Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Someone put me out of my misery and tell me if there's any connection between the odds of a team to win and to win at HT and the HT/FT odds :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds HT/FT odds should be HT odds * FT odds, but I wouldn't be surprised if the bookies shaved a bit off the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds That was my first thought also, but it isn't the case. If it were, you'd get odds of 2.46 for Chelsea HT/ Chelsea FT tomorrow but the market has it as 2.04. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Exactly - the bookies shave off the price. It's a gold-mine to them, because so many punters just go for it without considering the odds. It's the same with scorecast bets - the bookies LOVE them. There would be more value in taking the HT and FT results seperately, than doing an HT/FT bet. Multiples designed by bookies (eg HT/FT, scorecast, wincast, timecast, whatever) are almost always worthless for us punters, and I'd definitely recomend taking them as seperate singles instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds So if the correct odds are 2.46 then the 2.04 on offer on Betfair must be a massive massive value lay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds wait, I take it back let me think this through, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds :tongue2 Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds OK, taking the Chelsea - Marseille match with an Chelsea/Chelsea bet You will lose if: - Marseille win or draw the first half - Chelsea win the first half then fail to lose The chance of Marseille not losing the first half is, according to the bookies, 47% However, if Chelsea are leading the game at HT (53%), there's a small chance that they'll lose this lead. The bookies are giving this chance a total of around 11%. So, you're chances of losing are; - 47% if Marseille win or draw at HT - The Chance of Chelsea winning at HT and failing to win the match at 53% * 11% = 6% so a 53% chance of losing, thus a 47% chance of winning and correct odds of 2.13 Thus, the thought of backing or laying must be decided on the following factors: - what's the chance of Chelsea winning the first half - if they do win the first half, what's the chance of them holding on to the lead sorry about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Great, thanks for that ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Hold on, I think I'm confusing myself. Sorry to be a pain but could you put it in a simpler format like an equation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Hold on think ive got it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds I'll make a formula for you The chance of a win is, 1-(A+(B*C)) Where: A = the chance of Marseille winning or grabbing a draw at HT B = the chance of Chelsea winning at HT C = the chance of Chelsea losing the match IF they are winning at HT the correct odds would then be 1/(1-(A+(B*C))) A,B & C should be in decimals (eg. 70% = 0.7) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds ^ What a guy! Thanks for your time, appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Anytime mate Feel free to yell at me if you find a mistake :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds I'll make a formula for you C = the chance of Chelsea losing the match IF they are winning at HT This is the bit I'm having trouble with. I'm not sure where you got: However, if Chelsea are leading the game at HT (53%), there's a small chance that they'll lose this lead. The bookies are giving this chance a total of around 11%. ... - The Chance of Chelsea winning at HT and failing to win the match at 53% * 11% = 6% Those figures from? The Half Time markets for the Chelsea game have been cleared, leaving only the trap bets so it's hard to cross reference your figures now :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds 53% is from the bookies Chelsea HT odds of 1.89 (100/1.83) the HT/FT odds gave showed a 53% chance of losing the bet. 47% are from Chelsea not winning the first half, so the remaining 6% must be from Chelsea winning HT and then losing or drawing FT. I knew there was a 53% chance (according to the bookies) of Chelsea winning the first half, so I did 53% * Y% = 6%, Y% = 6%/53%, thus Y = 11 53% * 11% = those 6% the bookies added on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds I may have misunderstood your question, 11% is the chance of Chelsea not winning IF they are leading at HT 6% is the chance of Chelsea leading at half-time AND not win at FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK92 Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Jenspm I have a question regarding HT/FT odds for you. Tonight in La Liga Malaga are playing Villerreal. The odds for Villerreal to be winning at HT are 3.35 so therefore their perecentage chance of winning at HT is 29.85% This means that the chances of Malaga winning or the teams drawing at HT is 70.15% The remaining % must be from Villerreal winning HT and then losing or drawing FT. However this is a minus percentage (29.85% - 70.15%) -40.3% When I put all these variables into your equasion (1-(1/(A+(B*C))) I get the figure 1.43 :@ Where am I going wrong ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 1, 2010 Author Share Posted October 1, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds I'm still struggling with this for some reason. It looks like it should be straight forward now, especially with the equation. Lets do another game, Hannover vs St Pauli, in play later today: 1-(A+(B*C)) Where: A = the chance of Marseille winning or grabbing a draw at HT B = the chance of Chelsea winning at HT C = the chance of Chelsea losing the match IF they are winning at HT A = 7 (0.1428) B = 2.84 (0.3521) C = ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds BK92: Not quite. You've got the HT percentages correct (A and B in the formula), however, 'The remaining % must be from Villerreal winning HT and then losing or drawing FT.' isn't quite accurate. This percentage has nothing to do with the two others - here you're just saying "ok, Villareal are leading at HT, what's the chance of them not winning the match?" - this is for you to judge, it could be anything from 0-100%, though it's more likely it being low on the scale. Sand87: A+B should equal 100% in total - seeing as there is no other outcomes than a win, draw or loss at HT. C is, as I said to BK92, a third percentage that has no connection to A or B. You're simply saying, "What's the chance of Chelsea not winning when their up at HT?" Thus your definition of C should be 'losing or drawing', not just 'losing'. Sorry about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 1, 2010 Author Share Posted October 1, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Thanks for the prompt reply. I'm still not sure how to get C though :lol What value for C do you arrive at for the Hannover game tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK92 Posted October 4, 2010 Share Posted October 4, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Thanks for helping Jenspm :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK92 Posted October 4, 2010 Share Posted October 4, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Guys what value do you have for C between Beira-Mar and Sporting Lisbon tonight ? I have 6.06% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 18, 2010 Author Share Posted October 18, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Still can't get C :lol Any luck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salford_student Posted October 18, 2010 Share Posted October 18, 2010 Re: Half time/ Full time odds HT/FT odds should be HT odds * FT odds' date=' but I wouldn't be surprised if the bookies shaved a bit off the price.[/quote'] As you have noted further down, this is the incorrect way to work out the odds, however you are correct they do shave a bit of the price, actually it's quite a big bit compared to what the 100% odds are when calculated correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollywood17 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Hi all, Jepson is a bit of time I'm trying to understand how it works HT / FT but I could not find any formula. Could I have a complete example with regard to the shares of Dundalk Bohmemians game tonight? dimensions are: half time (1) 2.14 - (x) 2:46 - (2) 7.4 Final time: (1) 1.55 - (x) 4.3 - (2) 7.8 for example, the partial final X1 @ 4,6 (back). And just according to your calculations? thanks in advance H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Re: Half time/ Full time odds You digged up 3 years old thread but it is not a problem of course. First we need to convert bookmakers odds into probabilities: half time (1) 2.14 - (x) 2:46 - (2) 7.4 this would be: 0.46 0.40 0.13 Full time odds are: (1) 1.55 - (x) 4.3 - (2) 7.8 this would be: 0.64 0.23 0.13 So HT/FT draw/dundalk would be 0.40*0.23 = 0.092 (according to bookmakers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Re: Half time/ Full time odds Actually not, after I wrote last post I inserted numbers for upcoming game from Peru division and i realized it cant be calculated straight-forward way as I showed above. Because if there is Half time win of Home team , there is way way more likely for them to win Full time than pre-game odds suggests. There is strong corelation here so calculation for this are way more complex. And bookmakers know this because H/H, D/D and A/A odds are much lower than my simple calculations. This might be also because they are shading some overound there becuase these are most popular outcomes taken by punters, but I doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2b Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Re: Half time/ Full time odds and real probability for Full time odds : (1) 1.55 - (x) 4.3 - (2) 7.8 --> 0.64 0.23 0.13 are not exact because bookie adjust in function of weight of money. 0.64 can be 0.66 and 0.13 can be 0.11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Re: Half time/ Full time odds What do you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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