davidc Posted August 1, 2010 Share Posted August 1, 2010 I previously ran a system similar to this here which fizzled out with a loss. This updated system uses slightly different parameters which I have been using since the beginning of 2010 and this has given a yield of over 6% after 270 completed bets, excluding ties. Basic rules: At exchanges when back odds for the favourite are between approximately 1.55 and 1.67 lay AH -1 or back away AH +1 at best possible price. Back odds must be 'tight' at the exchange i.e. only 1 or 2 points difference between the back and lay odds. Do not bet on any type of cup game, playoff or friendly matches. Most bets will be lays with either Betdaq or Betfair and any prices which I quote will be the equivalent back price, (e.g lay odds 2.2 = approximate back odds 1.833) and will already have commission deducted. The starting bank will be 1000 points and all bets will be 10 points risk. Will post any bets as soon as practically possible. Comments, suggestions and advice are welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 6, 2010 Author Share Posted August 6, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 3 bets for tonight: Rapid Bucharest v Otelul Galati - LAY Rapid Bucharest -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.766 Bray v Sligo Rovers - BACK Bray +1 @ 1.82 Cork City v Wexford Youths - BACK Wexford Youths +1 @ 1.833 All bets risk £10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 6, 2010 Author Share Posted August 6, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Tonights results: Rapid Bucharest v Otelul Galati - LAY Rapid Bucharest -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.766 WON Bray v Sligo Rovers - BACK Bray +1 @ 1.82 LOST Cork City v Wexford Youths - BACK Wexford Youths +1 @ 1.833 TIED 1 bet for overnight Friday/Saturday: America Mineiro v Duque de Caxias - BACK Duque de Caxias +1 @ 1.87 Full stats will be updated after around 10 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 7, 2010 Author Share Posted August 7, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 1 result from last night: America Mineiro v Duque de Caxias - BACK Duque de Caxias +1 @ 1.87 TIED 4 bets for today: Sheffield Wed v Dagenham & Redbridge - LAY Sheffield Wed -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.891 Heracles v Willem II - LAY Heracles -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.98 Clyde v Stranraer - BACK Stranraer +1 @ 1.735 Bellinzona v Basel - LAY Basel -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.126 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 7, 2010 Author Share Posted August 7, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 3 more bets for today and overnight: Varteks Varazdin v Dinamo Zagreb - BACK Varteks Varazdin +1 @ 2.2 Lyon v Monaco LAY Lyon -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.032 Sao Caetano v Guaratingueta - BACK Guaratingueta +1 @ 1.806 Please note that both the Sheffield Wed game (earlier) and the Lyon game each have liability of £9.99. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 8, 2010 Author Share Posted August 8, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 3 results from yesterday and overnight: Varteks Varazdin v Dinamo Zagreb - BACK Varteks Varazdin +1 @ 2.2 WON Lyon v Monaco - LAY Lyon -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.032 WON Sao Caetano v Guaratingueta - BACK Guaratingueta +1 @ 1.806 LOST 6 bets for today: Kalmar v Trelleborgs - BACK Trelleborgs +1 @ 1.8 Paksi v Debrecin - BACK Paksi +1 @ 1.847 Assyriska v Brage - LAY Assyriska -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.875 Stabæk v Strømsgodset - LAY Stabæk -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.065 Stjarnan v Selfoss - BACK Selfoss +1 @ 1.917 Cruzeiro v Gremio - LAY Cruzeiro -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.852 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 8, 2010 Author Share Posted August 8, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 1 more for today: Wisla Krakow v Arka Gdynia - BACK Arka Gdynia +1 @ 1.