Betting pyschology any advice?

[Gooner80]

I have been researching many systems, plenty of statistics and paper traded for about 10 months now. What I have learnt is that I am a super punter on paper I have made 100s and 1000s BUT as soon as I bet even relatively small stakes emotion kicks in. I either go on a really good run and get carried away, or I start losing and stop relying on the statistics that will eventually turn back my way. so for example if I trade on bet fair and things aren't going my way I get over cautious because the emotional sense is what kills me, I have my numbers and systems down to a T and on paper I could make a decent living from this or at least a very good second income. has any one got a psychological tips on dealing with this problem because I think this is the biggest hinderence and is what makes 95% of gamblers lose money any help would be much appreciated

[carlos50]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? What makes 95% of gamblers loose is the bookmakers overround. Your problems sound similar to otherwise winning pokerplayers. Its very normal to get overcautios or aggressive if winning or loosing. I would try to study tilt control and general psychology in poker. There are several books on the subject. The best trick imo is to make sure the amounts don't matter to you. Betting out of your comfort zone is a path to disaster. If you wanna bet more than you can handle, build it up slowly until your comfort zone is higher. Second is not to focus on winning or loosing the bet. Focus on making value bets, then you will win in the end. Realisticly you will make somewhere between 0-10%, focus on that. If there is a 5% edge it doesnt really matter wether the bet wins or loose. Its like getting 6/5 on a coin flip, it is a good bet regardless of the outcome of the actual coinflip. And if winning you wouldn't / shouldnt think of it as a good bet because you won, but because you got good odds. Furthermore a solid staking plan/ bankroll management is necessary, so you dont have to worry about going broke. And last but not least it is very important to be aware which mistakes you are likely to make. Be aware of when the mistakes are sneaking in, and try to stop them in the process. Havent got a magic trick for that, sorry :D

[Silverstone]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? If you want to take punting seriously, then you should try to take all emotion and adrenaline out of the equation. If it's a sport that you bet on, try not to watch the race/game/match live. If possible, maybe you could even place your bets at the start of the day, and then you would be free to go about your day/night, and just check back later on to find out your results. Maybe you could work out how much you are going to bet on each selection ahead of time, so that you won't make the mistake of chasing losses, or miss out by not having bet how much you had intended on the winner. When I bet, I want my mind focussed solely on getting the best possible price for my selection and don't want to be distracted by anything else. I bet on horse racing, yet I never go to the track or watch the races, because I don't want any distraction or emotion to influence my punting. If you want to be a serious punter you must treat punting as business and not pleasure. Good luck.

[muppet77]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Write down the rules to the system and stick to them.

[Gooner80]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Thanks guys some useful tips, some stuff I haven't thought of. I have put in about 28,000 hours of work over the past year, but the emotional side of staying ice cool is going to be my biggest battle. Most people will struggle with the emotional side if they get say 10 loses in a row even if you have the bank roll to cope with it,I plan on using a 1% staking plan btw. I guess thats why a lot of punters dont use cash amounts when refering to how much they are staking, so if you lose points/ units its not the same emotional intensity as losing cold hard cash. I value your opinions and I am working hard on the psychology

[Jk]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Just remember a good bet is a good bet before the event has even started, the result should be irrelevent to your next bet.

[jackmac]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Some general advice :ok "Understand the game. Many sports betting enthusiasts accumulate losses through a simple lack of understanding of the events they participate in. Stick to sports you know and the risks can be more easily controlled. Bet according to your bankroll. There is an old adage relating to gambling that says you should never bet more than you can afford to lose and this remains as the best possible advice. External financial pressures will not help you make better betting decisions. In fact, the opposite. Do not chase your losses. Reckless betting will only result in further losses. Step out of the bookies or casino and go home, or log off on the internet. Get a good nights sleep. Tomorrow may bring you a change of luck. Always be happy with any win you achieve and don't be tempted to go out and chase bigger profits. Enjoy the moment and don't risk spoiling it. Avoid betting after alcohol consumption, a sleepless night or a busy week at work. Never bet compulsively. All wagers should be carefully considered and placed in full confidence."

[ELO Evangelist]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? The fact that you know the importance of betting psychology puts you ahead of the game because IMO 99% of punters do not know such a thing even exists.

