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System 2 Lay the draw


Cavendish

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Results October 17th 2010 Not the best day ever; again a small margin of error had Rennes gone onto win then a 3.7 loss would have been coverted to a 7pt profit! Honestly not worried I am confident I can turn the small loss into a profit by the end of the month

System 2 Results October 17

th 2010

3.2

Lens

3.3

Rennes

2.5

Draw 0 - 0

Rennes

-3.3

3.0

Nice

3.3

Saint Etienne

2.7

Lost 2 – 1

Saint Etienne

Void

4.8

Kasimpasa

4

Trabzonspor

1.8

Won 0 - 7

Trabzonspor

0.8

Total

-2.5

Main Bets Results October 17

th 2010

3.2

Lens

3.3

Rennes

2.5

Draw 0 - 0

Rennes

-2

4.8

Kasimpasa

4

Trabzonspor

1.8

Won 0 - 7

Trabzonspor

0.8

Total

-1.2

Total Staked for October

Staked

Returned

R.O.I

System 1

0.6

-0.6

-10% R.O.I

System 2

7.6

-2.5

-32% R.O.I

System 3

n/a

n/a

n/a

Main Bets

3

-1.2

-40% R.O.I

Combined

11.2

-4.3

-38% R.O.I

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw

System 2 Selections October 23rd 2010

2.3

Tournai

3.7

Standard Wette

3.5

Belgium

Standard Wette

3.5

Turnhout

3.6

Oud-Heverlee

2.2

Belgium

Oud-Heverlee

2.5

Roeselare

3.4

Oostende

2.2

Belgium

Oostende

2.7

M Boleslav

3.0

Plzen

2.6

Czech

Plzen

4

Enosis Paralimni

3.8

Anorthosis

2.0

Cyprus

Anorthosis

3.7

Nafta

3.7

Maribor

2.0

Slovenia

Maribor

2.2

Lens

3.2

Nice

3.8

France

Nice

2.7

Widzew Lodz

3.2

Jagiellonia B

2.6

Poland

Jagiellonia B

3.0

Xamax

3.6

Luzern

2.2

Swizerland

Luzern

2.6

Sion

3.3

FC Zurich

2.6

Swizerland

FC Zurich

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I have had to rush these selections, already missed the English games (probably a good thing; would have made a small loss) Thought I needed to post as October has nearly passed us by.

System 3 Selections October 23rd 2010

2.3

Tournai

3.7

Standard Wette

3.5

Belgium

Standard Wette

2.5

Roeselare

3.4

Oostende

2.2

Belgium

Oostende

2.7

M Boleslav

3.0

Plzen

2.6

Czech

Plzen

2.2

Lens

3.2

Nice

3.8

France

Nice

2.7

Widzew Lodz

3.2

Jagiellonia B

2.6

Poland

Jagiellonia B

2.4

Slovan Bratislava

3.3

Zilina

2.8

Slovakia

Zilina

2.6

Sion

3.3

FC Zurich

2.6

Swizerland

FC Zurich

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Late as usual, should be more to follow; I know Hamburg are a goal down but they are my selection

Selections October 30th System 2

3.3

Koln

3.5

Hamburg

2.3

Germany

Hamburg

2.5

MTK Hungaria

3.5

Zalaegerszeg

2.7

Hungary

Zalaegerszeg

Selections October 30th System 3

2.5

MTK Hungaria

3.5

Zalaegerszeg

2.7

Hungary

Zalaegerszeg

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Just the four selections today all System 2