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 9, 2010 Author Share Posted August 9, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Updated results: Sheffield Wed v Dagenham & Redbridge - LAY Sheffield Wed -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.891 LOST Heracles v Willem II - LAY Heracles -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.98 LOST Clyde v Stranraer - BACK Stranraer +1 @ 1.735 WON Bellinzona v Basel - LAY Basel -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.126 WON Kalmar v Trelleborgs - BACK Trelleborgs +1 @ 1.8 TIED Paksi v Debrecin - BACK Paksi +1 @ 1.847 WON Assyriska v Brage - LAY Assyriska -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.875 TIED Stabæk v Strømsgodset - LAY Stabæk -1 @ equivalent back odds of 2.065 WON Stjarnan v Selfoss - BACK Selfoss +1 @ 1.917 TIED Cruzeiro v Gremio - LAY Cruzeiro -1 @ equivalent back odds of 1.852 WON Wisla Krakow v Arka Gdynia - BACK Arka Gdynia +1 @ 1.85 TIED Updated stats: Bets: 18 Won: 8 Tied: 6 Lost: 4 Total Staked £119.97 (excludes ties) Total Returned £156.19 Profit £36.22 Yield 30.19% From now on and to make life simpler all bets will be shown as back bets, with any lays converted to back odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 11, 2010 Author Share Posted August 11, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 1 overnight bet: New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC - Back Toronto FC +1 @ 1.791 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 13, 2010 Author Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 1 result to update: New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC - Back Toronto FC +1 @ 1.791 TIED 3 bets for tonight: Zalaegerszeg v Lombard-Pápa - BACK Lombard-Pápa +1 @ 1.78 Waterford United v Wexford Youths - BACK Wexford Youths +1 @ 1.925 Drogheda Utd v Shamrock Rovers - BACK Drogheda Utd +1 @ 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 13, 2010 Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Decent returns! Looking forward to a good run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 13, 2010 Author Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System So far so good, skycity. Hopefully the profits can be sustained long term but I expect the yield to drop from the current high point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 13, 2010 Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Zalaegerszeg v Lombard-Pápa - BACK Lombard-Pápa +1 @ 1.78 ABANDONED ie. TIE Waterford United v Wexford Youths - BACK Wexford Youths +1 @ 1.925 1-0 TIE Drogheda Utd v Shamrock Rovers - BACK Drogheda Utd +1 @ 2.0 0-2 LOSE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 13, 2010 Author Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 3 results from tonight: Zalaegerszeg v Lombard-Pápa - BACK Lombard-Pápa +1 @ 1.78 VOID - match abandoned after 60 minutes. This bet will not be recorded in the stats. Waterford United v Wexford Youths - BACK Wexford Youths +1 @ 1.925 TIED Drogheda Utd v Shamrock Rovers - BACK Drogheda Utd +1 @ 2.0 LOST 2 bets (so far) for tomorrow: Zenit St. Petersburg v Dinamo Moscow - BACK Dinamo Moscow +1 @ 1.719 Mansfield v Forest Green Rovers - BACK Forest Green Rovers +1 @ 1.784 (this bet is currently unmatched and I may need to adjust the price later) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 13, 2010 Author Share Posted August 13, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System You beat me to it skycity :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 14, 2010 Author Share Posted August 14, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Updated price for below match: Mansfield v Forest Green Rovers - BACK Forest Green Rovers +1 @ 1.752 1 more bet (kicks off in 15 mins) Copenhagen v Nordsjaelland - BACK Nordsjaelland +1 @ 2.043 There will probably be more later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 14, 2010 Author Share Posted August 14, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Here are the rest of todays bets: Crusaders v Lisburn Distillery - BACK Lisburn Distillery +1 @ 1.917 