protop Posted September 15, 2010 Share Posted September 15, 2010 Can a staking system turn a break even sequence of events, in money terms into one that shows a profit. If so what is the best staking system out there and what is the criteria for judging it? Any thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted September 15, 2010 Share Posted September 15, 2010 Re: Staking systems Can a staking system turn a break even sequence of events, in money terms into one that shows a profit. If so what is the best staking system out there and what is the criteria for judging it? Any thoughts I doubt it, see Huygens' result(gambler's ruin) here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Surprised there has not been more interest in this subject as I am sure staking systems and hence money management are crucial to one's success. Take this series that pays even money; WLWLWLWL 4 wins 4 losses Zero gain to level stakes. But increase by one point after a loss and decrease by one point after a win and you get + 3 points from a zero expectation game. So it is not the fact that it is a zero sum game that stops you making a profit it is simply the way the sequence of results presents itself. So what makes a good staking system and what makes a bad one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosTheelen Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems If I understand your question right, I see 2 possibilities. You could look at the standard deviation of a system. As long as your profit is more than 2 times the standard deviation, you probably have a good system. Another way is making a graph. If it goes up and down, but ends up, you don't have much. If it shows a clear slope, going up, it looks much better. But whatever you do, you often need a lot of results, before you can conclude anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems And the result for these sequences is: WWWWLLLL LWLWLWLW LLLLWWWW ? ( note on LLLLWWWW i suggest using 0.5 points ) then what is the average profit on all 4 situations ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems well if you stuck to one points. The first would show zero gain. The second would show +4 Points and the third would also show +4 points So across all four sequences the average(mean) would be +3, +0, +4, +4, which I make 11 Points divided by 4 gives an average of 2.75 points per sequence. Not quite sure what the point was? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems But increase by one point after a loss and decrease by one point after a win i assume you start on the first bet with 1 point and the odds are evens, so... come again ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems actually, never mind, i can't be bothered this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Shame. as an experienced punter, I thought I might learn something new? Anyone else with some thoughts on the utopia of staking systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems well if you stuck to one points. The first would show zero gain. The second would show +4 Points and the third would also show +4 points So across all four sequences the average(mean) would be +3, +0, +4, +4, which I make 11 Points divided by 4 gives an average of 2.75 points per sequence. Not quite sure what the point was? Sorry Datapunter Having a senior moment. the first sequence you gave would have left you down 6 Points. so average is equal to 1.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Shame. as an experienced punter, I thought I might learn something new? Anyone else with some thoughts on the utopia of staking systems How about this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Thanks for the link, but I was thinking along the lines of money management that actually benefits the punter, not depletes him of his bankroll in double quick time. Suppose you could use it as an example of how no to bet, we'll put it into the "Bad Staking Systems" category. Unless of course someone knows better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeepaul Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems by staking systems do you mean "chasing" In certain sports this works but I found that the betting angle you are playing takes just as much time studying and doing research as just making single plays I also recommend you limit your plays to just three games, say for instance you bet on Madrid to draw in the next three games if they don't draw by game three, just count your losses and move to the next betting angle also if you are doing this type of betting, if you regular unit size is 10 dollars, i think you need to reduce this to 2 dollars hope I'm on the right path here in regards to what you guys are talking about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Can a staking system turn a break even sequence of events' date=' in money terms into one that shows a profit.[/quote'] It depends exactly what you mean, but for all practical purposes the answer is "no". By a "break even sequence of events" I assume you mean that the individual bets you make are at exactly "fair" odds: i.e., the average return from each bet is equal to the stake? After a fixed number of bets, you will on average be exactly even, no matter how sane or suicidal your staking system is. All that your staking system can do is affect how this "on average" breaking even is made up. For example: You can choose the "no betting" staking system to make sure you're exactly even no matter what, You can bet your whole bank on each bet so that you have a huge chance of going broke and a tiny chance of being unimaginably rich, but still even on average, You can use a loss-chasing system like Martingale so that you have a huge chance of a small profit, but a small chance of a huge loss, but still even on average. If you drop the "after a fixed number of bets" condition, and instead keep going until a fixed outcome (e.g., "until I've either lost £10,000 or won £1000, however long it takes") then if there's a maximum you can lose (e.g., all the money you own in all the world) and there's a maximum you can win (e.g., all the money owned by all the bookmakers in all the world), and you stop when or before you hit one of these maximums, then it's still true that you'll break even on average. If there's a maximum loss, but no maximum win, then you can average worse than breaking even (as an extreme example, if you bet all your worldly wealth on each bet, then eventually you will lose everything). If there's a maximum win, but no maximum loss, then you can make a profit. E.g., Martingale does this: if you keep chasing losses then eventually you'll win a bet and make a small net profit (possibly after losing the GNP of ten large galaxies along the way). Of course, neither of these last two scenarios is very realistic, which is why I said that 'for all practical purposes the answer is "no"'. I think the reason that there's been less interest than you expected in the "utopia of staking systems" is that most people here know that there isn't one, and that making money from betting is mostly about finding positive expectation bets, and that staking systems are not to make unprofitable betting profitable, but to manage the risk of profitable betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems Can a staking system turn a break even sequence of events, in money terms into one that shows a profit. If so what is the best staking system out there and what is the criteria for judging it? Any thoughts It cant be done. You cant cheat probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Staking systems staking systems are not to make unprofitable betting profitable, but to manage the risk of profitable betting ditto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Staking systems Okay, Can a staking system [Money Management System] Prevent bigger losses than a system that loses at level stakes. the point I am trying to make here is,what staking systems are deemed to be the most useful as there must be degrees of effectiveness and what numbers do punters consider when measuring how effective they are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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