Selections October 30

th System 2

4.3

Panionios

3.5

AEK Athens

2.0

Greece

AEK Athens

3.6

FC Brasov

3.3

FC Timisoara

2.2

Romania

FC Timisoara

4.3

Kasimpasaspor

3.6

Kayserispor

2.0

Turkey

Kayserispor

1pt double

VÃ¥lerenga & Rosenborg

2.7

Norway

VÃ¥lerenga & Rosenborg

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw

Results October 30th System 2

3.3

Koln

3.5

Hamburg

2.3

Germany

Hamburg

Lost 1 – 0

Void

2.5

MTK Hungaria

3.5

Zalaegerszeg

2.7

Hungary

Zalaegerszeg

Won 3 – 4

2.7

Results October 30th System 3

2.5

MTK Hungaria

3.5

Zalaegerszeg

2.7

Hungary

Zalaegerszeg

Won 3 – 4

2.7

Results October 31

st System 2

4.3

Panionios

3.5

AEK Athens

2.0

Greece

AEK Athens

Lost 1 – 0

Void

3.6

FC Brasov

3.3

FC Timisoara

2.2

Romania

FC Timisoara

Draw 0 – 0

-3.3

4.3

Kasimpasaspor

3.6

Kayserispor

2.0

Turkey

Kayserispor

Won 1 – 2

2.0

1pt double VÃ¥lerenga & Rosenborg

2.7

Norway

Lost

-1

Total

3.1

Tables

Total Staked for October

Staked

Returned

R.O.I

System 1

0.6

-0.6

-10% R.O.I

System 2

60.0

7.1

11.8% R.O.I

System 3

19.9

4.4

22.0% R.O.I

Main Bets

3

-1.2

-40%

Combined

83.5

9.7

11.6% R.O.I

Total Staked for October– Including Void Bets

Void

Staked

Returned

R.O.I

System 2

23.3

36.7

7.1

19.3% R.O.I

System 3

2.6

17.3

4.4

25.0% R.O.I

Main Bets

N/A

3

-1.2

-40.0% R.O.I

Combined

25.9

57

9.7

17.0% R.O.I

Running Totals – Including Void Bets

Void

Staked

Returned

R.O.I

System 2

76.3

116.0

23.0

19.8% R.O.I

System 3

21.8

69.6

15.4

22.1% R.O.I

Main Bets

N/A

9

-2.1

-21% R.O.I

Combined

98.1

194.6

36.3

18.6% R.O.I

Two months gone and a return of 36.3 pts profit; before I started posting on Punters Lounge I had a return of 35 pts for August. My goal is to return over 144 pts over a calendar year. I should have been posting a record month for October after the weekend results I need to find more time and be more positive with my selections.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: System 2 Lay the draw I missed Aue 2/1 playing away at Karlsruher; to late now the game has already started. Tours were available earlier in the week around 7/4 As I have moved forum (by request) I will explain over the weekend how the "systems" work; think explanations in post one are a little complicated.

System 2 November 12

th

3.2

Grenoble

3.2

Tours

2.5

France

Tours

4.0

Konyaspor

3.7

Kayserispor

2.0

Turkey

Kayserispor

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Zaprann81 you will probably more confused once you have read below Explanation of System. First of all though I have labelled them Systems; they are not, they are my own researched selections. I call them systems as I have not come up with a better name. I stumbled across this method whilst checking my recorded results. It may seem a little complicated but is very simple; putting it into words to make it sound simple is another matter. System 2 (laying the draw) All I am doing is buying insurance against my selection losing; should my selection lose my stake money is returned. Criteria; the odds for a draw must be a maximum of 4.0 (3/1). I generally do not go higher than 3.8 (11/4) For example; Grenoble 3.2 The Draw 3.2 Tours 2.5 My selection – Tours, Bet - 1pt win on Tours and as the odds for the draw are only 3.2 (Betfair) a 1pt lay bet on the draw. Total staked 3.2pts Three possible outcomes; Grenoble win – 1pt loss (backing Tours) and 1pt gain (lay bet on the draw won) so no overall loss or gain; I call them void bets Tours win – (1.5pt backing Tours) and (1pt lay bet on the draw won) Total profit 2.5pts Match Drawn – (1pt backing Tours) and (2.2pt lay bet on the draw loss) Total loss 3.2pt Any game that falls outside the criteria becomes a strait 1pt win bet As with any betting you need liquidity in the market, this can be a problem with some of the smaller leagues, some leagues like Bosnia are not covered by Betfair, in which case I have to use the best odds available with bookmakers System 3 (laying the opposing team) Really simple, only criteria; maximum odds of 3.0 (2/1) of the team I am opposing; Same principles as System 2 only this time not only do we back our selection we place a lay bet on our opponents providing the odds are no higher than 3.0 (2/1) Some selections will fall into both systems, some would view this as a negative but I take the positive. October 23rd Standard Wetten fell into both systems and won with odds of 3.5 (5/2); giving me a total profit of 7pts. At the end of the day the staking (or outlay) is high and the R.O.I will never be high; though 18.6% is not bad so far! I will judge myself by how many points I can make; my target is 144pts over a calendar year, to date 36.3 (minus results below) after two months.

