BBOTD 18th Sept 2010

[Lars]

15:20 Ayr Interesting they bring him over here but I do rate Partner very highly and although it's implied he has a bad draw in 6, I reckon the price of 28/1 is far too big and willing to back him EW. Has being very consistent this season, being there or thereabouts (apart from his last run) every time. Willing to put a line through his last run, especially as it may have come just a little too soon. His performance over 5f at Tipperary was an excellent one and on that run, even with a much higher mark today, he'd be bang there. One of Ireland's top claiming jockeys rides which is a positive and Marnane has been immense all season. Tough race but at this price I'm not willing to let this one go. EW @ 28/1 >Paddy Power BOG

[Alice]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 15.20 AYR Havent posted on this thread before but i really do think Jonny Mudball has an excellent chance, A good draw this time as last time in the Stewards Cup i think the draw was against him, even then in a few more strides he may well have beaten Evens and Odds., He beat the well touted Poets Place by over 4 lengths at Doncaster and meets on the same terms today, and also having less runs than most of the others , he still has improvement to come. I dont back e.w so

Best Price Ladbrokes @ 8/1

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 2.15 Ayr Still not happy to give up on Tiddliwinks yet, he has bags of ability and has been significantly unlucky in draw/type of ride/unlucky in running this season in big field handicaps but today he has the perfect draw in stall 24 which could prove vital. Drying ground could also be important and has been strong in most markets this season to suggest he is working well at home and runs off the same mark as one of his best efforts this season last time out when 4th 2 1/4l behind poets place in Portland last time out and could be well handicapped. 0.5pt e/w tiddliwinks 9/1 vc

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 3:30 Newmarket - Kayf Aramis Has not raced on the flat for well over a year and the last time he was seen was 149 days ago. The last time he switched from jumps to flat he won by quite the considerable margin of 13 lengths, which was over today's 18f distance although that was with just a month's rest. The gelding has bags of experience, having ran in many high prizemoney races and should have no problem with the distance, while the unbelievably low weight allocation of 8-7 can only work in his favour as his previous win on the flat in 2006 was 9-6 (13 lengths winning margin). Jim Crowley rides for Nigel Twiston-Davies. 10/1 Paddypower (BOG) - win