[Shinigami]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? impose binary criteria filters in your excel spreadsheet like =IF(X

[muppet77]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Find a niche market that you can do more hw than the Bookies. Bookies will have the 1x2 market sewn up for the premiership in the long run for the majority of Punters as this is their main market. They put the majority of their football time here because they have to. I focus on corners. Look at more obscure markets and become an expert by observing and looking for slight changes in patterns that the Bookies do not have the time nor incling to spot. eg red and yellow cards, injury time, fouls, throw ins, substitutions, attendance (england hungary on wed!). Look at lower leagues in the world and uk. Collect as much data as you can. If it is easy to collect, then don't bother, the Bookies will probably have it......... Build up a massive database that will be useful to you and probably no one else will have.

[Hoggy]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice?

Thanks guys some useful tips, some stuff I haven't thought of. I have put in about 28,000 hours of work over the past year, but the emotional side of staying ice cool is going to be my biggest battle. Most people will struggle with the emotional side if they get say 10 loses in a row even if you have the bank roll to cope with it,I plan on using a 1% staking plan btw. I guess thats why a lot of punters dont use cash amounts when refering to how much they are staking, so if you lose points/ units its not the same emotional intensity as losing cold hard cash. I value your opinions and I am working hard on the psychology

You've done well to fit that many hours in a year! Not much sleep? :drums

[muppet77]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? Collect masses of data. Then test an idea. Don't keep tweaking coefficients and variables until you get a profit. That will never work in the long run, Sit down and write down some ideas. The rational is very important. If you can't explain a pattern or idea then it probably isn't sustainable. Use a data set that you have never used or trained your model on to test your idea further. If it works, paper test for a significant amount and then go live.

[Gooner80]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice?

You've done well to fit that many hours in a year! Not much sleep? :drums

Not much sleep I have burnt out 3 calculators lost count of the number of pens I have been through I have come up with about 20 different systems tested them over and over most have failed The way I see it like some of you have pointed out I need to know more about a particular market than the bookie esp with a 6%-10% overround to contain with; with my advantage being the bookie has to bet on everything. I have started looking into stock market trading for help on the psychological aspects. I consider myself an investor rather than a gambler and it is all about value and probability with me thanks for the post guys this is truly a great site

[Quercus]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice?

Write down the rules to the system and stick to them.

That's a very useful advice, btw. Very simple yet very hard to stick to. I lost nearly all my bank during the WC because I didn't follow it. I played with BetFair trying to lay a result at lower coef and than to back it at higher. In almost every game I had opportunities to do that and win exactly the ammount I had planned, but then I would decide to wait more, and lost money.

[1907zico]

Re: Betting pyschology any advice? What I like with the investors out the who hire successful tipsters is that you only bet with units for them. 1-10/10 staking or flat staking and whenever you lose you only see a freaking unit amount, lets say -3 units. This wont influence you as much as if you knew how much money actually is placed on it. It puts off pressure a bit, you can stay more cool and dont lose objectivity. It is the bookies main income source, the fact that people get influenced when placing the real cash on events, get pissed when they lose due to a late goal, losing some edge whilst trading just because of a crazy unexpected red card whatever. People usually cannot trade off with a loss here, or cannot accept the losing bet in such an undeserved way. Either they will look for another bet to compensate their bets, they will stake more on the next match etc. Altough it is proven that this kind of behaviour can whipe out your whole profit made in the past weeks. Its just sad to see this. What I can advice is to record the bets (f.e. Excel) but putting your unit size on it rather than the sums you place. Of course you will still know the sums you place as you bet yourself, hence looking only to this spreadsheet over time will give you less pressure. Some words about staking itself: I always hear that people say whatever your current results are, your staking must be indepentent of it. If your bets are based on a system, I agree - but whenever you place bets indepentent of systems - by other factors where you still have to adjust the staking then you can run much better to bet more careful if you feel like you hit a bad period, but also be careful when you created some nice profit size to not whipe the profit out. In theory this would only end up in losing some more profit when your bets where still winning bets. Maybe yes, but its nice that people never calculate in the possible influence on the bettor himself. Avoiding to lose a +25 unit profit with three 8 units bets who all lose will also mean to avoid being pissed, avoid losing all profit. All aspect which -can- influence you. Staking a bit more careful in such cases can help, allthough as I said many guys share the opinion that if the bet is a 8 unit bet you should bet it. Nice theory. :ok