Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Very wet today at Ayr and windy, the ground must come up Soft on Fri/Sat.

[Haystacks]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

What is the rule on horses off same mark? How many need to be taken out' date=' so Nasri gets into the GC?[/quote'] 2.2.2 Horses with the same weights - where it is necessary to eliminate some but not all horses with the same weights, those that have incurred penalties will be eliminated first and those without penalties will be eliminated in the published ascending order, such order having been determined by random balloting. Penalised horses with the same weights will also be eliminated in the published ascending order determined by random balloting, unless the horses concerned have different penalties in which case the horse with the lower penalty will be given priority. Any horse previously omitted from a Handicap or given an incorrect weight as provided for under Rule 134 will be added randomly to any horses on the same weight and such horse will be subject to elimination, if necessary, in accordance with that revised random order. From Part B of http://rules.britishhorseracing.com/Orders-and-rules&staticID=126770&depth=3 (Anyhow, I think you get your money back on any ante-post bets if your horse is ballotted out.)

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

Bit of money for this Croisultan who was beaten into third at the weekend by Bewitched. Soft form looks pretty decent though 4l behind Lolly for Dolly and nk loss to Bewtiched. Listed winenr but seems to thrive on the going and off 102 is interesting. 50/1 with Freds and Totesport worth an EW interest for me

The more I look the more I like, soft or worse form is 13614431284 which isn't going to set the world alight but the Lolly For Dolly race was a good one and he beat some nice types. Limited by Betfred but then had some more on at the same thing Totesport at 50s, they both seem slow on the uptake, as low as 25s in a lot of places and even money on Betfair. Looks massive to me...

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

(Anyhow' date=' I think you get your money back on any ante-post bets if your horse is ballotted out.)[/url']

Aye, that's true, but I have 28/1 and he can win the Gold Cup, while he has no chance in the Silver Cup. GC full of exposed horses, while SC is a bit open and few good things lurking off decent marks. And he's just 14/1 for it. It's a funny game :) Thanks mate :ok

[fintron]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) The GC is full of exposed sorts but there are a couple that look well handicapped. Regal Parade (25/1), for example, is well treated on the pick of this seasons efforts considering he wasn't beaten far in Group company earlier in the season and has continued to drop in the weights since. Dandy also has a fine record in this race and he is a previous race winner. Colonel Mak (16/1) has to be afforded plenty of respect too as he's another CD winner. He might have had a few gnashers knocked out at Goodwood but he is anything but toothless and will go on any ground. Did a few of us proud in the Silver Cup consolation last year judging by previous posts in this thread. The three year olds only get 2lb from their elders at this time of year but of the classic generation, Mayson (16/1) makes some appeal. He ran very well on his seasonal bow in the Gt St Wilfrid at Ripon. They'd be my three against the field, although it would be nice to know the draw before getting seriously involved.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) WH have Fashta at 14's for the silver cup if it runs in the gold you get your money back thats a pretty fair bet imo.

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Croisultan backed even more, 16s in places but was tipped by Ben Hutton in the Post today as well. Still seems to be getting backed. Will be backing Barnet Fair EW in either the Silver Cup or Bronze Cup depending on what he gets in. Progressive sort who has some solid runs to his name. Form behind York Glory and Internationaldebut look good off his current mark of 90.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Sunny day today in Ayr with some wind.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

Richard Fahey Just walked a bit of the track at Ayr. Track in fantastic condition! Probably ride a bit dead. Could be good/soft & soft in places by tomorr

Another dry day tomorrow and the rain is expected as late as Friday evening, so could be riding a lot quicker than expected in the Bronze Cup.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Well-backed Croisultan all set for Ayr mission BY JAMES PUGH 7:36PM 14 SEP 2011 CROISULTAN, a big mover in the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup market, is on target to contest the big sprint handicap for trainer Liam McAteer on Saturday. The five-year-old is now as short as 16-1 (from 33) with Victor Chandler and is available at 20-1 (from 33) with the race sponsors following prolonged support on Wednesday. McAteer was narrowly denied in the 6f sprint in 2005 when Majestic Times was beaten two short-heads by Presto Shinko and Fonthill Road and he is looking forward to mounting another challenge with Croisultan. "Ever since Majestic Times I've always wanted to go back for another crack," said McAteer. "I think Croisultan is as good, if not better, than Majestic Times and I'm looking forward to it. "He's going well and he likes soft ground. I don't think there will be too much between the top and bottom of the weights - I think bottom weight will be something like 8st 9lb and it will be very competitive - but at least he won't be giving a stone away to something with a light weight. "He's ran some blinders this summer, when either the ground or trip was against him and his regular jockey Niall McCullagh will take the ride, which is great. But the draw will be important." Croisultan will bid to follow up fellow Irish-trained Nocturnal Affair's win in the Ladbrokes Portland Handicap last Saturday and McAteer said he can understand why punters have come out in force to back his charge. "I think my horse was definitely overpriced at 33-1, he is a fair price at 16-1." The draw for Ayr Gold Cup, as well as the Silver and Bronze equivalents, will take place on Thursday morning. Cracking price you got Rat best of luck. Kaldoun Kingdom now only 16's with PP