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 15:55 Ayr Zero Money has progressed really well for Roger Charlton this year, winning two handicaps and placing in one from 5 runs. The gelding is still lightly raced and is sure to still be on the upgrade. His progression may have been halted LTO as it seemed his stamina was stretched a bit over the mile trip at Ffos Las in his last run. As a result of this he has been dropped back to a more suitable trip of seven furlongs today, a trip in which he has won twice over. His last win came at Leicester where he beat Rio Cabolo by 2 and three quarter lengths and he has since won in a handicap since off the same mark. He also beat a good yardstick in Santefisio at Goodwood in his previous race. The 4th and 7th place from that race has went on to win since to boost the form slightly. Zero Money is now 6lbs higher than his last win but due to the fact he is likely to still be progressing I feel he is more than capable of winning off a career high mark today. Is likely to have competition for the lead today which is my only concern considering he has made all in his last two wins although he has been ridden in behind the leaders previously and that was the manner he was rode to victory when he broke his maiden tag so it will be interesting to see how Steve Drowne rides him today. 1pt win Zero Money @ 10/1 (Stan James - B0G)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 3:20 Ayr - Poet's Place - 1pt WIN @ 15/2 (PaddyPower - BOG) Lightly raced and highly progressive 5 year old who didn't see a race track until November '09 when he raced and won at Southwell winning by 4 lengths, he then won again at Southwell over 6f winning by the same margin again off a mark of 75. He had a 4 month break before return at Doncaster running off 87, looked a big threat but faded in the final furlong to come a close 5th with 3 of the 4 horses ahead of him winning since that race. He finished 4.5l behind Johnny Mudball next time out on rapidly fast ground which suited the Dascombe horse and didn't suit my selection at all. He was well clear of the rest of the field. Ran no race in a big Heritage Handicap after that coming 12th on rapid ground again and over 7f which doesn't suit at all. The form of his next run and his last race is what I'm extremely impressed by, he absolutely trounced a very competitive field in a class 3 handicap at Haydock Park. He absolutely relished the softer ground that day and beat the highly progressive and soft ground specialist Harry Patch who has since won at Yarmouth beating a good horse in Mac's Power quite easily. Dimika (3rd) came out of that race and won in a 17 runner Heritage Handicap at Ripon on soft ground, the 6th place, Baby Strange came out and won at this course over 6f in a 19 runner field. The 9th place horse, Fathsta, won since and even the 14th placed horse, Definightly, came out and won on slower ground since too. The form of that race is rock solid and he won eased down and at a canter. Poet's Place was raised 10lbs for the run and it's more than fair in my opinion and there's a lot more to come from this fellow. He went on to run in the Portland at Doncaster over 5f & 140yards, he was slowly into stride that day but made rapid headway through the field in the last couple of furlongs and got up in the final 50 yards to win going away from the rest, he proved that day that he handles relatively quick ground and he'll be getting similar ground today if things stay the same (Rain forecast though; which he wants). What impressed me was his turn of foot and how quickly he swallowed up the 2nd placed horse, Bajan Tryst, and started to pull away from him to win by half a length. He was 2l ahead of anything else and really showed the ability that he had, he looked in trouble at one stage and hit 100.0 in running but his undoubted class told in the end and there's still more to come from him in my opinion. He's trained by my favourite trainer, David Barron, who certainly knows how to treat a horse and gets the best out of them. He has been patient with this fellow and it's coming to fruition now. He's extremely lightly raced with only 7 career starts (4 wins) and has a lot more to come, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a good Group race in the coming year or so. He has so much speed and cruises through his races to perfection. The extra half a furlong will suit him quite a lot and as long as the ground isn't rapidly fast he will have conditions perfect here at Ayr today, he's up 5lbs for his Portland win but I'm not sure that'll be enough to stop him and he could become the first horse since Lochsong to win the Portland/Ayr Gold Cup double. The draw has been the big talking point throughout the week with the high drawn horses consistently finishing ahead of the lower drawn horses and Poet's Place has been left with stall 12, I'm not really sure how to gauge what he'll do from there but it could be possible that he could get over to the stand side group where the speed has been all week and where the majority of Dandy Nicholls' speedsters are drawn and the likely front runner Johnny Mudball is positioned. The Barron horse may end up being held up to run on late which worked last time out but it will be harder to maneuver him into position in such a big field but if the gaps appear at the right time he certainly has the turn of foot to cause a lot of bother to the opposing horses here and I believe that he's the best horse in the race by some way, he's open to a lot of improvement too and a mark of 101 is in no way beyond him. The only thing I can't figure out is what tactics will be used but I'm assuming he'll be held up on the back of a strong pace and hopefully the gaps open at the right time. David Barron has won this race before with the only favourite to win it in the last 25 years and that horse had a similar path to Poet's Place. Although he was more exposed and not open to as much improvement as my selection but he went off 3/1 favourite and duly obliged. Barron has had him aimed at this race all season and he usually has one brilliant handicapper every year, like he had with Sirvino in '09. I think Poet's Place can take this in his stride and the possibility of rain later on today will certainly help him even more, but if that doesn't come he should still handle the ground which will be relatively slow. He is, in my opinion, the best horse in the race and I think he'll put in a very brave effort to win this and I think he'll do it. He's entered in a Group 2 race next month also which shows how highly though of that he is. He has went from strength to strength this year and he's the one to beat and looks great value at 7/1 to me. Maximum stakes at an already advised price after he won the Portland, he's available at 15/2 to back now and with 5 places paid he could be an each way bet to nothing. If rain comes that price won't be around too long and I'd say David Barron will be getting involved in him at this price as he really fancies his chances and said he is working very well at home. Max bet on a horse who owes me nothing.

