has NO CHANCE because lightening NEVER strikes twice in the same place?
Bullshit of course in terms of fact and not stats or trends but maybe my original reply did decry trends and stats too offhand for some.However my point was and still is that trends and stats can be manipulated before and after an event which is no good if a profit from betting is hoped for,bearing in mind a bet has to be before an event.
e.g Willie Mullins and Gigginstown had never won the Irish National until this year,using trends and stats few would have found the winner.
Trends and stats are fine for some and as Billy Hills says not all are stupid and might use them to thin out a large field like the GN,fair enough but the bookies already have this info and built in to their tissue mostly so where is the value?
The value is in opposing the stats and trends not to mention self satisfaction imo when you have cracked the puzzle e.g Neptune Collonges.My very good friend,once the youngest licenced bookie in the UK recalls his dad doing his nuts as a layer up until Nicholas Silver saved the day.The only reason 33/1 was available when Neptune won was because of the stats and trends i.e No Grey since NS etc,never factoring in the small percentage of greys taking part since NS.Without factoring in percentages etc it makes stats and trends a sheep following exercise doomed to failure for serious punting and long term profit
As soon as someone mentions being accomodated by Bet 365 the red flag goes to the top of the mast,unless you have been limited to "maximum bet" option 10p win,you know you have failed to make a profit.
All that apart good luck in however you bet,not here to judge only to help,sometimes it is better to be cruel to be kind although not sure about current trends??????????
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Trends are as bad as stats,easy to highlight the winner meeting the trends and stats whilst forgetting how many of the other 40 runners met them but lost????
Not too many years ago I took on the stats/trend guys.............their statements of fact included.
French breds do not win the National
Horses beaten in the Dante do not win the Derby
AP has not won the national
Progeny of Montjeu cannot win at the Chelt Fest
These are but a few where it was proven that a statistic is only as factual as the last occurence and as profitable as looking at trends to pick one individual horse when more than one fit the profile unless of course putting one up BEFORE the actual contest every time?
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Quite a while since I posted,for various reasons,one being health,one being conflict.However on the subject Bob asks about.Little point in betting on "TOTE JACKPOT" imo Bob as in reality the Tote no longer exists,as I predicted when Bald Fred bought the rights,nor will it ever exist again in the form we knew it.
Pool betting relies on volume and is basically a "No lose book" as it relies on a percentage deduction from the total bet into it,the results do not matter.
So weak now that the only viable options are when there is a huge carry over,the acca odds are by far and away more profitable most of the time.The advantage of betting on the TOTE pools are largely gone compared with what they once were i.e In the main you were betting against the largest percentage of people who had little knowledge of betting,hence why they used the Nanny (Like the lottery,a numbers bet).
By contrast the Placepot has grown and the pools can be lucrative,my advice would be leave the Jackpot well alone until a big carry over occurs.Concentrate your bets around the placepot including perms,long term you will win more and more often,same re the Scoop 6.
When the carry overs occur you will be betting against the same mugs who made the pool grow in the first place,therein lies your advantage.I have gone through the card several times with accas,one that hurt loads was back in the 70s when I had a Tote place acca with Coral.It was their bet and did not go into the Tote pool,all 6 won but I only collected on the place,the same I suspect applies to place accas where they are accepted now.
My advice would be split your bet e.g jackpot & placepot and an ew acca if you feel you have to play,even on carry overs.Pool betting is dead in the water as I type but there is scope to profit when a large carry over is up for grabs.
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Apologies for that,nailed on he wont be getting a call soon...............hope his boyfriend is more forgiving!!!
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Joey Haynes has'nt had the chance to shine lately but Four Fifty Three in the last was only out for a "sighter" last time,dropped back in trip a bit he is expected to win.
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Juat about recovered from an unfortunate bout of ill health in time for the Olympics i.e Tuesday to Friday.Hopefully to give a few pointers throught the spectacle resulting in an overall profit.Everyone seems focused on the young and up and coming horses and completely disregarding the "old guard" which is fair enough.However disregarding those who have been there and performed at the top level previously may be missing out on a bit of value,as followers and backers of Pete The Feat found out today at Sandown,14 years young!!
To that end I have a portfolio of older horses (Not so old actually,more experienced at Chelt and the Festival).Not on the downgrade as much as being caught up by younger,progressive horses.So the following 4 of the portfolio consist of 3 who have the tee shirt and one who has potential.