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Cheers Ted. Missed this piece today too so thanks for posting

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Had three goes at it !! You certainly have an excellent price on Croisultan Rat. Great spot - think still worth a go at 16s. 3:20 Ayr: Our Jonathan 1pt win 22/1 Coral, Kaldoun Kindgom 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 & Croisultan 1pt win 16/1 Betfred Our Jonathan may still have all on to turn the tables with Pepper Lane, however he ran very well behind that rival at Ripon and the likely strong pace should suit again here. The ability to handle seven furlongs could also be a factor for encouagement as in recent renewals horses with form over the extra distance have performed well. Kevin Ryan knows what it takes to win and this race and has gone close too, so Our Jonathan looks to have a fair bit going for him. A four year old he could still be improving. Kaldoun Kingdom ran in this race last year when he was beaten four and a half lengths by Redford. That day Kaldoun Kingdom was on the wrong side (he may be again) however he is seven pounds lower in the handicap and although he has not run since June he can go well fresh. Last time out in June he looked to retain all his ability when running on over five furlongs when meeting some trouble in running. Off the same mark of 98 here, a decent run looks on the cards. The best prices about Croisultan have gone, however this horse proven on a softer surface still looks worth a small interest. He has been mainly running in pattern company of late which can often be hard to assess back in handicap company. Looking through his form, his last win was in a Listed race at Fairyhouse where Portland winner Santo Padre was behind, hard to know quite what to make of that, but a positive rather than a negative. Fit and in form he is another that could go close.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Fahey goes low for his Ayr Gold Cup runners BY JAMES BURN 11:26AM 15 SEP 2011 TRAINER Richard Fahey took a different view from his counterparts when picking low numbers for his five Ayr Gold Cup runners in Thursday's draw. Castles In The Air will break from stall one, with Brave Prospector in three, Kaldoun Kingdom in four, Mayson in five and Majestic Myles in ten. That was in contrast with Ayr Gold Cup specialist David Nicholls, who had first pick and went for 28 with Regal Parade. Nicholls, who has won the race six times since 2000, also placed Tajneed in 21. Jim Goldie, trainer of Hawkeyethenoo, was pleased with stall 20 for his sprinter and said: "He's fresh and well and capable of winning. I walked the track and it seems fair right accross and we've the option of going either way. "Dandy [Nicholls] knows how to win this race and he's elected to go high so let's hope it's the right decision." Mac's Power, the sponsors' 11-1 favourite,was fifth out of the hat and trainer James Fanshawe had clearly done his homework when deciding on stall eight. "I'm happy with that," Fanshawe said. "There were no horses around us when we came out, but stall eight is the one I wanted. "When the ground has been good to soft or softer in the last 20 years, seven of the twelve winners have been drawn six, seven or eight." Pepper Lane, 10-1 joint-favourite with Mac's Power with Paddy Power, was third-last out of the hat and connections had little choice, opting for stall 11. Part-owner Kevin Nicholson told Racing UK: "Ideally, we'd have wanted a higher draw, but she's imporved so much and has a serious chance of winning." Five horses guaranteed a run - Secret Asset, Reignier, Kanaf, Norville and Gramercy - were taken out on Thursday's declaration stage but that was not enough for 16-1 chance Nasri, who needed two more to be withdrawn. Thats interesting. My own opinion is that a middle draw is best so that you can go either side or down the middle as may not be that soft come Sat.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) 3:55 Ayr: Layla's Hero 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 When something looks too good to be true it usually is, however at 10/1 it could be worth siding with Layla's Hero. He races off 85 here after picking up a penalty for his win at Newcastle. That win was on soft ground too and his first run back at six furlongs for a while. All his previous wins with David Nicholls had been over six furlongs and this was Layla's Hero's first try at it for John Quinn and he won nicely after giving ground away at the start. He moved through the race well although he appeared to be tiring in the last half furlong. In the past Layla's Hero won two Listed races when he was rated 96 & 103. There is just a doubt looking at that final half furlong that Layla's Hero is not quite back to his old level of 103, even so, he may still have just enough in hand.