Glentoran v Coleraine - BACK Coleraine +1 @1.855 Dukla Banská Bystrica v ViOn Zlaté Moravce - BACK ViOn Zlaté Moravce +1 @ 1.862 Unirea Urziceni v Universitatea Cluj - BACK Universitatea Cluj +1 @ 1.88 Standard Liege v Lokeren - BACK Lokeren +1 @ 1.997 Lech Poznan v Arka Gdynia - BACK Arka Gdynia +1 @2.054 Spartak Nalchik v Sibir Novosibirsk - BACK Sibir Novosibirsk +1 @ 1.917 Vaslui v Brasov - BACK Brasov +1 @1.769 AZ Alkmaar v Groningen - BACK Groningen +1 @ 1.794 Bucaspor v Besiktas - BACK Bucaspor +1 @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 14, 2010 Author Share Posted August 14, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 2 more bets, 1 starting shortly and 1 overnight: Ponte Preta v Duque de Caxias - BACK Duque de Caxias +1 @ 2.03 Santos Laguna v Jaguares - BACK Jaguares +1 @ 1.943 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 15, 2010 Author Share Posted August 15, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Yesterdays results: Mansfield v Forest Green Rovers - BACK Forest Green Rovers +1 @ 1.752 LOST Copenhagen v Nordsjaelland - BACK Nordsjaelland +1 @ 2.043 LOST Crusaders v Lisburn Distillery - BACK Lisburn Distillery +1 @ 1.917 TIED Glentoran v Coleraine - BACK Coleraine +1 @1.855 LOST Dukla Banská Bystrica v ViOn Zlaté Moravce - BACK ViOn Zlaté Moravce +1 @ 1.862 WON Unirea Urziceni v Universitatea Cluj - BACK Universitatea Cluj +1 @ 1.88 WON Standard Liege v Lokeren - BACK Lokeren +1 @ 1.997 WON Lech Poznan v Arka Gdynia - BACK Arka Gdynia +1 @2.054 WON Spartak Nalchik v Sibir Novosibirsk - BACK Sibir Novosibirsk +1 @ 1.917 LOST Vaslui v Brasov - BACK Brasov +1 @1.769 TIED AZ Alkmaar v Groningen - BACK Groningen +1 @ 1.794 WON Bucaspor v Besiktas - BACK Bucaspor +1 @ 2.02 TIED Ponte Preta v Duque de Caxias - BACK Duque de Caxias +1 @ 2.03 TIED Santos Laguna v Jaguares - BACK Jaguares +1 @ 1.943 TIED Todays bets: Skive v Hobro - BACK Hobro +1 @ 1.813 Jablonec v Bohemians 1905 - BACK Bohemians 1905 +1 @ 1.685 Randers v Lyngby - BACK Lyngby +1 @ 1.81 Viktoria Plzen v Slovacko - BACK Slovacko +1 @ 1.88 Arsenal Kyiv v Volyn Lutsk - BACK Volyn Lutsk +1 @ 1.877 Brondby v Esbjerg - BACK Esbjerg +1 @ 2.04 Nybergsund v Tromsdalen - BACK Tromsdalen +1 @ 1.971 Syrianska v Falkenbergs - BACK Falkenbergs +1 @ 1.775 Fluminense v Internacional - BACK Internacional +1 @ 1.862 Estudiantes v Quilmes - BACK Quilmes +1 @ 1.909 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 15, 2010 Author Share Posted August 15, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Missed this result: Zenit St. Petersburg v Dinamo Moscow - BACK Dinamo Moscow +1 @ 1.719 WON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 16, 2010 Author Share Posted August 16, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 1 bet for tonight (6:30 k.o.): Mariehamn v Oulu - BACK Oulu +1 @ 1.784 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 16, 2010 Author Share Posted August 16, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Bit of a disaster on Sunday: Skive v Hobro - BACK Hobro +1 @ 1.813 LOST Jablonec v Bohemians 1905 - BACK Bohemians 1905 +1 @ 1.685 LOST Randers v Lyngby - BACK Lyngby +1 @ 1.81 TIED Viktoria Plzen v Slovacko - BACK Slovacko +1 @ 1.88 LOST Arsenal Kyiv v Volyn Lutsk - BACK Volyn Lutsk +1 @ 1.877 WON Brondby v Esbjerg - BACK Esbjerg +1 @ 2.04 WON Nybergsund v Tromsdalen - BACK Tromsdalen +1 @ 1.971 TIED Syrianska v Falkenbergs - BACK Falkenbergs +1 @ 1.775 LOST Fluminense v Internacional - BACK Internacional +1 @ 1.862 LOST Estudiantes v Quilmes - BACK Quilmes +1 @ 1.909 LOST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 16, 2010 Author Share Posted August 16, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Tonights result: Mariehamn v Oulu - BACK Oulu +1 @ 1.784 WON Updated stats: Bets: 48 Won: 17 Tied: 16 Lost: 15 Total Staked £319.97 (excludes ties) Total Returned £326.27 Profit £6.30 Yield 1.97% Just staying in positive figures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren1969 Posted August 17, 2010 Share Posted August 17, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System hi davidc..nice profit so far. i got a bit confused while reading your earlier posts...i'm not really good at the back & lay...through my experience, the common 1x2 odds for AH -1 is around 1.45 - 1.60. so i'm interested in how u make your picks.