Mix N Match II

[Subtlebydesign]

Overview

Back for another attempt at this, the first failing before it had even started. This strategy and method is based on a combination of all the different strategies that I have come across in the last year or so. I don’t have the nerves for an 'all-in', well not a full 'all-in' on every bet so I have bought together various strategies into one which I believe will work for me. I have tried this offline previously and have completed, what I will refer to as Stage 5, but then hit a loser during the next. This was offline and was just a bit of fun but now I want to try it again. A profit was made but has been tweaking the theory to make it better. I know the sports that I am good at and so I need a disciplined way to go forward with this and make it work. Objective I have £100 in my WBX account so the objective is this, turn £100 into well this will be explained below. A profit will do and there are no time limits. If I take a week to find one solid bet then that is acceptable however I suspect that this will not be the case. I may even use some of the expert tips made by the various people on this forum but possibly backing them in play when certain conditions are met. Selections will be posted as and when a solid opportunity is highlighted. This maybe one a day or one a week but as long as the selection is solid I will deal with the outcome whatever it be. Start Bank £100 split into £5 per pot so 20 shots at making this work Target Bank As I have said the target is irrelevant, a successful 10 Stages would be superb. I always find a target the undoing of a strategy as you are chasing all the time to stay on track. I will have short term targets which will be manageable and achievable as long as the winners keep coming in. The rest will take care of itself. Process There are 10 stages each consisting of 18 bets. Average odds of 1.10 will be used as this will achieve the desired outcome. At each stage the target is to treble the initial bank within the 18 bets. The 18 bets will run its full course whether the bank is achieved before the full 18 or not at all. At the end of a complete stage, 2 things will happen; 1. The initial bank will be removed from the bank at this point. 2. Any surplus over and above the target will also be removed thereby creating an Offline Bank. An example: Stage 1 - £5 into £15 then bank £5 (18) Offline Bank: £5 Stage 2 - £10 into £30 then bank £10 (18) Offline Bank: £15 Stage 3 - £20 into £60 then bank £20 (18) Offline Bank: £35 Stage 4 - £40 into £120 then bank £40 (18) Offline Bank: £75 Stage 5 - £80 into £240 then bank £80 (18) Offline Bank: £155 Stage 6 - £160 into £480 then bank £160 (18) Offline Bank: £315 Stage 7 - £320 into £960 then bank £320 (18) Offline Bank: £635 Stage 8 - £640 into £1,920 then bank £640 (18) Offline Bank: £1,275 Stage 9 - £1,280 into £3,840 then bank £1,280 (18) Offline Bank: £2,555 Stage 10 - £2,560 into £7680 then bank £2,560 (18) Offline Bank: £5,115 If so assume average odds at the end of Stage 1 a balance of £25.61 would be accrued. The surplus (£25.61 – £15) for Stage 1 is £10.61. This would also be added to the Offline Bank. If a full set of 10 stages, 180 bets were completed with average odds for every bet of 1.10, an Offline Bank of £15,969.91 would be achieved. Add this onto the completion of Stage 10 which would amount to £13,112.76 and overall return for a full set would be £29,082.67.

Strategy All calculations are based on 1.10 for simplicity but you can hit all targets with 1.07 shots. The surplus at the end of each stage is smaller but I will aim for 1.10. I feel that's a comfortable level to strive for, however I suspect that the odds may go as low as 1.07 or maybe lower if a solid selection is found. To say that these will be very hot favourites is an understatement. I know hot favourites go down but I intend to dodge the bullet that brings this down by being selective. Sports NFL, Cricket, Football, Rugby League, Tennis, Golf, Rugby Union, Snooker, Darts. In the main most bets will be on Football, Rugby and Tennis.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B01] J. Melzer vs. R. Federer - R. Federer £5.00 @ 1.07 (WBX)

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B01] J. Melzer vs. R. Federer - R. Federer £5.00 @ 1.07 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.33 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 1 Bets Won : 1 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£0.33 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £5.00 Average Odds : 1.07 Current Bank : £5.33