[thomo14]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 Ayr 15.20 Signor peltro Ran well in the Portland Sprint Likes the ground EW

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 4:15 Newbury - Tazeez - Back On official ratings it's his race to lose here. Has weight in hand all round and should be able to make that count. Has been running big races when placed in group 1 & 2 races in last 2 starts, notably behind byword in the price of wales' then behind the ever progressive sans frontiers lto. That form looks standout and his class should tell here 1pt win @ 8/13 William Hill BOG

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 3.05 Newbury Senate comes here in great form and although dropping back in distance should still give his running. Stable can do no wrong right now and I think Buick is riding out of his skin. Should lead or at least be close up throughout and I cannot see anything apart from Cumanis horse getting close. 1 Pt win 4/1 Bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 Stratton Banker - Wolverhampton 6:20 I feel this horse has a huge chance tomorrow. There is a lot of exposed dead wood in the race i feel and this horse is very progressive and the step back to 5 furlongs from 6 is a huge plus in my opinion. This is a very strong travelling horse and over the 6 furlongs last time out was going very well until it reached the last furlong when it couldnt quicken so the 5 furlongs should be perfect for it tomorrow, it might not even have to come off the bridle in fact.. At Wolverhampton over 5 furlongs with fields of 10 or more horses, low stall positions are much preferred and have a good strike race so this horse is in Stall 3 tomorrow so has a nice inside pitch to work with. On its last race it went as low as 1.11 in running which just shows how well it did travel and it will be going low again tomorrow!! Amazingly the handicapper has not touched the mark it runs off today and that is a huge plus, runs off a very leniant 59 again tomorrow. I expect this horse to travel very well, look a sure winner a furlong out and should have the pace in the final half furlong to get its head up. I dont rate any of the other horses as dangers. 1 Point win @ 11/4 (Paddypower) BOG

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 1.40 Ayr Raucous Behaviour Win @ 11/4 Stan James Won maiden a Brighton well enough in the end. Should improve for that run and will be suited by todays course and step up

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 3:20 Kaldoun Kingdom @ Ayr - Won the Silver Cup last year at this meeting and finished 2nd to Hawkeyethenoo at York in July only beaten by a head.Was a bit disapointing LTO but a return to form can see it go close 0.5 pts E/W @ 40/1 Blue SQ

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 2.20 Newmarket Roxy Flyer - backable at 14/1 despite being only 10/1 on RP tissue. Glorious Goodwood winner and repectable effort at Ponte last time out. Open to more improvement. 14/1 William Hill, 1 pt win

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 Dazinski 3.30 Newmarket 20-1 Sportingbet (EW) Most of the other bookies go between 12-1 and 14-1 and that seemed like generous odds. This has been noted a while back and mentioned in my notebook thread:

Dazinski If you look back through this horses form you'll see it has been very unlucky on a few occasions, hampered at York last time out and never in the race, not given a clear run at Ascot, eased when beaten at Newmarket giving a false look to that race when it was last. I backed it at York under Daryll Holland and he held it up well and then started making progress late on but had to weave in and out of gaps and just failed to get up and deny Wicked Daze. That one had form with Dirar and Dirar went on to win the Ebor at York in August. It ran again at York but Ted Durcan never gave it a chance, holding it up too long without making any headway. Needs a marathon trip and entered in the Caesarewitch, currently 33-1.

Todays race is a Caesarewitch trial and Dazinski is fairly weighted off a mark of 87, only 1lb higher than its last win. Ran well at York under Holland and was a bit unlucky at facing a wall of horses but was last off the bridle, travelled really well and then had to weave in and out to grab 2nd place. I don't think the 2m2f trip will hold any problems and feel this horse may have been given this kind of price based on the no show last time out. RP analysis make it sound like the horse flopped but it was never even put in the race by Durcan. No ground problems and ran well in a big field before (15 runners today), the only concern was that I felt Newmarket favours more prominent horses but more so in races over a shorter trip, the jockey has 2m to get it into contention and it is likely to be coming late, running down beaten horses.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 2:00 Newbury Satin Love 1pt win - 18/1 (VC) Think this price is way too big. Was disappointing lto but that was over 7f on good ground which clearly didn't suit. Was just under 5 lengths away from Libranno over 6f in a hot race, so it's not completely clear as to whether or not the horse is suited to genuinely good ground, but at 18/1 it's worth chancing. Was an impressive maiden winner over 6f on GS ground so a bit of cut would obviously be ideal. Over the seasons Johnston has shown a healthy profit at the course so here's hoping that can be extended.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 RED MERLIN 3.05 Newbury. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find best form again, but drops to a mark that can see him go close if he does. Handles good and a bit softer and the trip fine, so at big odds would be worth a bet.

