What are the chances?

[Lucky P]

Hi, my first post here and just looking for some information which I'm hoping someone can help me with, as there seem to be some knowledgeable people here. Not sure if this is the right thread but couldn't find anything more applicable. Anyway: Last season I bet on Prem-League 2 matches. Betting 1 point on each match. I was doing "draw no bet" bets. Here is what happened: Won 309 Lost 283 Drew 211 +44.47 points profit Average odds 2.65 (33/20 UK, +165USA) Basically I was wondering what are the chances of making that much profit over 803 bets if we assume that the average 2.65 odds were the "true" odds. Put another way - if something truly has a 37.7% chance of happening and you bet on it 803 times how often would you luckily come out 44.47pts or more ahead? I'm not even sure if it's possible to work this out but hopefully it is. If any more info is needed I can probably provide it. Thanks

[relf]

Re: What are the chances? Linking profits to the probabilities is not always straightforward. If the odds are mostly around 2.65, an immediate thing you can check is your strike rate. Your strike rate is 309 out of 803, or 38.5%. If something truly has a 37.7% of happening, with 803 times, it's can still be considered as 'lucky' to achieve 38.5%. The margin of error for 803 is 3.5%, either 37.7% +/- 3.5% = [34.2%, 41.2%]. This means when you bet on something with 37.7% chance for 803 times, it's 'normal' to see a result between 34.2% and 41.2%. 38.5% is well in the region. However, there is a tricky part because you have a 'Draw' option where you stake is returned. I mean, I wouldn't mind if the strike rate is only 20%, whereas the 80% goes to draw, and 0% lost. That's still a handsome profit. ;)