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B02] R. Nadal vs. F Lopez - R. Nadal £5.33 @ 1.05 (WBX) Forgot to say, no reasonings for any selections they are favs and solid ones at that too.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B02] R. Nadal vs. F Lopez - R. Nadal £5.33 @ 1.05 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.25 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 2 Bets Won : 2 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£0.59 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £10.33 Average Odds : 1.06 Current Bank : £5.59 Need to get average odds up to at least 1.07 to achieve the stage target.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B03] C. Wozniacki vs. D. Cibulkova - C. Wozniacki £5.59 @ 1.07 (WBX)

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B03] C. Wozniacki vs. D. Cibulkova - C. Wozniacki £5.59 @ 1.07 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.37 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 3 Bets Won : 3 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£0.96 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £15.92 Average Odds : 1.06 Current Bank : £5.96

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B04] R. Nadal vs. F. Verdasco - R. Nadal £5.96 @ 1.09 (WBX)

[DC]

Re: Mix N Match II Hi! I feel this well-layed out thread deserves a comment! It looks like you have thought long and hard about the strategy, rather than piling 'all-in' every bet so I wish you luck with this... Am I correct in assuming that, say you acheive stage 4, for example, but fail at some point during stage 5, you would have an offline bank of £75 and yet only your 1st of £5 'lives'? Thus, leaving you with £95 + £75 still to continue future efforts?

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II

Hi! I feel this well-layed out thread deserves a comment! It looks like you have thought long and hard about the strategy, rather than piling 'all-in' every bet so I wish you luck with this... Am I correct in assuming that, say you acheive stage 4, for example, but fail at some point during stage 5, you would have an offline bank of £75 and yet only your 1st of £5 'lives'? Thus, leaving you with £95 + £75 still to continue future efforts?

Danny, thanks for your comments, much appreciated. I have thought long and hard about it and tried to make it better but can't and this is the result. Your assumption is absolutely spot on you would have an offline bank of £75 from the 1st life. This would as you quite rightly suggested would leave a bank of £95 + £75 still to continue. One other thing, every bet at odds of 1.07 would achieve a stage target. In fact it would achieve every stage, 180 bets in total. Anything above 1.07 would also leave a surplus bank.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B04] R. Nadal vs. F. Verdasco - R. Nadal £5.96 @ 1.09 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.51 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 4 Bets Won : 4 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£1.47 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £21.88 Average Odds : 1.07 Current Bank : £6.47

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B05] V. Williams vs. K. Clijsters - K. Clijsters £6.47 @ 1.12 (WBX) Taken IR 6-4, 6-7, 3-4

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B05] V. Williams vs. K. Clijsters - K. Clijsters £6.47 @ 1.12 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.74 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 5 Bets Won : 5 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£2.20 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £28.34 Average Odds : 1.08 Current Bank : £7.20 An image is available for uploading should anyone require proof. It would have been posted already but only just realised I am unable to post attachments.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B06] R. Nadal vs. M. Youzhny - R. Nadal £7.20 @ 1.06 (WBX) Only person who could possibly beat Nadal is Fed who maybe the next bet in the sequence but may take it in running

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B06] R. Nadal vs. M. Youzhny - R. Nadal £7.20 @ 1.06 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.41 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 6 Bets Won : 6 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£2.61 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £35.55 Average Odds : 1.07 Current Bank : £7.61

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B07] R. Nadal vs. N. Djojovic - R. Nadal £7.61 @ 1.31 (WBX) Dont do write ups but Nadal 3-0

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B07] R. Nadal vs. N. Djokovic - R. Nadal £7.61 @ 1.31 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £2.24 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 7 Bets Won : 7 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£4.86 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £43.16 Average Odds : 1.11 Current Bank : £9.86