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Ayr Bronze Cup 3:55 Ayr - Esprit De Midas - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places) You can't get much tougher than these big-field sprint handicaps and with no less than 27 runners lining up here, it's exceptionally tough to solve the puzzle. However, it seems as if there'll be plenty of speed coming from the low-middle stalls and those drawn on the far side may well be favoured. That's what I'm hoping for anyways, as I'm siding with my old favourite Esprit De Midas, who's drawn in stall 9 and comes here representing the seemingly out-of-form Dandy Nicholls team. I don't like backing animals from stables who aren't going well but the price makes it a risk worth taking and this fellow has everything to suit - now he just needs to show he's still the same talented horse that we saw last year. Esprit De Midas hasn't shown his best since joining the Nicholls string from Kevin Ryan's yard at the beginning of May (claimed for £15k). However, he has only run 3 times since then and only once in a handicap for the Sprint King - one in which he had valid excuses (fast ground + Epsom's tricky track = defeat). If we go back and look at some of his 2010 exploits then everything looks a lot better, as he's an exceptionally useful horse on his day. His only 2010 win was over this 6f trip at Haydock when the soft ground came out to play nearly a year ago to this day and a repeat of that effort will see him go close (won shade comfortably despite numerous problems in-running). Esprit De Midas also ran a cracking 2nd to Mac's Power (strongly fancied for the Gold Cup) when they ran in a 21-runner handicap at Doncaster (on decent ground) in October '10 and that's another effort that - if repeated - would see him win this (also 4lbs lower now). It's all very easy in theory but he's a class horse on his day and there's no reason to think that he can't get involved. He comes here on the back of a comfortable, confidence-boosting win in a claimer at Caslisle last time out and despite the grade, it's not a bad run to come here on the back of (showed much more and ran above his mark - which is promising). It should do his confidence the world of good and the return to a flatter track could see him in an even better light. He also hit the front too early last time out and he'll enjoy being held onto for longer on the back of a solid pace here. This is the time of year in which it's best to catch him in the big sprint handicaps and his record suggests that he really enjoys the hustle and bustle of it all. He's well handicapped, ideally suited by ground conditions, ideally suited to a track like this and definitely suited by how the race will be run with regards to pace. It's just a question of whether Esprit De Midas will prove to be well positioned from stall 9 but he has plenty of pace-setting stablemates around & about him and this should ensure he'll get a race run to suit. Assuming he gets a nice toe into the race and isn't inconvenienced by the draw, I'm quite certain that he'll put up a bold showing. Adrian Nicholls is on board for his father and he took the reins for the first time when guiding Esprit De Midas to that comfortable claiming success last time out. That could be viewed as a positive too and hopefully this was the long-term plan for him and that he's the stables main hope of success here (seems likely to me). I certainly think he's more than up to getting involved and with 5 places being paid alongside a fancy price of 16/1, I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can run to his best. There's no doubting that he's got the ability to win, it's just a question of luck in a race like this and plenty of hope that the stable have him spot on to run his race. Anything down as far as 10/1 is an acceptable price (in my opinion of course) and hopefully the ground doesn't dry up too much, as that would be most unwelcome. Again, there's way too many dangers to list. La Zamora would interest me if she's waited with (might put a few quid on in-running if she is) and 20/1 looks a bit too big.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) 3.55 Ayr - 2pts e/w Layla's Hero @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Naturally this Bronze Cup is wide open, but Layla's Hero looks well handicapped now his career looks set to return to the 6f races. 5 of his 6 career wins have come over this trip (other 5f) including 3 soft ground successes. His mark shot up to a mark of 104 having won 5 from 7 in 2009, and this mark meant it was difficult to cut ice in handicaps since. He was also campaigned mainly over further but now his mark has come back down, he looks well capable of landing this competitive event. He came back to form when a close 3rd at Redcar over 7f under today's rider, and confirmed he was back in business when winning decisively at Newcastle under similar conditions to today. Jamie Spencer was confident in the saddle before delivering a strong effort to win with plenty to spare. He won by 1 1/4l and runs off just 5lbs higher today. He's well up to winning again so long as he's positioned on the right part of the track. He previously won a 6f handicap by 4 1/2l (race worth 15k to the winner) off a mark of 83 so it's pretty concrete that he's capable of winning off 85 today. His new yard have rejuvenated him and can give John Quinn a good winner today.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) BRONZE CUP Layla's Hero looks to have a strong chance on best form but at 8's is too short for me in a race like this. Nicholls has plenty in here as you would expect. His son rides 1.5 E/W 16/1 PP BOG 5PLACES ESPIRT DE MIDAS who won a claimer lto likes the ground is capable of winning a decent Handicap like this. The horse he beat was .75 E/W PP BOG 5 PLACES TOMBI 18/1 who has slipped way down the ratings needs luck in running but has an outside chance has ran some creditable races in as good as company as this. Not a great price should be 25's or more but will hopefully drift and finally another Nicholls horse .75 E/W 5 PLACES CARA'S REQUEST 25/1 BET 365 who is interestingly dropped back to 6f by the king and is lower than last winning mark Fanning gets the leg over he had a nice price winner today.