[bowles10]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 3.20 Ayr Gold Cup Pointers Dont ignore Dandy Nicholls having won 5 of the last 9 races inlcuding one year when they didnt enter a single horse. Southern based trainers had a poor record until Clive Cox won last year with Jimmy Styles, since 1999 around 85 horses have tried & produced 2 winners Presto Shinko in 2005 and last year. 7 of the last 11 favourites have been from southern trainers however the long trip north is obviously not favourable. 4yo's have a great record with 10 wins in the last 18 years, that cannot be ignored & as there are not many 3yo's normally entered up at this stage of the season, it pays to go with the 4yo's. 7yo+ have a very poor record with just 1 win in 31 years! Horses carrying higher than 9st 3lb have only 1 won once in last 12 years. Draw The silver cup is normally the best way of tackling the draw bias, notably stalls from 1-11 & 20+ are the ones to consider, middle draws had a poor record again until last year when the winner came form 15. Last years silver cup top 6 were 2-3-11-5-8-9 & The Gold cup was 15-6-9-3-11-27 with the winner held up behind the pace. Again will pay to avoid draws 12-20 in this large field. Yesterdays Bronze cup the 1st home were 25-22-12-26-1-10. Previous form Interestingly before 2008 the last 8 winners had bypassed the Royal meeting & the Stewards cup is now the best form line with 7 of the last 12 gold cup winners beaten in that race. If its form you are looking at 8 of the last 15 finished 4th or higher on latest start. A recent run within 22 days is an excellent pointer as 10 of last 12 have that stat. Favourite backers, dont get out of bed! 1 winner in last 32 years is enough to miss the race & go shopping with the missus! Reducing the field Therefore looking at the best stats, these are the groupings: Drawn 12-20 ignore Tajneed, JImmy Styles, KNot in wood, Poets place, Damien, Damika, Hawkeyethenoo, Redord, Noverre to go Ran within 22 days keep Barney McGrew, Genki, Hitchens, Quest for success, Signor peltro, Striking spirit, Flipando, Arganil, Johannes 7yo's + ignore Barney McGrew, Tajneed, KNot in wood, Signor peltro, Flipando, Damika, Johannes Nicholls entries keep Evens and odds, Striking spirit, Victoire de Lyphar, Horses lower than 9st 3lb keep Partner, Prime exhibit, arganil Conclusion In conclusion, many to consider however using the key stats Genki, Hitchens, Quest fo success, Striking spirit Arganil Genki and Hitchens are the only 2 that finished in the frame LTO, they are drawn 8 and 11 and they both ran in the Stewards cup. They are both the wrong side of the cut off weight however 18 horses are in that category. Of those drawn high Victoire de Lyphar should be respected although the fav's stat is enough to warn me off this one. Of those drawn high Evens and odds may be the one to consider although 9st 9lb is plenty enough weight so the 5lb claimer has been put up My betting strategy is on a sliding scale in terms of how i rate the horses Genki 17.5 5pts win Evens and odds 4pts win 23.0 Hitchens 50.0 3pts win For BBOTD purposes - Genki EW

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 18th Sept 2010 SIMENON 3.30 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to prove himself over this trip, but with being dropped in the weights and with knowing he goes on this ground, I'd take the chance at around 16/1 (exchanges). Could improve well for the trip and that should then see him go very close. Liam Keniry no mug and so should get the pace of the race correct.