Betting with Jay

[jayalexander]

Hi all, I've just moved house and am taking a career break, so thought that a productive thing to do with my time would be to document my daily bets. For now, most selections will be 1pt win or .5pts ew, from a starting bank of 100pts until the time comes that I feel confident enough to start slightly upping the stakes. I'll also have a dabble in sellers every now and again, at .25pts ew. I'll provide reasoning why I believe my selections will win and also short answers as to why the other runners in the field will not win, although in selling races this won't be the case.

[jayalexander]

Re: Betting with Jay 4:20 Ffos Las - Class 3 Handicap 3yo+ (0 - 90) 14f There are two runners that interest me in this one; Aurorian and Fantino. Both are 4yo geldings with similar records, but it is the Hannon trained Aurorian which gets the go ahead from me. He showed the earliest promise, winning his second race, whereas it took Fantino seven. Although his record of late hasn't registered as many wins as Fantino, he has consistantly been running in this class or above. Fantino, on the other hand was found out after finishing 18 lengths behind the winner in a cl3, in August, following two back-to-back wins at cl5. Aurorian has only raced once at this distance and finished 2nd, after which he stepped up 2f and didn't disgrace himself. Now that he's dropped back in distance again, I believe he'll improve on his 2nd place. He'll benefit from being 4lb lighter than the 16f outing, while a 2lb rise from the August 14f run shouldn't cause too much of a problem. Another plus point for me is the strong Hannon/Hughes partnership. Hughes has, in fact, ridden him to all his three victories, although to be fair he has taken a lot more. Let's take the 5/1 currently available with Paddypower - win. Now for the remainder of the field: Cotton Mill & Plato are both taking part in their first 3yo+ handicap Master At Arms hasn't raced in over a year Rajeh is on his first race back from the jumps Dazinski is riding off a huge weight increase despite recent poor form Rugell hasn't won on these shores and does not show signs of doing so Markington has faded after an impressive 2010 return to turf from hurdles