Value questions?

[Shy10ck]

A couple of questions to you value bettors. 1) What is the lowest value you back, 1%, 3%, 5% ??? 2) how do you stake the different values?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Value questions? Have we not covered this before? I'd want a margin for error. So one I consider a 1% (fair 100/1) chance would not be backed at 200/1 (fair 0.5%), as it is only 0.5% different to my tissue. I'd probably want 400/1 (fair 0.25% so 0.75% different to my 1% assessment) to back it. The amount of margin for error would be greater for those with a bigger chance of winning, something I believe has a fair 4/1 chance would not (normally) be backed at 9/2 but would at 5/1. Margin for error also depends on how easy I thought the market was to evaluate. A difficult market to work out will need a larger margin for error. A fair 100/1 shot has in theory a 1% chance, so my stake for something I believe a 1% chance is 1 point, plus the amount of value (0.75% make that 1%) so 1% + 1% = 2% so stake is 2 points @ 400/1 or bigger. One I believe has a 20% (4/1) available at 5/1 (16.7%) has 20 points plus 3 because difference between 20% and 16.7% is 3.3% (rounded down to 3%) 20 + 3 = 23 points @ 5/1. In practice I have few (at a guess around 25 or 30) bets at 100/1 or bigger in my life. Never had a 100/1 winner, biggest 89/1 (Marcus at Wincanton a few years ago). Wish it hadn't won, as the main bet finished second! :lol

[coldpenguin]

Re: Value questions? Yes i understand your thinking combining the stake with the value of the bet. So we then come to a evaluation of a points bet against risk. Look for the value in the bet, to me means bookie price to my expected price. So the bookie has the perticular bet at evens, and i think it should only be 4/6. So i take that bet. With reference to a stake, this is done on bankroll rules, and results in the past, if its an ongoing concern. Its always an ongoing concern. For me mixing these % with stakes can be ok. But. The risk of a bet or bets, it based on, bankroll management with reference to past scenario,s taken into account. So small adjustments needed, but in my mind, not % to the (just value). Equation= Value) Then Past results, your last bet or bets. & then Stake. Under Bankroll rules. I prefer than, working a Stake to only, what Chance it has, if you know what i mean.