Protecting your hand post flop

[Godders]

Hi all, Most poker authors/experts/players advocate a post flop raise to protect (or define) your hand and give the wrong pot odds to drawing hands. However, I've been thinking about the math, and something to me doesn't add up... If your opponent bets the size of the pot, then it's costing you half the pot to call. If you win the hand there and then, you'll get 2 x your stake (i.e. the pot after his raise), plus your original stake (that you called with) back. This to me suggests the pot odds are 3/1, or 33%. If you're on a flush draw, then your 9 outs means that you'll hit approx 36% of the time on the next 2 cards. An open ended straight draw will hit 32% of the time. The only conclusion that I can draw from this is that the correct mathematical play is to always call any bet that's pot sized or less on the flop when you have an open-ended straight draw or better. The only draws that would be forced to fold to a C-bet would be a gutshot straight/backdoor straight/flush draws. Is this correct? Or am I missing something? Cheers Godders

[SteveO]

Re: Protecting your hand post flop Odds of 33% equates to 2/1and not 3/1 mate:ok

[PGremlin]

Re: Protecting your hand post flop You only get to see the turn card, don't forget that you probably have to pay for the river card too. :ok

[PGremlin]

Re: Protecting your hand post flop 37-9, since there are 37 cards that will "miss" you, and 9 that will give you the flush --> 19.565% chance you will hit a flush on the turn.

[PGremlin]

Re: Protecting your hand post flop There is also implied odds, and Expected value ("EV") that are important basis math concepts in poker. Next to the maths start the "psychological" aspects of poker. There is no superior tactic that always works in poker. You need to stay unpredictable and have the ability to change gears and adapt to every situation. If you always protect your hand every time post flop the other players will notice. You'll become predictable, and some will try to outplay you with a check-raise, since they know you'll always bet postflop...

[ojideagu]

Re: Protecting your hand post flop

The only draws that would be forced to fold to a C-bet would be a gutshot straight/backdoor straight/flush draws.

Those are the exact type of hands you want to call Cbets with when floating, if you think there is a chance your opponent might not fire another Continuation bet on the turn. Many players fire one Cbet and give up if called. It's far better then floating with nothing. Also the implied odds of calling with these draws can be massive as they are very well hidden.