In a maiden again?

[MrMick]

Ok, here's a system that might at first appear somewhat dodgy, but has over the years provided me with the occasional decent pay out. I fully admit to having no clue how it would do over the long term but I thought I'd find out by doing it here so we can see. A couple of years ago I noticed that a massive priced horse was often getting placed, and occasionally was winning some maiden races. When I began to look into it a little more I started to notice a kind of trend, which I've tried to justify to myself umpteen times without any real logic or success. I'll share it with you now and any comments are more than welcome. I guess if I'm honest I'm not really expecting this system to make a long term profit, but it will be interesting to see just how it does and how often we land a big-priced placed or winning horse. Here is the staking plan I'll apply to it and then I'll tell you how the system selects the horses: As maiden races usually pay 1/5th the odds, I'll go for 1 point win at 9/2 and shorter (no odds-on) and 1/2 point each-way for 5/1 and bigger. System: All maiden races can be considered. The idea is to look at how many times each runner has raced this year. Past seasons DO NOT COUNT - it is only the current year's runs. To make this more understandable I'll demonstrate using the 2.05 Pontefract today, below: Form: Horse: 2 Major Muscari - Flash City 97 Piceno 45U So Is She - New Planet - Mr Jo Jo - Watts Up Son 04 Capall Dorcha 5507 Ever Roses As this is for 2-year-old there is no form or runs to use from last year anyway. In this example Ever Roses would be the selection because the rules of the system are simply this: choose the horse that has run the most times provided it is over three runs. Simple isn't it? It's the same for maiden races for three-year-olds and upwards so long as the horse selected has the most races THIS season and DID NOT run the year before. Once I start putting the runners up, you'll soon get the idea of how selections are chosen. The logic behind this system I've tried to justify, as said earlier but please feel free to add any comments. We all know that after three runs each horse is allotted a handicap mark. The weird thing about the system is that most of the horses selected have the kind of handicap marks that make them significantly worse off in these maiden races than what they would be in a handicap - but I find myself wondering why then, is the trainer still running it? Maybe, many horses are simply running in these races just to get a handicap mark and thus, might be expected to run down the field. An example of this can be seen quite clearly in Sir Mark Prescott's runners. Three runs down the field in maiden races over inadequate trips, only to show vast improvement the following year over longer trips; we've all seen just this year how many of these types he's had win recently. Horses selected by the system however, are not running to get a mark - they already have it, and maybe, just maybe, the trainer thinks that if some of the other runners are expected to improve for the run, or might just finish down the field, then there's place money - at least - to be picked up. Of course it could just be that there are no other suitable races to run these horses in but I like to think positively and will stick to the theory that the trainers know exactly what they're doing by trying to pick-up place money at least. Starting with a bank of 100 points we'll start today and see how we go for a few weeks. Pontefract 2.05 Ever Roses 1/2 point each-way 80/1 (sportingbet)

[Spooner]

Re: In a maiden again? GL Mick, makes sense what you're saying, I like it.:clap