Results System 2 November 12

th

3.2

Grenoble

3.2

Tours

2.5

France

Tours

Draw 2–2

-3.2

4.0

Konyaspor

3.7

Kayserispor

2.0

Turkey

Kayserispor

Won 0-1

2.0

Total

-1.2

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Not 100% confident, Man U & Luton should be lay bets only but will leave them in System 3

System 2 Selections November 19

th

3.3

Kapfenberg

3.4

Ried

2.2

Austria

Ried

5.0

Germinal Beerschot

4.0

Anderlecht

1.7

Belgium

Anderlecht

5.4

Charleroi

4.0

Genk

1.7

Belgium

Genk

2.2

Lokeren

3.7

KV Mechelen

3.5

Belgium

Lokeren

2.3

FK Leotar

4.0

Borac Banjaluka

2.8

Bosnia

Borac Banjaluka

2.4

FK Velez Mostar

4.3

FK Sarajevo

2.5

Bosnia

FK Sarajevo

2.0

M Boleslav

3.7

Slavia Prague

4.0

Czech

M Boleslav

2.4

Enosis Paralimni

3.4

AEK Larnaca

2.8

Cyprus

AEK Larnaca

2.2

Nancy

3.2

Valenciennes

3.5

France

Valenciennes

2.4

Saint Etienne

3.2

Auxerre

3.6

France

Auxerre

3.3

Toulouse

3.2

Marseille

2.4

France

Marseille

2.2

Istres

3.4

Bastia

3.5

France Cup

Bastia

1.7

Bochum

3.7

Ingolstadt

6.0

Germany

Bochum

2.4

Paderborn

3.4

Greuther Furth

3.2

Germany

Paderborn

3.0

De Graafschap

3.7

Roda

2.6

Holland

Roda

2.7

FK Metalac

3.5

FK Sloboda P Sevojno

2.7

Serbia

FK Sloboda P Sevojno

2.5

Nitra

3.3

Banska Bystrica

2.6

Slovakia

Banska Bystrica

2.7

Ruzomberok

3.4

Slovan Bratislava

2.5

Slovakia

Slovan Bratislava

3.2

Walsall

3.7

Carlisle

2.2

England

Carlisle

1.9

Kidderminster

4.0

Eastbourne Borough

4.5

England

Kidderminster

System 3 Selections November 19

th

2.3

FK Leotar

4.0

Borac Banjaluka

2.8

Bosnia

Borac Banjaluka

2.4

FK Velez Mostar

4.3

FK Sarajevo

2.5

Bosnia

FK Sarajevo

2.4

Enosis Paralimni

3.4

AEK Larnaca

2.8

Cyprus

AEK Larnaca

2.2

Nancy

3.2

Valenciennes

3.5

France

Valenciennes

2.4

Saint Etienne

3.2

Auxerre

3.6

France

Auxerre

2.7

FK Metalac

3.5

FK Sloboda P Sevojno

2.7

Serbia

FK Sloboda P Sevojno

2.5

Nitra

3.3

Banska Bystrica

2.6

Slovakia

Banska Bystrica

2.7

Ruzomberok

3.4

Slovan Bratislava

2.5

Slovakia

Slovan Bratislava

1.2

Manchester United

7.0

Wigan

18

England

Wigan

1.3

Luton

5.0

Histon

15

England

Histon

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw A small 3pt profit overall; had Reid not thrown a three goal lead away; conceded two goals in the injury time, then I would have returned a modest 10pts