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Two horses for me in the Silver Cup and they are Fathsta and Parisian Pyramid, funnily enough they are both owned by Dr Marwan Koukash and are top of the betting. Anyway, I've been using my new system of late and these two are the ones that have flagged up. Both horses have low and high draws covered aswell as one being a prominant racer with the other whose a hold up sort also both act well on the ground and are running off marks that are light given their ability - all angles covered and may play a reverse forcast. The Gold Cup I'm already on Pepper Lane and Eton Riffles but I'm going to have to go in again on Ancient Cross, having backed him lto I do believe he was one of the best horses in the race and looks lively of this mark especially given his ability to hit the figures in the high 90s which is needed to land this race. He's a saturday horse and would you believe it still improving at the ripe old age of 7, I think this would top a great year for Mick Easterby and has outstanding claims.

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Cara's Request been hammered in the market today

[punterpete]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Silver Cup Mizra ew @ 14/1 Bet 365 Elusive Prince ew @ 16/1 Paddy Power Mizra - Lightly raced and unexposed compared to some of his rivals Rae Guests gelding has shown some improvement in his last couple of outings. Winner of a minor event at Haydock back in early August he followd this up with a decent 2nd behind Colonel Mak at Ffos Las last time out. Goes off the same mark as he did LTO but is due to go up 2lbs. He has form with cut in the ground so conditions will not be a problem. Elusive Prince - Reacted well when visor fitted for the first time back in August when coming in second over 6F behind Bertie Whittle beaten by a length. Visor was again fitted when taking minor event at Ripon over 6F on what was given as soft ground but judging by the times was faster than that. Visor is fitted again for Silver cup and despite carrying a penalty is still potentialy well handicapped here and despite slight concerns over the ground could go close. Gold Cup Pastoral Player ew @ 18/1 Coral Our Jonathon ew @ 20/1 William Hill Pastoral Player - Been in decent form this season without claiming a big prize but I just have a feeling its a matter of time before he takes a decent handicp at this level. Back at what I believe is his optimum trip and if every thing falls into place fo him can't think of a better place to take your turn for a big handicap success. Our Jonathon - Seems to be getting closer to rediscovering the bistering form displayed when winning 3/4 as a two year old including a listed and a group 3 event. Decent run last time out at Ripon saw him looking like his old self when finishing a length and a half behind Pepper Lane when giving the winner 7lbs in the Great St. Wilfrid. Ground conditions look as though they will be similar to those encountered at Ripon last time out and despite a 3lb rise is now only giving Pepper Lane 2lbs who is half the price. Looks decent value