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 17, 2010 Author Share Posted August 17, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System hi davidc..nice profit so far. i got a bit confused while reading your earlier posts...i'm not really good at the back & lay...through my experience, the common 1x2 odds for AH -1 is around 1.45 - 1.60. so i'm interested in how u make your picks.. Hi ren1969, just managing to stay in profit! The way I select teams is pretty simple. Where the favourite is priced at approximately between 1.55 and 1.67 at the exchanges (I mostly use Betfair to check as there is more liquidity) I either lay this team -1 asian handicap or back the opposition +1 asian handicap. Betfair typically offer 3 different asian handicaps for this price range and one of these is usually -1. Betdaq do not offer as many but currently have 2% commission for asian handicaps, which is useful providing there is enough liquidity. Pinnacle (and some other bookies) also offer several different handicaps for a large number of leagues and this is very useful for this system. I recently decided that it as easier to post all picks as backing the underdog +1AH rather than posting some bets as lay the favourite -1AH and converting the odds to the equivalent back odds. Hope this is clear - if not please let me know. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren1969 Posted August 17, 2010 Share Posted August 17, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System hi davidc, so what you are saying is "if the favorites 1x2 odds is between 1.55 - 1.67, then the chances of the favorites clearing AH -1 goal is not good..so we should back the underdogs"...am i wrong ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 18, 2010 Author Share Posted August 18, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System hi davidc' date=' so what you are saying is "if the favorites 1x2 odds is between 1.55 - 1.67, then the chances of the favorites clearing AH -1 goal is not good..so we should back the underdogs"...am i wrong ?[/quote'] That sums it up pretty well with the proviso that the underdog should be backed +1 AH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 19, 2010 Author Share Posted August 19, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Fridays bets: Polonia Warszawa v Zaglebie Lubin - BACK Zaglebie Lubin +1 @ 1.826 Roskilde v AGF Aarhus - BACK Roskilde +1 @ 2.07 Orgryte v Osters - BACK Osters +1 1.775 Rapid Bucharest v Gloria Bistrita - BACK Gloria Bistrita +1 @ 1.8 Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - BACK Wolfsburg +1 @ 1.787 Atalanta v Vicenza - BACK Vicenza +1 @ 1.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 20, 2010 Share Posted August 20, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Fridays bets: Polonia Warszawa v Zaglebie Lubin - BACK Zaglebie Lubin +1 @ 1.826 2-1 TIE Roskilde v AGF Aarhus - BACK Roskilde +1 @ 2.07 0-2 LOST Orgryte v Osters - BACK Osters +1 1.775 2-0 LOST Rapid Bucharest v Gloria Bistrita - BACK Gloria Bistrita +1 @ 1.8 2-0 LOST Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - BACK Wolfsburg +1 @ 1.787 Atalanta v Vicenza - BACK Vicenza +1 @ 1.82 BAYERN running 1-0; atalanta running 2-0 at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 21, 2010 Author Share Posted August 21, 2010 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Bit of a disaster yesterday with 4 losers - will update results later. Todays bets: Hobro v Vejle - BACK Hobro +1 @ 1.893 PK-35 v Hämeenlinna - BACK Hämeenlinna +1 @ 1.82 Grimsby v Hayes & Yeading - BACK Hayes & Yeading +1 @ 1.943 Livingston v Airdrie - BACK Airdrie +1 @ 1.893 Slovan Liberec v Marila PrÃbram - BACK Marila PrÃbram +1 @ 1.826 Heres hoping for a better set of results! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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