Results System 2 November 20

th

3.3

Kapfenberg

3.4

Ried

2.2

Austria

Ried

Draw 3-3

-3.4

5.0

Germinal Beerschot

4.0

Anderlecht

1.7

Belgium

Anderlecht

Won 0-1

0.7

5.4

Charleroi

4.0

Genk

1.7

Belgium

Genk

Won 1-3

0.7

2.2

Lokeren

3.7

KV Mechelen

3.5

Belgium

Lokeren

Won 3-1

2.2

2.3

FK Leotar

4.0

Borac Banjaluka

2.8

Bosnia

Borac Banjaluka

Lost 2-1

-1

2.4

FK Velez Mostar

4.3

FK Sarajevo

2.5

Bosnia

FK Sarajevo

Won 1-2

1.5

2.0

M Boleslav

3.7

Slavia Prague

4.0

Czech

M Boleslav

Won 3-1

2.0

2.4

Enosis Paralimni

3.4

AEK Larnaca

2.8

Cyprus

AEK Larnaca

Won 0-2

2.8

2.2

Nancy

3.2

Valenciennes

3.5

France

Valenciennes

Lost 2-0

Void

2.4

Saint Etienne

3.2

Auxerre

3.6

France

Auxerre

Draw 1-1

-3.2

3.3

Toulouse

3.2

Marseille

2.4

France

Marseille

Won 0-1

2.4

2.2

Istres

3.4

Bastia

3.5

France Cup

Bastia

Lost 2-0

Void

1.7

Bochum

3.7

Ingolstadt

6.0

Germany

Bochum

Lost 1-4

Void

2.4

Paderborn

3.4

Greuther Furth

3.2

Germany

Paderborn

Lost 0-4

Void

3.0

De Graafschap

3.7

Roda

2.6

Holland

Roda

Lost 3-1

Void

2.7

FK Metalac

3.5

FK P Sevojno

2.7

Serbia

FK P Sevojno

Lost 3-2

Void

2.5

Nitra

3.3

Banska Bystrica

2.6

Slovakia

Banska Bystrica

Won 0-2

2.6

2.7

Ruzomberok

3.4

Slovan Bratislava

2.5

Slovakia

Slovan Bratislava

Draw 0-0

-3.4

3.2

Walsall

3.7

Carlisle

2.2

England

Carlisle

Lost 2-1

Void

1.9

Kidderminster

4.0

Eastbourne Boro

4.5

England

Kidderminster

Won 2-1

0.9

Total

4.8

Results System 3 November 20

th

2.3

FK Leotar

4.0

Borac Banjaluka

2.8

Bosnia

Borac Banjaluka

Lost 2-1

-2.3

2.4

FK Velez Mostar

4.3

FK Sarajevo

2.5

Bosnia

FK Sarajevo

Won 1-2

2.5

2.4

Enosis Paralimni

3.4

AEK Larnaca

2.8

Cyprus

AEK Larnaca

Won 0-2

2.8

2.2

Nancy

3.2

Valenciennes

3.5

France

Valenciennes

Lost 2-0

-2.2

2.4

Saint Etienne

3.2

Auxerre

3.6

France

Auxerre

Draw 1-1

Void

2.7

FK Metalac

3.5

FK P Sevojno

2.7

Serbia

FK P Sevojno

Lost 3-2

-2.7

2.5

Nitra

3.3

Banska Bystrica

2.6

Slovakia

Banska Bystrica

Won 0-2

2.6

2.7

Ruzomberok

3.4

Slovan Bratislava

2.5

Slovakia

Slovan Bratislava

Draw 0-0

Void

1.2

Manchester United

7.0

Wigan

18

England

Wigan

Lost 2-0

-1.2

1.3

Luton

5.0

Histon

15

England

Histon

Lost 5-1

-1.3

Total

-1.8

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Cavedish: "Grenoble win – 1pt loss (backing Tours) and 1pt gain (lay bet on the draw won) so no overall loss or gain; I call them void bets" Is is not actually "void"... Shouldnt you include comission 5% on all non-draws? And if you bet 1pt as "insurance" laying draw then it is ~0.05pt loss. Unless you perform all these actions on the same market.