My Tent Or Yours CH, All to do against BD but last run proved not yet on the downgrade.
The New One,Stayers,Again proved not on the downgrade,sure imo to stay.
Cue Card,should be a GC winner but in calmer waters in the Ryanair and again LTO proved not yet ready for his pension.
A decent EW Patent and treble at whatever prices you can get at the moment,the ground is not going to be an issue for any of them.
Now the youngster...........Politologue in the CC......already put him up before the Tingle Creek and on at 20s win 6s place and laid back around 4s before Altior strutted his stuff.Altior looks like the best horse at the Festival imo but his lto performance meant Politologue drifted dramatically so enabling an all green book,better than before the TC..Has to represent ew value and bear in mind Altiors biggest question was about to be asked by Charbel before he hit the deck.Politologue is a better horse than Charbel.
So basically looking at 4 places with luck but even 3 from 4 should give a good return.
As Racecaller,Betfair and Racing Post forumites know,I rarely leave behind the kitty in multiples or overall at the Festival.
Add Politologue to the other 3 and have an EW Super Robin and acca as I have or as you choose Lucky 15 etc and very good luck all whatever your bets.
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Sorry for the delay in responding,things you can rely on in this life is death,taxes and ill health getting in the way,obviously not death or even taxes will stop the "Holy Grail" salesman,Unfortunately health dealt me a blow but not fatal or a victim of HMRC.
First look since last visit and can see no coherent or justifiable explanation within the responses,certainly no reason to negate my views?
Did anyone find striking reasons to join in the journey to the "Promised land"?
Just curious.
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21 hours ago, Caan Berry said:
Hi Glentoby,
Thanks for the delightful sarcasm...
In return;
Details of proof of the holy grail that you insist on disproving are found via a rather delightful facility called ‘google’.
Failing that, here’s one:
https://betting.betfair.com/authors/caan-berry/
Note: that bio from Betfair is a little old now... it’s been almost 10 years.
To imply that it’s not possible to consistently make money from betting over an extended periods is somewhat rediculous. If this were the case, who would Betfair impose their 60% premium charge too? And why would every bookmaker in the land limit me? Maybe Betfair made up the premium charge and all it’s terms just to give themselves some negative publicity?
I have to say; I haven’t read all of your rather long thread... mainly because it’s so wrong within the first couple of paragraphs.
Whilst I can sympathise with a point made about ‘systems’ to some degree; there are heaps of ways to make money with a systematic and methodical approach. Maybe the interpretation of the word ‘system’ is the issue here...
Trading is not some one-size-fits-all system; there are many variables to any betting market. To think anything like that exists is just plain stupidity. Understanding the characteristics and limitations of both betting markets and sporting situations is the first step to systematically betting for a profit, being it via trading price or letting variance do hedging for you.
Touche' in sarcasm............."plain stupidiy" though is an assumption.Systematic and methodical is a one size fits all for the majority of "HolyGrail" salesmen is it not? The premium you refer to is why most successful bettors left BF,long before they were owned by A BOOKMAKER,they could not make it pay? Remember Warwick Hunt? Famously lost £100k in a single transaction when he was on course with the latest technology "Stealing money"!!!
"Every bookmaker in the country limiting you"? Not banning you? Bookmakers have been accomodated on Betfair for years,allegedly and presented as a hedging tool? Quite simply you are trying to sell something which by your own admission cannot work i.e the puchasers would not be able to get their money on?
Stated this within the post I made about "systems" if you had bothered to read further,hence why my "method" has never been sold and probably never will be,the pricetag reflects this.
How are you different to Brimardon for example?
My own pedigree goes back to the first betting licence for "Off Course" betting shops through family,my best friend being the youngest ever licenced bookmaker in the UK decades later.
I include Clive Holt,Dave Nevison and dare I say,Terry Ramsden among those I was priveleged to know.
Clive wrote a book using a system he devised,no worse and no better than most,Dave did similar but actually cracked how to win gambling on horses.Terry as is well known was an invetirate gambler who's habit made him a hugely successful business man!!!
Put together,they could have dominated most markets,individualy they fu..ed up long term,each had their own "method and approach" apart from Clive they never had a "system".
With Dave he had pressures of providing for his family .eg Divorce,schooling etc,Terry just had a habit,Clive just had a point to prove,to himself.
