Backing Drifters

[south_eastern_ram]

Looked at the 4.15 at Chester last night and my initial thought was that Greensward would be a likely small price, 5/2, 11/4 something around those prices. The price is currently at 5/1, was smaller this morning, and on form alone looks a great e/w bet in the 8 runner field. However, something doesnt seem right to me that a lightly raced, progressive Meehan runner who won comfortably last time out has drifted to such a big price. I'm struggling to find reasons for the drift, the race won lto wasnt the strongest, is up in grade and there's been a bit of a move for Great Charm (7's into 4's) is all i've come to. Now, all of the above is obviously just my opinion, others out there might see the drift as deserved but my confidence has been dented slightly by this and im unsure about making the bet even though i think 5/1 is a great price. Was just looking to gain peoples opinions on backing horses you think will be strong in the market and what you would do if in this situation. I've backed drifters many times but usually i expect them to drift so not normally put off.

[Lars]

Re: Backing Drifters Backing drifters which are slowly drifting throughout the day is fine really in my view, often any "gamble" may not occur until shortly before the race anyway, so they'll be very little money down on it like 4 hours before the race. It is a bit risky from a betting point of view as the horse may not just be fancied at all but some yards do operate in such a manner. Backing massive drifters who drift in the last 10 minutes are another story altogether...