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw

Cavedish: "Grenoble win – 1pt loss (backing Tours) and 1pt gain (lay bet on the draw won) so no overall loss or gain; I call them void bets" Is is not actually "void"... Shouldnt you include comission 5% on all non-draws? And if you bet 1pt as "insurance" laying draw then it is ~0.05pt loss. Unless you perform all these actions on the same market.
Hi Mulkis, I cannot argue with you, no commission is deducted off any winning bets. To be honest it is just far simpler for me, as for the "void" bets, yes you also right but again for simplicity, I just log them as "void". To offset my laziness most of my winning (and losing) selections are only average odds! Thanks for your response Mulkis, I know my “systems” are not fool proof, eventually I want to narrow my selection process down, I can spend 3 to 4 hours some weeks just finding my selections. I might in the long term only use leagues that are covered by Pinnacle.
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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Cavedish, I've found you system2 quite prommisisng in the beginning, but... I've made some backtest. And results from backtest are quite dissapointing. Generally it shows that System2 gives no advantage in comparison with simple Fav backing. I've tested all England and major Europe leagues for 2009/2010 season. Basically success of system2 depends on number of draws in any specific league. But overall, as i said, results are quite negative. I would encourage you to do some backtest, otherwise following system2 could be just huge waiste of time.

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw

System 2 Selections December 4th

4.0

AEP Paphos

4.0

AEK Larnaca

1.9

Cyprus

AEK Larnaca

3.0

Charleroi

3.6

Cercle Bruges

2.3

Belgium

Cercle Bruges

5.0

Portogruaro

3.4

Atalanta

1.8

Italy

Atalanta

1.9

Basel

4.0

Young Boys

4.0

Swizterland

Young Boys

1.4

Real Madrid

5.4

Valencia

9.0

Spain

Valencia

2.2

Borussia M

4.0

Hannover 96

3.4

Germany

Hannover 96

2.3

VfB Stuttgart

3.7

Hoffenheim

3.2

Germany

Hoffenheim

2.5

Lens

3.2

Auxerre

3.0

France

Auxerre

System 3 Selections December 4th

1.9

Basel

4.0

Young Boys

4.0

Swizterland

Young Boys

1.4

Real Madrid

5.4

Valencia

9.0

Spain

Valencia

2.2

Borussia M

4.0

Hannover 96

3.4

Germany

Hannover 96

2.3

VfB Stuttgart

3.7

Hoffenheim

3.2

Germany

Hoffenheim

2.5

Lens

3.2

Auxerre

3.0

France

Auxerre

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw

Cavedish' date=' I've found you system2 quite prommisisng in the beginning, but... I've made some backtest. And results from backtest are quite dissapointing. Generally it shows that System2 gives no advantage in comparison with simple Fav backing. I've tested all England and major Europe leagues for 2009/2010 season. Basically success of system2 depends on number of draws in any specific league. But overall, as i said, results are quite negative. I would encourage you to do some backtest, otherwise following system2 could be just huge waiste of time.[/quote'] Hi Mulkis, Time can only tell, thanks for your input (even if though a little negative.;)) Today’s selections are a little rushed, note though; mostly decent prices. On the whole my records do show a decent return (I posted Aris Solinaka in mid week; another forum 14/1) the two major obstacles I find are; 1. Time (both finding and then finalising selections) 2. Odds availability.
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 months later...

Re: System 2 Lay the draw Very speculative! I have noticed this morning the odds for the team winning at half time to be reasonably generous; I may take a look at this as the afternoon progresses, as most I my selections are outsiders they could be winning at H/T before going on to lose F/T. I cannot say I am over confident but a couple of wins should bring me in around level.