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B08] Kilmarnock vs. Celtic - X2 £9.86 @ 1.10 (WBX) Can't see Celtic losing this match. Generally Celtic walk away from this match with nothing less than a draw. Added incetive of keeping the pressure on Rangers and returning to the top of the league. Psychological advantage so anything less than a draw is a failure. Cant see it happening. Incidentally over the last 5 years Celtic have a very good record in this fixture.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B08] Kilmarnock vs. Celtic - X2 £9.86 @ 1.10 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £0.94 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 8 Bets Won : 8 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£5.79 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £53.02 Average Odds : 1.10 Current Bank : £10.79 So far so good, nearly a slip up with Celtic but they came through as predicted however not as comfortable as first thought. Can now afford to hit 1.04 shots for the remaining 10 bets of this sequence. However not going to rest on my laurels and continue to take what I think is a solid selection. If I continue to average 1.10 a bank of £26.75 would be accrued with the stage target of £15 being achieved after 13 bets. Would like to here your thoughts; still a small way from achieving the target but do I complete the stage early when the target is achieved or should I continue as my rules state.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B09] Chelsea vs. Blackpool - Chelsea £10.79 @ 1.10 (WBX) Danny Cash has chosen this and contemplated it myself. Just cannot see any other result than Chelsea hammering them. Yeah Blackpool have bottle and will probably surprise a few teams this season but not today.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B09] Chelsea vs. Blackpool - Chelsea £10.79 @ 1.10 (WBX) - Won (after commission): £1.03 Stage 1 Progress Start Bank : £5.00 Target Bank : £15.00 Bets Placed : 9 Bets Won : 9 Bets Lost : 0 Profit/Loss : +£6.82 Surplus : £0 Offline Bank : £0 Total Stakes : £63.81 Average Odds : 1.10 Current Bank : £11.82

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B10] Arsenal vs. West Brom - 1X £11.82 @ 1.06 (WBX) Quite simply, Arsenal will not lose this match so taking Arsenal and the Draw is as safe as it gets. Famous last words but worthy of a shot.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II End of the road on this one and anyway I jinxed it straight away. Must have had a feeling about it before hand. Back with another attempt shortly. Learning points Arsenal are black listed indefinitely. They can be superb one day but they can also be absolute tripe. That match against West Brom, means no chance of winning the Premiership now or anytime in the near future until they realise they have to win games like that. No commitment and desperate need for a replacement for Almunia. Also need to concetrate on just achieving the goal and talk about what to do when I get there and not before. Big mistake complacency.

[DC]

Re: Mix N Match II I think what you have is a solid foundation for a strategy so stick with it my friend. :hope

[grianaig]

Re: Mix N Match II Unlucky Subtlebydesign Think Arsenal must have bust thousands of bets yesterday with that performance Like the idea in this thread and good luck in the next attempt at this :hope

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II Thanks for your thoughts grianaig and DC. I agree, Arsenal will have put a lot of bets down yesterday but onward and upward. Few changes to consider from a rules point of view, that I am introducing for various reasons. This short but ultimately unsuccessful foray has shown me a number of things which as proven have been the downfall of this. I am sure there will be others but the biggest is research. The Arsenal bet came from a complete lack of research and I got what I deserved. So going forward; No specified amount of bets to achieve each stage - Unrealistic expectation to continue to 18 if target has already been reached. Had already approached this dilema and lost focus on the real target in hand. All bets will be with Betdaq and not WBX - More markets are available and better liquidity. Banking after each bet will be introduced - A bit of a safety net but not decided on % or amount yet. If you have any thoughts then please I would love to hear them.

[DC]

Re: Mix N Match II In my opinion banking a % after each bet is no different than banking after x amount of bets. If you are banking a % after every bet AND banking in stages then it will only delay your goal. I would personally stick to your original plan and bank when you reach £15 no matter how many bets it takes you.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II

In my opinion banking a % after each bet is no different than banking after x amount of bets. If you are banking a % after every bet AND banking in stages then it will only delay your goal. I would personally stick to your original plan and bank when you reach £15 no matter how many bets it takes you.

Very good point and not looked really looked at it from that point of view. With that in mind, I will continue as before irrelevant of how many bets it takes.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II [s01B01] Date Krum vs. Sharapova - Sharapova £5.00 @ 1.12 (Betdaq) Shouldnt be a problem for Sharapova.

[Subtlebydesign]

Re: Mix N Match II Well what can I say other than that attempt was short lived. I think for the benefit of future attempts if everyone backs against everything I pick you will end up with some big priced winners. Probably! This is new ground for me failing at the first hurdle. Things can only get better in that case. Really disappointed with Sharapova in that match. Quite simply she didnt turn up. Out played, out served, out thought, useless. Looks like attempt #3 is coming up shortly.