Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version

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Some might remember (but I'm sure most will have forgotten) that I trialled and failed with a system for finding anytime goalscorers a couple of times last season. I've refined things a bit more following feedback, particularly the staking system (which several people felt wasn't right) - I'm going to use Kelly. To qualify, a player must have: *scored in at least half his home games (so proving he's a regular goalscorer) *his side must be favoured to win on Oddschecker (so he's playing for the better side) *the opposition must be in the bottom half of the table and concede at least 1.5 goals/game for each away game (so the opposition is in theory weaker than average, and there are likely to be home goals) *must have scored in one of his last three home games (last season I got let down by out of form players who were on a barren run) It works like this - I work out the percentage of games a player has scored in that fit the above criteria and compare it by the offered odds for him scoring. For example, if a player has scored in half his games, then I'll reckon he has a 50% chance of scoring. Then, if the bookies are offering longer than evens, I work out how much Kelly tells me to stake. To skew the odds a bit more, I'm multiplying his % scoring record by x.95. I was planning to wait until 10 games have been played and looking in England down to the BSP, and the top divisions in France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Holland, mainly because the stats are available and bookies I've got accounts with run anytime scorer markets for these leagues. However, there's one in Norway today that fits, and of course the Scandinavian leagues are far enough through their season. This is a 'paper' system, starting with 1000 units, and staking half the Kelly amount. Molde v Hofness, Magne Hoseth 5 goals in 8 games (59% when multiplied by .95) odds 11/5, so Kelly stake 201 units

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Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Hoseth didn't start, so the bet was void.