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) Middle draw a negative in Ayr Gold Cup - Fahey BY JAMES BURN 6:01PM 16 SEP 2011 THERE were few definitive clues regarding the draw on offer for Saturday's William Hill Ayr Gold Cup in Friday's Bronze equivalent, but trainer Richard Fahey, who saddled the first two home, insisted middle numbers would be at a disadvantage. Coolminx, drawn three, flashed up the far side to beat her stands-side stablemate Jeannie Galloway (15) in the Bronze Cup with the pair followed by Esprit De Midas (nine) and Mandalay King (19). Fahey has five low-drawn runners in Saturday's showpiece and is 9-2 with the sponsors to win the race with any of his contenders. "I think that shows there's no advantage with the draw - you just don't want to be in the middle," he said. Friday's card at Ayr also featured a 5f 22-runner handicap, in which runners at either end of the scale dominated. The David Barron-trained Magical Macey won from stall three and was chased home by Fol Hollow (stall four), Rylee Mooch (19) and Mayoman (22). David Barron: no big view on draw Barron, though, was unsure of the effect of the draw. He said: "I think you can read a lot of things into it - it might just have been that the best horses were overthere. "By the time they have all decided the far side is the place to be and they all gallop up there, you might suddenly find you want to be up this side tomorrow. So I wouldn't have a big view." Underfoot conditions softened at Ayr on Friday and the Gold Cup looks set to be run on ground with plenty of give in it. After persistent rain in mid-afternoon, the going was changed to soft, good to soft in places and clerk of the course Emma Marley said: "We had 2.5mm of rain through the afternoon and the forecast is for showers tonight, up to around 2mm. "That will spill over into the morning and we could get another 1mm but the forecast forthe afternoon has improved and it is looking better than it did." To train the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup William Hill: 9-2 Richard Fahey, 7 David Barron, 9 Kevin Ryan, 16 David Nicholls Ayr Silver-Gold Cup double William Hill: 18-1 Richard Fahey, 66-1 David Barron, 80-1 David Nicholls, 100-1 Kevin Ryan My quote from the other day

Thats interesting. My own opinion is that a middle draw is best so that you can go either side or down the middle as may not be that soft come Sat.

:$ think i may have got that sooo wrong after reading above.

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) middle draw poor previous record apart from last 2 years 15 & 17 doing the full trends tonight

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) SILVER CUP I like a couple of big ones in this both drawn in the middle:$ 1.25 E/W GINGER TED 33/1 Ladbrokes BOG 4 PLACES overpriced in my opinion is much better than last run. High enough mark but best trip and ground to suit could go very well has the blinkers on for the first time replacing cheek pieces. 1.25 E/W MAAREK 40/1 Boylesports BOG 5 PLACES Irish trained runner who will be suited by condition and has been in good form looks a lot more to come from this horse. Trainer has brought two horses over to Britain both have been 2nd!