19.03.2011

1.9

Hamburger

4.0

Koln

4.5

Germany

19.03.2011

2.1

Frankfurt

3.5

St Pauli

4.0

Germany

19.03.2011

1.5

Dortmund

4.9

Mainz

8.0

Germany

19.03.2011

1.4

Atalanta

5.0

Piacenza

9.0

Italy 2

19.03.2011

2.5

Falkirk

3.5

Dundee FC

3.0

Scotland 1

19.03.2011

2.0

Mallorca

3.6

Zaragoza

4.0

Spain

19.03.2011

2.3

Middlesbrough

3.7

Watford

3.0

England

19.03.2011

1.7

Ipswich

4.0

Scunthorpe

5.0

England

19.03.2011

2.8

Brentford

3.5

Leyton Orient

2.6

England

19.03.2011

1.5

Southampton

5.0

Sheff Wed

7.0

England

19.03.2011

2.0

Toulouse

3.5

Nice

5.0

France

19.03.2011

1.8

Lyon

3.7

Rennes

6.0

France

19.03.2011

Buducnost Bano

DNB

Slavija

4.0

Bosnia
As mentioned before I also run a separate system alongside the one above. I could have posted more selections; teams that I am confident will win today are;

19.03.2011

4.0

Xamax

4.0

FC Zurich

1.9

Switzerland

19.03.2011

3.5

FC Brüssel

3.6

Waasland-Beveren

2.1

Belgium

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Well I did say they were speculative! What a disaster, though I have had worse! I know where I went wrong today; I tried to fit my selections to meet my criteria, hopefully lesson learned. Buducnost Bano my only winners played first; talk about build your hopes up.

19.03.2011

1.9

Hamburger

4.0

Koln

4.5

6 - 2 Lost

-1.9

-7.5

19.03.2011

2.1

Frankfurt

3.5

St Pauli

4.0

2 - 1 Lost

-2.1

-9.6

19.03.2011

1.5

Dortmund

4.9

Mainz

8.0

1 - 1 Draw

0

0

-9.6

19.03.2011

1.4

Atalanta

5.0

Piacenza

9.0

3 - 0 Lost

-1.4

-11.0

19.03.2011

2.5

Falkirk

3.5

Dundee FC

3.0

2 - 2 Draw

0

0

-11.0

19.03.2011

2.0

Mallorca

3.6

Zaragoza

4.0

1 - 0 Lost

-2

-13.0

19.03.2011

2.3

Middlesbrough

3.7

Watford

3.0

2 - 1 Lost

-2.3

-15.3

19.03.2011

1.7

Ipswich

4.0

Scunthorpe

5.0

2 - 0 Lost

-1.7

-18.0

19.03.2011

2.8

Brentford

3.5

Leyton Orient

2.6

2 - 1 Lost

-2.8

-20.3

19.03.2011

1.5

Southampton

5.0

Sheff Wed

7.0

2 - 0 Lost

-1.5

-21.8

19.03.2011

2.0

Toulouse

3.5

Nice

5.0

1 - 1 Draw

0

0

-21.8

19.03.2011

1.8

Lyon

3.7

Rennes

6.0

1 - 1 Draw

0

0

-21.8

19.03.2011

Buducnost Bano

DNB

Slavija

4.0

0 - 1 Won

3.0

-18.8

3.0

-15.7

-18.8

-15.7

-12.7

19.03.2011

4.0

Xamax

4.0

FC Zurich

1.9

1 - 2 Won

0.90

0.90

19.03.2011

3.5

FC Brüssel

3.6

Waasland-Beveren

2.1

3 - 2 Lost

-1.00

-.10

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Re: System 2 Lay the draw Never had time today; I would have clawed back a few points. Yes I did have some losers but some good winners; just look at the Zeljeznicar v Sloboda 11/1 (Bosnia) Sloboda scoring in the 90min! You can now have an idea of where I am coming from; I also missed a 10/1 last week from Bosnia. Yesterday were bad selections! Easy to say after the event but I would have made a decent return today. Having said that Rosenborg would have been a selection and after 33mins are currently a goal down (what price a come back?) I might not post on Saturday’s in the future apart from my real bankers; there are simply too many games to sort, unless I can discipline myself to certain leagues (must keep Bosnia though!)

19.03.2011

Zrinjski

DNB

Sarajevo

3.75

4 - 2 Lost

-1

-19.8

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