I have none of the above,just a desire to prevent "anyone" preying on anyone else for their own gain and targetting the most vulnerable or desperate.The gambling percentage who provide the bulk of profit for some of the biggest laying concerns equals about 95%. 95% of their income comes from individuals with problem gambling,lowest income and vulnerablity?
The easiest money they will ever earn legally? Hence why they are howling about FOBT stakes being reduced!!!
So my sole question is "Who is your target audience for the sale of your product and are there any guarantees for the purchasers"?
My user name is made up from a combination of Terry Ramsdens failed Glen International and Toby Tobias,Jenny Pitmans outstanding chaser,owned by the toxic Hitchins.Hence Glentoby.
Again all recorded for posterity,just google Glentoby and any of the names mentioned above.
No wish to discredit you but returning your favour of "Idiotic" and a simple explanation of why your less than £40 certainty is going to benefit the purchasers.
Yours In Sport
GT
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12 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Buts it gone on too long now, a good debater always knows when to end it at the right time.
And that is fair comment Billy even though the interaction with Valiant can hardly be described as a debate per se.I have no issue with him/her or anyone else on here for that matter.As stated my credentials are there for anyone who feels inclined to check.
It is neccessary sometimes to give away more than one would wish purely to establish credibility and trust from others,particularly in the Cyber world.Should anyone ever approach me with a problem on here that perhaps involved a legal issue they requested help with they need to know and be able to judge my pedigree,motive and trustworthiness?
Valiant was entitled to tackle me on every level but with the info I have provided had obviously not bothered to do his own "Due dilligence" and carried on with the same attack which other than pointless,proves a disregard of fellow forum users who might at some point need help.Also proves that he/she has not read my other posts in any regard or detail?
Nothing i have posted to date is anything but the truth as far as i am aware and pretty diverse in terms of what has been the norm for the Forum.As you know,most racing Forums have eventualy failed over the years and you know the main reasons why,as alluded to previously.
This one deserves to thrive and not end up as a platform fo keyboard warriors with nothing better to do than try to inflate their own ego at the expense of fellow forumites.If anyone feels the need to question or tackle the opinions of others the least they should be expected to do is quantify and qualify their own reasoning,otherwise it is simply trolling?
Sometimes truth may seem stranger than fiction and hard to accept,all I can say to that is that it is up to the individual who reads anything I post but mostly e.g Brimardon etc is there for posterity for the World to see if they felt so inclined.I sincerely hope that any issue with Valiant is addressed and now buried but still welcome any question from him/her as an individual matter rather than a scattergun dismissal?
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16 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Come on guys, pretty pointless tit for tat, lets move on
Sorry Billy only standing my ground.Valiant like everyone has the advantage to check my validity?
Debate is what makes and defines a forum so to that end up to him/her to qualify the attacks?
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4 minutes ago, Glentoby said:
Are you worth your contribution to a racing forum? Can you quantify your personal attacks or qualify them?
Please feel free to do so?
This is 2018 and not difficult to find anyone with a desire to do others harm despite the internet cloak,so guns and violence not really neccessary.A keyboard troll is no more than a fly or mosquito,easily swatted away?
Like scammers or even the Rock of the Racing Post,see any signs of them tackling me yet?
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Are you worth your contribution to a racing forum? Can you quantify your personal attacks or qualify them?
Please feel free to do so?
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Only intrigued that you mentioned Betfair and then mentioned "Sports betting trading",you found the holy grail?
The links you seek,havent seen are on this site,commonly know as "Threads" and involve every participant who cares to engage?
Perhaps this is the "missing link"?
Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Hi Xtc12,sorry my post did not change things but at least you got the gist and a grip of the pissspot in general terms and in fact in better understanding than the vast majority who play it.
i.e The percentages,this is what all betting is about for profit,either backing or laying. The pisspot negates the gut feeling etc when you fancy a particular horse.
The main thing for betting into the pool other than for fun is to understand what you are up against in terms of possibility V probability,you have got that cracked.
For me checking the pool size v remaining tickets is key as to whether the following is viable.
i.e if you are still going into the 5th or last leg is the potential payout worth laying your 2nd last or last selection to at least cover your outlay?
How many players think of doing this? Obviously depends on the potential payout but as you emphasised easy enough to roughly calculate at each stage.I have no problem laying one or both of my last 2 selections to cover the outlay in the place market.
I always factor in the possibility of the selection being placed and the Pool dilution,however also put up an in running ask of at least treble of what I have laid e.g laid at 1/2 ask 2/1 etc.