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) 3.20 Ayr Gold Cup Pointers Dont ignore Dandy Nicholls having won 6 of the last 10 races including one year when they didnt enter a single horse. Southern based trainers had a poor record until Clive Cox won in 2009 with Jimmy Styles, since 1999 around 90 horses have tried & produced 2 winners Presto Shinko in 2005 and last year. 7 of the last 12 favourites have been from southern trainers however the long trip north is obviously not favourable. 4yo's have a great record with 10 wins in the last 19 years, that cannot be ignored & as there are not many 3yo's normally entered up at this stage of the season, it pays to go with the 4yo's. 7yo+ have a very poor record with just 1 win in 32 years! Horses carrying higher than 9st 3lb have only 1 won once in last 13 years. Draw The silver cup is normally the best way of tackling the draw bias, notably stalls from 1-11 & 20+ are the ones to consider, middle draws had a poor record until last 2 years when the winner came form 15 & 17. Last years silver cup top 6 were 7-8-25-6-20-9 & The Gold cup was 17-24-8-11-25-13 with the winner held up behind the pace. . Yesterdays Bronze cup the 1st home were 3-15-9-19-27-25. So even looking at those 18 placings, you have 7 drawn 1-9, 6 above 20, 5 in the middle. Previous form Interestingly before 2008 the last 8 winners had bypassed the Royal meeting & the Stewards cup is now the best form line with 7 of the last 13 gold cup winners beaten in that race. Redford last year sidestepped Goodwood but did run at ascot. He then went on to win over 7f. If its form you are looking at 9 of the last 16 finished 4th or higher on latest start. A recent run within 28 days is an excellent pointer as 11 of last 13 have that stat. Favourite backers, dont get out of bed! 1 winner in last 33 years is enough to miss the race & go shopping with the missus! Reducing the field Therefore looking at the best stats, these are the groupings: Ran within 28 days remove Our jonathan, hawkeyethenoo, Tajneed, Pepper lane, LIght from mars, Darajaat, Evens and odds, KAldoun kingdom, 7yo's + ignore Regal Parade, Ancient cross Nicholls entries both scratched already Horses higher than 9st 3lb remove Eton Rifles, Patoral player, Group Therapy, Majestic myles, waffle Thats 16 horses scratched leaving: High Standing (6) placed LTO *ran in stewards) Macs Power (8) placed LTO *ran in stewards Croisultan (7) placed LTO irish Anne of kiev (25) unplaced LTO Diungannon (18) unplaced LTO Son of the cat (9) unplaced lTO *won stewards B race Colonel Mak (15) won LTO *ran in stewards Breathless kiss (26) unplaced LTO Castles in the air (1) unplaced LTO (4th) Below zero (23) unplaced LTO Brave prospector (3) unplaced LTO *ran in stewards Conclusion In conclusion, many to consider however using the key stats, i like Macs Power whom is due one of these races to be honest and also High Standing who has known ability however both are from Newmarket yards which is a worry based on the record of southern trainers. Bets Macs Power 10pts win 14/1 Lads High Standing 5pts ew 22/1 Lads Last years analysis which i posted Analysis - AYR GOLD CUP 2010 The 1st line of the above post sums up how i should have found the winner in reality. Lets look at the profile of the winner REDFORD : Trained by D Nicholls Ridden by Frankie Dettori - won the race last year also Weight 9st 2lb - trend continues only 1 winner in 13 years now ! Draw 17 was a surprise winner as i highlighted middle draws dont win this however the horse was held up on the rail and came though to win, the other 5 home were drawn 24-8-11-25-13. Redford was 3rd LTO and was a recent runner (albeit slightly more than the 22 day trend i highlighted) Ran in the wokingham but not the stewards cup. Has always looked a 7f horse to me also. 3 key trends with Nicholls, weight and LTO stat shows this one was only dismissed on the basis of the draw which i should look at in future as one of the last stages of review. Happy i got the 3rd and 4th home at big prices though.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) AYR GOLD CUP 1pt E/W 40/1 WH 5 PLACES BOG ANNE OF KEIV A real outsider with a real squeak imo. Has been trained for this handled the soft at Ascot in June and down a couple more lbs will be 100% fit for this. 1PT E/W 33/1 CASTLES IN THE AIR 5 PLACES BOG Boyles SPORT Have been keeping an eye on this one starting to run into form for shrewd owner on a fair mark coffin draw but if it gets away on term has a chance. __________________ Rory McIlroy & Darren Clarke NI superstars

