Scavenged Systems Portfolio

[Cowan]

I am going to trial my system here for a month (I am not backing these yet). Long and detailed post. Skip to end for the Summary. Background I have been betting systems for 2 years now. I initially started following tipsters that were reviewed by SBC. I did find some gems but most tipsters could not justify the hype and subscription costs. I quickly realised I would have to create a system of my own! I joined Horseracebase a year ago. I have spent many hours trawling through the fantastic database there. But trying to create systems is difficult and you need to start with an idea and build it up from there. Starting from scratch often leads to nothing, or even worse, backfitting! To find inspiration I searched through the posts of most of the UKs main betting forums. I found systems that people had thought of or had trialled and given up on. I ran all the system rules through HRB. Many were unsound and unprofitable. Some were profitable but to a low ROI. Almost none were sound. I kept a hold of the systems which had a a large number of bets and a posative ROI. I spent many hours trying to improve the criteria. Eventually I found about 10 system criteria which had the most widespread impact on a horses chance of winning a race. These criteria have held up for thousands of selections over 7 years so I feel confident I'm on the right path. The Portfolio The result of all this is 8 seperate systems. More are on trial and the total number may reach 10-12. I have just finished tweaking all the systems to maximise Number Of Bets, Strike Rate (SR), Points Profit, and Return On Investment (ROI). Selections will be at the top end of the market since these horses have a very good chance of winning their races. This should keep losing runs low. Selections will be backed to 1pt level stakes. Since the systems are similar it will be common that a selection will be identified by multiple systems. A multiple qualifier (MQ) will be backed at 1pt for every system which selects it. This will lead to stakes between 1-8pts. Historically this method is profitable. Bank size has been worked out by using 'Maximum Losing Run in a Million Bets' (MLR10^6) and 'Maximum Monthly Bank Loss' (MMBL). These two methods analyse the performance of each system to arrive at the bank size. Both methods are in agreement that the bank should be 50-70 pts. I'm going to go with a 50pts Bank. Historical Results (7.5 years) Bets: 8363 Wins: 2520 SR: 30.13% Profit (SP): 1688 pts ROI: 20.19% Points Profit Per Year To SP 2010 (to July): 139.14 2009: 247.65 2008: 182.15 2007: 166.47 2006: 241.15 2005: 151.84 2004: 345.94 2003: 214.11 Summary This is a long post so here are the details you need to know. Bets per month: 90 Strike Rate: 30% Profit Per Month (SP): 20 pts ROI (SP): 20% Required Bank: 50 pts Staking will be 1pt level stakes in theory although some selections will have stakes up to about 5pts in rare circumstances. I will be posting selections using BOG. Lets hope it goes well :hope Ian

[Cowan]

Re: Scavenged Systems Portfolio Friday Ling 1510 Fantasy Fighter 3/1 Brig 1530 Timeteam 9/2 Newm 1810 Painters Easel 7/1 WON Wexf 1825 Matchbook (2pts) 6/1 +3pts