Total Bookings (Spread betting)

[Jenspm]

Right, over the past couple of weeks I've been working on a system for total bookings in a match. It was originally intended for the over/under market, but due to a lack of good historic stats (specifically referee stats) and due to the way the system is designed, it would take A LOT of work to get it to show percentages and thus make it work on fixed odds. So, to save myself many hours of work, I've decided to use it on the spreads instead. I've only tested it a single week-end, in Italy, Spain, England, Scotland and Germany. Only 15 games and far from a good base to review it on, and really not enough to throw into the forums already, but with this international break I can't help it. Paper-trailing by yourself is boring :( After those 15 games, I am -24pts - which is just under a single red card or 2.5 yellows. So, even though it sounds big, it really isn't. What's caused the loss is a couple of extremes on both sides. On average, my variaton from the true booking points is 1.11 - one tenth of a yellow card. This is what makes me optimistic on behalf of the system. My biggest loss so far is -63pts, when a sell at 57 points ended in 7 yellows and two red cards between Fiorentina and Napoli. The biggest win so far is +48pts, when a sell at 58 points ended with 2 yellows between La Coruña and Zaragova. Now, a word of caution: for simplicity's sake, I stake 1pt pr. booking point. This means I get extreme wins and losses, as a single yellow card over the limit means a 10 point loss. So 1pt here isn't the same as a point elsewhere. Furthermore - there will be a lot of bets. The week-end of betting showed 15 bets in 18 games. Lots of bets and ups and downs - fun fun fun. I'll probably get to narrowing the amount of bets down to a few pr. week-end after I figure out what bets yield more etc, but for that I'll at least have to run this for a season. So, some info on the system. - The team stats are tracked back one full season - in the English premier league that would mean the last 38 games. - The referee stats are tracked from the start of the 2008-09 season - Home and away is factored in - How many cards a team draws from the other team is factored, in addition to how many they receive themselves I use these stats to create ratings for all leagues, teams and referees, and use these ratings to find a predicted amount of bookings when two teams meet. I will bet on anything that is over or under the spread. And some rules, - I will only bet on scheduled league matches - Newly promoted or relegated teams will not be bet on - I will win, in the end, somehow :unsure So, let's hope for the best :hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Total Bookings (Spread betting) So, first bet

Date	Lge	Home	Away	Prediction	Trade	Spread
04.09.2010	en1	Milton Keynes Dons	Hartlepool	25,11	Sell	32