[fintron]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) 3.20 Ayr The weight trends say REGAL PARADE is too high in the weights but the question I keep asking myself is, how many of these would have got to within half a length of Delegator in the Duke of York Stakes (Group 2) off level weights this season? The other question I keep asking is, how many times can you back a dual Group 1 winner, who has shown current season form in pattern company, in a handicap off a mark of 108. That is what Regal Parade races off here, the handicapper has slashed him around a stone and he looks reasonably weighted. Coupled with the fact he is a CD winner having won this race in 2008 and loves a bit of cut in the ground (indeed, its a luxury he's rarely been affored this season), he looks the clear value pick in the race for me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) The Ayr Silver Cup 2:15 Ayr - Valery Borzov - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill, 5 places) Another exceptionally tough 6f handicap here and no fewer than 27 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win the £22,000 pot. With plenty of pace being drawn in the low to middle stalls, I think it may pay to side with those racing on the far side - the side which came up trumps in the Bronze Cup yesterday, albeit only by a short-head. The other potential angle to look at is the favouring of prominent racers in yesterdays races, with both of the big-field sprint handicaps being won by horses racing right on the pace and the horses filling up the places doing likewise. That doesn't necessarily mean the same will happen today but it may well occur and it's a handy way of discarding plenty of the runners. Richard Fahey lines up with a total of 7 runners here and trying to read his intentions is impossible. However, he bids to win this race for the third time in five years and I'm backing him to do so with Paul Hanagan's choice - Valery Borzov. The stats aren't on this 7 year old's side, as no horse aged older than 5 has landed the spoils in the past 10 years but many battle-hardened, older animals have filled the places in that time and I'm hopeful that this fellow can buck the trends here. He certainly has the profile of a horse who could run a cracker if on the top of his game and recent efforts suggest he could well be. On his penultimate outing, Valery Borzov broke a losing streak that had stretched well over 2 years when scoring with a bit in hand over the stiff Hamilton track at the end of August (ran around in-front before asserting close home, better than bare result). That was only a C4 contest and this is obviously a lot tougher from effectively an 8lb higher mark with top 3lb claimer Lee Topliss hoping off and Hanagan on board once again. However, he has previously landed big-field handicaps off mark of 92 & 97 (with Dandy Nicholls) when tackling very testing conditions, so a mark of 90 is certainly not beyond his capabilities. This easier track on softer ground will also help and I'm quite sure that he's up to running well past this mark on his day, enough to run into a place at least. Valery Borzov comes here as a much fresher horse than most having only lined out on 4 occasions so far this season. He has run well on all bar his most recent outing and I can forgive that run, as he paid for chasing a crazy 5f pace over 6f at York (ground possibly not ideal also). Paul Hanagan said to Richard Fahey that he rode him all wrong and I'm more than happy to pass over that outing. If building on his penultimate run, there's no doubting that he's up to running a good race and therefore 20/1 looks like a price that's too big. The possible bias towards prominent racers is another plus, as he likes to be up there and can both track the pace, press the pace or make the running. I'd favour him doing the latter as it seems awfully tough for anything to come out of the pack in this ground. The key to the performance of Valery Borzov is soft ground and if it rains even more, this price won't be about for too long. Paul Hanagan picking him ahead of the rest is surely a plus and Fahey has reported that his charge going well at home. The sit in stall 9 should be a grand place to be and he has plenty to suit, more than most 20/1 shots in the field. I'll play small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll go well. My old favourite Cheveton (14/1) is in with a great shout if getting a nice tow into the race from his high draw but I've a feeling the far-side will be favoured and I'll stick to my guns with that. Ginger Ted (33/1) is another who looks capable of getting involved if he's able to make up ground on the leaders from his likely position towards the rear but that's what has put me off backing him. It may just prove impossible to do so and it's too big of a risk, although he is a massive price, so a tiny stakes bet will do no harm. Regardless, hopefully the Fahey/Hanagan partnership will be the one to come up trumps.

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) The Ayr Gold Cup 3:20 Ayr - Brave Prospector - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Boylesports, 5 places) Another crazily tough handicap here and I'm going to take a chance on Brave Prospector coming back to form. I've always thought quite a bit of this 6 year old but he hasn't done much of note since leaving Jane Chapple-Hyam in June to run under the guidance of Richard Fahey. However, he now returns to a more conventional track for the first time for this yard and he's so much better on these flat, galloping tracks - as his record suggests. This alone would be reason enough to take a bit of a punt at a massive price but he's also getting some cut in the ground, which is no bad thing at all (even though previous connections say he's a fast ground horse). Richard Fahey said in his SportingLife column that "Brave Prospector doesn't seem to want to race, he tends to sulk. We're going to try and be positive with him to get him to run a good race." The last bit is what I want to see, as the return to positive tactics would surely help him. All 3 of his turf wins have come when tracking the leaders (in rear all starts for this yard - at tracks favouring front-runners) and although he seems capable of running decent races when waited with, I'm 100% sure that he's much more effective when running down the pace at an earlier stage. His ability to get further than this trip is also a plus and this should provide an adequate stamina test, even though he's not lacking for speed at all. It's just a question of whether he puts it all in. Brave Prospector has numerous efforts that would see him run a solid race here. He has even finished a close up 3rd in a 20 runner Group 3 contest when waited with towards the rear (traveled best into contention, effort petered out after being messed about) and although that was a couple of years ago now, his ability is still bound to be there. It certainly looked as if it was when he was 3rd in a 6f Listed race back in April and despite recent efforts (last twice) at the tricky Goodwood track being poor (ran a weird race there before), it's easily forgiven. He's also running off bottom weight here from a mark of 97 and when he's on song, there's no doubting that he's much better than this mark. It'll be very tough for Brave Prospector to beat some of the classy and potentially classy animals that line up here but 50/1 is just a fair way too big for a horse with plenty of talent. Tony Hamilton takes the ride and he's prone to the odd big-priced winner and there'd be no better place to get another one! Minimal each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run a good race. It wouldn't be one bit surprising to see him disappoint though, so it's not a bet that I can even be confident in to run decently. Of the rest, High Standing (22/1) was my second choice and isn't without a chance of going well.

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition) James coining it in on his tipping line :loon *Link Removed*

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

James coining it in on his tipping line :loon

That's not the jockey, that's Monte :)